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Posts Tagged ‘Doug Gorman’

ObamaCare and Manufactured Housing, Take Two

December 19th, 2013 No comments

In Obamacare, a Different Perspective, a well meaning Texas retailer advances his speculation that through the wonder that is Obamacare, fewer of our housing prospects will be forced into medical bankruptcy and a typical manufactured home retailer or stick built homebuilder might enjoy an increase of five or six sales per year. I believe our Texas retailer is well meaning with his speculation but several factors are not included in observation.

First: Having Obamacare does not mean you will be free from a risk of medical bankruptcy. Given the higher premiums being forced onto unwilling buyers along with massive deductibles, the risk of bankruptcy has in all likelihood been increased. Although we encounter very few medial bankruptcies, most of the ones I have encountered are able to find a path to home ownership because the medical burdens of the past are behind them. Under Obamacare the misleading information that premiums would drop has proven to be one more burden on the current administration as it proves to be untrue.

Second: Employers have laid off workers, decided to cancel expansion plans that would have required new workers and cut back the hours of existing workers due to the regulatory burden of complying with Obamacare. I have lost far more sales in 2013 due to these factors than a hypothetical increase in sales might have brought about had Obamacare been in place at the first of the year. We can get the bankrupt prospect past that event in their life and onto a path to homeownership. I can’t say the same for a client whose hours have been significantly reduced to the point of not budgeting for a reasonable house payment or a client who has lost their job.

Third: This same client will now be forced to purchase a federally mandated level of coverage which is an even greater drain on his discretionary income. Lower discretionary income means a lower likelihood of qualifying for the loan.

Fewer jobs, lower income, part time jobs, higher outgo, lower discretionary income will most likely not add up to an increase in business for the housing sector whether it be site built or factory built. Off topic, but to this mix you can add the new Qualifying Mortgage and other Dodd-Frank rules that will further erode sales. We need to dig in and adapt the best we can to all the changing rules that are headed our way. I respectively suggest that Obamacare will not be a boon to sales as was suggested.

doug-gorman.jpgRespectively,
Doug Gorman
Home Mart
Tulsa, OK

Marking Our Growth Going Into DC

February 20th, 2013 No comments

deanna-fields-mhao-industry-voices-mhpronews-com-100x100-It’s been awhile since I played with the numbers…and it’s been awhile since we’ve seen an increase in shipments.5 years to be exact. So I thought you might like a copy of “Statistically Speaking 2012.” 

MHAO's Director and MHI Certified Representative Doug Gorman from Home-Mart, Inc., in Tulsa and I are headed to D.C. next week to champion our industry in Oklahoma and to rally support from our Congressmen and Senators for some relief on the Dodd-Frank, energy credits, etc., thought I better bring some fresh data!

Oklahoma is currently number 8 in the nation in manufactured home shipments. Here is what our association will be presenting as part of our meeting with legislators.

See this handout full size by downloading the PDF at this link here. ##

 

Deanna Fields
Executive Director
MHAO = Manufactured Housing Association of Oklahoma

UN Agenda 21 and Why It Matters to the Manufactured Housing Industry

September 9th, 2012 7 comments

by Doug Gorman

Conspiracy theories are not hard to find or hard to generate. With that backdrop, the question can be posed, "What is the United Nation's Agenda 21 and how does it affect our industry?” Let it be said, if you liked Dodd-Frank, you'll love Agenda 21. We are learning that red flags need to come up when we hear certain terms such as "fair share" and "social justice" tossed about casually. The red flag phrase emanating from Agenda 21 is "sustainable development."

Unfortunately, Agenda 21 was embraced by George H.W. Bush at the U.N.'s Earth Summit in 1992. Fully embraced and implemented, Agenda 21 would oppose private ownership of land and funnel middle class Americans into high rise complexes in cities. The radical left wing discovered they can use the environment as their weapon of choice to wage war against the founding principles of our country which were embedded in our constitution by the brilliant founders of our country.

Andrew Phillips recently published the following concerning Agenda 21:

"Maurice Strong was the Secretary General at this conference. He stated that “Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, home and work air conditioning, and suburban housing are not sustainable.” Agenda 21 is all about environmental control. It seeks to ration natural resources in the same way that Obamacare will ration healthcare. Energy will be rationed based on the assumption that our government owns all resources including food, water and land. Local Agenda 21 initiatives will mandate certain appliances and outlaw others based on energy consumption, and your energy consumption will be monitored so that you don’t “go over your limit.” Homes and buildings will have to be built or rebuilt to meet new “green” building codes or else face hefty fines. It seeks to transition citizens away from rural areas and into cities. It wants to “wean” people off private vehicles (because of “dirty” fossil fuels) and have them start using public transportation like high-speed rail. Outdoor recreational activities will be restricted because those practices are not “sustainable.”

“Social justice” means the abolition of private property. Here’s an excerpt from a report published at the U.N.’s Habitat I Conference in 1976:

“Land…cannot be treated as an ordinary asset, controlled by individuals and subject to the pressures and inefficiencies of the market. Private land ownership is also a principal instrument of accumulation and concentration of wealth and therefore contributes to social injustice; if unchecked, it may become a major obstacle in the planning and implementation of development schemes. The provision of decent dwellings and healthy conditions for the people can only be achieved if land is used in the interest of  society as a whole.”

It’s not fair that individuals own land or property. What will make it fair is if it is collectively owned. The United Nations wants to mandate global communism. They just don’t call it that. They call it “social justice.” And they’re going to execute “social justice” through “sustainable development.”

These things are already happening in our own country. Over 600 cities and counties across the U.S. have become members of ICLEI (International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives), “an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organizations who have made a commitment to sustainable development.” Check here to see if your town, city or county is a member.

Participating in a UN advocated planning process would very likely bring out many of the conspiracy-fixated groups and individuals in our society…This segment of our society who fear ‘one-world government’ and a UN invasion of the United States through which our individual freedom would be stripped away would actively work to defeat any elected official who joined ‘the conspiracy’ by undertaking LA21. So we call our process something else, such as comprehensive planning, growth management or smart growth.

In 1993, a year after Bush Sr. signed the Agenda 21 protocol, President Clinton issued an executive order that created the PCSD (President’s Council on Sustainable Development). This group made Agenda 21 public policy and sought to implement its goals at the local level through ICLEI. J. Gary Lawrence was an adviser to this council. He advised that people should not know about Agenda 21 because if they knew about it, they would be opposed to it:

And this is why we don’t ever hear about it. They control the language in media. Their agenda is shrouded in vague terms that could mean anything, and people are naive enough to give them the benefit of the doubt. Since the creation of Clinton’s PCSD, Obama has issued executive orders creating similar and more expansive “councils” that work to further the U.N.’s agenda.

Tom Madrecki is a spokesman for Smart Growth America, another one of those Agenda 21 type organizations. He doesn’t like the fact that Agenda 21 is in the new Republican platform. He said, “The fact that it’s in the platform gives credence to something that just shouldn’t get any.” He’s concerned that such a mainstream position opposing Agenda 21 will only serve to stir dissent and will “continue halting beneficial conversations about community planning.” There’s another one of those buzz phrases…”community planning.”

It’s great that the Republican Party has officially taken a stand against the United Nations and its global communist agenda. I hope it stays in their platform, and I hope Romney and other elected Republicans will work tirelessly to expose the U.N. for what they really are and to extricate the U.S. from the organization itself, thus restoring our national sovereignty."

To its credit, the Republican party has finally seen the errors of its ways and has formally opposed Agenda 21 in its party platform adopted at the party convention in Tampa. Let's hope they are unified in that opposition and maintain it as they go forward.  ##

Doug Gorman is president Home Mart, the industry's most award winning retail center, located n Tulsa OK. He is also a recent inductee into the RV/MH Hall of Fame.

RV/MH Hall of Fame Celebrates Inductees

August 13th, 2012 No comments

Surrounded by more than 300 family, friends, and colleagues from across the country, the Class of 2012 was inducted into the RV/MH Hall of Fame (Hall) at a gala ceremony last week in Elkhart, Indiana.

Barry Cole (Manufactured Housing Insurance Services), chairman of the board of directors for the Hall, said, "What a joyous occasion with all past legends and present leaders of our great industries to honor the ten new inductees. There is no industry function that can equal the emotional feeling and happiness when mingling and networking with so many greatest of the great."

Cole believed it was an incredible evening supported by both RV and Manufactured Housing segments.  

Inductees and family members accepting on behalf of deceased inductees include: First Row (L-R): Doug Gorman, 

Stan Sunshine, Gerald "Jiggs" Meuret, Kaki Williamson, Jeanne Mize, Rachel Gandy, Mary Irene Younkin, 

Michael Evans. Second Row: Bob Olson, Kent Titcomb, Allan Yoder, Gail Yoder and Holly Yoder.

"The cocktail party was fun, the huge group picture with all attending was charming, the dinner as always was incredible and best of all was the touring of the RV/MH Hall of Fame itself." Cole continued. "Wandering through the exhibits, theater, library and museum surprised some new guests. They were shocked at the unbelievable greatness and beauty of the building plus discovering their heritage for the first time. All comments from everyone referencing the Hall were in superlatives."

"Some of the many MH veterans who mingled and networked during the cocktail hour were Ron Younkin, Jeff Wicke, Dan Rolfes, Tim Williams, L. A. 'Tony' Kovach, Ken Rishel and George Allen." 

"At dinner Dick Jennison (MHI) was sitting with a contingency of MH professionals Jim Scoular, John Evans, Leo Poggione, Darrell Boyd, Chris Barrett and John Loucks. Ross Kinzler was sitting with Jigs Meuret and Danny Gorbani (MHARR) sitting with Doug and Millie Gorman. These are a few of the enormous number of MH attendees."

"These are a few of the enormous number of MH attendees."

 

Keynote speaker David Humphreys (left). Darryl Searer (right) delivers good news concerning the financial health of the Hall

Keynote Speaker David Humphreys, former president of the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association said, "The Hall of Fame serves many purposes for the industry. 

Besides providing a great consumer attraction, the Hall of Fame defines an important message for the financial community, the media and legislators and gives a sense of pride, unity and accomplishment for the entire industry."

Noting the solid financial footing the Hall of Fame has achieved through the leadership of President Darryl Searer, Humphreys urged audience members to give the same priority to the Hall of Fame they give to industry unity."

In a behind-the-scenes look at the financial status of the Hall and its recovery from near insolvency just a few months ago, Searer declared, "The Hall of Fame has never been in better shape than it is today."

Overall debt owed by the Hall has been cut by $2.5 million in the four months since Searer assumed the Hall presidency.

Cole added, "It was a special evening you just did not want to end. You are invited next year."##

barry-cole-rv-mh-hall-of-fame-manufactured-home-insurance-services-mhisBarry Cole, Chairman, RV/MH Hall of Fame

Response On a Bold Proposal for Moving MHI, MHARR and Manufactured Housing Ahead

November 21st, 2011 No comments

 

One of the proposals being run up the flag pole is to merge MHI and MHARR with Danny Ghorbani to run the areas that are related to manufacturing and with George Allen running the areas related to communities. One obvious omission here is retail – not to mention lending, suppliers and other Industry elements at the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) – but the proposal has other issues that would suggest against implementation of such a concept.
 
 
Danny Ghorbani is imminently qualified to serve in a role overseeing the manufacturing issues within MHI. From Danny's point of view though, how long would he function before a clash in organizational culture styles might force him out the door?
 
 
Danny is fiercely defensive of issues that negatively affect his organization's members. Many of those members are small or even single plant operations that rightly or wrongly feel they do not have a sufficient voice in MHI. That perception is the reason MHARR was formed. Without some strong reassurances that small manufacturers will gain confidence regarding their voice and that Danny could not summarily be dismissed after the dismantling of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), I do not see a merger having success.
 
 
The merger idea has been floated before and gained little traction. I have spent approximately ten years working with both MHI and MHARR through my role on the Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee (MHCC). The two organizations functioned very well together in that regulatory environment, but Danny has been free to take up potentially controversial issues that MHI has been able to avoid.
 
 
I have pointed out previously that MHI, by its nature is a trade association that represents the entire industry. By that very nature, it serves in an umbrella or big tent role and all participants may not support an aggressive stance against actions taken by the Federal Government that impact our industry.
 
 
From the perspective of a medium or small manufacturer a significant concern would be to make sure Danny was mentoring a replacement as he gets closer to a time he may choose to retire.
 
 
Recent defensive stances taken by Danny include opposition to unwarranted increased regulatory monitoring activities (implemented by HUD) by the PIAs, exposure of inaccurate fire safety reports by NFPA, and presenting strong arguments for repositioning 3285 installation regulations into 3280 standards to allow for pre-emption of installation guidelines. Would Danny have been free to raise and argue these issues (just to name a few) as an employee of MHI?
 
 
The two individuals suggested certainly have the qualifications to share running a newly configured MHI. But:
 
  • Could MHARR member manufacturers have confidence in such a proposed restructure?
  • Could retailers and others have confidence in a proposed restructure where they are not even mentioned?
 
 
As a manufacturer, I would want to have a membership in both MHI and MHARR. I would look to MHI to continue to serve in the broad role as the industry's trade organization. I would look to MHARR to continue to monitor government actions that are an overreach with negative impacts on affordability for our customer base. # #
 
 
by Doug Gorman,
MH Retailer
HomeMart

Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee analysis of MHI and MHARR positions

October 26th, 2011 No comments

Tony,

The industry faces the problem that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) assessment of the composition of the Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee (MHCC) is reasonably accurate. Initially both the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and MHARR were allowed to have two of the seven industry seats. Today, HUD no longer allows that balanced and knowledgable representation.

Over the past several years we have seen other seats incorrectly given to government employees and other parties with anti-industry bias. The Designated Federal Officer (DFO) and non-voting twenty-second seat on the MHCC (the political appointee) has not been reappointed for several years now. One of the purposes for the existence of that position is to provide some perspective to the HUD Manufactured Housing Program that is not held hostage by preconceived biases inside the HUD permanent staff.

The shift in committee composition has brought with it members who tend to vote their ideology without regard to cost implications. Evaluating cost implications of proposed changes is statutory and yet is ignored by HUD staff and the MHCC with no consequences.

MHI’s recent actions in regard to fire sprinklers is well intended and is an effort to at least establish controls in advance of what MHI perceives as potentially hugely damaging costs if a preemptory sprinkler system is not advanced by the industry. MHARR’s point that extremely valuable ground in the world of preemption is being surrendered is true and does not bode well for the industry on both fire sprinklers and other preemption issues as they arise.

The Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA of 2000) actually gave more teeth to the preemptive language of the original 1974 act. HUD’s manufactured housing program management staff should be valiantly defending that preemptive language when other parties take actions that violate the most recent version of that language. My experience of nearly ten years of working with HUD management as an MHCC member has showed me that HUD will not undertake that defense.

In anticipation of a worst possible outcome scenario, MHI’s actions are an effort to head off potentially devastating costs of meeting fire sprinkler requirements with no parameters. MHARR’s position is the more legally accurate, but faces unknown consequences in the efforts that would be required to enforce the strictly legal position. While I am not privy to all the arguments for both cases, I do know that I hate to give up valuable ground.

Doug Gorman
HomeMart
Former MHCC member

The Emperor has no Clothes

August 21st, 2011 13 comments

There is a lot to say about what has gone wrong with our country and our Industry.  We will begin ‘at the top,’ with our Chief Executive, President Barack Obama.

What’s up with Obama’s recent bus tour?

I’m no fan of the prior president, but say what you will about President W, when he took a similar bus trip to President Obama’s, W used campaign dollars to pay for it.  Where is the “watchdog” media? Why no hue and cry when the administration buys millions of dollars of Canadian buses so President BO can tour in style on the taxpayer’s dime?

What’s up with all that?

Isn’t it ironic that BO tours campaign style after lecturing millionaires and billionaires about private jets and corporate perks?  Or is that rhetoric just a way of getting the votes of middle America and ‘the little people?’

Do you like ‘divide and conquer politics?  To me, it is plain wrong.  Talk about issues, talk records or about facts.  But don’t pit one group against another.

I need to be clear that W vacationed considerably more than BO.  But W went to his ranch or Camp David, etc.  But to add irony to injury, on the heels of all this bad economic news, BO is in Martha’s Vineyard – the haven of the elite – now?

Even left wing commentators see this vacation in the New England playground of the rich and famous as a problem.

  • Experts and government statistics suggest we have 17% unemployed and under-employed.
  • We have more people on food-stamps and welfare than at any time in U.S. history.
  • And BO will give us his ‘next’ jobs program in September, after his resort vacation?
  • Where are all those shovel ready and other jobs from the ‘first’ one?  Or were all the jobs ‘created’ at the job killing CFPB?

They say the emperor has no clothes.  Well, we have no emperor, but a president and his wardrobe looks just fine.

Ascendancy and Dependency

It is the party of dependency that is still in ascendency.

Or at least still in high office…

…dependency is a major voting block today.

Be it government labor unions, federal jobs or those on government assistance, it is an issue.  We have to put people to work, not get them used to no work. We do need federal and other government jobs.  But we can’t give everyone a job regulating someone who is working to produce a product or a service that keeps America’s wheels turning.

If we do not change our ways federally and locally, we will look like rioting old England some day, because we can’t afford to keep adding to our debt and taking on more programs that fail to foster independence.

While we have plenty of dependency programs, meanwhile, we have

  • flash mobs that form, rob, harass and harm others in our cities.
  • We have automatic weapons fire along our southern border.
  • We have three wars we are involved in instead of the previous two.

I didn’t favor W taking us into Iraq, nor do I favor BO taking us into Libya.  Even if we ‘win,’ what have we won in either case?  We spill American blood and treasure, for what?  We can’t be the world’s cop, and we can’t have wars for the sake of foreign oil, etc.

Let’s drill and do energy on U.S. soil and off U.S. shores, as safely and prudently as possible.  Think about the major jobs creation potential.

Private enterprise can pay for it all without federal dollars.  Let business people do business in America again.

Another Recession, whats up with that?

The media speaks of double dip recession.  What’s up with that phrase?

Did anyone notice that the ‘great recession’ never ended?  Did you notice that the housing markets still suffer, and Keynesian/Euro socialist economics just added trillions to our debt without giving us a stronger economy?

No jobs.  No stimulated business.  Tougher lending.  Very little respect overseas.  Where is the change we can believe in?  Or was that supposed to mean the pocket change we have left after taxes?

Third part candidate George Wallace once said there wasn’t a dime’s worth of difference between the two major parties. Thus Wallace favored what some have for years, a third party to bring America back. But Ronald Reagan had it closer, we don’t need a third party, but a rejuvenated second party.

That means we don’t need Rino Republicans, Republicans In Name Only.  To me, W was a Rino, socially conservative, but nearly as much a man about big government as BO is.  W helped give us that darn bail out of the bankers.  W took us into two wars with no end in sight.  W’s dad may not have “finished the job” in the first Gulf War, but he had the smarts to get in and get out.

We need business friendly independents, Democrats and Republicans.

Businesses create jobs.  Jobs are what American’s need, and then they can start buying houses again!

Speaking of jobs, how about creating 20 million new ones?

I’ve read the same reports you have; that there are two trillion dollars of investment money on the sidelines – actually overseas – that could be brought back to the U.S. In short order.

But that 2 trillion fled America due to regulations and tax policies.  Do we have the political will to bring those trillions back?

Think about what Two Trillion Dollars we don’t have to borrow, or write down, would mean to our country right now.  If every $100,000 invested created only 1 American job, that would mean 20,000,000 jobs.

Think: 20 million people off aid, off food stamps, off unemployment or other government programs.  2o million more taxpayers.  Think 20 million people less dependent, means we would be that much closer to a balanced budget!

We better find and support candidates in whatever party who know how the free enterprise system works, because creating jobs by supporting business is what we should be about.

Free Enterprise, not Keynesian/Euro socialist economics, is what made America the land of the free and the home of the brave.

November 2012 is shaping up now.  Who we support now for our state houses, or for Congress, the Senate and the White House will be on the ballot 15 months from now.

Personally, I’ve contacted my senators and representative and made my feelings known on economic and social issues.  But I will also make them known on the path to election 2012.

Give the man his props

One thing that our recently bus touring and now vacationing BO has done is give us an executive order we can believe in.  With all due respect to Marty Lavin, Danny Ghorbani was the first to bring it to our Industry’s attention.  We speak of Executive Order (EO) #13563, similar to President Clinton’s issued in 1993.

MHMSM.com posted EO #13563 months ago, that requires an examination of regulatory impact and its benefits.

MHARR is right.  HUD’s budget has grown, while our industry shipments have shrunk.  What’s up with that fact?

What the president – at least on paper –  has done is give us EO#13563 which could hold HUD and other regulators accountable.  Now will our national associations use that to our Industry’s benefit?

The Fall Congressional hearing on Manufactured Housing

Ooops.

Who do we have in DC “helping us” in the planned fall Congressional hearings on our Industry?  Congressman Barney Frank.  What’s up with that?

Let’s see.  Barney helped give us the SAFE Act.  Barney also gave us part of the name of the bill that in his: Dodd-Frank.

So do you feel safer or dodd-franked?

With friends like Barney, does our industry need any federal enemies?

Who is watching how our industry PAC money is spent?  Is this the type of anti-business candidate we need to support?

Where is that change we can believe in?  Or did I drop that change the last time I filed my quarterlies?

One of the best meeting planners around, but…

I asked Tony Kovach why George Allen’s Roundtable was not on the MHMSM.com calendar.  “George isn’t an association, and he opted not to pay for an ad.”

Maybe there is considerable momentum from last year’s event that MHMSM.com did promote.  I noticed that Allen is reporting more state association executives coming to the Roundtable this year.  State execs are often ‘comped’ for coming to an event.  George is one of the best self-promoters the Industry has seen in the past 2 decades.  I’d want state execs helping me promote an event of mine too.  Nothing wrong with it, a common practice.

In the manufactured home communities world, Allen’s Roundtables are unmatched.  Allen gets some fine speakers and topics in.  They are informative and enjoyable.

However, I can’t always agree with George Allen’s commentary, live or in his columns here or in his own publications.  Let’s parse some of his recent ones for a few moments.

I understand and agree with George that MHI doesn’t seem to have a plan for our Industry’s recovery.  What’s up with that fact?  I can see why the natives are restless in the NCC, even with Lisa B getting appointed.

George is spot on that MHI is failing to do half of what an association is called to do – protect and promote.

  • Where is the Industry promotion?
  • How has MHI worked to reverse the Industry’s downward new home shipment trend?  Marty was spot on regarding that topic, in his recent column.

But George’s bashing of Danny and MHARR misses the mark.  Why?

Because MHARR is an association for independent Manufacturers. MHARR don’t get paid to represent communities or lenders or suppliers.  MHARR doesn’t represent retailers,  which if you ask retailers like Doug Gorman or Dick Moore, MHI doesn’t seem to do such a hot job for them either.

George, the point is that MHARR can’t be faulted for focusing on what its members pay MHARR to do, namely, work on regulatory issues.  So George, if you want to fault Danny, fault him for something that group is paid to do.  At least MHARR has stated publicly they support the ‘post production’ sector (MHARR code words for MHI) in their efforts to modify Dodd-Frank, SAFE, etc.  I’ve not seen any similar effort from MHI back towards MHARR.  If it exists, it is behind the scenes.

I also agree with Marty Lavin that we better watch more what people say than what people do.  We better watch results, because words alone can be cheap.

Or words can costly, depending on how you look at it.

Industry Marketing and Image Campaign

Speaking of MHI and the Industry image campaign…

…I’ve seen the plan Tony, IMHA’s Mark Bowersox and others have put together.  In a word, brilliant.

In my mind, they need to consider a different name, but for now they are calling it the Manufactured Housing Alliance and Phoenix Plan.  Their plan navigates the key political issues that our industry has faced that has kept us from moving ahead.

We keep reading from MHI the statistics about our dropping new home shipments.   This gets back to the dual role that an association is supposed to have, protect and promote.

Where is MHI on this MH Alliance/Phoenix Plan effort to turn around our image, marketing and sales results?

Silent.

By contrast. I see John Bostick’s name on the page in favor of the MH Alliance/Phoenix Plan.  That makes me want to order some Sunshine Homes and get others to do the same!

Good for MHARR’s Chairman, who did not endorse it on MHARR’s behalf, but Mr. Bostick has obviously taken the time and had the guts to publicly say, hey, this can work.

Which leads to the questions:

> Where are the MHARR members or Danny on this plan?

> Where is MHI on this plan?

Marty Lavin on Danny Ghorbani

I’m the first to agree with Marty that Danny needs to polish up those lobbying skills.  In fact, let me take Marty’s points a step farther.  As I personally see it, and others may disagree, Danny has three options:

  1. change your ways, permanently and rapidly, to become more effective at what you do for MHARR,
  2. retire and consult for MHARR as needed;
  3. or just retire.

Danny, retire? What would happen to MHARR without Danny?  What’s up with that idea?  Can you even say MHARR without saying Danny G’s name?

Yes, you can.

Attorney and MHARR VP Mark Weiss is a good man.  Mark knows the law, can be reasoned with and Danny has prepared him to take the helm at MHARR, when the time comes that Danny decides to retire or when MHARR members make that decision.

For example, MHARR could bring in a new associate, give Danny a nice gold watch, and a one year transitional consulting agreement.  The independent factories that support MHARR can save money.  As or more important, they likely can get more done and advance their cause in DC with HUD, Congress and other regulators.

The timing is right for a change at MHARR.  Danny, don’t take it the wrong way, you are a smart guy and know the HUD Code as well as anyone in the manufacturing side of the Industry.  But in my personal opinion, it is time to change your ways for the better or you better retire.

The best suits and fine meetings

Danny has some of the best suits in DC that our Industry can brag about.  Danny and MHARR are spot on with some key issues.  But you can be right, and still do things in a way that turns people off.

But give the man his props, Danny is right about MHI meeting,

after meeting,

after meeting and

…where is the MHI plan?

But then, Danny – if you stay – you and MHARR should then walk the walk and have an action plan of your own. Not a some day, or five year plan, a let’s get it done now plan.

Perhaps John Bostick’s public move supporting the MH Alliance/Phoenix Plan will inspire others of stature to make their own public statements or just help launch the program.

But at some point, we need to get past meetings, and get to doing.  46,000 shipments.  We are now down about 88% from our post HUD-Code high in 1998.  How much lower can we go and still have an Industry?

  • We can’t fill empty home sites with only used product.
  • We need new homes bought from factories and sold to consumers.
  • We need retailers and community operators who attract customers with good credit, and then close them and turn them into happy homeowners who will tell their friends and once again let our Industry grow.

The Numbers on MAP

I like abbreviations. Let’s call this plan of Mark’s and Tony’s MAP for short, because this MH Alliance Phoenix can be our road MAP to the future. Maybe we can get Tony and Mark to come up with a better name.  But in the mean time, MAP it is for me.

I asked Tony to give me a projection on what he thinks MAP can do.  His answer?  First year from the launch date could double shipments without a need for hurricane season (no need for FEMA orders).

The next year could double it again.  That would be roughly 92,000 shipments in year 1. Then 184,000 shipments in year two.

Take a look at the MAP if you haven’t already.  If you have a better plan, why not share it?  But if not, get behind the plan that is out there being discussed.

I’m told that MAP can be up and running in short order.  We can do MAP, with no waiting for federal or state action!

Doing the Math, my Math not Ts

Tony has his math, I have mine.

Let’s say MAP was launched, and then MAP raised shipments back to 75,000 the first year.  Let’s further say, 1/2 of the increase went into communities.

  • That would mean 14,500 spaces filled.  At say $275 average a month per site, that would mean $47,850,000 more to MHCs a year.  Plus the profits off the home sales.
  • 29,000 additional new shipments would mean 29,000 new jobs.
  • It would mean security for those whose jobs or businesses are at risk due to declining shipments.How many MH plants would stay open?
  • At even a low $50,000 average per home, that 1.45 billion in new sales.  Think about the boost in revenue to retailers and developers.

Would you give $75 per location to boost sales $1.45 Billion and create about $48 million in new communities revenues?

If not, please go back to 5th grade math.  To me, this spells a good deal.

Let me stress, these are my numbers, not T’s or Mark’s.  But it tells me why they and others are working to see this plan happen.

Chattel Lenders

I’m not without experience in dealing with personal property lending.  While he wasn’t talking about just lending, I agree with Chad Carr’s recently published statement about MAP.  The MH Alliance/Phoenix Plan is the only plan I’ve seen that gets to the heart of fixing chattel lending for our Industry.  MAP provides solutions for image, lobbying and other practical issues too. It dares to be bold, without trying to step on any industry group’s toes.

If your chattel lender has not yet seen this, she or he better do so!  This can help us cut our repos losses dramatically.

It will help our customers – manufactured home owners – dramatically too.  That will in turn attract more customers, and more credit worthy ones.

Manufactured housing lenders need to see our losses cut.  Because that panel of lenders at the MHI Congress last April were correct.  A repo can cost 50% (or more) of the loan balance.   There are so many dark clouds that hang over personal property lending for manufactured housing right now, we have to have solutions if our Industry will ever advance.

In fact, our survival depends on it.

I asked Tony specifically about people who have and have not seen MAP.  T won’t comment about those who haven’t shared a public statement. I can respect that, but it does leave us guessing.

So someone needs to ask Marty Lavin or Dick Ernst where they are on this.  Have they seen it?  What is there take?  It is obvious that Ken Rishel has come out for it, big time, in his own newsletter and on MHMSM.com too.

Come to think of it, where is George Allen’s name on this subject?  Didn’t he say a few months ago, we needed an image campaign?  What’s up with that?

We could go through a list of industry leaders and say, what about you?  Where are you on this MAP subject?

If you are for it, why not say so publicly? If you oppose it, why and then propose your own alternative!  Mark, Tony and those working on this want to see consensus. I appreciate that, but I’d add that we can’t afford to debate stuff forever.  We need to move ahead, and pronto.

If we do not start advancing, more factories, more retailers and more communities will fail.  It is simply 5th grade math.

State and Communities Association leaders

Given that a pair of state association leaders have already publicly stated support for the MH Alliance and Phoenix plan, it is reasonable to think others have seen it too.  We need to watch and encourage this plan at the state level.

Because let’s be honest, the states are where it is at.  All politics are local, and your business happens at the state and local level.

Last year, we saw some state execs who took a leadership role to get things happening at the federal level.  We need to see that again, and we need to see that on MAP or their best alternative to it.

A pimple on an elephant’s bottom

We’ve heard this expression at meetings and coffee tables.  I admit it sadly fits the influence our Industry has politically in DC today.  We need to be working tea parties to get the party of jobs, business and growth moving ahead. We need to hold the feet of those who say they will change DC for the better to the fire, and get the gold of jobs and rising housing back to work building the U.S.A.

We have lost our nation’s AAA credit rating.  Debt piles up, what do we have to show for it?  Where are the jobs?  The lending?  The recovery?  What did we bail out anyway?  Who benefited from all that taxpayer funded largess?

We saw some amazing upsets at the midterms, and I think we can see more if we plan now for the best candidates and then mobilize for the general elections.

It is frankly another good reason to learn and get behind the MAP.  We will increase our influence at the state house and in Washington when our consumers are visibly supporting us in sizable numbers.

Let’s work and earn the support of our communities’ residents and home owners/customers!  Then we should make sure we continue to deserve it.  Without happy customers, we are as doomed as if HUD bureaucrats or others would just shut us down.

TANSTAFL

If I boiled this down, it would be this.  We can’t have something for nothing.  TANSTAFL = There is no such thing as a free lunch. Someone always pays.

We better work for truly positive change, or we will be left with pocket change.

We better look at and support a plan that can move us ahead.  I vote for the MH Alliance/Phoenix Plan.  Or we will suffer the fate of the buggy whip makers.

I shop at WalMart no more than I have to, because I believe in supporting the smaller and more independent business women and men out there.  They are more like me.  They want to serve me, and I in turn want to support them.

We better support the HUD Code builders, and they in turn, better support us too.

Talking and Doing.

Before we look at any other emperor who also lacks clothes, let’s close for now. Talk is fine, but let’s follow talk with do.

I want to thank those of you who have written.  Please do not think me rude, but for now…

…I hope you understand that some things need to be said that have gone unsaid too long.

More next time.##

post submitted by
Michael Barnabas

(Editor’s note: The views presented on the Industry Voices Guest Blog represent those of the writer.  They do not necessarily represent the views of MHMSM.com (soon to be rebranded as MHProNews.com) or our sponsors.

We encourage a respectful exchange of opinions and views on topics of general interest to the Industry.  Industry Voices guests columns are not a forum for business promotion; that is what advertising is supposed to do.

The Industry Voices forum encourages a respectful dialogue between industry members.  You can post comments using our Disqus system or submit your own Industry Voices guest column in reply to a column like this topic or on any other topic of interest to the factory built housing Industry.  Please put Industry Voices Guest Column in the subject line when you submit an article for consideration. Posted comments via Disqus and Industry Voices columns must stay within the boundaries of civility, the law and common sense.)

 

 

 

 

 

Open Letter to CFED regarding Dodd-Frank and its impact on affordable Manufactured Housing

May 24th, 2011 No comments

To: Kathryn Gwatkin Goulding
Cc: CFED Federal Policy

Kathryn,

I am receipt of CFED’s newsletter earlier today in which praises were heaped upon the Dodd-Frank Bill and its related Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Analysis of the bill by numerous manufactured housing industry financial services consultants have concluded that without modifications, this bill could destroy our industry which is currently only hanging on by a thread anyway.

The Dodd-Frank Bill is far too typical of Congress’ meddling with our system with devastating effects on lower income families. While boasting about protection for consumers, the results of the bill without alteration will be to eliminate the availability to finance home loans lower than $78,000. Since our loans average about $60,000, more than half of our market will be eliminated. Those unable to get loans will be the ones at the lower portion of our client base. I don’t think these wanted Congress to legislate them out of the ability to purchase a home. Rather than promoting the infallibility of the Dodd-Frank Bill, CFED should be rallying to support the changes needed to protect the lowest income home purchasers in our nation. Just because they are low income, they should not be forced out of the ability to purchase a home. As I assume you are aware, our industry is already at the lowest level of shipments since record keeping began in 1961. Unmodified, the Dodd-Frank Bill will most likely destroy any hope for a recovery. The sad thing is that the death of the industry will not result from the Free Enterprise rejection by the market; it will be the result of an ignorant Congress legislating low income consumers out of the ability to borrow the funds necessary to finance their home. Of course, Congress did the same thing to the US light bulb manufacturers so maybe we should have seen it coming.

Please note the comments below in a column written by industry expert and Industry Person of the Year, George Allen. Please join our industry to encourage Congress to make the modifications necessary to preserve the ability of our lowest income homeowners to achieve their goal of homeownership. I appreciate the efforts CFED has taken over the years to protect low income families. Removing their ability to purchase a home will not be to their benefit.

George Allen–
Dodd-Frank Fallout. Geesh! This bill isn’t even law yet, and finance-related businesses are closing, simply to avoid having to put up with the more onerous of its proposed/planned regulations. Already, ‘former employees,’ perhaps even potential borrowers, are paying the price for what, to many of us, appears to be excessive regulatory reach into the financial sector. Here’s the plaint of one blog flogger (i.e., reader) writing to us this past week…
‘Dodd-Frank forced us to close our mortgage company in ___________ , and lay off several employees. Reason? Our capitalization with _______________ (a major bank) as our JV partner, was slightly in excess of $1,000,000. We were not a broker, but a direct lender, using the bank’s money. Under Dodd-Frank, unless you have a ten million dollar capitalization, you get classified as a broker. And as a broker, you have additional disclosures, the required language of which pretty much scares your customers away to a direct lender. So, we are out of business. Multiply that many times, in every community in America. An apt example of ‘the law of unintended consequences,’ as well as job and prosperity killing legislation!’ (lightly edited. GFA)

…the Dodd-Frank bill is maybe the ‘final nail in the coffin of chattel finance,’ where manufactured housing is concerned? Whereas the necessity of added fees will necessitate a minimum manufactured housing loan of $78,000.00, to simply ensure the return of basic and added fees to a chattel lender. And outside certain high-priced local housing markets, how many times do we see manufactured home loans, especially on resale homes, in excess of $78,000.00? # #

Thanks,

Doug Gorman
Home-Mart, Inc.
9516 East Admiral Place
Tulsa, OK 74116
800-364-4663 Toll free
918-835-0500 Office
918-835-8146 Fax
918-250-6867 Home
918-640-1357 Cell
doug@homemart.us
www.homemart.us

Editor’s Note: Please click here to read the CFED document.

The IBISWorld Controversy and the Manufactured Housing Industry

April 13th, 2011 3 comments

Exclusive MHMSM.com Industry In Focus Report

The March 2011 IBISWorld report that cited manufactured home dealers as a ‘dying industry’ has made news inside and outside of the manufactured housing industry. MHMSM.com has contacted a variety of Industry leaders and personalities from coast to coast to get their comments. On-the-record comments have included national association leaders, as well as professionals in factory-built housing from the manufacturing, retail, communities and lending sectors.

Messages, comments and calls to MHMSM.com from manufactured home industry professionals dribbled in at first, and then gained in volume as publications such as The Atlantic and Business Insider covered the IBISWorld report. As an example of mainstream media coverage, a TV station in Houston reportedly called a regional firm to interview them about the developing IBISWorld story.

Derek Thompson, associate editor at The Atlantic, penned a commentary that included these words:

“At the center of a perfect storm of boomer burnout, a brutal recession,
and a rapidly changing industry, the mobile home retail market
could be the worst industry in America. Here’s why.”

Photo from The Atlantic
Photo from The Atlantic

“If I asked you to name America’s least fortunate industry, your mind might go to record stores, obliterated by on-demand apps; or photofinishers, left in the cold as digital cameras turn Americans into our own photo editors; or fabric makers, where business is booming … in Shenzhen, China.

“But when it comes to unlucky industries, it’s manufactured home (aka mobile home) retailers who really hit the trifecta. First they missed out on the housing boom. Then they felt the gut-punch of the recession. Now they might yet miss out on the recovery. That makes them America’s fastest dying industry, according to a new report from IBISWorld.”

Paul Bradley with Resident Owned Communities USA (ROC USA) was one of the first in the manufactured housing world’s leadership to publicly respond to this IBISWorld report. Bradley wrote a feature article for MHMSM.com that analyzed the IBISWorld report. Quoting from Bradley’s analysis:

“The (IBISWorld) report states ‘demand is dwindling’ and ‘sales are stagnant because the industry is not innovating, and that sales are likely to continue falling in the coming years.’ They go on to say, ‘Manufacturers have made cosmetics changes to manufactured homes, but they have not been significant enough to alter their life cycle stage.’ The report puts MH retailers in the ‘Industry stagnation’ category of declining industries.

“Are you kidding me? These are ‘deeply researched answers’?

“First, the headline clearly comes from their marketing division as a means of grabbing headlines. The research is not about a dying industry but a declining industry segment – one of two long-standing distribution channels in the business.

“With MH shipments in 2010 at 50,000 or 20 percent of 2000 levels, it’s not news that retailer revenues over that period declined. On that data, I’m surprised establishments are not down more than 56 percent. It suggests that the segment has excess capacity and additional closings are likely.

“Most surprising to me is laying the blame at the feet of manufacturers on the issue of design! From a ground-level market vantage point, that’s misplaced.

“The industry’s great declines came about as a result of, first, an industry-created chattel collapse where the seeds were sown in run-up to the 373,000 shipments in 1998. The collapse, and the repossession overhang which followed, began the decline like a skilled boxer’s well-placed left jab.

“The right overhand came next in the form of aggressive sub-prime and predatory lenders in the site-built market. In that run-up, traditional MH buyers – who were harder to finance for MH as a result of the chattel collapse – were lost to site-built housing in an eerily familiar boom market.

“Dazed by the right hand blow to our collective heads, the left to the body that has people reeling now is the regulatory reaction – the SAFE act, etc. – to the clearly consumer-eating lending practices of the last decade.

“The results of this three punch combination are declines of the magnitude widely reported and felt, and like a good whack, the pain lasts a while.

“Innovation in housing design, however, is not the industry’s chief failing.

“For those of us in the community market segment, in fact, innovation in new homes is a small issue – not a non-issue but a mere shadow of the aforementioned home financing issue. In fact, we are seeing demand for replacement and in-fill homes but only where we are able to arrange decent home financing. People want more efficient homes and the cost savings with new EnergyStar homes can be dramatic based on buyers with whom I’ve spoken.”

(Editor’s Note: The complete analysis by Paul Bradley can be found at this link.)

Other commentary in the form of articles proposed for publication, private and public comments followed. Thayer Long at the Manufactured Housing Institute issued this email as part of his response:

“State Execs & MHI Board:

“A very well articulated response to the IBIS report from last week by Paul Bradley which was just posted on www.MHMSM.com.

“I’d also just add that the sentiment at the Tunica Show, the Louisville Show, and the expected strong turnout at the Congress & Expo and the Tulsa Show and York Show later this month certainly don’t indicate this industry is going anywhere.

“Tony/Paul – I hope you don’t mind me sharing. We’ll see you in Las Vegas. Thanks for your support.

“Thanks-

“Thayer”

MHMSM.com spoke with Danny Ghorbani at the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and to Thayer Long at the Manufactured Housing Institute.

Danny Ghorbani stated in a telephone interview that his comments were not the official position of MHARR, but represented his own views on the IBISWorld report and related.

Ghorbani stressed that the IBISWorld report represented the “failure” of “the post-production sector of the Industry” [meaning, MHI] in “serving that segment of its membership.”

The MHARR official then referenced two previously published documents that do represent MHARR’s official position, which were previously published on MHMSM.com in August and October 2010. These MHARR Viewpoint articles called for ‘the post-production segments’ of the manufactured housing industry to form their own national association; a thinly veiled vote of no-confidence from MHARR towards MHI.

MHMSM.com spoke extensively with Thayer Long at the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). The typically soft-spoken Long was quick to respond.

Long was at times tongue-in-cheek, at other points direct in his comments about the IBISWorld report and Ghorbani’s often pointed comments on the matter. It should be stressed that Long’s comments, which follow, should be viewed as his own, and not necessarily reflective of the official view of MHI.

In an exclusive interview with MHMSM.com, Long shared the following thoughts:

Thayer Long:
“If it is a dying industry, then ok, then I guess I quit! And if Danny wants to blame it on us [MHI], okay, what else is new? … I am still struggling to figure out what he (Danny Ghorbani) is doing right now. Name one thing that he has accomplished … in the past three years? What has he accomplished…? I would love for you to think about that and get back to me. What has he accomplished? We [MHI] win and lose some battles. But at least we try. We have accomplished some things. Except, except, except… [MHARR]…nothing….

READ THE FULL INDUSTRY IN FOCUS REPORT

IBIS Report and the Manufactured Housing Retailer’s Future

April 10th, 2011 1 comment

Having spent 40 years in the industry, I have experienced every down cycle the industry has had since they started keeping records in 1961. After a peak nationally of almost 600,000 units in 1973, we suffered a dramatic plunge that was felt the most in the Southeast where I was located at the time. I relocated to Oklahoma in the 1980s and endured a drop in shipments from about 13,000 homes in 1983 to about 350 or so in 1988. Shipments again took a hit in the early 1990s as lending became almost nonexistent. The current down cycle began after a peak of nearly 373,000 shipments nationally in 1998 and has fallen below 50,000, which is lower than when the record keeping began in 1961. 

I certainly do not have the credentials to refute the recent IBIS report that labeled the manufactured housing industry as being on the verge of extinction. I also approach the subject with some trepidation as I majored in Marketing and I am keenly aware that most of the buggy whip manufacturers are no longer in business. In order to accept the results of the report from a market demand stand point, we would have to arrive at the conclusion that the demand for new homes priced below $70-100 a square foot will become no longer significant. We would also have to accept that this disappearance of market demand will occur as down payment requirements are poised to increase to perhaps 20% while terms may be reduced to as low as 15 years. In the face of enormous down payment requirements and shortened terms for repayment, suddenly prospective home buyers are going pass over housing opportunities in the $20 to $40 per square foot category? 

We would also have to accept that demand for homes that can be titled without real estate will disappear. Suddenly no one will want to allow their kids or other family members to place a home on family land without encumbering the real property?

We would finally have to believe that no one living in a manufactured home community would have an interest in upgrading their home, and the communities would have no potential for new residents. 

I read Paul Bradley’s feature article in response to the IBIS report here in MHMSM.com. I share Paul’s optimism that a possible result of increased requirements for site-built housing may shift more buyers to the manufactured housing market.

We have had to endure ongoing discrimination of the allocation of lending resources even when the Duty to Serve language is rewritten to specifically cite manufactured housing. As a retailer, I do not see any shortage of willing buyers for the homes that we build. We do experience a series of problems related to recent acts foisted upon us by the federal government. 

I observed in a LinkedIn comment earlier that our industry trade organization, the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) is constricted by the composition of their membership from assuming the role of a being a strong advocate for individual industry divisions. Retailers would have to form an independent organization dedicated to retailers in order to have someone in Washington, DC truly going to bat on all the issues that retailers face. I don’t see the numbers or the money being there for that to happen. In the mean time, we accept MHI with its wrinkles, knowing that the diversity of the membership does not allow for the extreme dedication to our needs that we would like to have. 

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulation and Reform (MHARR) serves in that capacity for independent manufacturers and manufacturers need that dedicated representation as they have many issues affecting them that are completely unknown to other industry segments. 

Another theory being floated by some industry members is that a conspiracy is in play to undermine the effectiveness that the HUD Code provides and bring about its demise. If that theory is true and if the conspirators have enough influence, market demand will not matter. I am not smart enough to know whether or not a conspiracy exists to destroy our industry. I would say that if it does exist, it is experiencing reasonable success. 

We do face very difficult times as an industry. I have quipped on more than one occasion in the past few years that “absence of stress is death…and I am very much alive.”

As an industry, we have taken a beating for the last twelve years. Some of that has been our own doing and some from lack of fairness by government actions or inactions. If a conspiracy does in fact exist, I am too small a player to have much impact on stopping it. Absent a conspiracy, our company plans to move forward and provide our clients with great values in housing and outstanding customer service. Hopefully our industry can see itself through the balance of any remaining down turn and see an increase in shipments in the years ahead. 

I was privileged to be invited to return to Georgia last summer to speak at the industry’s annual state convention. Given my 40 years in the industry, I was able to reflect back to 20% rates with no less than 10% down and no ability to finance land or improvements. I titled my presentation after Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times….”

And indeed it is. # #

by Doug Gorman

Doug Gorman owns Home-Mart in Tulsa OK, and is perhaps the most award wining retailer in the U.S. today.  He has served the Industry on the state and national levels, including as Show Chairman for the Great Southwest Home Show in Tulsa.  You can read his Cup of Cocoa with Doug Gorman at this Link. Contact Doug at doug@homemart.us