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Shifting Momentum, Demographics, Women, the 2018 Midterms, and Manufactured Housing

May 23rd, 2018 Comments off

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If one takes candidates at their word – which is never a given once they are elected  – it must be noted that candidates Secretary Hillary Clinton, and businessman, builder and media maven Donald J Trump each made a range of stated policy positions.

 

Last night, the House passed S. 2155, see that report linked below. The bill gives manufactured housing professionals some benefits and relief from Dodd-Frank.  It fulfills part of the 45th presidents pledge to undo what he said was the economic damage wrought by the CFPB and the Dodd-Frank regulatory regime.

 

That bill which has now been passed by the House and Senate would not have been signed had Ms. Clinton been the president, per her own statements.

By contrast, there is every expectation that President Donald J. Trump will sign the measure that provides relief for the industry on the MLO rule and other fronts.

Also last night, President Trump, addressed the conservative, pro-life women’s group gala, the Susan B. Anthony List. He was welcomed like a rock star.

The video posted will reflect several things that industry leaders, investors, and strategists should consider. Note that the female population is slightly larger than that of men. Note to the charts that will follow.

First, the president is repeating a theme, that the group also spotlighted – “promises made, and promises kept.”

Next, the pro-life group is pledging a serious voter mobilization effort for the fall.

Note that the NRA – the National Rifle Association – has made a similar pledge to the president for supporting candidates that he and his party will back. The president and Vice President Mike Pence are signaling that they will be very active on the campaign trail in much of the rest of 2018.

Reuters’ latest generic ballot has now tipped the midterm race slightly ahead for GOP candidates over Democratic ones. It is a tidal shift from the end of last year.

According to Vote Run Lead, exit polls reported that 53 percent of voters in the 2012 election were women.

In every presidential election year from 1980 – 2008 women have outnumbered men in voting Democratic and the same is true for men outnumbering women voting Republican,” says Wikipedia.

The U.S. Census Bureau tells the Daily Business News that, “Voting rates have also historically varied according to age, with older Americans generally voting at higher rates than younger Americans (Figure 4). In 2016, this was once again the case, as citizens 65 years and older reported higher turnout (70.9 percent) than 45- to 64-year-olds (66.6 percent), 30- to 44-year-olds (58.7 percent) and 18- to 29-year-olds (46.1 percent). However, in 2016, young voters ages 18 to 29 were the only age group to report increased turnout compared to 2012, with a reported turnout increase of 1.1 percent. All older age groups either reported small yet statistically significant turnout decreases (45- to 64-year-olds and those age 65 and older) or turnout rates not statistically different from 2012 (30- to 44-year-olds).”

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There is every indication that the president’s popularity is rising among blacks, Hispanics, and women. He already had a strong lock on Evangelicals, and white men.

MHProNews cited the New York Times polling, our own yard sign straw poll of a Florida manufactured home community, and a straw poll of industry professionals at an MHI event as part of our pre-election projections in 2016 that Mr. Trump would do well among manufactured housing residents and professionals.

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It was part of our MHProNews broader analysis. These were among the reasons for our projecting that he could pull off an upset on election night.

There is no other known group or media in manufactured housing that made similar projections. We editorially supported the Trump candidacy, as being better for business, workers, investors, and our industry.

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While the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) paid for two pro-Clinton speakers in the closing days before the 2016 election, the Kovach family and MHProNews supported Donald J. Trump’s candidacy as the best for the industry, small business, and hundreds of millions of Americans. One of those stories ended up on the president’s campaign website, and hundreds of conservative and pro-Trump websites.

 

Washington Insider Info

While MHProNews doesn’t claim much advantage over anyone else that is willing to dig for data and insights.  We have not yet personally met the president, but we do get several daily media and other briefs from the White House.

There are good reasons to believe that baring the unexpected, the GOP under President Trump’s leadership could pull off yet another surprise in the upcoming midterms.

The president himself is predicting it.

When you listen to the enthusiasm of this crowd from last night, does it remind you of the rallies from his campaign? No ‘entertainment’ was needed.

The theme is “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” It’s a powerful message for a campaign.

Step-by-step, President Donald J. Trump has undone in less than 18 months, much of the 8 year legacy of President Barack Hussein Obama. The Heritage Foundation claims over 60 percent of his agenda is already accomplished.  While that statistic might be debatable, what is certain is that his steady and relentless pace is getting voters to respond.  

Look for our Daily Business News latest U.S. economic report, and how that will play into the manufactured housing industry’s calculations. That surprising snapshot will be published later this morning.  We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

Kanye Controversy, Universal Income, Venezuela, President Trump, Manufactured Housing, First Principles, and You

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Land Lease Community Owner running for Maine Senate

March 30th, 2016 Comments off

Guy_Lebida_mhc_owner_central_maine__credit__running_for_senateGuy Lebida, owner and manager of the Bowdoin Pines Mh Park in Bowdoin, Maine, is running for the Maine Senate, District 23, representing Sagadahoc County and Dresden. A Republican, if elected he would focus on welfare reform, decreasing energy costs and lowering taxes, according to centralmaine.

According to a news release, MHProNews has learned Lebida was a first lieutenant in the Army National Guard as a combat engineer, is a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association and is an executive board member of the Sagadahoc County Republicans.

He will run against incumbent Republican Sen. Linda Baker in the June 14 primary. The winner of that race will face Democrat Eloise Vitelli in November.

Built in 1995, all age Bowdoin Pines has 22 home sites. ##

(Photo credit: centralmaine–Guy Lebida)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Accessing Washington’s Political Power Brokers? Open your Vault.

October 30th, 2014 Comments off

campaign-finance-2-michael-francis-daily-business-news-mhpronews-2With the mid-term elections just a halfway point to the 2016 Presidential Election, the topic of donations to candidates once again has us in disbelief in the obvious padding of campaign war chests from Goliath donors.

Foster’s Daily Democrat  are among those telling MHProNews  that it’s no secret that poorly funded candidates tend to lose and well-funded candidates often win. $100 million dollars spent in a Senate race in North Carolina can buy a victory with an avalanche of TV, radio, internet and social media ads, glossy resumes and promises in your mailbox while volunteers knock at your door.

A CNN  investigation reported that since lobbyists can no longer give elected officials junkets to exotic lands, the candidates are inviting the lobbyists to lavish parties. Come for free, CNN reported, but the suggested donation to the Senator or Congressperson is $2500.

In the most expensive gubernatorial race this cycle, Florida heads the list, with an estimated $77 million spent to air over 137,000 ads. Florida is followed by Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas and Michigan.

According to the reporting of OpenSecrets, an organization tracking political donations and spending, overall ad spending has broken $1 billion in federal elections and state governors’ races, with the total number of ads exceeding 2.2 million.

Top outside groups

According to OpenSecrets, Team Blue (Democrat) managed to force its way into the top echelon of big-spending outside groups – but Republican-leaning groups still occupy the majority of the slots at the top of the list of big spenders.

The outside group with the highest outlays this cycle is Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC closely affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); it has spent $42.6 million. But Senate Majority falls to second on the list when super PAC American Crossroads and politically active nonprofit Crossroads GPS — the tandem of outside groups associated with Karl Rove — are considered together. These two – legally separate organizations, each of which have reported less spending than Senate Majority PAC — work closely; when their efforts are combined, their total spending comes to $46.8 million, giving them the title of top-spending outside organization this cycle. In 2010, this same pair was the top-spending organization, reporting a total of $38.2 million.

The remaining six members of the top 10 outside spending groups are conservative (including American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS). The Chamber of Commerce has disclosed spending $33.5 million this cycle and the National Rifle Association has spent $27.2 million, according to reports filed with the FEC.

Freedom Partners Action Fund, a super PAC that emerged from a network of dark money groups connected to the libertarian political financiers David and Charles Koch, received its first donation just four months ago, but rocketed to eighth on the list of top-spending outside groups, with $18.9 million. David and Charles Koch each gave $2 million to the group.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, he number one donor of disclosed outside money is hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, followed by former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has given $20 million to super PACs, of which 98 percent went to liberal or Democratic recipients.

But despite those top two donors, conservative donors dominate the top 20 — 15 of them are conservative. The three other liberal donors are: Fred Eychaner ($7.9 million), George Soros ($3.5 million) and hedge-funder James Simons (and his wife Marilyn), who have given $3 million.

The top conservative donor to outside groups is Paul Singer, of hedge fund Elliott Management, who has given $9.3 campaign-finance-2-michael-francis-daily-business-news-mhpronews-million. Last cycle’s top donor — both to outside groups and overall — was Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Venetian casino in Las Vegas, who with his physician wife Miriam gave $92 million. This cycle, the Adelsons have given $5 million.

Other prominent conservative donors include Linda and Vince McMahon, who have given $2.6 million, and Robert McNair, the owner of the Houston Texans football team who together have given $3 million.

Topping the list of organizations contributing money to outside groups is the National Education Association, which has given a whopping $22.4 million to outside groups. Following the NEA are a slew of other labor unions — the Carpenters & Joiners Union ($11.2 million), the AFL-CIO ($7.6 million) and AFSCME ($6 million). These unions gave almost exclusively to liberal outside groups.

Whether we break it down by Republican or Democrat, Conservative or Liberal, a SuperPAC, a labor organization, a Special Interest Group, or just a person with a net worth more than some countries, they all want the same thing. Unfettered access to elected officials at the highest levels: The Senate, The House of Representatives, and most of all, the White House.

You decide if that donation can sway a decision on a crucial piece legislation that hurts the American public but helps those with the keys to the vault. ##

(Photo credits: Shutterstock)

michael-francis-daily-business-news-mhpronews-com-(Submitted by Michael Francis to Daily Business News – MHProNews.)

(Editor’s Note: MH related election commentary at this link.)