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New Manufactured Home Production, Shipment Data-February 2019

April 5th, 2019 Comments off

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Facts reflect reality. Businesses run on facts, not wishful thinking.  Companies thrive, lose value, or die based upon income, outgo, profits, losses, and their trend lines.

 

Starting 6 months ago, based upon tips from sources within the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), the Daily Business News on MHProNews began raising the alarm that the industry was about to face a downturn.

When MHI was asked about that concern, instead of acknowledging what sources insider their own organization were telling MHProNews, what did MHI officials do?  Duck the questions from MHProNews, and then they produced a video that claimed that the industry had ‘momentum.’  Seriously, that was their term, as the collage of stills from that MHI propaganda video below reflects.

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The more industry professionals and investors look at this now clearly outrageous set of claims by MHI make it appear that they were deceiving – or attempting to – many of their own members. 

LeveragingMomentumCreationNewClassofManufacturedHomesManufacturedHousingInstituteMHILogoDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews600

In hindsight, given that MHI has or could a good idea weeks before others do of what the shipment trends are, how can their claim be seen as anything other than a bold deception?

With that #NettlesomeThings tee up, let’s look at the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform’s latest report, below, and follow it with some related insights and analysis.

 

 

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Continues

Washington, D.C., April 5, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), year-over-year HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in February 2019. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,213 homes in February 2019, down 10.5%, from the 8,065 homes produced in February 2018. Cumulative industry production for 2019 now totals 14,769 homes, an 11.5% decline from the 16,701 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2018.

This production decline, which first emerged during the last quarter of 2018, reflects the cumulative impact of chronic problems affecting the industry’s post-production sector, which substantially and discriminatorily limit the market for HUD Code manufactured housing, thereby offsetting, to a significant degree, the inherent affordability advantage that manufactured homes have over other types of housing. Such negative effects – on both consumers of affordable housing and the industry as a whole – underscore the absolute and urgent necessity of effectively addressing such issues within the post-production sector, including, but not limited to, discriminatory zoning and placement restrictions (i.e., increasingly scarce new developments/communities and individual homeowner placement opportunities) and limitations on federal consumer financing support, and underscore the wisdom of the MHARR Board of Directors in targeting these matters for aggressive action.

 

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The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.

— 30 –

 

There is a new Masthead analysis on this troubling topic, see that as the first of the related reports, linked below.

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That’s this morning’s report on manufactured home industry “News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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State Level Shipment Data Continues to Flash Warning Signals for New HUD Code Manufactured Housing Sales

April 1st, 2019 Comments off

 

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This isn’t an April Fool’s joke.

 

If it is funny in any sense to anyone, it’s only so for those in the industry who may see a perverted value to themselves in the troubling declines in new home shipments and sales in numbers of states across the country.

This data further below is from the Midwest Manufactured Housing States (MMHF).  The MMHF are the parent body for the Louisville Manufactured Housing Show. Recall that the Daily Business News on MHProNews exclusive fact-checks once more revealed arguably false – or at best – misleading claims in recent ‘reporting’ by MHInsider about January’s 2019 Louisville Show.

 

Fact Check, Darren Krolewski, MHInsider Claim on 2019 Louisville Show Attendance

 

Even though the number of displayed models, and other exhibitors declined, MHInsider had the audacity to claim that the number of attendees was a 60-year record.  That misstatement was debunked at the report linked above.

 

New HUD Code Manufactured Home Shipment Data

Not long after the first of every month, the new HUD Code manufactured home shipment data is compiled and released by IBTS for HUD.  The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) each do monthly summaries based upon that IBTS data.

While MHARR has been sounding the alarm for months, MHI’s missives largely ignore or downplay the troubling trends.  Given that MHI claims to be representing ‘all segments of factory built housing,’ how is it that they show so little published concern over the matter?  Doesn’t that in itself play into the controversy that the Arlington, VA based MHI are okay with historically low production, so that consolidators can continue to acquire other firms or locations at discounted prices from their intrinsic value?

Check out the latest data from the MMHF, per OMHA and MHI.

 

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Per the data above, those 5 MMHF states collectively have witnessed an overall decline in new HUD Code sales.

Year – Total Shipments – MMHF States

2017 – 12,548.

2018 – 12,210.

 

As the graphic below reminds readers, these are not the only states that have marked declines.

 

MHARRJan2019HUDCodeManufacturedHomeProductionShipmentReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

While MHARR has raised this issue in recent months, MHProNews has periodically published reports for some years that have aimed at raising awareness on this apparently growing problem. ICYMI, one of several such reports is shown below, that one, from 2017.  Curious minds must ask, how is this even possible during a blossoming affordable housing crisis?

 

While Manufactured Housing Overall Rises, Some Slip Sliding Away

 

Other than MHARR, MHProNews, or MHLivingNews, no one else to date has bothered to seriously look under the hood to see what the causes of this issue might be.  George F. (F?) Allen, for example, has mentioned it.  But when Allen asked industry leaders for explanations, he took at face value the explanations of Kevin Clayton (Clayton Homes) and Joe Stegmayer (Cavco Industries).  No follow up questions by Allen were made in a truly journalistic fashion to help explain the obviously contradictory claims made by the leaders of two of the three top producers of manufactured housing.

A competitor in trade media told me in Tunica last week – with others present – that they don’t publish news, they publish what he himself called ‘fluff,’ said MHProNews publisher, L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach.  “Hey, we’ve done cheer leading at times too, but never based on mere nonsense or wishful thinking. It isn’t fun to publish unpleasant facts, but if the industry is to solve its internal challenges, it must begin with solid facts. Thus the value of fact-checks. Head in the sand, or see – hear – and speak no evil, doesn’t cut it for true professionals and smart investors.”

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The new IBTS data should be out this week.  Check back to get those facts, from your most-trusted source for independent manufactured home industry trade news, analysis, and commentary.  It is all right here on MHProNews.We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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To report a news tip, click the image above or send an email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

NOTICE: You can get our ‘read-hot’ industry-leading emailed headline news updates, at this link here. You can join the scores who follow us on Twitter at this link. Connect on LinkedIn here.

NOTICE 2: Readers have periodically reported that they are getting a better experience when reading MHProNews on the Microsoft Edge, or Apple Safari browser than with Google’s Chrome browser. Chrome reportedly manipulates the content of a page more than the other two browsers do.

(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.

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To see a sample of our emailed news update, click here. To sign up for the factory-built home industry’s #1 headline news, click here or the graphic above.

2) To pro-vide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

3) Marketing, Web, Video, Consulting, Recruiting and Training Re-sources

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

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