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Posts Tagged ‘manufactured housing shipments’

#1 Texas Among States with New HUD Code Sales, Experiences Shipment Drop, Facts Reveal Warning Signs

December 13th, 2018 No comments

 

#1TexasExperiencesShipmentDropFactRevealWarningSignsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

During a widely acknowledged affordable housing crisis, industry professionals and investors should be asking – how is this possible? The chart below provided by an association member reveals that Texas – #1 among the states in new sales – took a drop in new HUD Code manufactured home shipments in October 2018.

 

Texas could handle it, because they are still reportedly up some 18 percent for the year.

 

2018-12-13_1544MHAO7StateSouthCentralUnitedStatesManufacturedHomeShipmentsManufacturedHousingINdustryDailyBusinessNEwsMHproNews

 

That said, Louisiana – the number 2 state in the U.S. for new HUD Code shipments in recent years – per the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) data.

 

MHARROct2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryProductionReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews601

 

As the Daily Business News on MHProNews reported earlier this month, using MHI’s own data, the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) used to project the year end totals reveal that the industry could end up flat.

 

ManufacturedHousingInstituteMHILogoOctober2018HUDCodeHomeShipmentsDeclineDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

“Pants on Fire” – Latest New Manufactured Housing Shipment Report

 

So, while MHI reportedly spent 5 figures to make a slick self-promotion video, that pats their own work on the back, what the data reflects are several warning signs.

See a new, in-depth related-report below.

 

It’s Your Profession – Investment of Time, Talent, Treasure – So What’s Next?

 

Note that instead of addressing this vexing #NettlesomeThings issue, they are still purportedly pumping out happy talk to their own members.

 

Balance

To balance out the above, producers tell MHProNews that they still have months of backlogs.  So, this should be taken as presented.  This isn’t a case of the entire industry being in retreat.

But to avoid the trend line – which for two months is down nationally, and has been trending down in several states for longer – there is a need to be pro-active.

Industry readers should be reminded that a number of associations have told MHProNews that they have ‘no real choice’ but to share “MHI news,” because of saber rattling by Tim Williams.  See that insider information in a prior related report below.

 

 

State executives, MHI members and/or staff, some feds, and those with the GSEs are among those who have been providing information to MHProNews.

MHProNews has invited executives at Clayton, and MHI to address these and other industry concerns.  They’ve routinely declined to comment. Why?

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“Pants on Fire” – Latest New Manufactured Housing Shipment Report

December 4th, 2018 No comments

 

PantsonFireNRCC-LatestNewManufacturedHousingShipmentReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire…”

    part of a children’s rhyme to discourage dishonesty.

 

You want to be very careful about lying;

otherwise you are nearly sure to get caught.”

   Mark Twain, advice to youth, per Speakola.

 

Just because something isn’t a lie does not mean that it isn’t deceptive.

A liar knows that he is a liar, but one who speaks mere portions of truth

in order to deceive is a craftsman of destruction.”

   Chris Jami, according to Goodreads.

  

 

Facts and evidence can be nettlesome things.

The latest new HUD Code manufactured home shipment data is in. And the timing couldn’t have been worse for the Manufactured Housing Institute’s (MHI) new video, which brags about how much they are doing to promote the sales of more manufactured homes.

Can you spell ‘embarrassing?’

 

For the second month in a row, the shipments of new HUD Code manufactured homes are down, albeit modestly. But during the same timeframe that Kevin Clayton, CEO of Clayton Homes, and MHI’s SVP Lesli Gooch have taken to mainstream and other industry news media (not us) to claim how manufactured housing is being embraced as a solution to the affordable housing crisis, the shipment levels have dipped two months in a row. 

Ouch. Embarrassing…

According to the latest data from HUD, and the analysis of the Washington, D.C. based Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), shipments declined .5 percent over the same month last year. 

 MHARROct2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryProductionReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews601

 

As MHProNews has alone been reporting to the industry’s professionals for months, there have been numerous warning signs on the horizon.

It’s not a disaster. But it is a cause for quiet concern among some of MHI’s larger members, and the independents alike. There are firms like Legacy Housing that in their recent IPO filing are reporting sales growth that bucks the national trend.  For more details on that, click the box below for that distinctive report.

Legacy Housing IPO, Lending Tree, & New HUD Ruling Updates

 

But the national data clearly reflects that overall, sales for the manufactured home industry at large have slipped. State data, as the Daily Business News on MHProNews has reported, reflects the fact that at least two of the top ten manufactured housing states examined have been losing sales, not gaining them.  One of those exclusive MHProNews reports is available by clicking the box, linked below, which has distinctive but related data with analysis.

 

Another Top Manufactured Home State is Sliding on New HUD Code Home Shipments, More New Data

 

One informed source with long ties to Clayton has said that there are troubling rumors coming from production centers tied to their parent company in Knoxville, TN. Time will tell.

And this two month dip arguably belies MHI’s razzle dazzle claims in their new video, just as the Daily Business News on MHProNews has been warning.  See the previously reported screen captures of the latest MHI video, presented as a collage, below.  Using their own data, taking them at their word, doesn’t it prove the latest national shipment report clearly demonstrate the opposite of what they are claiming?

 

ManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoScreenCpaturesMHIvideostatisticalclaimsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews 

 

Let’s make it simple.

   Over 1/3 of the U.S. are renters.  That represents millions upon millions of potential buyers.

   The National Association for Realtors (NAR) said earlier this year that the nation needs 8.3 million more housing units.

   The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) says the nation needs for more affordable housing rental units have risen from 5.8 million to 7.2 million units, per Curbed.

   Manufactured homes are the most affordable kind of new permanent housing in the nation, per NAR’s 2018 research.

   Site builders are stalling on sales, due in part to rising costs and interest rates.

   All of the above are historic reasons why manufactured home sales normally should be rising.

   The RV industry went from trailing manufactured home shipments by 3 to 2 two decades ago, to now outselling manufactured homes by a ratio of some 5 to 1.

   If RVs could grow so much, why not MH?

   And yet given all of the bullets above, new HUD Code manufactured home sales are slipping nationally? Two months in a row?

   How can Kevin Calyton, Tim Williams, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison or the MHI staff show their faces at Louisville with these troubling results?

 

See MHARR’s full report, by clicking the linked box below.

Production Flatline Continues in October 2018

 

See last month’s HUD Code shipment data by clicking the linked box below.

September 2018 Manufactured Home Production Data Shows Slight Flatline

 

See our pro-active step one of our manufactured housing solutions report from last night, by clicking the linked box below.

 

#$2Trillion U.S. GDP Growth via Affordable Housing Plan Few Discuss – Introducing #YimbyVictory2020

ManufacturedHmeIndustryAchieveGreatPotentialAddressingResolvingCauseCorePerceptionIssuesLATonyKovachQuotePresentationPhoto

When MHProNews spotlighted that MHI had reputedly done nothing on reaching out to the CFPB in 2017, MHI – perhaps in their embarrassment – began to move to get something done. When MHARR pushed MHI long enough on the DOE energy rule, MHI finally pivoted. It seems that MHI acts for the interests they claim to stand for best when the spotlight hits their lack of action otherwise. Will this story cause them to actually do what their video purportedly claims they do?

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make or offer a cogent explanation?

To better understand the purported deceptions by Berkshire brands and the Arlington, VA based national trade group that they dominate, see the related reports, linked further below. We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

NOTICE: Readers have periodically reported that they are getting a better experience when reading MHProNews on the Microsoft Edge, or Apple Safari browser than with Google’s Chrome browser. Chrome reportedly manipulates the content of a page more than the other two browsers.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

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Crisis of Misinformation, Fact Checks, and Manufactured Housing

Nathan & Mary Lee Chance Smith, Leaders in ‘Anti-Trump Resistance,’ Manufactured Housing Impact?

Clayton’s Miss, Kevin and Tim’s Manufactured Housing Kill Shot, More

Machiavellian “Godfather” – Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, Capital, Lending and Crossed Lines in Manufactured Housing

 

 

HUD and Census Bureau Report, New Housing Sales, April 2018

May 24th, 2018 Comments off

HUDCensusBureauReportsApril2018ResidentialHousingManufacturedHomeDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNews

WASHINGTON, D.C. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for April 2018,” said the joint release to the Daily Business News.  

 

New Home Sales 

Sales of new single-family [conventional] houses in April 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000. This is 1.5 percent (±11.8 percent)* below the revised March rate of 672,000 but is 11.6 percent (±23.7 percent)* above the April 2017 estimate of 593,000,” per their statement.

 NewResidentialHomeSalesApril2018HDCensusBureauManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2018 was $312,400. The average sales price was $407,300.  The trend lines are as shown. 

Those prices included the land.

 TrendLinesNewResidentialHomeSalesApril2018HDCensusBureauManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 300,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate,” the two federal agencies said.

 

CurrentManufacturedHousingSalesDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

For whatever reasons, the residential housing sales data is not paired by the two agencies with manufactured housing data. The charts above are being provided by MHProNews for ease of reference by industry professionals.

The monthly housing report is distinct from the manufactured housing shipments data. 

2017AverageSalesPricesNewManufacturedHomesByRegionDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Some of that information is found above and more is linked below. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

HUD Code Manufactured Home Shipments, Housing Production – March 2018 Data

Fed – Atlanta – Projects Record GDP Growth for U.S., the Detail$, MH Industry Outlook

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SoheylaKovachManufacturedHomeLivingNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-Submitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com.
Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

State of the Manufactured Home Industry, Comparing RV vs. MH Data

November 11th, 2017 Comments off
StateoftheManufacturedHomeIndustryNov2017ComparingRVvsMHDataManufacturedHomeIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNwes

This is part of a series of articles that will examine facts, data, and commentary about the state of the manufactured housing industry.

An objective look at relevant data is one of several ways to obtain a clear-eyed view of the true State of the Manufactured Housing Industry, in November of 2017.

There are two graphics below. One is the national RV shipment data, per the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA).

That is followed by manufactured home (MH) industry data supplied by the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), based upon information generated for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) by IBTS.

 

RVAnnuaShipments2011to2016RVIALogoDataCompareManufacturedHousingIndustryDataDailyBusNewsMHProNews

Compare that RV data to MH shipment totals.ManufacturedHousingIndustryProductionRateIncreasesSince2009ManufacturedHousingAssociationforRegulatoryReformMHARRResearchDataReportsMHProNews

Several questions and points ought to be considered. 

1)    As their name implies, many RVs are sold for recreational use, not for full time use and living.

2)    RVs routinely cost more per square foot than MH.

3)    RVs are often a discretionary purchase – a luxury item – as opposed to a necessity, such as housing, which is the market MH serves.

4)    RVs out-shipped MH by over 5 to 1 last year.

leigh_j_abrams__chairman__drew_ind__directorsandboards

Leigh Abrams, prior chairman, Drew Industries, since renamed LCII.

The focus today is on the facts. But it is worth noting some of the extensive commentary by Leigh Abrams, linked here.  Abrams’ operation has served both the RV and MH industry for decades.

With the affordable housing crisis looming large, the questions ought to include, how is it possible that RVs outsell MH by such a wide margin? 

To be sure, the MH industry is clearly going.  But how many understand the kind of facts shared below by award winning retailers Alan Amy and Stan Dye?

Stan Dye spotlights the widespread misunderstanding between perception and reality, and what happens when well qualified buyers are properly exposed to residential – vs. entry level – style modern manufactured homes.

Alan Amy stresses what’s attracting the billionaires toward MH.

Notice: Part of a Multi-Part Series  

A ‘hub’ article that includes links to other interviews and data points, is found below.

Exclusives! Tim Williams/21st Mortgage Corp, Kenny Lipschutz/Brookside Companies/ HomeFirst™ Certified Communities, Leigh Abrams/Drew/Lippert 

We Provide, You Decide.” © © ## (News, analysis, commentary – celebrating the start of our 9th year.)

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Motley Fool says Manufactured Housing Primed for Bull Run

November 6th, 2013 Comments off

The Motley Fool seems to have added a zero to one of their reports, a very bullish one on manufactured housing. Here are the key excerpts from the report by Arturo Cuevas. “The bulls are pawing the ground at manufactured housing’s corral. Recent gains in shipments of manufactured homes indicate that this sector is headed toward peak levels this year. For the eight months ending in August, manufactured home shipments totaled nearly 400,000 units, up by about 6% from the eight-month period in 2012. Manufactured housing shipments have registered consecutive increases during the last three years, recalling this sector’s boom years in the early ’70s. Total annual shipments in the 2010-2012 period were registered at 500,000, 516,000, and 540,000, respectively, for an annual average gain of close to 4%.”

While MHProNews is also bullish on manufactured housing, we can’t have this kind of error floating around out there. We’ve advised The Motley Fool by email of the no doubt well intended error.  The most recent – correct – shipment numbers are found at this link.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia–manufactured homes readied for shipment)

Modular Shipments continue to Rise

August 28th, 2013 Comments off

national-modular-housing-council-logo-posted-daily-business-news-manufactured-home-pro-news-com- (1)The National Modular Housing Council (NMHC) reports that actual shipments of 3,838 new modular homes occurred in the second quarter of 2013, up 10.6 percent from the same quarter in 2012. Relative to Q2 2012, state shipment results for the second quarter of 2013 showed increases for 22 states and reductions in 12 states. Iowa Manufactured Housing Association Joe Kelly tells MHProNews that “Iowa ranked 4th in the U.S., among 34 states surveyed, in the growth of business in the second quarter of this year, compared to last year’s second quarter.  149 modulars were ordered by Iowa retailers and builders in the second quarter, compared to 103 last year.” For the first half of 2013, 244  modulars were ordered, ranking Iowa 6th highest among the 34 states.” Modular shipments still trail manufactured housing shipments nationally by a significant margin, although there are jurisdictions where mods rival HUD Code manufactured housing shipment numbers. ##

 

(Image Credit: NMHC logo)

U.S. June Manufactured Housing SAAR shipments rose to 50,000

August 30th, 2011 Comments off

Bloomberg reports the following is a summary of U.S. manufactured housing activity from the Census Bureau. The average sales price fell to $58,800 from $63,500 a month earlier.

 


===============================================================================
                          June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.   6 mo   June
                          2011   2011   2011   2011   2011   2011   Avg.   YoY%
===============================================================================
                        ----------- Thousands of units, annual rate ----------
Shipments Annual Rate     50.0   48.0   47.0   47.0   44.0   45.0   46.8  -9.1%
Placements                47.0   40.0   44.0   44.0   47.0   37.0   43.2 -19.0%
Dealer Inventory          22.0   22.0   22.0   22.0   21.0   22.0   21.8  -4.3%
Avg. Sales Price         $58.8  $63.5  $57.0  $59.6  $60.1  $60.8  $60.0  -7.7%
===============================================================================
Note: Data is seasonally adjusted annual rate except for average sales price, data in thousands. 

(File photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)

NAHB’s Crowe: ‘Low rates haven’t helped home sales’

August 24th, 2011 Comments off

David_Crowe_file_photo_credit__BloombergCNNMoney reports that new-home sales fell once again in July, the third straight month of declines. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 298,000. This represents a modest 0.7% drop from a downwardly-revised rate of 300,000 homes sold in June, according to the Census Bureau, but up 6.8% from July 2010 rate of 279,000. “We’ve been bouncing around the 300,000 level for months, for years, really,” said David Crowe, the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. “It reflects continued buyer concern with the weak economy.” Crowe said home sales might weaken even more in the aftermath of the debt-ceiling debate, the downgrading of U.S. debt and the subsequent volatility in the financial markets. “We might see August figures drop because of the market turmoil and the uncertainly it creates in consumers,” he said. The median price for a new home sold in July was $222,000, down about 5.5% from June but up 8.8% from 12 months earlier. Historically low interest rates do not seem to be helping. Applications for mortgages have spiked, but most of the increase is for refinancing old mortgages rather than for purchasing new homes, according to Crowe. Meanwhile, compare this to recently released MHI statistics on manufactured housing shipments, which are currently around the 46,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The manufactured housing SAAR would represent about 13% of single family housing starts, while MHI statistics suggest that the median market share in the past 20 years for manufactured housing has been closer to 21% of all single family housing starts.

(Photo credit: Bloomberg)

 

MH Shipments Drop in April

June 30th, 2011 Comments off

Bloomberg reports shipment of manufactured housing in April fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 46,000 from 47,000 from March, according to the Census Bureau.  The average sales price fell from $59,300 to $56,800 in April.  The seasonally-adjusted dealer inventory remained steady at 22,000, while placements dropped from 43,000 to 42,000, March over April.

Manufactured Housing Shipments Increased for March

May 27th, 2011 Comments off

Bloomberg reports that manufactured housing shipments for March rose at a seasonally adjusted rate to 47,000, up 3,000 over February, and the highest in six months.  On a seasonally adjusted rate, placements dropped 5,000 units February to March, and dealer inventory remained stable at 22,000.  The average sales price increased from $58,600 to $59,300.