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Posts Tagged ‘Moody’s Analytics’

Reuters on U.S. Housing Price Pace, Manufactured Housing Visions

June 7th, 2018 Comments off

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A poll by Reuters of property market analysists revels that “an acute shortage of affordable homes in the U.S. will continue over the coming year,” said a new report by CNBC.

 

U.S. house prices are slightly over-valued when looking at fundamental valuation metrics such as the median-home-price-to-income ratio,” noted Brent Campbell, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

While jobs growth and wages are rising at the best pace in years-to-decades, pay is not keeping pace with the even faster spike in housing costs. According to CNBC,Annual average earnings growth has remained below 3 percent even as house price rises have averaged more than 5 percent over the last few years.”

We are not seeing a temporary phenomenon. House prices have been outrunning family incomes for several years in the U.S. and while demand has cooled off a bit, the supply side is still very tight,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Financial Group.

Guatieri added, “I think house prices will continue to outrun family incomes for at least another year and it will take some time for demand to slow and to some extent supply to increase.”

Existing home sales account for “about 90 percent of U.S. turnover,” and are forecast to rise slightly and average 5.60 million units in each quarter this year from about 5.46 million units in April.

That would be well below the peak of 7 million units averaged during the previous housing market boom.  All of these are factors which will keep prices elevated and make housing less affordable.

As regular Daily Business News readers know, the National Association or Realtors ™ (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said that the only way to solve this is for builders to get very busy.

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

It’s a recipe – at least in theory – for a manufactured housing boom.  But for a variety of reasons, the industry has failed to convert surfers and seekers into more qualified applicants and cash buyers. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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ADP Jobs Report for May Released

June 1st, 2017 Comments off
creditMHProNews-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

The numbers are in… Credit: MHProNews.

The monthly private payroll jobs report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics was released today, and it appears that President Donald Trump’s “America First” plans are taking shape.

According to CNBC, job creation surged in May thanks to a jump in construction positions and a boom in professional and business services, up 253,000, which is significantly higher than the expectations from economists surveyed by Reuters, which projected a number of 185,000.

creditCNBC-MarkZandi-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. Credit: CNBC.

The growth is three times the rate of the growth in the underlying labor force,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

So that means the unemployment rate, which is 4.4 percent, is quickly headed to 4 percent. This labor market is rip-roaring and getting really tight.”


Leading the way in jobs created was the services sector, with 205,000 new jobs, professional and business services contributing 88,000 jobs, which represents the best month for the sector in nearly three years, and education and health services adding 54,000 jobs.

The report noted that the construction sector added 37,000 jobs as the building season heats up, while manufacturing grew by 8,000 jobs and mining grew by 3,000 jobs.

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Credit: CNBC.

As Daily Business News readers are aware, the mining sector has been one of the cornerstones of President Trump’s agenda.

Trade, transportation and utilities added 58,000 new jobs, and franchises add 18,400 new workers.

The positive report comes at a time where economists are doubtful that the Trump administration can deliver on its goal of three percent annual GDP growth, in part because the labor market is near full employment.

The report from ADP and Moody’s Analytics are regular precursors to the nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Economists estimate that payroll growth will come in around 176,000, down from the previous month’s 211,000.

 

The Proof is in the Pudding…

BigLeaguePresidentialDealsUnderminesDCNarrativeofStrugglingTrumpAdministrationcreditWhiteHouse1-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

The President and First Lady visit Saudi Arabia. 300 billion in deals were completed during the visit. Credit: The White House.

As the Daily Business News covered in a feature story recently, while President Trump continues to make progress, including the lowest unemployment rate in decades, and the highest consumer, business confidence, and homebuilder confidence numbers in years, along with over $300 billion in deals with Saudi Arabia, what ELS Chairman Sam Zell colorfully called a “cacophony” of Deep State resistance has moved into high gear.

Even with that Deep State resistance, NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan, and industry organizations like MHARR, talked about the potentially massive impact that the Trump Administration could have.

Small business owners are clearly encouraged by the election results, but now it’s time for President-elect Trump and congressional leaders to deliver,” said Duggan.

Federal taxes, regulations, and Obamacare are the three biggest impediments to running a small business in America. Small business owners have high expectations that those problems will be addressed.”

For more on President Trump’s progress, and challenges, click here. ##

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RC Williams, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

 

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President Trump at 100 Days: Numbers, Polls

April 25th, 2017 Comments off
PresidentTrumpat100DaysNumbersPollscreditKCTV5-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingews

Credit: KCTV 5.

As President Donald Trump reaches the magic 100-day mark in office, new polling and statistics show that many American’s believe he’s getting the job done.

According to Lifezette, approximately 73 percent of American voters approve of President Trump’s performance in fighting for American jobs in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released this past Sunday.

As noted, this poll finds no evidence of buyer’s remorse among Trump supporters,” the polling analysis read.

Among those who report having voted for him in November, 96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it. And if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote among 2016 voters.”

The poll surveyed over 1000 voters, with the goal of measuring President Trump’s performance during his first 100 days in office. The poll also showed that a significant majority of Americans believe the President is keeping the pressure on U.S. based companies to keep jobs in the country, and 53 percent see the President as a strong leader.

JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditHeathersHomilies-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Heather’s Homilies.

In addition, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that over the first 100 days, the unemployment rate for 16-24 rear olds has decreased from 10.1 percent to 9.1 percent; the rate for 20-24 year olds has decreased from 8.3 percent to 7.3 percent, and the rate for 25-34 year olds has decreased from 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent.

Over 317,000 non-farm jobs have been created, and there have been surges in both the construction and manufacturing sectors.

Confidence is playing a large role,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff – tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.”

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April 26 marks First Lady Melania Trump’s birthday, shown here in a photo with her husband, President Donald Trump and their son, Barron. Credit: People, shown under fair use guidelines.

A View from the Industry

ToddLambLambInvestmentsMHProNews

Todd Lamb.

Even with the progress that’s been made, President Trump still faces an uphill battle. While there are certainly skeptics in the industry, MHProNews routinely hears from those who are happy and encouraged by the president’s efforts and actions.

This week, Todd Lamb of Lamb Investments told MHProNews,  “Pray for Donald Trump, the President is under constant attack.”

MHARR CEO, M. Mark Weiss, JD, shared similar thoughts with MHProNews in a story, linked here. MHARR’s top staff have praised the early Trump Administration efforts, as the video shown above demonstrates.

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L A ‘Tony’ Kovach, credit, MHVillage.

As well as the markets and new job creation are already responding to his initiatives, where could we be if there wasn’t a non-stop assault on our new president?” said MHProNews  and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach.

Back in November, Tim Williams told MHProNews that, “I am deeply encouraged that less than 24 hours into President Trump’s term, he has frozen new, potentially burdensome regulations.”  For his full comments, click here.

For more on the progress of the Trump Administration, including proposed budget cuts to National Public Radio (NPR) and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), click here. ##

(Image credits are as shown above, and when provided by third parties, are shared under fair use guidelines.)

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RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews

Trump Card: March Jobs Report Delivers

April 6th, 2017 Comments off
TrumpCardMarchJobsReportDeliverscreditFortune-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Fortune.

President Donald Trump is known for his no-nonsense, get things done style. Coming into the White House, he had no plans to change it.

I will be the greatest jobs producer God ever created,” said President Trump just before his inauguration.

Believe me.

 

 

By all appearances, he’s on his way to delivering on that statement.

The ADP March private payrolls report is out, and showed another big jump.

According to CNBC, companies added 263,000 jobs for the month, which is well above the 185,000 expected from economists surveyed by Reuters and also better than the 245,000 reported for February.

JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditHeathersHomilies-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Heather’s Homilies.

Goods producing firms added 82.000 jobs, with construction accounting for 49,000 of that number.

Professional and business services was the leading sector for new jobs with 57,000, and leisure and hospitality added 55,000. Health added 46,000 jobs, manufacturing payrolls grew by 30,000 and trade, transportation and utilities rose by 34,000.

Also of note is where the jobs were created. As part of an ongoing commitment by President Trump to help small business, companies with fewer than 50 employees saw the biggest growth in jobs for March with 118,000, while companies with 50 to 499 employees added 100,000 jobs.

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Credit: CNBC.

Job growth is off to a strong start in 2017,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

The gains are broad-based but most notable in the goods producing side of the economy including construction, manufacturing and mining.

Markets were hopeful yesterday that President Trump could deliver on his pro-growth agenda. The report from the Labor Department is due at 8:30a ET tomorrow morning.

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Juanita Duggan, President and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business (credit, NFIB).

As Daily Business News readers are aware, the January, February, and now March reports reflect anticipation of President Trump’s policies, meetings and movement, including the highest Small Business Optimism Index in 37 years from the NFIB.

We haven’t seen numbers like this in a long time,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan in January.

Small business is ready for a breakout, and that can only mean very good things for the U.S. economy. Business owners are feeling better about taking risks and making investments.”

 

A View from the Industry

Even with the progress that’s been made, President Trump still faces an uphill battle.

As well as the markets and new job creation are already responding to his initiatives, where could we be if there wasn’t a non-stop assault on our new president?” said MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach.

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L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach addressing industry professionals in an educational session.

Back in November, Tim Williams told MHProNews that, “I am deeply encouraged that less than 24 hours into President Trump’s term, he has frozen new, potentially burdensome regulations.”  For his full comments, click here.

MHARR CEO, M. Mark Weiss, JD, shared similar thoughts with MHProNews in a story, linked here.

For more on the progress of the Trump Administration, including proposed budget cuts to National Public Radio (NPR) and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), click here. ##

 

(Image credits are as shown above.)

 

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Jobs Go Boom: Employment Numbers Show Trump Effect

March 8th, 2017 Comments off
JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditHeathersHomilies-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Heather’s Homilies.

For President Donald Trump, the news regarding jobs made for a great morning.

U.S. private sector job creation surging with nearly 300k created last month. Much more than expected!” tweeted Trump.

Today’s report from global payroll firm ADP provides the first look at hard figures from the President’s first full month in office.

JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditUKDailyMail3-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: U.K. Daily Mail, Twitter.

According to CNBC, employment in the private sector surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000.

Construction jobs increased by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.

The total exceeded market expectations of 190,000, according to economists surveyed by ADP.

JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditCNBC-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: CNBC.

February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Confidence is playing a large role,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics on CNBC.

Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.

JobsGoBoomEmploymentNumbersShowTrumpEffectcreditUKDailyMail1-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

President Donald Trump in Orlando, FL last week. Credit: U.K. Daily Mail.

A further breakdown shows that service jobs led the way at 193,000, with 66,000 coming from professional and business services and 38,000 from health care.

Companies with 50 to 499 employees added the most with 122,000, while small firms added 104,000 and large contributed 72,000.

 

Distractions, Dodges, Delays and Disruptions

Even with job growth, President Trump still faces staunch opposition, distractions, dodges, delays and disruptions.

Billionaire George Soros, who supported Hillary Clinton to the tune of almost $10 million to super PACs, along with connections to funding of Black Lives Matter and other “rent-a-riot” organizations, made his position crystal clear in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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George Soros at Davos. Credit: CNBC.

I personally am convinced that he is going to fail,” said Soros.

Failure will come not because of people like me who would like him to fail, but because his ideas that guide him are inherently self-contradictory and the contradictions are already embodied by his advisors.

Soros then elaborated on his comments.

I have described him as an impostor and a con man and a would-be dictator,” said Soros.

But he’s only a would-be dictator because I’m confident that the Constitution and the institutions of the United States are strong enough. He would be a dictator if he could get away with it, but he won’t be able to.

But, not every billionaire sees Trump in a negative light.

SamZellELSCharimanCreditDailyBurinessNewsMHProNews

Sam Zell, ELS Chair, credit, MHProNews.

I think Donald Trump is very smart and has a unique opportunity to change things and lead this country,” said ELS Chairman Sam Zell.

And I think this country desperately is looking for somebody to give us leadership.

 

Impact on MHVille

While the anti-trump side of the media spotlights the Soros-backed “rent-a-riot” protests, businesses are investing billions more in the U.S., and job growth continues, all based upon President Trump’s economic policies.

FromObamatoTrumpAmericaCelebratesProtestsandContemplatescreditCNBC-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: CNBC.

As well as the markets and new job creation are already responding to his initiatives, where could we be if there wasn’t a non-stop assault on our new president?” said MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach.

l-a-tony-kovach-daily-business-news-mhpronews-

L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach is the publisher of MHProNews.com, MHLivingNews.com and MH Consultant.

Back in November, Tim Williams told MHProNews that, “I am deeply encouraged that less than 24 hours into President Trump’s term, he has frozen new, potentially burdensome regulations.”  For his full comments, click here.

MHARR CEO, M. Mark Weiss, JD, told MHProNews similar thoughts, see the story, linked here.

For more on the progress of the Trump Administration, including proposed budget cuts to National Public Radio (NPR) and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), click here. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Oil Price Drop will Cost Jobs, Reduce Home Values

August 28th, 2015 Comments off

housing slides  cnnmoney  creditWhile home values dropped drastically for most of the nation following the housing bubble, the oil-producing states posted housing gains. With crude oil trading at half the price of a year ago, according to nationalmortgagenews, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Alaska may see home prices fall six to 20 percent over the next five years. As MHProNews posted many times in the last several years, modular workforce housing and manufactured housing experienced a strong uptick in oil-producing areas of the country.

Fannie Mae Economist Eric Brescia, in a report, said if lower energy prices reduce demand for shale oil, home values will be flat in Texas in five years.

This is going to hurt, but we won’t see a repeat of the 1980s when Texas was awash in vacant houses,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pa. “Going into this, most of the oil states were vastly undersupplied with housing. That’s going to cushion the blow.

The government estimates lower oil prices have kept $700 a year in each American household. However, it will cost the energy sector about 150,000 jobs from January 2015 to March 2016, and another 150,000 workers in related industries such as pipe manufacturing, says Zandi. ##

(Image credit: cnnmoney)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Analyst Says Housing Market May Fall Further

June 6th, 2011 Comments off

HousingWire reports that Moody’s Analytics says the federal government should do more to help the 14 million underwater mortgages before falling home prices lead to another downturn in the housing market.  Analyst Mark Zandi says plummeting home values could be sufficient to induce more underwater borrowers to hand their keys over to the lender, especially if they can rent something suitable for less than their mortgage payment.  Half of the 14 million owe 30 percent or more than the house is actually worth.  Zandi suggests lawmakers enact more home refinancing options that reduce the principal more aggressively.