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HUD, Census Bureau Releases Mainstream January 2019 Housing Starts Data, How Does Manufactured Housing Compare?

March 8th, 2019 Comments off

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There are voices in manufactured housing that are floating a variety of reasons for the poor results in 2018, and the continuingly poor performance to start out 2019.  Those reasons could be listed, in no particular order of importance, such as:

 

–      Weather,

–      FEMA,

–      Inventory adjustments by retailers, especially those by a vertically integrated giant,

–      Claimed slowdowns in other segments of America.

Before considering the validity of any of those claims, look at the latest multifamily and single family housing starts. Because facts trump opinions.

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HUD AND CENSUS BUREAU REPORT

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN JANUARY 2019

 

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for January 2019.

 

Building Permits

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,345,000. This is 1.4 percent (±0.8 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,326,000 but is 1.5 percent (±1.0 percent) below the January 2018 rate of 1,366,000.  Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 812,000; this is 2.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the revised December figure of 829,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 482,000 in January.

 

Housing Starts

 

Privately owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,230,000.  This is 18.6 percent (±26.6 percent)* above the revised December estimate of 1,037,000, but is 7.8 percent (±12.7 percent)* below the January 2018 rate of 1,334,000.  Single‐family housing starts in January were at a rate of 926,000; this is 25.1 percent (±29.0 percent)* above the revised December figure of 740,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 289,000.

 

NewResidentialConstructionJanuary2019NewResidentialConsctructionSAARTrendLinesHUDCensusBureauPlusMHIMHAOFinalDatafor2018DailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Housing Completions

Privately owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,244,000.  This is 27.6 percent (±13.5 percent) above the revised December estimate of 975,000 and is 2.1 percent (±12.2 percent)* above the January 2018 rate of 1,218,000.  Single‐family housing completions in January were at a rate of 914,000; this is 30.2 percent (±14.4 percent) above the revised December rate of 702,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 327,000.

The February report is scheduled for release on March 26, 2019.

 

EXPLANATORY NOTES

Data collection and processing were delayed for this indicator release due to the lapse in federal funding from December 22, 2018 through January 25, 2019. While response rates were consistent with normal levels, delays in data collection could make it more difficult to determine exact start and completion dates. However, processing and data quality were monitored and no systematic issues were identified.

 

In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and six months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 3 percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found at the Census Bureau’s website.

 

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

— end of joint HUD, Census Bureau release to MHProNews. —

 

Two congressmen debated the merits of the group, Nickelback. The song below – if rated – would likely draw a PG13 rating. It asks the question, are we having fun yet? 

Nickelback – How You Remind Me [OFFICIAL VIDEO] 25,344,379 views on 3.8.2019 at about 12:06 PM ET.

Facts are #NettlesomeThings. There’s every reason for the manufactured home industry’s leadership to do more than posture or provide excuses.

#HousingChoice requires that issues like those linked below be effectively addressed in a manner that provides measurable results. #YIMBY should be a mantra too, so where’s #MHIUPdate on those hashtags?

 

The balance are details and commentary, which you and others can begin to unpack in the related reports beyond the byline, our industry-leading email headline news free sign-up offer, and other notices. That’s “Manufactured Housing News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, commentary.)

 

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Democratic and Republican Policy Dilemmas, Affordable Housing, Economic Growth, and Manufactured Homes

February 18th, 2019 Comments off

 

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Let’s be clear. The publishers of MHProNews are political independents. We believe that affordable housing is a non-partisan issue.

 

A new report stresses the notion that Democratic and Republican lawmakers can and are working across the partisan political divide to promote manufactured homes as an important part of the solution for the affordable housing crisis.  That’s an encouraging example that Washington, D.C. could successfully embrace.  See that report by clicking on the linked text/image box below.

 

 

Democrats, Republicans Agree – “Manufactured Homes Can Play a Vital Role in Easing” the Affordable Housing Shortage

 

Ideally, bipartisan efforts to advance affordable housing could spell job plus household wealth creation.  The right policy supports and/or changes will either make common sense cures easier, or harder.  See the report below to learn more.

 

 

While MHProNews’ questions the practicality and constitutionality of many parts of the so-called Green New Deal, there are some stated positions taken by Democrats that we editorially believe makes sense. For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren has previously laid out a good case for antitrust action based upon existing law. We applaud her on that score, but more important, would encourage and celebrate its ASAP adoption.

 

Who Will Act? Will Senator Elizabeth Warren, and/or the Trump Administration Act to Restore Open Markets, Thereby Supporting Affordable Manufactured Homes?

 

House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters and some of her colleagues raised a warning a few years ago about Clayton Homes and their lending/businesses practices. That should be pressed by Waters and all on the House Financial Services Committee (FSC).

 

 

President Trump and some Republican lawmakers are similarly raising concerns about monopolistic practices that can unjustly twist the political process.  That goes beyond manufactured homes, and focuses on the tech giants known by the acronym #FAANG. While we believe in free enterprise, we oppose warped forms of rigged capitalism.  Free enterprise has rejected the trusts – monopolies – for decades.  That’s a position that Democrats and Republicans could agree upon. Beyond FAANG, Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft (#BM) arguably should arguably be broken up under antitrust laws.  Doing so would achieve what Professor Scott Galloways said in the quotation below about the big four, but could be applied beyond those 4 to #DeFaangBM.

Put differently, there is a broad consensus that could be forged to advance not unconstitutional wealth redistribution, but rather enforcement of laws that may fine or punish some who have broken various laws.  That could also give more opportunities for new businesses and existing ones to emerge.

 

 

There is no logic or need to jettison what made America the wealthiest nation on earth. Rather, what is necessary is to apply the “American Way” principles of equal justice under the law that Democrats, Republicans, and Independents have effectively achieved at various points in times past.

 

Draft EO for Trump Administration AntiTrust Order Obtained by MHProNews

 

Breaking up monopolies is good public policy. Advancing affordable housing – including, but not limited to – the liberal use of manufactured housing just makes good sense too.

 

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It’s a disgrace that America is not in the top 20, 30, or even 40 nations on earth in the rate of home ownership.

 

Top49NationsInWorldInHomeOwnershipRatesGlobalHomeOwnershipRatesMHProNews602

Home ownership, as HUD Secretary Ben Carson often said during his first year in office makes a significant difference in growing the personal wealth of Americans.  Renting households, said Carson, have an average household net worth of $5,000.  The average home owner, by contrast, has a net worth of some $200,000.  The most proven form of affordable housing has been manufactured homes.

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For newcomers to the website not familiar with modern manufactured homes, learn more by clicking the image above or the link here.

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Citizens can’t easily stop political posturing or game playing.  But what voters can do is encourage their elected representatives to promote the proven solutions now that routinely don’t even require new legislation.   What is needed is enforcement of existing laws.

MHVille Exclusive – Democrats Senators Sign Anti-Competitive Practices Letter to DoJ, Plus MH Market Updates

 

Democrats and Republicans each have billionaire supporters.  Money won’t be taken out of politics anytime soon.  The FAANG and BM have armies of lobbyists.  They will want more regulation, not an antitrust breakup.  But only an antitrust breakup will achieve what is needed for the American people.

 

Brad Says POTUS Trump is Right: More than Facebook & Twitter, Google Threatens Democracy, Online Freedom

 

Implementing an agenda that is non-partisan and can give each side ‘political victories’ by using existing laws is a simple notion whose time has come. Polls reveal that the public wants bipartisanship, and they are also catching onto the serious levels of ‘fake news’ that exists.

 

Trust in News, Washington Post vs Investors Business Daily Poll Results, MHVille Impacts

 

Those who ignore those trends could pay the price in 2020.

 

Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing, a Novel Yet Proven Solution to the Affordable Housing Crisis That Will Create Opportunities, Based Upon Existing Laws

 

President Donald J. Trump, the 45th president’s administration, the GOP, and Democrats can create trillions of dollars in new economic opportunities by implementing existing laws.  See the related reports above and below to learn more.” That’s “News through the lens of manufactured homes, and factory-built housing” © where We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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To report a news tip, click the image above or send an email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

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YIMBY, Amazon backed Plant Prefab Introducing ADUs, Product Video

November 16th, 2018 Comments off

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Treehugger says, “Yes in my back yard” (YIMBY), “Yves Behar and Plant Prefab introduce ADUs.”

 

California recently signed into law the okay for a broader use of Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs).

The environmental focused publisher, says, “The reason prefabs make so much sense in the A.D.U. context is that the added construction is easy on neighborhoods and neighbors. It can take two, three years to build something, with all the noise and visual pollution. And wasted materials that come with that. But with the YB1, it takes about a month to build it in a factory and a day to install. It comes prewired with all your electrical, HVAC, appliances — everything is ready to go. Prefabs make it so much more accessible for people to add housing stock, and it’s so much cleaner.”

 

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That’s an argument that factory-builders know well and embrace.

 

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Lloyd Alter, writing for Treehugger, said: “…in the comments, the usual objections come up: $480 per sq ft is $200 higher than a conventionally built custom home with nice finishes. Good idea, but it appears there is a high premium for these ADU’s.” Or, “Yet another toy for the rich with no practical basis in reality for the majority of people, and only those who live in the sunbelt and in wealthy enclaves.” Or, “This is beautiful and definitely solving a problem… for people with money. Not sure how it helps homelessness or people with less money.”

Alter then goes through his reasons for rebuffing some of those concerns. For the general public, Alter’s points are okay.

But for modular home builders, or especially for HUD Code manufactured home producers, it misses the tremendous value differential between conventional construction and manufactured housing.

 

Fresh Facts, Figures, Future of Affordable Housing -Comparisons- Conventional Site-Built v Mobile/Manufactured Home Industry Data

 

It is a reminder that California alone could be boom town, for a visionary operation, with or without the support of a savvy trade association.

 

 

It is also a reminder of why MHProNews has lead the factory-built home trade media in tracking how big tech has been nibbling around the edges of factory home building in recent years. See the related reports, linked below.

That’s tonight’s “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

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2) To pro-vide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

3) Marketing, Web, Video, Consulting, Recruiting and Training Re-sources

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

 

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