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Manufactured Home Production Decline Accelerates in November 2018

January 3rd, 2019 Comments off

 

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The Daily Business News will save its comments for after the new releases below from MHARR on MHProNews.

 

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                   Contact: MHARR                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (202) 783-4087

 

PRODUCTION DECLINE CONTINUES IN NOVEMBER 2018

 

Washington, D.C., January 3, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in November 2018. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,670 homes in November 2018, a 10.8% decline from the 8,602 new HUD Code homes produced during November 2017. On a cumulative basis, industry production for 2018 now totals 90,612 homes,[1] still a 5.8% increase over the 85,657 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2017.

A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from the beginning of the industry production rebound in August 2011 through November 2018  — with cumulative, monthly, current year (2018) and prior year (2017) shipments per category as indicated — are:

MHARRLogoManufacturedHousingAssociationForRegulatoryReformLogoNov2018ProductionShipmentDataMHProNews

 

The latest information for November 2018, does not result in any changes to the cumulative top-ten list.

Although industry production as reported for November 2017 may have been skewed somewhat higher due to the production of disaster response homes for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (insofar as the HUD production reports do not differentiate between FEMA production and shipments and units produced for the general consumer market), the fact remains that production levels remain disappointingly low for a HUD Code industry that should be booming based on the strength of the broader economy, including both job and wage growth, versus the increasing cost of other types of housing. In part, as MHARR will soon address in greater detail, the industry’s difficulty in once again reaching – and substantially exceeding – the 100,000 home-per-year benchmark, is, to a substantial degree, a product of continuing problems affecting the industry’s post-production sector, including, principally, exclusionary zoning affecting communities, related placement issues, and most importantly, the continuing unequal secondary market treatment of the nearly 80 percent of manufactured homebuyers who rely on chattel loans to finance the purchase of their home. Significantly, though, it appears that the post-production sector could be on its way to more effectively addressing these and other issues through independent representation at the national level.  More on this development will be forthcoming soon.

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a
Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the
views and interests of independent producers of
federally-regulated manufactured housing. 

[1] Correcting and updated for a transposition error earlier in 2018.

— 30 —

 

The Daily Business News on MHProNews has been sounding the alarm for months that this was coming.  This pro-industry trade publication has also been cautioning for years that certain states and markets have been going backwards.  All of these are warning signs.  All of this directly refutes certain problematic claims by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).

MHProNews will do its own fuller analysis on this issue in the next 2 days.  Watch for it.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News , analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Shifting Momentum, Demographics, Women, the 2018 Midterms, and Manufactured Housing

May 23rd, 2018 Comments off

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If one takes candidates at their word – which is never a given once they are elected  – it must be noted that candidates Secretary Hillary Clinton, and businessman, builder and media maven Donald J Trump each made a range of stated policy positions.

 

Last night, the House passed S. 2155, see that report linked below. The bill gives manufactured housing professionals some benefits and relief from Dodd-Frank.  It fulfills part of the 45th presidents pledge to undo what he said was the economic damage wrought by the CFPB and the Dodd-Frank regulatory regime.

 

That bill which has now been passed by the House and Senate would not have been signed had Ms. Clinton been the president, per her own statements.

By contrast, there is every expectation that President Donald J. Trump will sign the measure that provides relief for the industry on the MLO rule and other fronts.

Also last night, President Trump, addressed the conservative, pro-life women’s group gala, the Susan B. Anthony List. He was welcomed like a rock star.

The video posted will reflect several things that industry leaders, investors, and strategists should consider. Note that the female population is slightly larger than that of men. Note to the charts that will follow.

First, the president is repeating a theme, that the group also spotlighted – “promises made, and promises kept.”

Next, the pro-life group is pledging a serious voter mobilization effort for the fall.

Note that the NRA – the National Rifle Association – has made a similar pledge to the president for supporting candidates that he and his party will back. The president and Vice President Mike Pence are signaling that they will be very active on the campaign trail in much of the rest of 2018.

Reuters’ latest generic ballot has now tipped the midterm race slightly ahead for GOP candidates over Democratic ones. It is a tidal shift from the end of last year.

According to Vote Run Lead, exit polls reported that 53 percent of voters in the 2012 election were women.

In every presidential election year from 1980 – 2008 women have outnumbered men in voting Democratic and the same is true for men outnumbering women voting Republican,” says Wikipedia.

The U.S. Census Bureau tells the Daily Business News that, “Voting rates have also historically varied according to age, with older Americans generally voting at higher rates than younger Americans (Figure 4). In 2016, this was once again the case, as citizens 65 years and older reported higher turnout (70.9 percent) than 45- to 64-year-olds (66.6 percent), 30- to 44-year-olds (58.7 percent) and 18- to 29-year-olds (46.1 percent). However, in 2016, young voters ages 18 to 29 were the only age group to report increased turnout compared to 2012, with a reported turnout increase of 1.1 percent. All older age groups either reported small yet statistically significant turnout decreases (45- to 64-year-olds and those age 65 and older) or turnout rates not statistically different from 2012 (30- to 44-year-olds).”

VotingByAgeCensusBureauDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

There is every indication that the president’s popularity is rising among blacks, Hispanics, and women. He already had a strong lock on Evangelicals, and white men.

MHProNews cited the New York Times polling, our own yard sign straw poll of a Florida manufactured home community, and a straw poll of industry professionals at an MHI event as part of our pre-election projections in 2016 that Mr. Trump would do well among manufactured housing residents and professionals.

ChangeInVotingPatternsAgeRaceCensusBureauDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

It was part of our MHProNews broader analysis. These were among the reasons for our projecting that he could pull off an upset on election night.

There is no other known group or media in manufactured housing that made similar projections. We editorially supported the Trump candidacy, as being better for business, workers, investors, and our industry.

12ReasonsEducatedIranianAmericanWomanSupportsDonaldTrumpPostedMastheadBlogMHProNews954x846

While the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) paid for two pro-Clinton speakers in the closing days before the 2016 election, the Kovach family and MHProNews supported Donald J. Trump’s candidacy as the best for the industry, small business, and hundreds of millions of Americans. One of those stories ended up on the president’s campaign website, and hundreds of conservative and pro-Trump websites.

 

Washington Insider Info

While MHProNews doesn’t claim much advantage over anyone else that is willing to dig for data and insights.  We have not yet personally met the president, but we do get several daily media and other briefs from the White House.

There are good reasons to believe that baring the unexpected, the GOP under President Trump’s leadership could pull off yet another surprise in the upcoming midterms.

The president himself is predicting it.

When you listen to the enthusiasm of this crowd from last night, does it remind you of the rallies from his campaign? No ‘entertainment’ was needed.

The theme is “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” It’s a powerful message for a campaign.

Step-by-step, President Donald J. Trump has undone in less than 18 months, much of the 8 year legacy of President Barack Hussein Obama. The Heritage Foundation claims over 60 percent of his agenda is already accomplished.  While that statistic might be debatable, what is certain is that his steady and relentless pace is getting voters to respond.  

Look for our Daily Business News latest U.S. economic report, and how that will play into the manufactured housing industry’s calculations. That surprising snapshot will be published later this morning.  We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.