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National New HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Data Summary, September 2018 Analysis

November 8th, 2018 No comments

NationalNewHUDCodeManufacturedHomeProductionDataSummarySept2018ReportAnalysisDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

The most recent data collected on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reflects a small dip in new manufactured home production.

 

According to information and analysis provided by MHARR, the following are the totals for September 2018.

Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,519 homes in September 2018, a 0.8% decline from the 7,580 HUD Code homes produced during September 2017. Cumulative industry production for 2018 now totals 74,207 homes, an 8.4% increase over the 68,419 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2017,” said MHARR.  Their full report is found at the link below.

 

September 2018 Manufactured Home Production Data Shows Slight Flatline

 

The following graphic reflects the top 10 states, since the date shown.

 

ManufacturedHomeShipmentsSept2018DailyBusinessNEwsMHProNEws

 

Sobering Regional and State Data

As MHProNews alone has spotlighted in national manufactured housing trade media, several states are still sliding in shipment levels.  That includes some of the top producing states in the nation.  The industry’s professionals needs to ask and answer the question in their own market(s), with an affordable housing crisis, how can the industry not be doing much better?

 

New Shipment Data, Top Manufactured Home State, Other MH States Continue Slide

 

ICYMI, or need a refresher, see those 2 new, separate-but-related regional reports and analysis, at the links above and below.

 

Another Top Manufactured Home State is Sliding on New HUD Code Home Shipments, More New Data

 

These are post-production, marketing and sales related issues.

ManufacturedHmeIndustryAchieveGreatPotentialAddressingResolvingCauseCorePerceptionIssuesLATonyKovachQuotePresentationPhoto

Where is MHI or other industry leading firms on this?  See the related report, linked further below.  That’s MH “Industry News, Tips, and News Pros Can Use.” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

 

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Direct Relationship – Rule of Law, Sound Information, Equal Access, Profits & Pay – MHVille, Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson

 

MH Sales, Marketing, Management Life Lesson – Plan A, Plan B

 

“Decline of Extreme Poverty in Perspective,” Infographic, Report

September 21st, 2018 Comments off

DeclineOfExtremePovertyInPerspectiveInfographicReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

We’ve been trained by the media to think that things are always getting worse – including on subjects like poverty,” said Visual Capitalist in comments to the Daily Business News on MHProNews.

 

For example,” Jeff Desjardins wrote, “a recent survey showed that 87% of respondents thought that global poverty rates haven’t changed, or have gotten worse, over the last 30 years. However, the exact opposite is true.”

One billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990,” the statement continued, with the provided infographic “putting the important issue into the context of data.”

We’ll look at the infographic, and then after, address how this can prove useful to managers, owners, investors and others.

DeclineInExtremePovertyVCInfographicGlobalPovertyDeclineDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

To see or download the full sized infographic, click here.

 

Facts Matter, and Where Poverty Still Exists

The United States and the West has played a role in spreading rising incomes to much of the world, through trade, investments, grants, and aide. That doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been corruption or waste in those efforts. But it does reflect that conditions have steadily improved.

Let’s briefly note that third world countries have a keen interest in prefab housing.

The chart above doesn’t specify the causes behind why extreme poverty still exists.

FurniPodMiniLoftPrefabHomesThirdWorldCompaniesDailyBusinessNEwsMHProNEws

The videos above and below are for illustration purposes only. The closing still below is interesting, as those are solar panels on the roofs of those prefab units.

Dedicated Daily Business News on MHProNews readers know that Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba, and Haiti are among the nations where it is found, and the causes are often tied to their governments. Rephrased, nations with severe corruption and socialism are key causes.

But so too are areas impacted by war, narco-terror, and other terrorist-connected activity.

The related reports are important to consider, as you share these with team members or those you know that may be influenced by the rising belief – especially among millennials – of socialism in the U.S. See too the videos on Poverty, Inc., Shadows of Liberty, and more in the related reports, linked below.

UnitedStatesGeneralElectionsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

There’s only 46 days to the midterms, and early voting has already started in some areas. Information shared is ballot box potential power. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

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“Toxic Trailers” – Clayton Homes, Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, Clintons – Exposé Videos

Racism – Getting Increasing Prosperity, Stability, Safety, and Certainty

Report: Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) Follows Prior MHProNews Lead

September 20th, 2018 Comments off

 

FollowTheLeaderManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoPivotsFollowsMHProNewsLeadGraphic

A state association member forwarded the following news tip to MHProNews for commentary and analysis, which reflects an interesting pivot by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).

 

The Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee (MHCC), met last week, as the Daily Business News recently reported. Per HUD, the MHCC is a federal advisory committee.

More specifically, under the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA), HUD is charged with gaining approval from the MHCC for various changes and updates to regulations.

According to MHI to various state associations, the “…MHCC approved language for submission to the DOE in response to its Notice of Data Availability and request for information for an energy conservation standard for manufactured homes.” The Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) “has argued HUD should have exclusive jurisdiction over all manufactured housing construction standards, including standards for energy efficiency.”

MHI arguably should have publicly given credit to MHProNews for promoting that position to HUD in published comments submitted by this publication to regulators earlier this year. MHI sources tell MHProNews that their leadership routinely reviews ‘everything that you (MHProNews) do.’

Whatever prompted their pivot – perhaps ongoing publishing pressure of the logic from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform, MHProNews, and/or other industry voices – MHI did make that move last week.

During the meeting, MHI encouraged the MHCC to ensure that the DOE does not move forward with any rulemaking without consultation and guidance from HUD and the MHCC.”

Additionally, MHI expressed concerns to the MHCC about a previous DOE proposed rule for energy conservation that would have created excessive compliance and cost burdens on manufactured housing that outweighed any consumer benefit,” per their emailed statement.

That last line is a textbook definition of chutzpah and hypocrisy, as MHI is on record for previously encouraged the DOE energy rule. One of several possible documentary examples is captured in the item below.

The MHI leadership should know by now that they will be fact-checked on such misleading-at-best, or arguably false, claims.  See the prior report, referenced below, that further documents how MHI previously supported costly energy standards before they finally relented to their current, more moderate, position.

Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) Shifts on DOE Regulatory Rule, Report, Analysis

Per MHI, “The MHCC also approved language stating that “any proposed energy standard must not conflict with HUD standards, which are preemptive” and that the DOE “must work with HUD to develop a clear compliance path to avoid overlapping or conflicting regulations and ensure feasibility, cost effectiveness and clarity.”

MHI leaders, better late than never in following MHARR and MHProNews’ lead?

Apparently missing from MHI’s comments to their mailing list is a related topic to this forwarded tip.  That is the pressure on DOE from the Sierra Club lawsuit. See that under related reports, further below. Bottom line?  They still have plenty of work to do. “We Provide, You Decide.”  © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

Will Costs Rise $6,000 per Home? DOE Energy Rule on Manufactured Housing Revived, MHARR Rattles Legal Saber

Wheat, Chaff, and the Monday Morning Manufactured Housing Sales, Marketing Meeting

72% Blue Collar Workers “Optimistic,” White Collar and More Insights from Porch/Examiner Poll Report

September 14th, 2018 Comments off


PorchWashExaminer72%BlueCollarWorkersOptomisticWhiteCollarSentimentDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

The Washington Examiner recently reported on a survey commissioned by Porch on worker sentiments.

 

Porch is a free online network that links homeowners and repair, renovation. and cleaning professionals.  Their research found concerns about robotics and automation.  That’s a topic that the Daily Business News on MHProNews has reported on several times in recent years, see related reports, further below.

JobSentimentByOccupationClassificationPORCHJobsurvey2018WashExaminerDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews600

But the new survey found “That recession driven grimness hanging over the workplace has lifted and now workers of all shades are feeling good about their future,” said the Washington Examiner.

PerceptionsByWorkerClassificationPORCHJobsurvey2018WashExaminerDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews600

The polling said that 72 percent of blue collar workers and 76 percent of white collar workers are optimistic about their future.

Many workers feel they can find another job easily.  That was confirmed by the latest JOLTs report, see that further below.

SentimentByWorkerClassificationPORCHJobsurvey2018WashExaminerDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews600

The survey found that most blue-collar and white-collar workers are happy, feel respected, and like each other.

Consumer confidence, manufacturers, and business confidence have also been on the rise, as MHProNews has been tracking those trends since the election of President Donald J. Trump.

See the related reports, further below.  This is another survey that may suggest a trend counter to what political polling is indicating, and thus is important to manufactured housing investors and businesses. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

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Manufactured Housing Industry Facts, It’s About More, Per Economic Expert’s Insight

August 1st, 2018 Comments off
AffordableHomeOwnershipManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessnewsMHProNews550x315

The top right graphic is an example of a useful MHI data point. The “Wheat and Chaff” is the wise way to a approach any information source. Keep the good, reject what’s not.

There appears to be considerable confusion about a variety of facts regarding modern manufactured homes, as well as the manufactured housing industry. Why?  Let’s tee up this topic, before diving into this relevant research, and today’s timely fact check.

 

Accurate Information Matters

When reading mainstream media reports, or research being done by third-parties at non-profits, universities, etc., there are often modest to significant errors found about manufactured homes.

During live presentations, hundreds of industry professionals have been asked by our publisher a variation of this question. ‘Does misinformation about manufactured homes (MH) hurt our MH industry’s sales?

Routinely virtually every hand in the room will go up.

So, by an almost universal acceptance by those motivated enough to attend a seminar, accurate information about MH matters.

The reputation of the MH industry – and to an extent, its integrity – can be influenced by the accuracy of the data about manufactured homes.  Rephrased, inaccurate information logically hurts sales, and harms our industry’s image.

Before diving into the focus of this particular fact-correcting analysis, the Daily Business News will remind readers about this potent fact check about tornadoes.  If the general public realized that the odds of not dying during a tornado in 2017 were over 1 million to one in favor of the MH resident, wouldn’t people feel more confident about buying a manufactured home?  Just think, only 1 out of a million died during a tornado in 2017.

Per room after room of raised hands by industry professionals during live seminars, thousands of industry pros believe more of the public would by a manufactured home, based upon accurate information.

“Even When We Had a Hurricane, It Wasn’t This Bad,” Profitably Decoding Post-Windstorm, Survivor of Possible Tornadoes Statement, Impacting Manufactured Home Community, Manufactured Housing Industry

Nevertheless, to date, only MHProNews and MHLivingNews have routinely promoted that kind of data, which is based upon National Weather Service’s reporting.

CompareMobileHomeTrailersPastManufacturedHomesSaferMoreDurableQuoteScholasticiaGayCororationPhotoSmallPercentageDamagedDuringHUrricanesMHProNews

The good news is that some state associations and the NAR (see above) have started to address this, as the report linked above noted.

So, accurate information matters. It matters to:

  • Investors,
  • Bankers,
  • Public officials,
  • Professionals in or considering the manufactured home industry,
  • Affordable housing advocates,
  • Economists,
  • Media,
  • Policy makers, staffs, politicos,

and the public at large.  Accurate information is presumably why MHI wants members to fly-in once  a year to Washington, D.C.  and hand out information packages to staff and members of the House and Senate in the Congress.

 

Why Is There So Much Misinformation About Manufactured Housing?

What contributes to, or is the origin of, some of those factual questions and concerns from third parties?

Let’s note for accuracy and fairness that no one source is fully responsible, nor is any one professional exempt, from striving to learn and accurately share the facts about the modern manufactured home industry.  We value input from our readers, and when an error is spotted, we want to correct it.

Each person reading this is to some degree, is either part of the solution, or part of the problem. That’s reality.

The Daily Business News will look at what should be a simple issue, which regrettably is being mistakenly proclaimed in error to the public, policy makers, influencers, and the media.

Let’s look at a recent data-dispute, and the facts about manufactured housing’s contribution to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  The GDP of an industry helps others measure its significance.  The larger the GDP, the more important the industry.

The Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) has said that manufactured housing’s contribution to the United States of America’s (USA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is “almost $3 Billion dollars.”

Others, depending on MHI’s data, then repeat that claim.

But is that MHI figure, previously disputed several times by MHProNews, accurate?

We asked the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Scholastica ‘Gay’ Cororaton, Certified Business Economist (CBE), to explain how GDP is calculated.

Does GDP use wholesale or retail sales figures?  Note, ICYMI, the report linked below reflects corrections made about manufactured housing by Cororaton in a NAR report.  She as an economist understands accuracy, and has made corrections as needed herself, and thanked those who helped with those corrections.

Realtor University, Journal for the Center of Real Estate Studies, Makes Corrections– “The Market for Manufactured Homes,” by Scholastica ‘Gay’ Cororaton, CBE

Here was her on-the-record reply was to MHProNews.

GDP is measured at the retail price because the retail price determines what  the FINAL user spends.  Not wholesale price because wholesalers still sell to retailers, who then sell to consumers (as the final users),” said economist Cororaton.

She added that “The final users can be consumers, businesses (for fixed investments and inventory), the government, and foreigners (exports).” What that means in part is the sale of FEMA units to the federal government is part of the GDP.

However, the price of imported goods are excluded (GDP is a measure of domestic production),” NAR’s Cororaton said.

ScholasticaGayDCororatonDBEResearchEconomistNationalAssociationRealtorsWashDCManufacturedHousingIndsutryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews507

Composite information from LinkedIn.

She then pointed us to additional authoritative evidence, in the form of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The BEA recently provided MHProNews with the latest GDP data, cited by the Trump Administration in saying that the GDP in Q2 was up 4.1 percent. It doesn’t get more official than the BEA, does it? Cororaton emailed a BEA primer on the issue, available as a download, linked here.

MeasuringTheEconoimyBureauofEconomicAnalysisDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

This is an authoritative reference on calculating GDP, per Certified Business Economist CBE, Scholastica ‘Gay’ Cororaton.. To download the report, click here.

 

MostMenAppearnNeverConsideredWhatHouseIsNeedlesslyPoorAllTheirLivesHenryDavidThoreauManufacturedHomeLivingNews

Many who first explore manufactured housing say or wonder, “this sounds too good to be true.’ Manufactured housing professionals must understand and anticipate that reality. Part of the secret is accurate information, not hyped or error plagued information. For newcomers to the website not familiar with modern manufactured homes, learn more by clicking the image above or the link here.

 

Why Does this Matter to MHVille? Just the Facts…

For some time, MHI has been publishing information that far undervalues the industry’s contribution to the GDP.

Using MHI’s own information, which has rounded up in some cases, the correct GDP – per the BEA’s and CBE Cororaton’s formulas – would be over $6.5 billion a year, not “almost $3 billion…”

 

GeneralINdustryProfileManufacturedHousingIndstiutteMHIDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

This is “updated” in June 2018, but still has errors. Note, there are improvements from some prior fact-checks by MHProNews, but still several errors. How are third parties to know what is accurate about the MH Industry?

Not only is that a more accurate total, but isn’t $6.5 billion more than twice as impressive as “almost $3 billion” for the manufactured home industry?

Then why does MHI use an arguably flawed, and inaccurate total for the industry? Remember, MHProNews has published a higher, more accurate estimated GDP previously and brought that figure to MHI’s attention.

Now that an respected economist with NAR is confirming the correct formula, will MHI finally change that erroneous, embarrassing, and industry diminishing, claim? Will MHI check their math, and make the necessary corrections?

 

Only Two Possibilities

1)        MHI can ignore the error, as they have other mistakes and apparent spin or hypes about some of their claims (think S 2155, for a regulatory example). An example is the correct count on communities. Once more, it’s MHI’s own members, past and present, that have said their current manufactured home community count is too low.  Their June 2018 data, reflects a change that is still inaccurate.  Why?

Frank Rolfe, Dave Reynolds, George Allen, Manufactured Home Community Controversy Continues

 

Note that when we published that article linked above, MHI said that the count was “37,524 land lease communities.” In their June 2018 updated graphic, shown above, they now say almost 40,000.”  Why not make a more complete and accurate correction?

As a result of their ongoing unwillingness to correct such data points, not only media and researchers, but corporations have published incorrect information to potential investors.

So, based upon past experience, it is entirely possible that MHI will ignore the facts, and keep claiming a data point that’s debatably embarrassing to the industry. Or:

2) MHI can do what’s right, and make the correction, which is the minimum that they should do. But will MHI do as NAR’s Cororaton did, and credit the sources for the correction?

ScholasticaGayCororatonCBENARRevisionsRealtorUniversityDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews598x493

Accuracy matters, and giving credit to sources matters to third parties. “The time is always right to do the right thing.” – Martin Luther King, Jr.

Adults make mistakes.

But don’t mature adults admit error, make corrections, and then move on? What will MHI do? What will their action or inaction say about the organization? How will MHI’s actions reflect upon the industry?

Two state associations have broken ranks with MHI, over their stated concerns that MHI has failed to represent their interests.  More recently, they’ve launched a new national communities association (see related reports, linked further below).

State Associations, Companies Quit Membership in Manufactured Housing Institute, (MHI), One Explains in Writing, ‘Why?’

Why would MHI understate, after they’ve been informed previously about the error?  How can they claim it is accidental?  What other reason might make sense?  Could it be that they are trying to understate the industry’s size, to discourage new entries into the industry? Isn’t that similar to what MHI President, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison did by understating the industry potential for more rapid growth? What CEO of a national association argues for slower growth? It sounds pretty to say ‘sustainable,’ but the industry sustained several times this sales level in the past. Who benefits from slow growth?  What normal non-profit organization rewards a CEO like that, with a bonus, contract extension and more pay?

 

A respected non-MHARR industry voice has challenged retailers to organize and leave MHI, similar to what communities are starting to do. He believes that the majors have “weaponized” certain aspects of national association’s work, using these words:

“…If retailers would bow up and tell the MHI manufacturers they want dues paid to a new association rather than MHI there will be change. I do believe the majors have weaponized regulation that further entrench their companies or widens and deepens their moat. Keep my name off it please but I’ll support the efforts if [there] is enough backbone out there.”

MHI members are encouraged to get MHI to change their incorrect reporting of data, just as they are encouraged to get them to be more transparent on other past errors.  See the Howard Walker related report, linked below.  Is there any excuse for repeatedly making the same mistakes?  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ##(News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.) See Related Reports, linked further below.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

Related Reports:

New Manufactured Home Industry National Association Related Statements

Howard Walker, Mensch – Equity LifeStyle Properties (ELS), Manufactured Homes Retrospective

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

Freedonia Group’s Comprehensive Incursion into Manufactured Housing

July 24th, 2018 Comments off

 

FreedoniaGroupManufacturedHomeCommunityComprehensiveIncursionintoManufacturedHousingDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

The truth is often hiding in plain sight. Who says?

 

 Sometimes the best hiding place is the one that’s in plain sight.” – Stephanie Meyer, per AZ Quotes.

 

I’ve found that wherever there is one cockroach in plain sight, many more are lurking behind the corner out of view.” – Harry Markopolos, according to AZ Quotes.

 

The most dangerous and successful conspiracies take place in public, in plain sight, under the clear, bright light of day — usually with TV cameras focused on them.” – L. Neil Smith, per AZ Quotes.

 

The Freedonia Group is one of several deep incursive dives into manufactured homes (MH) and other types of prefabricated housing. This Daily Business News analysis uses their public data, and is not to be construed as an endorsement – or questioning – of either their statistics or methods.

Rather, what this Daily Business News report will do is examine what Freedonia said about the manufactured housing industry in their own words, along with what they see as MH potential, and trends.

 

FreedoniaGroupLogoManufacturedHomeCommunityDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogo

From Freedonia, provided under fair use guidelines.

Manufactured Housing Industry Continues to Consolidate – “Destabilizing  

The name of their article – which was brought to the attention of MHProNews last year by several emails and other electronic tips – is “Manufactured Housing Industry Continues to Consolidate.”

They pointed to the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) as their source for saying:

Manufactured housing is a significant portion of the US housing market, making up about one-tenth of new single-family housing in recent years.  However, the industry’s slow recovery from the economic recession and decreased access to credit for buyers has limited growth in demand for new units and created a competitive environment among producers; one that is destabilizing for many small manufacturers,” wrote Mariel Behnke.

Behnkeis an Industry Analyst at The Freedonia Group, where she covers the US and global construction and consumer products industries,”  stated Freedonia’s brief bio of their author.

As a result of the “destabilization,” Freedonia said, “Consequently, the industry has become increasingly concentrated as small producers close or are acquired by larger manufacturers.  In 2015, the three largest producers of manufactured homes controlled over 70 percent of the US market, a share that has grown in recent years.”

 

As MHProNews has previously reported, with the recent merger/acquisition of Skyline and Champion – the top 3 producers in the summer of 2018 – reportedly hold some 80 percent of the HUD Code manufactured housing (MH) industry’s production capacity.

 

MarielBehnkeLinkedInPhotoProfileIndustryAnalystFreedoniaGroupManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBUsinessNewsMHproNews

Composite collage from LinkedIn.

 

Cavco Industries Market Share Expansion

In 2015, Cavco Industries acquired Fairmont Homes, a significant producer of manufactured homes in its own right.  The acquisition helped Cavco Industries expand its position in the Midwest market through Fairmont Homes’s manufacturing locations in Indiana and Minnesota.  Because of its visibility in the industry, Fairmont Homes continues to operate as an independent brand.  Cavco Industries also acquired Chariot Eagle, a smaller producer of manufactured homes and recreational vehicles with operations in Florida,” said Behnke.

These acquisitions have allowed Cavco Industries to position itself as one of the country’s largest producers of manufactured homes.  Additionally, they have allowed Cavco Industries to become more horizontally integrated, expanding its offerings of both modular homes and recreational vehicles,” according to Freedonia’s research.

 

Clayton Homes Acquires Producer and Retail Locations

LegacyManufacturedHousing-LiquidationEvent-image

Click the above to learn more.

Clayton Homes, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, made several small acquisitions during 2016, expanding both its leading market position in manufactured home production and its network of company-owned retail locations.  In April 2016, the company purchased River Birch Homes.  Its plant became Clayton’s 37th operating manufacturing facility and offers a strategic location in Alabama, near several of the country’s largest state markets for manufactured homes.  In 2016, the company also acquired two distributors, adding a total of seven retail locations to its network of over 300 company-owned outlets,” per Freedonia.

 

Freedonia’s Projections for MH?

Growth in manufactured home shipments is expected to lag that of the overall single-family housing market. While single-section manufactured homes,” said Behnke, “which saw their share of manufactured housing shipments rise during the economic downturn can expect stagnant change through 2020, shipments of double-section manufactured homes are expected to see relatively healthy gains, and will account for over three-fifths of all manufactured housing shipments in 2020. Manufactured homes with three or more sections will remain a marginal share of the market.”

While one can debate the projections, Freedonia said: “Ongoing growth in the housing market will support rising demand for prefabricated housing – the penetration rate of prefabricated housing units in the general housing market is expected to decline slightly going forward. 

They said much more, and for $4,600 someone can purchase their full ‘deep dive’ report. Why does Freedonia say their research should be trusted?

LowerMonthlyPercentCostManufacturedHomesConventinoalHouseRentalHousing2016narRealtorUDaiyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The above is from Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton’s newly updated NAR research report, to learn more, click here. What Freedonia’s research, NAR or others should spark is this question. With facts so strongly in favor of manufactured housing, and the need is so great in almost every market, why are new manufactured home shipments still so low?

 

About the Freedonia Group

The Freedonia Group is a leading international industry market research company that provides its clients with information and analysis needed to make informed strategic decisions for their businesses. Studies help clients identify business opportunities, develop strategies, make investment decisions and evaluate opportunities and threats. Freedonia research is designed to deliver unbiased views and reliable outlooks to assist clients in making the right decisions. Freedonia capitalizes on the resources of its proprietary in-house research team of experienced economists, professional analysts, industry researchers and editorial groups. Freedonia covers a diverse group of industries throughout the United States and other world markets,” per the company.

Freedonia’s literature also notes that they’re a division of MarketResearch.com, “With offices in London, New York City, and Washington D.C., MarketResearch.com is the leading provider of global market intelligence products and services. With research reports from more than 720 top consulting and advisory firms, MarketResearch.com offers instant online access to the world’s most extensive database of expert insights on industries, companies, products, and trends.”

 

Why Does it Matter to MHVille, or Investors?

The short answer is that Freedonia’s data largely parallels the conclusions of distinct and similar information previously researched and reported by MHProNews.

Nor are Freedonia or MHProNews alone. 

  • GuruFocus went a step beyond, and pointed to Berkshire Hathaway and their manufactured housing brands Clayton Homes, et al, as being examples of Warren Buffett’s “strategic Moat” as a means of creating a monopoly. 
  • The Seattle Times expressed it differently, but likewise thinks their brands behave as a monopoly.  The Seattle Times said several federal investigations against Clayton and Buffett’s Berkshire brands are underway.

 

The Atlantic reported on and projected years ago the continued consolidation of the industry, which Freedonia now recaps.

 

The Nation cited Warren Buffett and Clayton Homes as monopolistic, as has CFED turned Prosperity Now in calling their lending arms 21st Mortgage Corp, and Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance (VMF). monopolies in American Banker.  That’s one MHI’s Lesli Gooch leapt to defend against. So why hasn’t so Gooch or anyone else at MHI tried to publicly defend or debate that claims and allegations published here?

Progressive “Nation” Reports on Monopolies Cites Buffett, Clayton, Others – MH Industry Impact?

No guts, no glory.  The Urban Institute asked some of the same questions we do, only they came to a slightly different conclusion.  They also failed to mention their ties to Buffett, or that MHI and Clayton had taken part as undisclosed sources in their report. Coincidences?

Urban Institute Ask for Correction in Analysis of their Manufactured Housing Research, “Follow the Facts,” “Follow the Money”

Maxine Waters and other Congressional Democrats called Clayton and their lenders a “near monopoly,” and leveled charges of racism, the later charge Clayton denied.

 

CongressAsksDOJInvestigateClaytonHomesCreditTwitterWikipediaMHProNews

See report, linked here. U.S. Representatives Maxine Waters (D-CA), Keith Ellison (D-MN), Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), Mike Capuano (D-MA). Image credit, Twitter, Wikipedia.

What all of these threads – knowingly or not – point to similar conclusions to what MHProNews has been independently analyzing reporting and for MH industry readers and researchers for some time now. 

Thus, the growing number of such reports makes it increasingly difficult for those in MHI or with a Berkshire brand to deny what so many see as the self-evident truth.

21stMortgageCorpLogoLetterheadJan302009TimWilliamsRetailersBrokersCutSpecifiedLendingMonopolisticPloyConcernManufacturedHomeDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

This document was provided as a news tip to MHProNews. To see Smoking Gun 3, click below.

Smoking Gun 3 – Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage Corp Tim Williams – Manufactured Home Lending, Sales Grab?

 

MHI-21stMortgageKevinClaytonClaytonHomesManufacturedHoomeCorporationsPlantsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews_001

While several media outlets have reported on the apparent monopoly so many a allege, to date, only MHProNews has documented how that Berkshire strategic moat has worked in practice. Tim Williams, Warren Buffett and Kevin Clayton – and MHI – supplied the evidence, using their own words. http://www.mhpronews.com/blogs/daily-business-news/was-the-urban-institute-misled-duped-or-part-of-a-manufactured-housing-industry-scam/

While some outside media and sources in or out of the HUD Code manufactured home industry have called the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) a tool of Berkshire, what they have not yet done is verify that most state association executives are unwilling to publicly contradict any MHI dictum.

The reasons, later confirmed by additional industry sources, are in the Gold Rules report linked above.

 

The Bottom Lines?

While the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has raised similar issues, most of the industry’s trade media are largely silent on the topics of consolidation and control of the industry.

Only MHProNews has provided the documents and videos that spell out in

   Warren Buffett’s,

   Clayton CEO Kevin Clayton,

   21st Mortgage CEO and former MHI Chairman Tim Williams

    each in their own words – describe how choking off capital and credit arguably forced the consolidations that Freedonia or others cited above have noted.  See the charts, videos and links from this article for more insights, evidence, and details. 

 

Hiding in Plain Sight

So isn’t all of that the uncomfortable truth, hiding in plain sight?

MHVillage, has debatably become a de facto publishing mouth piece for MHI.

Frank Rolfe, who previously criticized MHI, stopped doing so. Did it have anything to do with Berkshire Hathaway brands upping their financial connections with “Frank and Dave” Reynolds trade communications, and related operations. Was it a coincidence that more cash brought about their silence?

Frank Rolfe Blasts MHI for Poor Media Engagement, Industry Reactions

Other trade voices have been previously examined by MHProNews. One trade publisher frankly admitted to the Daily Business News that what we publish is what others of thousands are talking about, but no one else will write about as we have. 

Another publisher said just last week that he liked our new format. But they’re getting apparently paid by MHI, and so they too are largely silent on the topics which matter to independents. 

Two state associations, not as beholden to Berkshire as others, quit MHI last year, and are now formalizing a new national trade body for communities.  That’s a vote of no confidence.

New Manufactured Home Industry National Association Related Statements

Isn’t the truth about MHI acting as a tool for domination – by what MHI award winner Marty Lavin called “the big boys” – increasingly self evident?

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

That’s a question Freedonia didn’t publicly answer. But isn’t it a reasonable conclusion, based on growing consolidation?

Note again how their research put it, ”…decreased access to credit for buyers has limited growth in demand for new units and created a competitive environment among producers; one that is destabilizing for many small manufacturers,” wrote Behnke.

Isn’t that Smoking Gun 3 in a nutshell? Isn’t the consequence of Buffett’s strategic Moat? 

A new, related Daily Business News report will be forthcoming.

Meanwhile, linked reports will provide details and context found no where else in MHVille, or beyond. That’s “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes, and Factory Built Housing.” © Where “We Provide, You Decide.”  © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)  See Related Report, Linked Below.

 

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To report a news tip, click the image above or send an email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.EmailedMHProNewsHeadlineNewsDailyBusinessNews

2) To provide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What are the FACTS about Manufactured Housing Industry Traffic vs. Real Estate? MHVillage, MHProNews, Manufactured Housing Institute Data

Lawsuits for Triple Damages – Anti-Trust, Anti-Monopoly Law, Manufactured Housing, and You

Town’s Stance Against “Mobile Homes” Caused Division, Uncertainty – MH Association Reacts, Video, Report

July 20th, 2018 Comments off

WelcometoMcBeeMarkDillardSCManufacturedHousingInstituteDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

In May, the McBee Town Council passed a temporary moratorium on manufactured homes from being placed in that town’s city limits.

 

WISTV reports that the motion read, “Mobile Homes are prohibited from being placed on any lot within the town limits of McBee, South Carolina and any current uninhabited mobile homes cannot be occupied and that the Mobile Home Ordinance will be reviewed and updated within the next 90 days.”

I’m a single mother of four kids. I’m going to try not to cry,” said Carrie Johnson, with her voice faltering with emotion. “I’m mad, I’m angry, and I’m hurt.”

Johnson, and her four daughters had been living in two-room single section home, stated WISTV, but then she got good news: a plan to rent a double wide1 and move it to the small town of McBee.”

I’ve seen pictures of it, and it’s beautiful. To me, it would be their mansion,” she said of the manufactured home.

The sudden controversy has caused some like Johnson to feel less than welcome, said WISTV. The resident feels like she’s thought of as “trailer trash” or a “second-class citizen” in the Town of McBee, “a town where some estimate there are more mobile homes1 than stick-built homes.”

But Johnson says that slice of her American Dream is now uncertain, due to McBee’s planned change in their ordinance.

According to a councilman Kemp McLeod, McBee simply isn’t discriminating at all. “It’s not the intent of the town to judge anybody,” he said. The town needed to make sure manufactured homes weren’t blocking right-of-ways, were hooking up to the water system correctly, and weren’t devaluing homes already here.

But that councilman’s statement reflects a common mistaken notion is disproven by Trulia and a study by two economic researchers, previously reported in the report linked below.

YIMBY vs. NIMBY, Obama Admin Concept Could Unlock $1.95 Trillion Annually, HUD & MH Impact

McLeod’s comment also represents a potential unjust taking, as was a decision in a recent court ruling in a high court ruling in Iowa.

“Unconstitutional Taking,” “Gentrification on Trial” in Recent Oak Hill Manufactured Home Community Ruling

 

Associations, Associations…

The Manufactured Housing Institute of South Carolina is working with the city officials in McBee,” said Mark Dillard, Executive Director Manufactured Housing Institute of SC (MHISC) to the Daily Business News on MHProNews.

We’ve offered to help them put together an updated manufactured home ordinance.  We’ve always found it works well to get with officials during the early drafting stage,” Dillard said.That’s when you can have the most influence.”

That fits with what MHISC’s Ed Schafer said to MHProNews in 2016, who’s praise for forward looking towns hints that there are others that aren’t so open minded.

Zoning, Opening up Urban Infill and Making Sure Citizens who want Manufactured Homes are Heard

 

But the battles in South Carolina – which has one of the highest percentage of manufactured homes in the housing stock – rages on there, and elsewhere in the U.S. too.

ManufacturedHousingShareofOccupiedHousingUnitsBystateCFPB2014WhitePaperManufacturedHomeIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHPronews

Third-party researchers who’ve been contacting MHProNews have asked variations of the following question. ‘Given the national scope of the problem, isn’t this something that a national trade association should be addressing?’

Fair question. Two MHI connected sources suggested to MHProNews today that MHI has not taken any apparent interst in the McBee matter.

It’s one of the reasons why the Washington, D.C. based Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has said that a new national post-production association is needed to supplant what is often seen as the failures of the Arlington, VA based Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) from habitually acting.

Those failures aren’t new, argued former MHI award winner, Marty Lavin, who explained that MHI has long worked in favor of the interests of their largest members.

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

Long time, now former, MHI member George Allen recently said that the problem with MHI is summed up as “Perennial corporate consolidation and power plays among far too few elite producers of HUD-Code manufactured homes, along with far too few purveyors of chattel capital…”

ManufacturedHousingIndustryMonopoly-Oligarchy-GeorgeAllen-PostedDailyBusinessNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryMHProNews-

The graphic above was a prior set of similar comments by Allen, who regular Daily Business News readers know has some of his own controversies.

While some might quibble over Allen’s conclusion, the problem he described echoes a point Sam Zell has also made.  High regulatory barriers results in more consolidation.

ELS’ Sam Zell – Compliance Costs Destroys Smaller Businesses = Consolidation

But beyond the cost to business, is the far higher cost to would be manufactured home owners.

MHI in recent years has responded only after months, or years, of pressures from within the industry, per voices inside and outside of that trade body.

Greener, Stylish Manufactured Homes – Hidden Facts in the Washington Post Manufactured Housing Narrative

That failure to provide genuine representation is among the reasons why the Arizona and Nevada community owners associations have launched their own national body with a focus on communities.

State Associations, Companies Quit Membership in Manufactured Housing Institute, (MHI), One Explains in Writing, ‘Why?’

The steady spread of local jurisdictions attempting to zone out, or outright ban, manufactured homes has led a non-profit to take legal action. For more on that, see the related report, linked below. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

Footnote 1: typo or terminological error is in the original WISTV report. As LMHA’s Steve Duke, JD, has said, “The terminology matters because the terminology defines the construction standards.” 

SteveDukeLMHATheTerminologyMattersBecausetheTerminologyDefinesTheConstructionStandardsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNews1

http://www.mhmarketingsalesmanagement.com/blogs/daily-business-news/your-words-matter-proper-terminology-for-factory-built-homes/

Related Reports:

“’Trailer Trash’? Watch Who You’re Insulting When You Throw Around Those Words” – Buffalo News

 

Proper Definitions, Mobile Home, Manufactured Home, or Trailer House – Civil Rights, Respect, Public Policy, & Value Issues

“Trailer House Trauma,” Fresh Look at Manufactured Housing’s Opportunities

1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.EmailedMHProNewsHeadlineNewsDailyBusinessNews

2) To provide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

3) Marketing, Web, Video, Consulting, Recruiting and Training Resources

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies 2018 – Affordability, Manufactured Homes, and Modular Housing Report

June 28th, 2018 Comments off

HarvardJointCenterForHousingStudiesLogoStateofNation'sHousing2018ManufacturedHomesDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

Since 1988, our annual State of the Nation’s Housing report has provided an overview of housing market conditions in the U.S.,” said Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) to the Daily Business News via a press release.

 

As we mark the 30th anniversary, this year’s report not only examines recent trends, but assesses whether and how key metrics have changed over the last three decades and serves as a yardstick to measure whether or not the nation has met its goal of producing decent and affordable homes for all,” said the JCHS statement.

 

JCHS’ Executive Summary

The inaugural State of the Nation’s Housing report in 1988 noted that the majority of Americans were well housed and some conditions have improved since then. More than 40 million units have been built over the past three decades, accommodating 27 million new households, replacing older homes, and improving the quality of the nation’s housing stock,” said the Harvard researchers’ statement.

Homeownership rates among young adults are even lower than in 1988, and the share of cost-burdened renters is significantly higher, with almost half of all renters paying more than 30 percent of their income for housing,” said the 2018 JCHS report.

Soaring housing costs are largely to blame. The national median rent rose 20 percent faster than overall inflation between 1990 and 2016 and the median home price rose 41 percent faster,” per the JCHS.  “While better housing quality accounts for some of the increased costs, higher costs for building materials and labor, limited productivity gains, increased land costs, new regulatory barriers, and growing income inequality all played major roles as well.”

To help busy professionals manage the length of the 44 page report – and keep it as relevant and useful as possible for manufactured housing industry professionals, investors, and researchers – what will follow are a series of unedited ‘pull quotes’ from the JCHS report.

Fair warning. Modular housing gets very little attention, essentially a modest mention.

HUD Code manufactured housing fares significantly better. Still, there’s not a lot of details in what follows that a well informed MHProNews reader wouldn’t already know.

So why bother?

 

4 Reasons for Factory-Built Home Pros to Read This JCHS Report:

The above noted, why read this? Simply because it’s a million-dollar road map for a variety of reasons, but let’s note 4 of them:

 

  • As noted, the university level data is like a road map – a gold-mine of the opportunities – for manufactured housing or other factory-crafted housing professionals to explore. Almost every page is a description of possible opportunities for the industry.
  • The State of the Nation’s Housing 2018 gives an independent review of data compiled by a respected institution – Harvard – has been doing for 3 decades. Rephrased, it has credibility.
  • It largely confirms or clarifies dozens of reports previously shared on MHProNews from a variety of other sources.
  • It will be an anchor for several planned reports by MHProNews that manufactured housing advocates, investors and others will be able to rely upon.

What will follow are pull quotes, without commentary. The headings will often be our phrasing, not JCHS’. While the Daily Business News will skip some sections, the meatiest material for our audience is covered in the quotated statements below.

The 2018 JCHS entire report, complete with an array of graphics and charts, will be provided at the end of this article.  We’ll conclude with a hyper-brief analysis of our key takeaway from the document. Let’s dive in.

StateoftheNationsHousing2018HarvardJCHSReportCoverLogoManufacturedModularHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Housing Costs

“Another factor is the low level of single-family construction. Despite six consecutive years of increases, single-family starts stood at just 849,000 units in 2017, well below the long-run annual average of 1.1 million. Indeed, only 610,000 single-family homes were added to the stock annually in 2008–2017…

Along with limited land, respondents to builder surveys cite rising input costs as adding to the difficulty of constructing entry-level homes. As a result, the share of smaller homes (under 1,800 square feet) built each year fell from 50 percent in 1988 to 36 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2017. Of this latest drop, 9 percentage points occurred in 2010–2013 alone…

InventoriesofSingleFamilyHousingDown2017HarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHOusingDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

Unlike single-family homebuilding, multifamily construction ramped up quickly after the crash as rental demand surged. From a low of 109,000 units in 2009, construction of multifamily units peaked at 397,000 starts in 2015 and accounted for more than half the gains in housing starts over that period. However, the multifamily construction wave is now moderating, with starts down 1 percent in 2016 and 10 percent in 2017…

This slowdown comes in response to both weaker overall rental demand and increasing slack at the upper end of the market…

Indeed, the cumulative effect of strong growth in housing costs and modest gains in household incomes has left nearly half of today’s renters with cost burdens, including a quarter with severe burdens. The rising cost of homes for sale also raises downpayment and closing costs, making it more difficult for individuals and families to make the transition to owning…

TotalHousingStarts2017SingleFamilyMultieFamilyHOusingSalesHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNews

National efforts are necessary to close the affordability gap. Housing policymakers have many opportunities to address the cost side of the equation, including the increasing size and quality of homes; lack of productivity improvements in the residential construction sector; escalating costs of labor, building materials, and land; and barriers created by a complex and restrictive regulatory system. However, tackling this broad mix of conditions will require collaboration of the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in a comprehensive strategy that fosters innovation in the design, construction, financing, and regulation of housing…

But even if successful, these efforts will not produce decent, afford- able homes for the millions of households that simply cannot pay enough to cover the costs of producing that housing. For these families and individuals, there will always be a need for public subsidies. The federal government’s failure to respond adequately to this large and growing challenge puts millions of households at risk of housing instability and the threats it poses to basic health and safety. Many state and local governments are doing their part to expand assistance, but a more robust federal response is essential to any meaningful progress in combatting the nation’s housing affordability crisis…”

 

HighLevelsMultiFamilyHousingHarvardJCHSManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUsinessNewsMHProNews

Page 8 Before Manufactured Housing Gets Mentioned

(Bold Added for Emphasis. one editorial note is made)

“Nonetheless, entry-level housing still accounts for a small share of new construction. Only 163,000 small single-family homes were completed in 2016, or 22 percent of single-family construction— down significantly from the 33 percent share averaged in 1999–2007. Moreover, manufactured home shipments totaled just 93,000 units in 2017, far below the 291,000 annual average in the 1990s and even the 137,000 annual average in the 2000s

ConstructionofModestsizedHomesRemainsLimitedHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHousingDailyBuisnessNewsMHPronEws

The only JCHS graphic that specifically mentions manufactured housing.

“Modest-sized homes are considerably more affordable for first-time and middle-market buyers. According to the Survey of Construction, the median price for a small home sold in 2016 was $191,700. The average sales price for a new manufactured home in 2017 was even lower, at $72,000. By comparison, the median price for all other single-family homes was $324,700 in 2016…

“With few additions of smaller units, most modestly priced homes are found in the existing housing stock. Indeed, small homes make up nearly half of single-family homes. In 2015, there were 37.3 million single-family homes under 1,800 square feet. The stock of small homes is generally older, with nearly two-thirds (65 percent) built before 1980 compared with 43 percent of larger homes…”

Manufactured housing is prevalent primarily in the South, where some 58 percent of the 6.6 million units nationwide are located. Another 21 percent are in the West, 14 percent in the Midwest, and just 7 percent in the Northeast. Nearly two-thirds of manufactured housing shipments between 2009 and 2017 were also to the South.”

Daily Business News Notice: A more common figure used for all pre-HUD Code and post-HUD Code MH is roughly 8.8 million units.  What possibly explains the difference?  Because about 1 out of 5 MH are mobile homes, not manufactured homes.  We’ve reached out to Harvard and ask for that number to be clarified, and will update once received.

As a result, manufactured homes make up 9 percent of the total housing stock in the South, with especially large shares in South Carolina (16 percent) and in West Virginia and Mississippi (14 percent each). While the share in other regions is only 4 percent, a few states also have high concentrations of manufactured housing, including New Mexico (17 percent) and Wyoming (13 percent). Manufactured housing also provides 14 percent of homes in non-metro communities, more than double the share in the country as a whole.”

YoungAdultsFarLessLikelyMoveThanPriorGenerationsHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNEws

4 Prime Factors Hamper Housing Growth

“First is the shortage of skilled workers. In a 2017 survey of homebuilders, 82 percent of respondents cited the cost and availability of labor as a significant problem…

Second, the cost of building materials has risen…”

Third, developed land has become scarcer. Metrostudy data for 98 metro areas indicate that the number of vacant developed lots declined from 1.26 million in 2008 to just 802,000 in 2017…

Finally, local zoning and other land use regulations can reduce the amount of new construction by constraining the type and density of new housing allowed…

MillenialsMovingtoSomeManufuredHomeFriendlyStatesHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNEws

 

Modular housing, constructed in factory conditions before being transported and assembled on site, could provide at least part of the answer. Including the value of land, the median price for a new modular unit was $217,200 in 2016—nearly $90,000 less than for a new site-built home. To date, however, homebuilders have been slow to adopt this innovation, with only 15,000 modular homes added in 2016. Indeed, modular housing has never accounted for more than 4 percent of single-family construction in the United States. By comparison, modular housing accounts for 9 percent of new homes in Germany, 12–16 percent in Japan, and 20 percent in the Netherlands.”

HomeOwnershipRates1983to2017RisingIn2017HarvardJCHSManufacturedModularHomeIndustryDailyBuisnessNewsMHproNews

It is interesting to note that the rate of home ownership began to rise during the time after the 2016 election. Several confidence surveys have reflected growing consumer and business confidence, which has yielded more home purchases vs. renting.

 

Housing – The Outlook

“The housing sector faces significant challenges in the short term. Labor shortages, rising materials costs, limited land availability, and land-use regulations are all holding down growth in new residential construction. Meanwhile, inventories of existing homes for sale are at all-time lows, pushing up prices and making homebuying more difficult, especially for low- and moderate-income households…

With its oldest members now in their late 20s and early 30s, the millennial generation is forming new households in greater numbers and moving to different states in search of opportunity. At the same time, nearly 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day, raising the average age of US households. Although wealth is growing, homeowners and those at the top have captured most of the gains, and millions of households have little or no wealth. Going forward, immigration will become an increasingly large, albeit unpredictable, source of population growth and therefore housing demand…”

HarvardJCHS2018AffordabilityByMonthlyPaymentsByMetroAreaManufacturedHousingIndustryDailybuisnessNewsMHproNews

Immigration and Housing

“According to Census Bureau data, the number of foreign- born households more than doubled from 7.7 million in 1990 to 17.8 million in 2016, accounting for more than a third of the growth in households over that time…”

 

Housing and Minorities

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Submit confidential or on-the-record news tips, or comments at this linked email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

“Minorities made up half of the nation’s low-wealth households in 2016, up from 39 percent in 1995. They also accounted for more than three-quarters of the growth in low-wealth households between 1995 and 2016. Indeed, as the number of minority house- holds increased over this long span, the shares with low wealth remained consistently high at 52 percent for blacks, 49 percent for Hispanics, and 30 percent for Asians and other minorities. Meanwhile, the share among whites also remained steady at a relatively low 22 percent…”

 

Interstate Migration

“Resuming past trends, total net domestic migration to the Southeastern states of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas rebound- ed from a low of 86,000 in 2009 to 317,000 in 2017. Meanwhile, domestic outflows from the Northeast and Midwest continued to increase in 2017. The three states with the largest net domestic outflows—California, Illinois, and New York—lost 443,000 residents to domestic migration in 2017, more than double the 207,000 net losses in 2011…”

 

Homeownership Rates

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To see a sample of our emailed news update, click here. To sign up for the factory-built home industry’s #1 headline news, click here or the graphic above.

“The national homeownership rate ticked up in 2017 for the first time in 13 years, buoyed by growth in the number of homeowner households. Despite the ongoing rise in home prices, low interest rates have helped to keep monthly housing costs relatively affordable for new homeowners. Still, the upward climb of interest rates, limited inventory of homes for sale, widespread increases in student loan debt, and insufficient savings for downpayments raise important concerns about the ability of many potential buyers to access homeownership…”

 

 

Rising Prices but Relative Affordability

“Continuing a steady upward climb, the nominal median sales price of existing homes increased from $233,800 in 2016 to $247,200 in 2017…

 

In the high-cost Los Angeles market, for example, a household with the area median income would be able to afford the monthly mortgage payments on only 11 percent of recently sold homes. And because these homes include studio apartments and other small units suitable for only one or two people, the affordable options for families are even more limited. By contrast, even a low- income (bottom-quartile) household in Pittsburgh would be able to afford 26 percent of recently sold homes. Such dramatic differences in affordability contribute to large disparities in homeownership across metro areas. Of the nation’s 50 largest metros, Pittsburgh has the highest homeownership rate of 70 percent, while Los Angeles has the lowest rate of 48 percent…”

 RealHomePricesRisingsince2000HarvardJCHS2018manufacturedmodularhousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMhpronEws

Financing

“The FHA and VA shares of home purchase loan originations have also leveled out in recent years following a significant jump during the foreclosure crisis (Figure 24). Indeed, even as the number of 1–4 unit, first-lien, owner-occupied mortgage originations rose from 2.7 million in 2013 to 3.5 million in 2016, the FHA share remained near 20–25 percent. While down sharply from the high of 41 percent in 2009, the FHA share is still well above the 6 percent low in 2005. The VA share held at 10 percent in 2016, up from 2 percent in 2005. Meanwhile, the conventional share of originations stayed close to 60 percent…”

harvardJCHS2018LowestIncomeRentersOutnumbersupplyTheyCanAffordManufacturedHOusingIndustryDailyBuisnessNewsMHproNews

As a reminder to MHProNews readers, the GAO reported that manufactured housing is less costly than typical rent, so this type of data, while troubling for the nation, is an opportunity for manufactured housing industry professionals and investors.

Rent vs. Own

“…However, survey evidence points to continued strong interest in homeowning. The 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations found that 67 percent of renters would prefer or strongly prefer to own homes assuming they had the financial resources to do so. Only 19 percent would prefer or strongly prefer to rent. Moreover, 61 percent of renters think buying a home in their ZIP code today is a somewhat or very good investment, and just 12 percent believe it is a somewhat or very bad investment…

The Survey of Consumer Finances shows that the median net worth of renters was just $5,000 in 2016, about the same in real terms as in both 1995 and 2007. Moreover, fewer than one in three renters had more than $10,000 in financial assets, and only 21 percent had more than $25,000. As a result, only a small share would be able to cover even a 3.5 percent downpayment and 2 percent closing costs on a median- priced home, which amounted to $13,596 in 2016…”

 RentalHousingIncrasesModerateHarvardJCHManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNews

Rentals

“There are signs that the rental market is cooling, although primarily at the upper end. The number of multifamily starts declined slightly over the past year, and expanding supplies of new luxury apartments pushed up vacancy rates, helping to slow rent growth. Although the number of high-income renters is still growing, lower rentership rates among key groups—particularly younger households—may indicate a turn toward homeownership. Meanwhile, the supply of rentals affordable to the nation’s lowest- income households continues to shrink…

The Survey of Construction indicates that nearly half of the rentals completed in 2016 were in buildings with 50 or more units, compared with just 13 percent in 1999. Most other new units were in buildings with at least five apart- ments. In addition, 86 percent of new apartments in 2016 were in properties with swimming pools, up from 69 percent in 1990. Some 89 percent of new units in 2016 also had in-unit laundry services, significantly higher than the 61 percent share of existing units with this amenity…

Both rising construction costs and added amenities have pushed up asking rents. The nominal asking rent for new apartments increased average rents for new units in certain major metros (including Chicago, Miami, and Washington, DC) were $2,000 or higher.”

HarvardJCHS2018appreciationofRentalPropertiesVsSingleFamilyHouisngDailyBusinessNewsMHproNEws

Several sources have pointed to appreciation in manufactured housing too, but that isn’t addressed in this report.  There is a marked rise in the value of manufactured home land-lease communities in recent years, but that is also not mentioned in this report..

Easing at the High End of Rentals

“The national vacancy rate for all rental units averaged 7.2 percent in the year ending in the first quarter of 2018, up 0.3 percentage point from a year earlier. But the rate for rental units built since 2010, as measured by the Housing Vacancy Survey, hit 21 percent in 2017. While not unprecedented compared with the rates for similarly new units in 2007 and 2008, this high vacancy rate far exceeds the 15 percent reported a year earlier…”

 

Shortfall in Lower Cost Rentals

“The nation’s supply of low-cost rental housing shrank significantly after the Great Recession and has remained essentially unchanged since 2015. A National Low Income Housing Coalition study found that for every 100 extremely low-income renters, only 35 rental units were affordable and available in 2016—a nationwide shortfall of more than 7.2 million units (Figure 29). Conditions for very low-income renter households were little better, with 56 affordable and available rentals per 100 households…”

 

Housing Cost Burdens

“More than 38 million US households have housing cost burdens, leaving little income left to pay for food, healthcare, and other basic necessities. As it is, federal housing assistance reaches only a fraction of the large and growing number of low-income households in need. Between the shortage of subsidized housing and the ongoing losses of low-cost rentals through market forces, low-income households have increasingly few housing options. Meanwhile, the rising incidence and intensity of natural disasters pose new threats to the housing stocks of entire communities…

About a third of the households in metropolitan areas struggle to find affordable housing (Figure 35)…

 

Threats To The Affordable Supply

“The National Low Income Housing Coalition reports that the gap between supply and demand for rental units affordable and avail- able to very low-income households is 7.7 million…”

 

Homelessness

“HUD’s Annual Homeless Assessment Report shows that nearly 554,000 people were living in shelters or on the street on a given night in January 2017…”

 

State and Local Initiatives

“According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition database, about 100 state and local programs provide either tenant-based assistance or capital support for affordable rental housing development…”

 

Housing Losses to Natural Disasters

“The 16 major disaster events in 2017 caused a record-setting $306 billion in damages. These events caused destruction of hundreds of thousands of homes and widespread displacement of households across California, Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas. In Puerto Rico alone, storms destroyed or severely damaged an estimated 472,000 housing units…

FEMA direct assistance filled some of the gaps for households without flood insur- ance, providing financial help for 1.6 million households…

The rebuilding process has its own challenges. The three states with significant disaster damage last year—California, Florida, and Texas—have large populations of undocumented immigrants, households that are unlikely to apply for assistance in fear of depor- tation. In Puerto Rico, relief is complicated by the fact that much of the housing stock was built without permits or without regard to building codes…

Recovery will no doubt be long…”

 

MHProNews Analysis in Brief

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has noted before that the nation needs some 8.3 million housing units.  What Harvard’s annual report indicates are an array of other facts that point to tens of millions of possible opportunities for forward thinking HUD Code manufactured housing and modular builders.

 

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

Collage by MHProNews.

 

Earlier today, in the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) noted their request to have multi-family housing units approved by HUD.

Manufactured Housing Program Review Addressed by HUD Secretary Carson during Oversight Hearing

Harvard didn’t in this report look at specific issues such as acceptance, financing, political, zoning, or any other reasons why manufactured housing wasn’t performing better than it is. That said, their report uses correct terminology, and is on balance, respectful of the industry. Harvard’s Eric Belksy has been cited before as saying he expected manufactured housing to surpass conventional housing by 2010.  We know that didn’t happen, some of the debatable reasons why are linked in related reports below.

But the bottom line is this.  There are millions of housing units needed now, and millions more that will be needed in the years ahead.  With the proper approaches, the opportunities are available. With hundreds of billions in capital pouring into the U.S. the best time in about 2 decades to tap those opportunities may be right now.

The entire report is available at this link here.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, commentary, and analysis.)

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Related Reports:

Celebrate National Home Ownership Month, with 26 Cool Prefab Cribs, a $1 Billion Dollar Hybrid Mansion, 4 Fun Videos

Evolutionary American Dream, from Tiny Trailer Houses, Mobile Homes, to “Amazing” Modern Manufactured Homes

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HUD and Census Bureau Report Residential Construction Activity in March 2018

April 19th, 2018 Comments off

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WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new conventional residential construction statistics for March 2018.

In a release from HUD to the Daily Business News, the following facts were revealed.

HUDNewsheaderManufacturedHousingIndsutryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Building Permits:  Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.5 percent (±1.4 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,321,000, but is 7.5 percent (±1.4 percent) above the March 2017 rate of 1,260,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 840,000; this is 5.5 percent (±1.5 percent)* below the revised February figure of 889,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 473,000 in March.

NewResidentialConstructionMarch2018HUDUSCensusBureauApril2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Housing Starts:  Privately owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319,000. This is 1.9 percent (±12.4 percent)* above the revised February estimate of 1,295,000 and is 10.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the March 2017 rate of 1,189,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 867,000; this is 3.7 percent (±11.8 percent)* below the revised February figure of 900,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 439,000.

NewResidentialConstructionMarch2018HUDUSCensusBureauApril2018TrendLinesMarch2013toMarch2018SAARManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsHousing Completions:  Privately owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,217,000. This is 5.1 percent (±16.0 percent)* below the revised February estimate of 1,282,000 and is 1.9 percent (±13.4 percent)* above the March 2017 rate of 1,194,000. Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 840,000; this is 4.7 percent (±12.3 percent)* below the revised February rate of 881,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 317,000.

These statistics from HUD don’t include manufactured housing.  The graphic below from Skyline and Champion reveal that manufactured housing has been underperforming for over a decade.

The latest manufactured home shipment report is linked below.

A new report by Up for Growth reveals that millions of housing units are needed.

Manufactured Housing – Regulatory, Other Roadblocks and Potential Solutions, Up for Growth Research, plus Urban Institute Report Revisited

An in depth look at their housing underproduction report, as it relates to manufactured housing is linked above.  ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Mobile Home Explosion in a Manufactured Home Community Caught on Camera

March 20th, 2018 Comments off

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An explosion at what appeared to be a pre-HUD Code mobile home located in a manufactured home community was caught on a police dash camera.

 

The explosion occurred at the Cypress Mobile Home Park, in Cypress CA, near Los Angeles.

CypressMobileHomeParkCypressCANearLAManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Police not only caught the incident on camera, but first responders also save an occupant of that home.

MapCypressMobileHomeParkCypressCADailyBuisnessNewsMHProNews

 

It was very dark smoke coming out of every window at this point,” said Officer Melissa Grove from the Cypress Police Department, per KABC.  Three different versions of the video are posted below.

 

Neighbors said one man had already been burned, while another was alongside the home attempting to douse the flames. With the fire burning out of control – heroically – officers went in to get him out.

We pulled him. He was hanging on to something very tightly, and that broke, and we got him out right before it blasts,” Grove said.

It was really shocking, especially when you’re not expecting it,” said Officer Ed Pastor from the Cypress Police Department.

 

Orange County firefighters said it was oxygen tanks inside the dwelling that caused the explosion. Firefighters were able to douse the flames before they spread to any other neighboring homes.

 

OCFA-PIOTweetDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

The Take Aways

Industry professionals have numerous possible lessons to learn from this story.

  • The local media’s report appears to be accurate in saying that the residence involved was a true ‘mobile home,’ meaning a unit built before the HUD Code for manufactured housing went into effect.
  • The neighboring homes appear to have been manufactured homes, as dash cam video seems to indicate.
  • As MHLivingNews and MHProNews have often reported, true mobile homes or even older trailer houses are more susceptible to fire than manufactured homes, which are perhaps a bit safer against fire than conventional housing, according to the National Fire Prevention Association (NFPA) research.

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Avoidable Tragedies! Mobile Home Fires vs. Manufactured Home, and Conventional Housing

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