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Near All-Time Record, Confidence Means MORE Sales and Business

October 2nd, 2018 Comments off

 

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When consumers are confident, they tend to buy more.

 

Who says? 

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is based on the concept that if consumers are optimistic, they tend to purchase more goods and services,” said Investopedia.

U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in April and new home sales increased more than expected in March, pointing to underlying strength,” said Reuter’s on April, 24, 2018, in a trend that has continued into the summer and fall.

Independent producers of manufactured homes have made similar statements, one that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) has often noted in their reports.

So it is no wonder that all housing sales are rising, including manufactured home sales.

 

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Double-Digit HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Growth In July 2018, MHARR

What the Consumer Conference Board reported for September, 2018 are near record highs.

 ConsumerConfidenceTheConfernceBoardChartGraphicDailyBusinessNEwsMHPronews

 

ExpectationsSurged

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, following a large improvement in August., said the Nielsen owned operation in a media release including the Daily Business News on MHProNews. “The Index now stands at 138.4 (1985=100), up from 134.7 in August. The Present Situation Index improved marginally from 172.8 to 173.1, while the Expectations Index surged from 109.3 last month to 115.3 this month.”

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch,” stated the Nielsen-affilated Conference Board. “The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 14.” 

After a considerable improvement in August, Consumer Confidence increased further in September and hovers at an 18-year high,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. She also serves on the board of the Demand Institute.

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The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remains extremely favorable, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth. The Expectations Index surged in September, suggesting solid economic growth exceeding 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year. These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season,” Franco said.

 

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Reading the Trend Lines

As you look at the Conference Board’s consumer confidence graphic’s latest trend lines, consumer confidence dropped to its low in late 2009. Consumer confidence rose in the years that followed, but began to decline again in 2015.   

Consumer confidence dipped to another low-point near mid-2016, but has risen steadily as the economy improved in 2017 and 2018. 

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady in September, said the Conference Board.

Those stating business conditions are “good” increased from 40.5 percent to 41.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” declined marginally from 9.3 percent to 9.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was somewhat more favorable. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased from 42.3 percent to 45.7 percent, but those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased from 12.1 percent to 13.2 percent.”

Perhaps more interesting for some is the outlook that consumers have.

The Conference Board said that “Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved considerably in September. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 24.4 percent to 27.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined, from 9.9 percent to 8.0 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 21.5 percent to 22.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 13.2 percent to 11.0 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 25.4 percent to 22.6 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease declined marginally, from 6.9 percent to 6.5 percent.”

The Conference Board is a nonprofit. From their website:

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. We connect senior executives across industries and geographies to share ideas, develop insights, and recommend policy to address key issues. Our mission is to help leaders anticipate what’s ahead, improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org.    

ABOUT NIELSEN

Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers watch and buy.”

 

What Could This Mean?

It is precisely because this reference is nonpartisan that makes it an interesting possible indicator for what lies ahead, one that differs from partisan political polling.

These are among the factors that could indicate that the so-called coming ‘blue wave’ reported by so much of the mainstream media could prove to be wrong on election night, November 6, 2018.

President Donald J. Trump has been touting his administration’s economic successes, which included the replacement for NAFTA, the USMCA, that was announced yesterday.  He drew a packed crowd last night in TN, where he campaigned for GOP candidates, including Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.  “A vote for Marsha is really a vote for me,” said President Trump to last night’s enthusiastic crowd, “and for everything that we stand for. It’s a vote for Make America Great Again, that what it is.”

The full length rally is found below, which opens with chants of “USA! USA! USA!” Clearly, pride in America – confidence – is coming back.

 

 

Small Business Optimism (SBO) is also at record highs.  See that further below, under the related reports, linked below. That’s this morning’s “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes, and Factory-Built Housing,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Consumer Confidence Index Report in for April

April 28th, 2017 Comments off
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The slog of “sausage making” in Congress was a contributing factor in the April Consumer Confidence Index, as it ticked down in April, but consumer outlook for the next six months remains positive.

According to CNBC, the Index dropped to 120.3 in April, while economists were expecting the index to only fall to 122.9 for the month.

 

As Daily Business News readers are already aware, the index hit a new record high last month and its highest level in 16 years, coming in at 125.6.

The index was at 116.1 in February.

Consumer confidence … still remains at strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

Consumers assessed current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, the labor market less favorably [in April] than in March. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and income prospects.”

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Credit: CNBC.

The survey showed that individuals indicating business conditions are “good” declined to 30.2 percent in April from 32.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” increased slightly, to 13.8 percent from 13.1 percent.

Outlook for the labor market was also down slightly, as the proportion of people expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 23.0 percent from 23.8 percent.

 

From Confidence to Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 97 for April, which was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 98 reading for the month.

Even with the dip, “there was widespread agreement among consumers on their very positive assessments of the current state of the economy as well as widespread disagreement on future economic prospects,” the university said in a statement.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that over the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, the unemployment rate for 16-24 rear olds has decreased from 10.1 percent to 9.1 percent; the rate for 20-24 year olds has decreased from 8.3 percent to 7.3 percent, and the rate for 25-34 year olds has decreased from 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent.

Over 317,000 non-farm jobs have been created, and there have been surges in both the construction and manufacturing sectors.

Confidence is playing a large role,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff – tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.”

For more on the impact, and progress, of the Trump Administration’s first 100 days, click here. ##

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Consumer Confidence on the Rise

December 30th, 2015 Comments off

photobucket_creditAccording to bloomberg, the Conference Board’s Dec. sentiment index advanced to 96.5 from a revised Nov. reading of 92.6. The median of a survey of economists was 93.5. MHProNews understands American optimism about the economy and job market has risen.

Cheaper fuel costs and an improving labor market have given people a little more room for gifts, travel and entertainment, as wages begin to slowly rise. In the next six months consumers see greater job availability and less anticipation of losing income.

The report from the Conference Board indicates the Millennials’ confidence attained the highest level since last Jan., while it was unchanged for those 35 to 54 years old, and declined for those over 55.

Americans who stated jobs were difficult to find dropped from 25.8 percent last month to 24.7 percent in Dec., while those who said jobs were plentiful hit 24.1 percent, the second highest rate in eight years.

As 2015 draws to a close, consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive, particularly their assessment of the job market,” Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

However, fewer said they would be buying a house or automobile, and more stated a major appliance or vacation is most likely. ##

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Consumer Confidence Receding

May 1st, 2015 Comments off

unhappy face  fotosearchThe private research group the Conference Board reports consumers are more worried about the economy as well as the outlook for the future. As the Wall Street Journal tells rvbusiness, its index of consumer confidence dropped to 95.2 in April, from 101.4 in March. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions dropped from 109.5 to 106.8. Consumer expectations for the next six months fell nearly nine percent, from 96.0 down to 87.5, MHProNews has learned.

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the board, said, “Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in March, gave back all of the gain and more in April. Coupled with waning expectations, there is little to suggest that economic momentum will pick up in the months ahead.” ##

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Consumer Confidence Rises to Best Reading since 2007

July 30th, 2014 Comments off

photobucket_creditThe Conference Board reports the Consumer Confidence Index reached 90.9 in July, its third consecutive monthly gain and the best reading since October, 2007, according to RVBusiness.com. Beating economists’ forecast of a mid-80s reading, MHProNews has learned the June reading was 86.4. Since February the economy has added over 1.2 million jobs and the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.7 percent to 6.1 percent. Lynn Franco, the board’s director of economic indicators, says the growth is likely to continue for the remainder of the year. ##

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Consumer Confidence Improves in January over December

January 29th, 2014 Comments off

Business research group the Conference Board reports a brighter view of the job market and business conditions has led consumer confidence to its highest point since August, 2013, reaching 80.7 in January, up from a 77.5 December reading of the index. “Confidence appears to be back on track and rising expectations suggest the economy may pick up some momentum in the months ahead,” said Conference Board economist Lynn Franco. According to what RVBusiness tells MHProNews, since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of U. S. economic activity, it is a closely watched monitor of the economy. Given the unseasonably cold weather in January, Amna Asaf, an economist at Capital Economics, said the January increase was encouraging.

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