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Posts Tagged ‘senior economist’

Reuters on U.S. Housing Price Pace, Manufactured Housing Visions

June 7th, 2018 Comments off

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A poll by Reuters of property market analysists revels that “an acute shortage of affordable homes in the U.S. will continue over the coming year,” said a new report by CNBC.

 

U.S. house prices are slightly over-valued when looking at fundamental valuation metrics such as the median-home-price-to-income ratio,” noted Brent Campbell, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

While jobs growth and wages are rising at the best pace in years-to-decades, pay is not keeping pace with the even faster spike in housing costs. According to CNBC,Annual average earnings growth has remained below 3 percent even as house price rises have averaged more than 5 percent over the last few years.”

We are not seeing a temporary phenomenon. House prices have been outrunning family incomes for several years in the U.S. and while demand has cooled off a bit, the supply side is still very tight,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Financial Group.

Guatieri added, “I think house prices will continue to outrun family incomes for at least another year and it will take some time for demand to slow and to some extent supply to increase.”

Existing home sales account for “about 90 percent of U.S. turnover,” and are forecast to rise slightly and average 5.60 million units in each quarter this year from about 5.46 million units in April.

That would be well below the peak of 7 million units averaged during the previous housing market boom.  All of these are factors which will keep prices elevated and make housing less affordable.

As regular Daily Business News readers know, the National Association or Realtors ™ (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said that the only way to solve this is for builders to get very busy.

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It’s a recipe – at least in theory – for a manufactured housing boom.  But for a variety of reasons, the industry has failed to convert surfers and seekers into more qualified applicants and cash buyers. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

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NorthStar and Manufactured Housing Radix

 

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Building Permits Surpass One Million

November 26th, 2013 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the issuance of new building permits rose 6.2 percent in Oct. to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,034 million units, an increase over Sept.’s 5.2 percent rise to 974,000 units. Of this, multifamily rose 15.3 percent to 414,000 units, while on the single-family side the increase was 0.8 percent to 620,000 units. NAHB senior economist Robert Denk said, “Permits are often a harbinger of future housing activity and the strong showing in the multifamily sector along with stable numbers on the single-family side bode well for a continuing, gradual upturn in housing over the coming months. But consumer and builder confidence could be seriously undermined unless policymakers make progress over looming budget, tax and economic policy issues in the weeks and months ahead.” As MHProNews understands, census figures concerning housing starts in Sept. and Oct. have been delayed until Dec. 18 due to the government shutdown.

(Photo credit: Sue Orgocki/Associated Press)

Many Groups of Home-buyers Squeezed out by CFPB rules?

September 3rd, 2013 Comments off

 vice-wikicommons-posted-daily-business-news-mhpronews-New CFPB imposed guidelines for mortgages loans aren’t just threatening manufactured housing, they are squeezing conventional housing buyers too. Sam Khater, senior economist at CoreLogic said: “It will tighten things further. The largest constraint is the 43 percent threshold,” said Khater. “It will hit more refinances than purchases because a lot of them use a high debt-to-income ratio. It will also hurt home borrowers in distressed environments.” Yahoo! Homes tells MHProNews that new regs are hurting (1) First time home buyers, (2) those who had a career disrpution in the last 5 years, (3) those in high priced markets, (4) the self-employed and business owners; (5) widowed, divorced and seniors – even those with good credit – may have more trouble than pre-housing-mortgage bubble burst. “Baby boomers entering retirement and young adults will feel a disproportionate impact because of their lower income levels.” One group not harmed are the rich, and all cash buyers, as we reported in this recent stories linked. While no one really wants to see housing harmed, this could prove to be an opportunity for manufactured home communities and retailers, who successfully tap into the inability of these groups to buy traditional houses. ##

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