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Homebuilder Confidence Numbers Show Need for Manufactured Housing

May 18th, 2017 Comments off
NewDatafromNAHBonCashSalesforHomescreditNAHBMPAMagMarletteHomes-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Manufactured Housing: a “front and center” solution. Credits: NAHB, MPA Mag, Marlette Homes.

New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) showed that homebuilder confidence grew in May to its second highest point since the recession.

The report, which is compiled from a monthly survey that the NAHB has conducted for 30 years, gauges homebuilder sentiment of current single-family homes sales, and expectations over the next six months.

According to HousingWire, homebuilder confidence increased by two points in May, rising to 70, up from 68 in April. In the survey, a number over 50 indicates that most homebuilders in the survey view conditions as good rather than poor.

NAHBCommentaryOnDoddFrankRollbackcreditBuilderMagazine-GrangerMcDonald-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Granger McDonald. Credit: Builder Magazine.

This report shows that builders’ optimism in the housing market is solidifying, even as they deal with higher building material costs and shortages of lots and labor,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

As the Daily Business News covered here, the Commerce Department reported that single-family homebuilding market rose 0.4 percent to a pace of 835,000 units in April, with single-family starts growing 19.4 percent in the Midwest and 9.1 percent in the West, while they fell 3.4 percent in the South and tumbled 29.2 percent in the Northeast.

While Granger sees optimism, economists polled by Reuters believe that homebuilders are failing to effectively take advantage of a chronic shortage of properties for sale amid complaints about expensive building materials and shortages of lots and labor.

Overall, two of the three components that make up the HMI increased in May, with the sales expectation component rising four points to 79, and the current sales component rose two points to 76. By comparison, the component that measures buyer traffic dropped to 51.

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Robert Dietz. Credit Twitter.

The HMI measure of future sales conditions reached its highest level since June 2005, a sign of growing consumer confidence in the new home market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Especially as existing home inventory remains tight, we can expect increased demand for new construction moving forward.”

 

 

 

Increased Demand… But Can It Be Met?

clayton-factory-hard-hats-ourmidland-posted=daily-business-news-mhpronews-com-

A Clayton Homes factory. The ability to produce quickly and effectively with proper oversight is key to solving housing challenges. Credit: Clayton Homes.

Comments from Dietz expose a significant challenge for the site built housing industry, where a confluence of cost, labor, timing and demand all meet… and cannot be satisfied quickly enough.

With consumer demand for quality, affordable housing that can be delivered quickly, the manufactured housing industry sits “in the driver’s seat” when it comes to being able to fill that gap.

Even though manufactured and modular homebuilders are also susceptible to crunches at times, one of the numerous advantages of factory building is the ability to recruit and train team members who can work effectively in a production center environment. When combined with the ability to significantly cut down on production time, manufactured housing serves as the ideal solution to inventory and housing challenges.

solutionusaffordablehousingcrisishidingplainsight-mhlivingnews-billmatchneertonykovach-posteddailybusinessnewsmhpronews

Credit: MHLivingNews.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##

 

(Image credits are as shown above, and when provided by third parties, are shared under fair use guidelines.)

 

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RC Williams, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

 

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U.S. Homebuilder Confidence, November Report

November 26th, 2016 Comments off
ushomebuilderconfidenceremainsstudyinnovembercreditpeoplespunditdaily-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: People’s Pundit Daily.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index was released on November 16th and remained unchanged at 63. The index is two points below September’s reading, which was the highest in nearly a year. Readings above 50 indicate that builders view sales conditions as good rather than poor.

Ongoing job creation, rising incomes and attractive mortgage rates are supporting demand in the single-family housing sector,” said Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist. “This will help keep housing on a steady, upward glide path in the months ahead.

ushomebuilderconfidenceremainsstudyinnovembercredittwitter-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Robert Dietz. Credit Twitter.

Builders’ view of current sales held steady from last month, while a gauge of traffic by prospective buyers edged higher. But their outlook for sales over the next six months declined slightly.

Even so, builders remain optimistic overall about new home sales, which are running ahead of last year’s pace.

The index shows that sales of new U.S. homes hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units as of September, which is up nearly 30 per cent from a year ago. Sales of new homes were up 13 per cent through the first nine months of this year compared to the same period in 2015.

A healthy job market and low interest rates have bolstered demand for new homes and fueled construction of single-family homes this year. Still, builders complain new construction is being hampered by a shortage of skilled labor and rising costs for ready-to-build land parcels in many markets.  That reality, and other factors, have been cited by MHProNews as reasons why factory-home building could be poised to gain market share, given the right steps by industry companies and leaders.

NAHB Logo

 

This month’s NAHB builder index was based on 325 respondents.

Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsized impact on the economy. Each house conventionally built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, per NAHB data. By comparision, each manufactured home built ads about one job to the economy, because of greater efficency. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

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RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Senior Single-family Market Remains on the Upside

August 9th, 2016 Comments off

senior smiling   masterfile credit postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsFor the ninth consecutive quarter, builder confidence in the single family 55+ senior housing market has remained in positive territory, reports the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to MHProNews.

Builders and developers for the 55+ housing sector continue to report steady demand,” said Jim Chapman, chairman of NAHB’s 55+ Housing Industry Council. “However, there are many places around the country facing labor and lot shortages, which are hindering production.”

One of the three indices for single-family housing marked a gain over the previous quarter: traffic of prospective buyers rose four points to 42; present sales remained at 61 while expected sales for the next six months fell by two points.

Much like the overall housing market, this quarter’s 55+ HMI results show that this segment continues its gradual, steady recovery,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. ##

(Photo credit:masterfile)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Builder Confidence Index Slips in July, but Still in Positive Territory

July 20th, 2016 Comments off

homebuilding  housingwire credit postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells MHProNews builder sentiment slipped from 60 to 59 in July, although economists had predicted it would remain at 60, the highest number it has hit so far this year. All three components of the index—current and future sales expectations and buyer traffic—slipped.

For the past six months, builder confidence has remained in a relatively narrow positive range that is consistent with the ongoing gradual housing recovery that is underway,” said NAHB chairman Ed Brady. “However, we are still hearing reports from our members of scattered softness in some markets, due largely to regulatory constraints and shortages of lots and labor.”

NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said continuing low mortgages and expectation of increasing households indicates a slow, steady growth in the housing market. ##

(Photo credit:housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

New Home Sales Fall in May but Remain above May 2015

June 24th, 2016 Comments off

house sold     Paul j richards afp getty imagesThe sale of new homes fell six percent in May, 2016 to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 551,000 homes, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Census Bureau, but 8.7 percent above May, 2015 sales.

New home sales are up relative to the first few months of 2016 as well as last year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The sales market continues to make overall gains despite month-to-month volatility.”

MHProNews understands from mpamag the inventory of new homes for sale in May was 244,000, a 5.3 month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales price of new homes sold was $290,400, while the average sale price of a new home was $358,900, reports dsnews.

Robert Denk, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at NAHB, said, “April’s initial 691,000 pace was revised down to 586,000 in May, but the upward trajectory beginning in 2012 is clear and continuing. New home sales, as well as single family housing starts, are still well below pre-housing boom norms but up from the depths of the 2011 trough.” ##

(Photo credit: getty images/Paul Richards)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Lending to Single-family Home Builders Rises in Q1 2016

June 8th, 2016 Comments off

mortgage    andyenstallblog  creditA new report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) states that banks increased their lending to single-family home builders by $2.3 billion in Q1 2016, almost 18 percent higher than lending in the same period one year ago. The NAHB’s analysis of of recent Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) numbers indicates that as of March, residential construction loans rose to $63.2 billion, as nationalmortgagenews informs MHProNews.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz says the 18 percent increase is consistent with the trade group’s forecast of 806,000 single-family starts this year, an increase of 13 percent from 2015, adding, “Lending is still in the easing territory but the rate of that easing has been slowing in the past few quarters.” He notes that the supply of available lots remains a stumbling block for small and midsize builders.

FDIC data indicates outstanding acquisition, development and construction loans, which includes commercial building, multifamiy and single-family project loans totaled $284.2 billion as of the end of the first quarter, an increase of 14 percent over the same period last year. ##

(Image credit: andyenstallblog)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

 

Home Builders Sentiment Remains Static; Attracting Workers Remains Problematic

April 18th, 2016 Comments off

homebuilding  housingwire creditThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) informs MHProNews sentiment for home builders was unchanged for April, with the index remaining at 58 for the third successive month, according to marketwatch. Any number over 50 is positive for builders.

The index is based on three sub-indices: the current state of sales fell two points to 63 in April; the index that tracks what home builders expect for the coming six months rose a point to 62, while the measure of buyer traffic rose one point to 44. The buyer traffic index has not been above 50 since the pinnacle of the housing bubble a decade ago. The overall index hit a ten-year high 65 last fall, but then receded.

The stronger job market should support the overall housing market but attracting workers remains a problem. In Feb. unfilled construction worker openings was at a post-recession high.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said builders remain cautiously optimistic. ##

(Photo credit: housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Existing Home Sales Fall, perhaps due to New Disclosure Rules

January 14th, 2016 Comments off

home for saleMHProNews has learned from builderonline that the sale of existing homes in Nov. 2015 fell 10.5 percent month-over-month and dropped 3.8 percent year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This decline marked the first year-over-year drop since Sept. 2014, despite a strong job market.

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) economist Robert Dietz says the drop could be fallout from the new disclosure rules implemented recently by the CFPB that are causing some mortgage closings to be delayed by one or two weeks.

He says the residential construction industry added 23,100 jobs in Dec. following the increase in Nov. of 31,500 jobs. He adds that a falling unemployment rate and declining labor force should contribute to wage gains in 2016. However, he cautions that if employers hire part-time and underemployed workers the wage gains will not be as noticeable.

In any case, he says as labor market conditions tighten labor costs will rise. ##

(Photo credit: housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily business News-MHProNews.

Built-to-rent Homes Increase

November 25th, 2015 Comments off

house under const  naked philly  creditMHProNews has learned from builderonline that construction of single-family homes built specifically as rental units rose to 9,000 units for Q3 2015, compared to 7,000 for the same period last year. Robert Dietz of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) looks at statistics from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design to extrapolate these numbers.

Although the total number of built-for-rent share of single-family homes (only 28,000 homes were started in the last year) is a low percentage of the single-family home portion of the rental housing stock, the increase is indicative of the demand for rental units overall. The low inventory of homes for sale has pushed prices beyond the reach of many would-be home buyers, as tight credit and student debt—especially among would-be first-time homebuyers– has reduced the ability of many to save enough for a down payment, resulting in demand for rental units.

(Photo credit: nakedphilly–home under construction)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Homeownership has Grown Steadily; Rentals are now Surging

September 30th, 2014 Comments off

american_housing_survey_slash_robert_dietzIn the 20 years from 1991 to 2011, the number of owner-occupied homes grew from 59.8 million to 76.1 million, a gain of 27 percent, while the number of renter-occupied homes rose from 33.4 million to 38.8 million, according to surveys conducted by the U. S. Department of Housing and Development (HUD) and conducted by the Census Bureau. While rental demand has been swelling since the Great Recession, the long term trend of owner-occupied homes continues to move upward, according to usnews.com. As the graph shows, homeownership starts shooting up after 45 years, while those in their twenties do not have the income growth—and many have student debt—to achieve homeownership status.

Meanwhile, the number of renters aged 45-64 has also risen due in part to an aging population, and because of the many foreclosures that hit this market during the housing breakdown. Household size has fallen in those 20 years: Single-person households rose from 31 to 36 percent; married-couple families who own their homes fell from 66 percent to 60 percent as the number of children under 18 dropped from 37 percent to 31 percent.

Commentator Robert Dietz, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), tells MHProNews U. S. housing policy needs to address these demographic shifts. As more seniors tend to stay in their homes, remodeling will be necessary to meet changing life-cycle needs. He supports replacing Fannie and Freddie with the Johnson-Crapo housing finance reform measure, and says younger homebuyers pay the most mortgage interest as a share of their income, and are the ones most affected by changes in housing policy.

As Paul Bradley of ROC USA (resident-owned communities) notes from Harvard University’s Joint Center on Housing report in an article for MHProNews, by 2040 one in eight Americans will be over 75, and as housing costs grow in relation to income, the doorway becomes wider for people to choose manufactured housing. Bradley suggests manufactured housing communities could develop great support networks and services for the aging population.  ##

(Graphic credit: usnews.com/American Housing Survey/Robert Dietz