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Census, HUD Official Residential Construction Report for April 2019, Dare to Compare to Manufactured Housing Data

May 16th, 2019 Comments off

 

CensusHUDOfficialResidentialConstructionReportApril2019DareCompareManufacturedHousingDataMHProNews

Our publisher was laughing this morning after he read an email.  When asked what the joke was, he replied by showing a pro-Manufactured Housing Institute trade media outlet that was announcing their ‘State of the Industry’ upcoming report.  “The state of the industry can be summed up by statistics,” said L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach, as the laughter faded, replaced by a sober look, “which reflects the dismal reality that during an affordable housing crisis, manufactured housing is selling fewer homes today than 15 years ago, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway entered the manufactured home industry by buying Clayton Homes.  Coincidence?

 

He added two question.  “Do you think that trade publisher will look at the underlying issues or evidence that have contributed to the industry’s decline?  Or do you think they will be doing more cheerleading, as more slow-motion consolidation takes place?”

 

BloombergShipmentProductionDataManufacturedHousingMHProNews2019-05-16_1057

 

Time will tell what the pro-MHI echo chamber might produce next. We’ll plan to report on what their latest spin on reality might be.

That said, HUD’s and the U.S. Census Bureau’s Residential Construction report for April, 2019 is out this morning.  Following their data-driven report, there will be a recap of HUD’s new manufactured home shipment data.

 

 

 

U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)               U.S. Census Bureau

 

May 16, 2019

 

HUD AND CENSUS BUREAU REPORT RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN APRIL 2019

 

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for April 2019.

NewResidentialConstructionApril2019BuildingPermitsSingleFamilyHousingStartsCompletionsHUD-USCensusBureauManufacturedHousingIndustryMHProNews

 

Building Permits

 

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000. This is 0.6 percent (±2.6 percent)* above the revised March rate of 1,288,000, but is 5.0 percent (±1.4 percent) below the April 2018 rate of 1,364,000.  Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 782,000; this is 4.2 percent (±1.2 percent) below the revised March figure of 816,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in

April.

 

Housing Starts

 

Privately owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235,000.  This is 5.7 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the revised March estimate of 1,168,000, but is 2.5 percent (±10.4 percent)* below the April 2018 rate of 1,267,000.  Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 854,000; this is 6.2 percent (±13.7 percent)* above the revised March figure of 804,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 359,000.

 

Housing Completions

 

Privately owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000.  This is 1.4 percent (±15.5 percent)* below the revised March estimate of 1,331,000, but is 5.5 percent (±11.9 percent)* above the April 2018 rate of 1,244,000.  Single‐family housing completions in April were at a rate of 918,000; this is 4.1 percent (±13.4 percent)* below the revised March rate of 957,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 381,000. The February report is scheduled for release on March 26, 2019.

 

EXPLANATORY NOTES

 

In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and six months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 3 percent or less.

 

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

 

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MHIlogoMonopolisticHousingInstituteLogoManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMarch2019ProductionShipmentReport

The data above sums up what MHI’s own flatly stated report, without presenting a solution to the problems that their own slogan indicates lies in their purvey.

ManufacturedHousingInstituteMHILogoPhotoOnlyTradeOrganizationrepresentingallsegmentsfactorybuilthousing2019-05-14_0808

MHARRR’s analysis of HUD Data revealed that 8 of the 10 of the top ten states in manufactured housing shipments are behind in year-over-year totals.

 

MHARRshipmentProductionMarch2019ManufacturedHousingReportMHProNews

While MHI in their monthly shipment report doesn’t deny the decline, neither are they addressing the underlying causes, nor have they proposed a remedy via their messages to the industry. Why not?

But somehow, MHI managed to claim in their late 2018 self-promotional video that they had ‘momentum’ – which is true, if they meant reverse momentum. Or momentum in the sense that more consolidation is underway.

MHARRshipmentProductionMarch2019ManufacturedHousingReportMHProNews

While MHARR’s mission is to represent producers in regulatory concerns at the federal level, due to the severity of the concerns, they’ve stepped up and are initiating projects aimed at addressing zoning, placement, and finance related challenges. See the related reports, further below the byline, offers, and notices.

 

That’s our second look today at “News through the lens of manufactured homes, and factory-built housing,© where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Manufactured Housing Industry Statistics and Fast Facts Reports 2007-2015

December 19th, 2016 Comments off
ManufacturedHousingIndustryStatistics2007-2015FastFactsReportSunshineHomeManufactturedHomes--credits-ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-

To see an article that explains the distinction between residential and ‘entry level’ or ‘shade and shelter’ HUD Code manufactured homes, click here. To see a video on that same topic, that includes a discussion of modular homes and appraisals, click here.

The Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) has released a report, “Quick Facts Trends and Information About the Manufactured Housing Industry ” which includes key data and shows growth for the industry.

The report cites that manufactured housing provides a practical, viable and affordable housing solution for residents across a wide range of age, employment and household income demographics.

MHI-ManufadturedHousingIndustryFastFacts20161-PostedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Graphics from attached report, credit: MHI.

Cost and size comparisons of new manufactured and single family site-built homes is also included, showing that manufactured housing is on par with site built housing in terms of quality and the ability to retain value.

MHI-ManufadturedHousingIndustryFastFacts20164-PostedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Credit: MHI

Today’s manufactured homes have experienced a major evolution in the types and quality of homes being offered to buyers,” the report said.

Technological advances are allowing manufactured home builders to offer a much wider variety of architectural styles and exterior finishes that will suit most any buyer’s dreams, all the while allowing the home to blend in seamlessly into most any neighborhood. Two-story and single-family attached homes are but two of the new styles being generated by factory-built innovation. As a result, today’s manufactured homes are offering real housing options for the neglected suburban and urban buyers.

While the MHI report cites that buyers can save ten to twenty percent per square foot compared to conventional site built homes, data from the U.S. Census Bureau provides conflicting data on the matter, showing a more significant cost savings.  The Census Bureau data should be understood as correct on that specific point.

The report from MHI is linked here, and the data from the U.S. Census Bureau is linked here.  ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Housing Starts See Biggest Gains in Ten Years

November 21st, 2016 Comments off
housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditmenofvalue-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Men of Value.

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that new home construction increased significantly in October.

Privately owned housing starts were up 25.5 percent for the month, beating the revised estimate of 1.05 to 1.32 million in September. The number is also up 23.3 percent when compared year on year.

Single-family housing starts increased 10.7 percent from September’s 785,000 to 869,000 in October.

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David Berson. Credit: LinkedIn.

Housing starts jumped in October – climbing to the strongest pace since 2007 – as multifamily units bounced back sharply from an unusual (and temporary) decline during September,” said Nationwide Insurance Chief Economist David Berson. “Single family starts continued their rise as well, as strong demand for owner-occupied housing spurs home construction activity.

What’s leading to the increase may be surprising – millennials.

Housing starts are being driven higher by improved household growth as the economy promotes further job and income gains,” Berson said.

With improved employment and income prospects, millennials are an expanding portion of housing demand as they move out of their parents’ homes – increasingly to form families. 

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Credit: NAHB.

Building permits also increased in October, up 4.6 percent year-over-year according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Combined with housing starts, there is strong builder confidence for the month of November.

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Bill Banfield. Credit: LinkedIn.

The report is a boost of confidence for the housing market, as we haven’t seen a month-to-month leap like this in more than 30 years,” said Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield.

While much of this was driven by the multifamily segment, we cannot overlook the significance of the gains made on single-family home construction – increasing to their highest levels in nine years. Furthermore, continued gains in permits led by the single-family sector keep optimism high as we move toward the winter months.

At least one expert sees even more room for growth.

Controlling for the number of households in the U.S., housing starts are only about 66% of their 50-year average,” said Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin. “Clearly, the homebuilding sector represents an industry that has potential to grow under a Trump stimulus plan.

housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditlinkedinralphbmclaughlin-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Ralph McLaughlin. Credit: LinkedIn.

There’s also the potential “Trump Effect“.

A big question heading into 2017 is how homebuilders will fare under a Trump administration,” McLaughlin said.

While we think some of his broader economic policies might hurt builders, such as immigration and trade policies that could restrict both labor supply and raw materials, we also think he’ll likely implement builder-friendly policies, such as infrastructure stimulus and financial sector reform.

While the construction sector has a high number of undocumented workers, which could be a cause of concern with the Trump Administration’s potential plans regarding deportations, McLaughlin still sees potential benefits.

President-Elect Trump could implement a number of policies to help push the number of starts toward their historical average, but there’s a long way to go,” McLaughlin said.

Though Mr. Trump has discussed demand-side policies that would ease mortgage lending, such as Dodd-Frank reform, we encourage the President-Elect to also focus on supply-side policies given inventory shortages across the country.

The Daily Business News recently provided in-depth coverage on plans for Dodd-Frank reform from the Trump Administration, and a report from Realtor on the 2017 home buying season and the potential impact that millennials could have. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News, MHProNews.