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Latest New Residential Home Sales Data from HUD and U.S. Census Bureau

February 1st, 2019 Comments off

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Big-picture focused manufactured home pros should find the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau to be of keen interest as the latest reality check.

 

The official press release from HUD and the Census Bureau to the Daily Business News on MHProNews is followed by a brief analysis of the data.

 

 HUDCensusBureauNewResidentialSalesNov2018PressReleaseDailyBusinessNEwsMHproNews

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for November 2018

 NewResidentialHomeSalesNov2018CensusBureauHUDDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

New Home Sales

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 16.9 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the revised October rate of 562,000 and is 7.7 percent (±20.7 percent)* below the November 2017 estimate of 712,000.

 

Sales Price 

The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2018 was $302,400. The average sales price was $362,400. 

 

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 330,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate.

 

EXPLANATORY NOTES

In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take three months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, six months for total starts, and six months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2 percent) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percentage change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percentage changes are 90 percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percentage changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised 3 percent or less/

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. In such cases, there is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.

### End of HUD/Census Bureau Press Release

 

Facts are #NettlesomeThings.  Nettles, properly understood, can both sting but also have a medicinal element that can be used to bring healing.  That’s how we use the apt nettles metaphor.

Step back and ponder the huge spread between manufactured home sales and that of conventional housing.  Recall that the Manufactured Housing Institute’s (MHI) President and CEO, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison promised 500,000 new home shipments.  What happened to that public pledge?

The industry’s purported ‘leaders’ were strutting around the Louisville Show on Wednesday, as if they owned the place.  Yet, the results are anemic, compared to the rest of mainstream housing. See the related reports, further below. 

That’s this morning’s MH “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

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MHARR Releases Study Recommending Independent Collective Representation for Post-Production Sector

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comparing Conventional Housing Data for November 2018, to Manufactured Housing Industry Data, Nov 2018

January 3rd, 2019 Comments off

ComparingConventionalHOusingDataNovember2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDataNov2018MHProNews

Here’s the overview for this evening’s report.  First, we’ll look at HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2018 conventional housing data.

 

Then, compare that to the data that was just published today on HUD Code manufactured homes for November of 2018.

Finally, we’ll wrap this evening up with a brief, but relevant to industry pros, advocates, and investors commentary.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for November 2018:

 

MonthlyResidentialConstructionNovember2018USCensusBureauHUDDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,328,000.  This is 5.0 percent (±1.6 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,265,000 and is 0.4 percent (±1.7 percent)* above the November 2017 rate of 1,323,000.  Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 848,000; this is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* above the revised October figure of 847,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 441,000 in November.

 

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000.  This is 3.2 percent (±9.8 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,217,000, but is 3.6 percent (±9.4 percent)* below the November 2017 rate of 1,303,000.  Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 824,000; this is 4.6 percent (±8.4 percent)* below the revised October figure of 864,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000.

 

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,099,000.  This is 0.4 percent (±8.7 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,095,000, but is 3.9 percent (±11.5 percent)* below the November 2017 rate of 1,144,000.  Single‐family housing completions in November were at a rate of 772,000; this is 5.4 percent (±7.6 percent)* below the revised October rate of 816,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 314,000.

 

ResidentialHousingStartsHUDCensusBureauNewconventionalHousingConstructionNov2018MHProNews

— 30 –

 

Let’s put that data in the manufactured home perspective.

 

Fresh Facts, Figures, Future of Affordable Housing -Comparisons- Conventional Site-Built v Mobile/Manufactured Home Industry Data

 

So, at the same time frame that manufactured homes dropped, conventional housing starts and permits – many times higher in retail price – were still rising.

Here’s is the latest from MHARR on the data.

 

Production Decline Continues in November 2018

 

 

 

 

A state association, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) cheer-leader, Amy Bliss-led Wisconsin Housing Alliance (WHA), are still putting out late this afternoon MHI propaganda.  They did so even in the face of such disturbing numbers, as is linked in the report, above.

 

ManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoScreenCpaturesMHIvideostatisticalclaimsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

MHProNews has held MHI accountable for misleading and arguably deceptive statements for years. Those warnings ought to take on a new sense of urgency for savvy pros who think objectively, instead of swallowing the MHI party line.

 

The WHA’s own newsletter is now projecting possible problems for 2019. Really?  After months of MHI claiming all the good they are doing for building on the industry’s ‘progress’?

 

WisconsinHousingAllianceWHAJanuary2019NewsLetterDailyBusinessNewsMHProNEws

 

In defense of state executives in general, there are many who believe they have no choice but to put out MHI’s ‘stuff.’  Recall the Gold Rules report, which arguably still very much applies. See that by clicking the link below.

 

 

The industry’s fundamentals are sound.

  •  Product quality overall and customer satisfaction are good.
  • Third-party reports that take a dive into the facts are often positive.
  • Despite stormy stocks, the economy is overall good too.

The only common sense conclusion that an objective person who studies the issues can come to is that the so-called leaders of manufactured housing are failing the industry.

The Arlington-Omaha-Knoxville Axis (A-OK Axis ) can dress these failures up any way they want to. We are already hearing the whispers of what their spin is going to be when the MHI monthly report comes out, later this month.  We’ll fact-check it for you.

But the Monopolistic Housing Institute (MHI) has been called out, Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage and the Berkshire Brands have been called out for their BS.

MonopolisticHousingInstitutelogoManufacturedHousingInstituteMHiLogoFairUseMHProNews306

Fertilizer is useful for growing certain things, but as a trained MD, let me say that consuming BS is not recommended for humans.

See related reports, further below.  More on this in the days ahead.

Just remember, it has been MHARR that for years has warned the industry that a new post-production association is needed. Today’s data is more proof.

 

MHARR Releases Study Recommending Independent Collective Representation for Post-Production Sector

 

 

 

It was MHI award-winner Marty Lavin that said that MHI was working for the interests of the big boys.  Today’s data is more proof.

 

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make offer a cogent explanation?

 

MHProNews has been alone in the industry’s trade media at giving warnings of what is to come, for some years.

 

AllTruthPassesThrough3stagesFirstRidiculed2ndViolentlyOpposed3rdAcceptedAsSelfEvidentManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBuinessNewsMHProNews

 

As pro-industry trade media, we’ve been laying out the facts, while most others in the industry’s trade media are laying out happy talk that is just hot air.

 

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It’s misguided for anyone to try to spin this into anything other than what it is. A sobering fact check. MHI members are among our sources.  Everyone that wants honest growth should want to see MHI admit their mistakes, and own these failures and arguably deceptive steps they’ve taken. Corrected errors benefits everyone.

 

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This is where the meaning of the tag-line MH Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use” © comes alive, as “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News , analysis, and commentary.)

 

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

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Manufactured Home Production Decline Accelerates in November 2018

January 3rd, 2019 Comments off

 

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The Daily Business News will save its comments for after the new releases below from MHARR on MHProNews.

 

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                   Contact: MHARR                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (202) 783-4087

 

PRODUCTION DECLINE CONTINUES IN NOVEMBER 2018

 

Washington, D.C., January 3, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in November 2018. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,670 homes in November 2018, a 10.8% decline from the 8,602 new HUD Code homes produced during November 2017. On a cumulative basis, industry production for 2018 now totals 90,612 homes,[1] still a 5.8% increase over the 85,657 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2017.

A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from the beginning of the industry production rebound in August 2011 through November 2018  — with cumulative, monthly, current year (2018) and prior year (2017) shipments per category as indicated — are:

MHARRLogoManufacturedHousingAssociationForRegulatoryReformLogoNov2018ProductionShipmentDataMHProNews

 

The latest information for November 2018, does not result in any changes to the cumulative top-ten list.

Although industry production as reported for November 2017 may have been skewed somewhat higher due to the production of disaster response homes for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (insofar as the HUD production reports do not differentiate between FEMA production and shipments and units produced for the general consumer market), the fact remains that production levels remain disappointingly low for a HUD Code industry that should be booming based on the strength of the broader economy, including both job and wage growth, versus the increasing cost of other types of housing. In part, as MHARR will soon address in greater detail, the industry’s difficulty in once again reaching – and substantially exceeding – the 100,000 home-per-year benchmark, is, to a substantial degree, a product of continuing problems affecting the industry’s post-production sector, including, principally, exclusionary zoning affecting communities, related placement issues, and most importantly, the continuing unequal secondary market treatment of the nearly 80 percent of manufactured homebuyers who rely on chattel loans to finance the purchase of their home. Significantly, though, it appears that the post-production sector could be on its way to more effectively addressing these and other issues through independent representation at the national level.  More on this development will be forthcoming soon.

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a
Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the
views and interests of independent producers of
federally-regulated manufactured housing. 

[1] Correcting and updated for a transposition error earlier in 2018.

— 30 —

 

The Daily Business News on MHProNews has been sounding the alarm for months that this was coming.  This pro-industry trade publication has also been cautioning for years that certain states and markets have been going backwards.  All of these are warning signs.  All of this directly refutes certain problematic claims by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).

MHProNews will do its own fuller analysis on this issue in the next 2 days.  Watch for it.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News , analysis, and commentary.)

 

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To report a news tip, click the image above or send an email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

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NOTICE 2: Readers have periodically reported that they are getting a better experience when reading MHProNews on the Microsoft Edge, or Apple Safari browser than with Google’s Chrome browser. Chrome reportedly manipulates the content of a page more than the other two.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

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