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Housing Economists Projections from NAHB, CoreLogic, Nationwide, and MHVille

February 27th, 2019 Comments off

 

HousingEconomistsProjectionsFromNAHBCoreLogicNationwideandMHVilleManufacturedHousingDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

There has been scuttlebutt among talking heads in media about a looming recession for months.  People with the ‘right’ credentials are asked, and they soberly express their opinions – which they are entitled to – as to why they think that a recession is looming.  MHProNews has pushed back against that claim editorially, but the question remains, are those sources that warn of recession right or wrong?

 

Depending on the reporter or anchor involved in such an interviews with ‘experts,’ there may or may not be an obvious follow up question to their claims of a looming recession in the U.S.  The media follow up question should go something like this: ‘Given how strong the economy is now, based upon a raft of largely positive economic data, how is it possible that a recession would hit the U.S. so quickly?’

Just a few bullets.

 

1)    A record number of Americans are at work.

2)    Consumer confidence is near record highs.

3)    Small business confidence is also near historic records.

4)    A record number of jobs are open in the U.S.

5)    The Federal Reserve data, plus other economic indicators, suggest that for the foreseeable term, the economy has no apparent risk of recession, barring an unexpected cataclysm of some kind.

 

With those points in mind, let’s turn to a recent report by the OC Register, which interviewed various officials at a recent builders conference.  Their headline reads “Recession Not Likely Before 2021, Housing Economists Say.”

At a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) conference 3 economists weighed in on this specific topic of an alleged looming recession, says the OC Register.  The bullets below are from their recent report.

  • This expansion will come to an end,” said David Berson, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance. But, he added, “the odds of a downturn in the next year are pretty low.”
  • Berson said the next recession probably won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022.
  • Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Irvine-based real estate data firm CoreLogic, said the risk of a possible recession likely will be high toward the end of 2020 and even higher in 2021 — after the next presidential inauguration.
  • After going up 3 percent in 2018, the NAHB predicts single-family home starts will increase 2 percent this year and an additional 4 percent to 928,000 detached houses in 2020.
  • The slowdown in immigration and the weakness in recruiting young Americans to the construction sector has contributed to a labor shortage that persists and continues,” the NAHB’s Dietz said. “Right now … we’re short more than 300,000 construction workers in the U.S.”
  • I think affordability is going to be the key issue (in how) housing advocates view the housing market in 2019,” Dietz said.

These bullets and factoids ought to spell boom times for manufactured housing.  So why is the industry struggling to achieve a mere 100,000 new homes?

Since the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) claims to represent all segments of factory-built housing, do they bear any accountability for the poor results?

How does one explain the bonuses paid to top MHI staffers, give the association’s failure to achieve the 500,000 new home shipments that President and CEO, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison said could be achieved?

 

 

Road Blocks are Post-Production Ones, Says MHARR

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) routinely cites facts – confirmed by third-party, and HUD research, that HUD Code manufactured housing builders are producing the industry’s best homes ever.  The problems, says MHARR, are coming from the post-production sector.

The issues including zoning and placement issues.

A new report, shown from the linked text-image box below, reflects a publicly undisputed troubling fact.  MHI on several test checks made in recent years by MHProNews has not contacted – much less intervened – several of the zoning and placement challenges that are increasingly impacting manufactured housing.

Why not?

The key phrase from a longer message by an MHI member-affiliate attorney told MHProNews on 2.25.2019, the following, “…For Clearlake [CA] however as a government entity, it should not have different standards for MH than stickbuilt for its code, since the whole idea of federal HUD preemption is to prevent unreasonable discrimination in land use and building standard decisions respecting manufactured housing.”

That report is the first of several related topics that are linked below the bylines and notices.

That’s manufactured housing “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, commentary.)

 

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Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

 

Dramatic Reversal, City Passes Urgency Ordinance Effectively Banning Manufactured Homes, Front & Back Stories

Mobile Home Burns, Woman Dies, Details At Ten – Back Story of Mobile Home Fires, Regulatory Facts

 

Democrats, Republicans Agree – “Manufactured Homes Can Play a Vital Role in Easing” the Affordable Housing Shortage

“Washington Post Article Underscores Clear Need for An Independent Post-Production Association”

MHARR Releases Study Recommending Independent Collective Representation for Post-Production Sector

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Persists – Time For Action Not Excuses

“The Illusion of Motion Versus Real-World Challenges”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday Morning Recap-Manufactured Housing Industry News April 24-May 1, 2016

May 1st, 2016 Comments off

mhpronews_sunday_morningWhat’s New in public focused Manufactured HomeLivingNews.com

Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Conventional Housing and Manufactured Homes Video Report

What’s New in Manufactured Housing Industry Professional News

MHC closing in Minneapolis. CFPB constitutionality challenged. MHARR, MHI spar over DTS and chattel lending. Clayton acquires another site-built home builder. Champion expanding into Kentucky. Drew looking overseas? MH withstands high winds better than site-built. Patrick revenue increases Q1. Iowa modular builder may re-open with new owner. MHC closing, relocation resources available. Affordable housing harder to find. Modular homes built with disposed plastic. MHC receives Fannie Mae refi. Students redesign affordable housing. Much more in news, views and information you can use.

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Champion Homes Expanding Operations in Kentucky

Friday, April 29

Manufactured Home Community Closing in Minneapolis

Clayton Acquires another Site-built Home Builder

Louisiana Pacific Gains more than other Stocks, +2.47%; UFPI ends the week Down -5.94%

MHARR, MHI Spar over FHFA & Duty To Serve Manufactured Housing via GSE Chattel Lending

Murdoch’s Barron’s Reports Incorrect Info about Manufactured Home Industry

Drew Drawing a Bead on Overseas Markets?

Thursday, April 28

Stop-work Order Leads to Uncertain Future of Factory-built Home

Patrick Ind. Reports Revenue Increase of 25 percent for Q1

All Tracked, MH-related Stocks Drop, or remain even, with Patrick leading the Downward Charge

Video Proves Manufactured Homes Tougher than Comparable Site-built Homes

Challenges to CFPB Constitutionality could Create Financial Havoc?

City Unanimously Approves Manufactured Home Siting

Wednesday, April 27

Modular Builder in Iowa may Re-open with New Owner

Kentucky Manufactured Housing Institute Awards Scholarship

Patrick Ind. Gains the Most of MH-related Stocks

Rezoning Requests Approved for MH and RV sites

Manufactured Home Community Closing, Relocation Resources Available

Country Cousin Obtains a Fannie Mae Refi Loan

Tuesday, April 26

Freddie Mac 2016 Forecast: Housing will Continue Growing, GDP to Slow

Drew Industries set to Release First Quarter results

Skyline Plummets 15.5%; Cavco, Drew, AMG Gain

Board Needs More info about Proposed MH/Modular Community

Iraqi Army Vet and Humanitarian Worker Receives Modular Home

Modular House Saves Plastic from Landfill

Monday, April 25

Nationwide Expanding Martinsville VA Modular Facility

Affordable Homes becoming more Scarce

Deer Valley Spikes +26.19%; Universal Forest Products Falls -5.07

Virginia County Recommends Manufactured Home Rezoning Request

Students Compete to Redesign Affordable Housing Complex

Sunday Morning Recap-Manufactured Housing Industry News April 17-April 24, 2016 ##

(Photo credit: MHProNews)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

New Home Sales Drop as other Housing Indices Strengthen

October 27th, 2015 Comments off

pending sale  paul sakuma  AP Photo creditMHPronews has learned from Forbes that new home sales fell 11.5 percent in September to 468,000 units, a drop from the 529,000 units in August, yet two percent higher than home sales in 2014 of 459,000. The median sales price of new homes, however, rose to $296,900 in September, up from $289,100 in August. The average sales price increased to $364,100, up from $343,000 in the prior month.

While new home sales fell, other housing market data has been positive recently: the NAR reports existing home sales rose five percent in Sept., the NAHB’s Housing Market Index gained three points, and the Commerce Dept. reports housing starts increased 6.5 percent in Sept.

The number is to a large extent inexplicable,” says David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide. His theory: New home sales tend to be more volatile than any other component of housing, and housing itself is a volatile economic component. I don’t think this number is telling us that housing is about to go in the tank. I think we’re seeing statistical volatility.

Most economists do not expect a sudden departure from the slowly rebounding housing market, especially given the increasing employment statistics and the low interest rate. However, if the interest rates rise—as the Fed assures us they will–and the unemployment numbers grow, the housing recovery will likely stall. ##

(Photo credit: Associated Press/Paul Sakuma)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Cavco Acquires Manufactured Home Producer Fairmont

May 5th, 2015 Comments off

cavco logoMHProNews has learned from globenewswire that manufactured and modular home builder Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) has acquired Fairmont Homes, Inc. of Nappanee, Indiana through its wholly-owned subsidiary, FH Group, LLC.. With manufacturing plants in Indiana and Minnesota, Fairmont produces manufactured and modular homes and park model recreational vehicles (RVs), and homes built to Canadian codes.

We are pleased to have the Fairmont business and employees join the Cavco group of companies,” said Cavco President Joe Stegmayer. “We believe that Fairmont’s strong production capabilities, reputation for product quality and service and its excellent customer base fit well with Cavco’s philosophy and approach to doing business.

Fairmont’s products will continue to be sold under the Fairmont, Century, Friendship and Harmony names, and Brian Cira will continue on as president of Fairmont Homes.

In addition to manufactured and modular housing, from its headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, Cavco also produces park model RVs and vacation homes, under subsidiaries Fleetwood Homes, Palm Harbor Homes, Nationwide Homes and Chariot Eagle, through 19 manufacturing facilities.

Although the purchase price was not disclosed, the acquisition was funded with Cavco’s internal capital. ##

(Image credit: Cavco Industries, Inc.)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.