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RE Focused Economist Says, ‘Millions of Housing Units’ Needed

June 14th, 2019 No comments

 

REFocusedEconomistsaysMillionsofHousingUnitsNeededManufacuredHousingIndustryMHProNews

Mark Fleming, Ph.D serves as the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation.  He’s been popping up more on various business news shows, so the Daily Business News on MHProNews decided to share the flavor of Fleming’s economic and housing insights.

 

It ought to be one of those rally points for manufactured housing professionals who are thirsting for growth.

About Fleming, “Before joining First American, he developed insights and analytical products for CoreLogic, and property valuation models at Fannie Mae. Fleming graduated from the University of Maryland with a Master of Science and a doctorate in agricultural and resource economics and holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from Swarthmore College. He lives and works in the Washington, D.C. area,” per his company’s website.

As the posted videos reflect, he’s telling business news sources on both sides of the left-right media divide that ‘millions of housing units’ are needed.

 

 

In that, he says some points that longer time-readers of MHProNews are familiar with.  The National Association of Realtor’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said similarly.

 

 

More recently, HUD Secretary Carson has pointed specifically to manufactured homes, along with other forms of prefab and innovative housing techniques.

 

 

So, while Fleming hasn’t been laser focused on manufactured housing, the industry’s professionals and investors must think of themselves as broader ‘housing’ members.  In that context, the needs are tremendous.

Only factory building can achieve that, is what tech gurus – who are increasingly entering the factory-built housing market – have decided.

Why does Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger love housing? Because they know which way the market is going.

In this context, one must ask. How is it possible, with the needs so great, that manufactured housing is still selling at a lower level than 15 years ago?

 

BloombergShipmentProductionDataManufacturedHousingMHProNews2019-05-16_1057

 

Logic says there are only a few possibilities.

·        The industry’s ‘big boy’ leaders don’t know what they are doing. While we disagree with them on many things, we don’t buy that option, but it is a logic possibility.

·        The industry’s ‘big boy’ leaders and their puppet association are lazy, and are not willing to do what it takes.  Again, it’s a possibility, but not one that we think fits the facts.

·        The industry’s leaders want the industry to perform at a low level, intentionally. If so, why? A common concern is that underperformance allows big companies to acquire smaller firms at a discounted price.

 

Is there evidence for this?

One might start with the words of Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) own statement on camera, arguing for slow growth. 

 

 

What? During an affordable housing crisis?

It was such an outrageous comment that our publisher brought it to the attention of then MHI Chairman, Tim Williams, who is also the President and CEO of 21st Mortgage Corp. Williams told MHProNews that he would ‘talk to Dick.’

The following Louisville Show, Jennison then said – also capture on video – that the industry could achieve 500,000 new homes. That’s arguably true. But what has MHI done to achieve that level of production?

 

MHI CEO Dick Jennison’s Pledge – 500,000 New Manufactured Home Shipments

 

NAMHCO, cited in a report earlier today, broke from MHI, precisely because of a lack of performance.

 

MHCommunitiesOfAZNealTHaneyPresidentWhyTheyQuitManufacturedHousingInstituteMHIDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews600

What Haney’s statement reflects is the lack of credibility and effectiveness of MHI in their claims.

 

Frank and Dave,” controversial in their own right, nevertheless told their readers 2 weeks ago not to look to MHI for support for community owners, using these words.

 

 

In peeling back the layers of the onion in manufactured housing, in hindsight, the insight of Marty Lavin makes sense when he said the following.

 

FollowThe MoneyPayMoreAttentionToWhatPeopleDothanwhatTheySaySpySea72MartyLavinYachtManufacturedHousingINdustryProMHProNews

Ask yourself objectively. Do these Marty Lavin dictums apply with respect to MHI?

 

More pointed was Lavin – who is an MHI award winner – when he made the following statement.

 

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make offer a cogent explanation?

 

MHI has purportedly engaged in what Mark Weiss, the President and CEO of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) who referred to the industry’s post-production sector – which is MHI’s turf – as the “illusion of motion.”

 

“THE ILLUSION OF MOTION VERSUS REAL-WORLD CHALLENGES” – Spotlighted by Manufactured Home Industry Leader

 

That comment sent our publisher laughing at the apt, penetrating insight.  Keep MHI members busy, keep them going to meetings that are profit centers for MHI, per their own IRS Form 990s.  Feed them ‘housing alerts’ that led them to believe that they are making progress…

…but the acid test is the sales, shipment and production of new manufactured homes.  Those numbers don’t lie.

 

ManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformMHARRApril2019ProductionShipmentReportDailyBUsinessNewsMHproNews

 

Inept? Lazy? Or head fake with the goal of consolidating the industry into ever fewer hands?

 

 

Let’s not forget the 21st letter, Kevin Clayton video, and Warren Buffett letter, linked below.

 

SmokingGunEvidenceOfAntiTrustMonopolisticCollusionMoatClaytonHomesKevinClayton21stMortgageTimWilliamsWarrenBuffettMHLivingNewsMHProNews

In a series of direct quotes in context, a document from 21st Mortgage signed by Tim Williams, and video recorded comments by Kevin Clayton, these all line up to demonstrate how independent retailers, communities, and producers – among others – where purportedly harmed by action that could be deemed an antitrust violation. Why hasn’t Allen told his readers how that cost them money? https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/bridging-gap-affordable-housing-solution-yields-higher-pay-more-wealth-but-corrupt-rigged-billionaires-moat-is-barrier/

 

It makes the most logical case. Clayton, 21st, MHI, and MHI’s outside attorney – asked to address these concerns and allegations – routinely makes no on the record comment. 

Instead, they’ve put George F. (F?) Allen up as their purportedly incentivized attack dog and distraction surrogate.

When asked about claims from his own followers that have said Allen’s being compensated and rewarded by the big boys, Allen has no comment.

Millions of housing units are needed. Publicly traded MHI member companies own IR packets state that the industry is underperforming by historic standards.

Voices in Congress, per our sources, are wising up to the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington ploy.

Voices in Congress, are already on the record going after high profile MHI members, including Clayton, 21st, and several large so-called ‘predatory’ community operators.

It’s not a pretty picture as to why the industry is underperforming. But the historical data – and the research by economists like Dr. Mark Fleming and others say that millions of homes are needed.

Tim Williams said it to MHProNews, and we’ve repeated it many times, because it was the truth – that they’ve arguably not followed. Every misleading report needs to be robustly responded to, as he said below.

 

TimWilliams21stMortgageCorpGoodArgumentsQuoteRespondEveryStoryDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

 

MHI needs to push for enhanced preemption, a full implementation of the Duty to Serve mandated by law, and put the black hat behavior actors on notice.

Sources say, MHI can’t do it.  They’d lose Clayton and several big boy members, per those sources if they ever did such a thing.

Thus the need to expose the problem and the realities. Then the need for multiple layers of independent investigations, as publicly as possible.

There’s more in the links below.

 

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That’s today’s third episode of News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes, and Factory-Built Housing,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

Dueling Statements, NAMHCO, MHI, MHARR, Weigh In On Controversial MH Bill, “George Allen Pawn Gambit”

Investigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Over Duty to Serve Manufactured Housing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Drop in Housing Sales, Splits Experts on Cause-Effect

January 22nd, 2019 Comments off

SignficantDropExistingHousingSalesSplitsExpertsonCauseEffectDailyBusinessNEwsMHProNews

CNBC and the National Association of Realtors are among the sources that report a drop in resale activity for December of 2018.

 

Here are some significant bullets and pull quotes for factory-built housing professionals to consider.

The latest decline is harder to explain. Perhaps it is the decline in consumer confidence that’s been occurring in the latter half of 2018,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. The latest numbers do not reflect the lower, current mortgage rates compared to the November figures, so it’s really harder to explain.”

 

December2018HOusingsnapshotDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

To put this in context, the rate for existing home sales is about 50 times that of HUD Code manufactured homes. So don’t let the MHI or related powers that be spin this fact.

 

This weakness is certainly due to the sharp home price gains along with the rise in mortgage rates,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, per CNBC.

 

ExistingHomeSalesDecember2018NationalAssociationRealtorsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

While positive demographics and a solid job market would normally offset this relatively modest rise in mortgage rates, it’s been about 10 years since mortgage rates have been as high as they were at the November peak – suggesting that there is a larger share of current homeowners who feel they are ‘locked in’ at a lower mortgage rate … reducing the number of them who would be looking for a home at a higher mortgage rate, said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote Diana Olick.

The partial federal shutdown doesn’t factor in here, looking backwards, but it may going forward. “Looking ahead to 2019, expect weaker existing-homes sales as the new year ushered in a government shutdown and worsening economic uncertainty,” said Cheryl Young, senior economist at Trulia.

 

ManufacturedHousingSHipmentsBloombergQuintFactoryBuiltRebuidRecoveryDailyBusinessNEwsMHproNEws

Learn more about the cause and effect of manufactured housing’s slide, at this link here.

 

Affordability, rates, and a shift in uncertainty are among the debated points.  But each of these items – headwinds in conventional housing – could be used by manufactured home professionals to attract more buyers.  At various times in manufactured housing’s history, a drop in conventional housing would lead to a rise in manufactured home sales.

So why did manufactured housing slip before conventional housing?

 

ManufacturedHmeIndustryAchieveGreatPotentialAddressingResolvingCauseCorePerceptionIssuesLATonyKovachQuotePresentationPhoto

 

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See the related reports, further below the byline and notices for insights on that question.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

Current & Forecast Investing Habits of Millennials, $30 Trillion Dollar Transfer of Wealth Looms

Federal Economic Measures, Data at Close of 2018, and Manufactured Housing

Sobering Federal Report on Manufactured Housing Lending – Retailers, Communities, Producers, and Finance Companies – Take Note

 

New NAMHCO Association Challenges Manufactured Housing Institute on DTS, Financing, and More

Why Is Manufactured Housing Struggling During an Affordable Housing Crisis? Former MHI President, VP, Other’s Quotable Insights

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rising Prices and Rates Cool Housing Sales, MH Industry Pro Sounds Off, New Data & Video

August 22nd, 2018 Comments off

 

RisingPricesRatesSalesCoolingMHSuccesssoundsOffNewDataVIdeoDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogoIn addition to the steady climb in [existing] home prices over the past year, it’s evident that the quick run-up in mortgage rates earlier this spring has had somewhat of a cooling effect on home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors® to the Daily Business News on MHProNews, via a release.

 

This weakening in affordability has put the most pressure on would-be first-time buyers in recent months, who continue to represent only around a third of sales despite a very healthy economy and labor market,” Yun said.

He added, “Is it reasonable to expect changes in the two bugaboos? Not when important elements of the industry appear uncooperative with potential new lending money and new lender money still feels very uneasy with the reality of MH lending.”

July2018ExistingHousingSalesSnahpshotNARDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogo

The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $269,600, up 4.5 percent from July 2017 ($258,100). July’s price increase marks the 77th straight month of year-over-year gains.

CNBCNARLogoExistingHomeSalesTrendLineJuly2018DailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogo

Lawrence_Yun,_NAR_Chief_Economist,_Realtor

Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist.

In addition to the steady climb in home prices over the past year, it’s evident that the quick run-up in mortgage rates earlier this spring has had somewhat of a cooling effect on home sales,” said Yun. “This weakening in affordability has put the most pressure on would-be first-time buyers in recent months, who continue to represent only around a third of sales despite a very healthy economy and labor market.”

What Yun said is akin to what Redfin’s CEO Glenn Kelman said recently, see that book-end report, linked below.

“Buyers Have Had Enough,” says Redfin’s Glenn Kelman

Listings continue to go under contract in under month, which highlights the feedback from Realtors® that buyers are swiftly snatching up moderately-priced properties,” Yun said. “Existing supply is still not at a healthy level, and new home construction is not keeping up to meet demand.”

It’s the last point that manufactured housing professionals should be laser focused on.  While Bloomberg and NAR have recently, among others, provided positive news about the industry and its homes, that message has yet to break through in a robust way to the market.

 

 

Marty Lavin Sounds Off on Latest…

Regarding the Bloomberg article, that is the 312th article since 1970 which has appeared, gotten the industry all puffed up, then little changed,” said Marty Lavin, JD, with a tongue in cheek hyperbole.  For those who missed it, a look at the Bloomberg piece is found in the item below.

Bloomberg “New Home for $90,000? Manufactured Housing Is Making a Comeback” Reveals MH Media Challenge

marty-lavin-jd-manufacturedhomefinanceexpert-DailyBusinessNews-mhpronews

Industry success story, and MHI award winner, Marty Lavin, JD.

At no point do they [Bloomberg] explain how the industry will overcome the twin bugaboos of the last 70 years:

1) Who and how will the homes be financed? and

2) Where will they be sited as most older home-sites are unattractive and declining in numbers and NIMBY reigns supreme in new locations, seemingly everywhere?

Is it reasonable to expect changes in the two bugaboos? Not when important elements of the industry appear uncooperative with potential new lending money and new lender money still feels very uneasy with the reality of MH lending.”

Lavin well knows the “GreenSeco” history from the late mid-to-late 1990s, and into the early 2000s, that were the excuse the GSEs held to regarding lending on manufactured home for years.

The fact that the industry’s two largest lenders failed to provided data to the GSEs they requested – and that other industry lenders provided – gave the GSEs an excuse to begin a toe in the water lending program.  That could be part of what Lavin has in mind, who said also told MHProNews,So the association [MHI] is not there for the “industry,” unless the interests of the Big Boys join the industry’s.”

 

Lavin Unload Continues…

Still needed are substantial industry model changes to reach anywhere near the promise all see in the industry, but which the industry seems bent on avoiding. Note that the present MH model doesn’t mean some are not doing well. They are.”

Questions remain, however, whether the obstructionist, being in prominent positions industry-wide, are prepared to bare their kimonos in an effort to boost the entire industry. Such has not been the case in the last 40 years.”

That’s about as scathing a rebuke that Lavin has given to date for those who are “obstructionist” in their moat-building behaviors. The MHI award winner, and long-time success story in retail and communities, has pointed a finger at MHI and their “big boy” brands that have pled and postured growth, but have failed to do what’s necessary to actually achieve growth.

For a prior Daily Business News item with additional quotes from Lavin on a related topic, see the related reports, linked below. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

Trendlines Don’t Lie, Real Challenges, Hidden Manufactured Housing Opportunities Revealed

Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison, Manufactured Housing Institute CEO, Doubles Down, Industry Reactions, Fact Check to Growth Strategy

Warren Buffett Would be Okay With Clayton Homes Losing Money, Says Kevin Clayton – But Why?

“Thou Shall Not Steal,” $2 Trillion Annually Lost to Lack of Affordable Homes, Making the Manufactured Home Case

August 4th, 2018 Comments off


ThouShallNotsteal$2TrillionAnnuallyLostLackofAffordableHomesMakingManufacturedHomeCase

After years of arguably failed polite talk, perhaps more direct and blunt words are needed.

 

The logic of research economists Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti is that improper land use policies are costing the nation some $2 trillion dollars a year.

Past25YearsHousingConstraintsChangTaiHsiehUChicagoEnricoMorettiUCBerkely

See the Daily Business News report on that topic, at this link here. It includes a download of their research.

The reasoning of National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is that only more and faster new construction will fix the housing affordability issue.

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

Collage by MHProNews.

It is this Daily Business News on MHProNews writer’s understanding, Dr. Yun prompted Scholastica ‘Gay’ Cororaton, Certified Business Economist (CBE) to research manufactured homes. Among her 30 pages of reports, charts, and data include the following.

 

CompareMobileHomeTrailersPastManufacturedHomesSaferMoreDurableQuoteScholasticiaGayCororationPhotoSmallPercentageDamagedDuringHUrricanesMHProNews

See more of her research, at this link here.

 

The logic of Trulia’s research, summarized by the data in the graphic below, supports that of the research economists above. Affordable housing has negligible impact on all other housing nearby. Both forms of housing are growing in value, side by side.

TruliaImpactofAffordableHomesHousingValueDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

The Trulia research reinforces what HUD’s PD&R on manufactured homes (MH) found, that MH appreciated side by side with conventional housing.

But what if that affordable housing are manufactured homes? Do manufactured homes harm property values for neighboring conventional housing?

The university level research that HUD commissioned in their PD&R report preceded the Trulia study. It looked at manufactured homes as infill in cities, right next door to conventional site built, single family homes.

The results?

Housing values of both conventional homes and the manufactured homes appreciated side-by-side.

RegulatoryBarrierstoManufacturedHousingPlacementinUrbanCommunitiesHUDPDR-postedManufacturedHomeLivingNews595x357

The research from multiple cities documented that manufactured homes appreciated side-by-side with conventional housing. The findings are similar to what Trulia’s study learned. https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2011HUDPDRRegulatoryBarriersManufacturedHousingPlacementUrbanCommunitiesMHLivingNewsPDF.pdf

The summary of the logic of the third-party researched facts are overwhelming when laid out side-by-side like this.

But the irony is that Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies researcher Eric Belsky came to the conclusion over 16 years ago that manufactured homes where likely to surpass conventional housing in production. No doubt for the kind of reasons Cororaton more recently cited.

MultipleReasonsExpectManufacturedHousingDoBetterThanSiteBuiltHousingEricBelskyEecDirJointCenterHousingStudiesHarvardUnivDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

At the time Belsky made this prediction, manufactured homes were selling over 250,000 new units per year. This year, MH won’t reach 40 percent of that total. What happened?

 

Richard Genz did research prior to the statement by Harvard’s Belsky, making the case for manufactured home quality and durability in a study for the Fannie Mae Foundation.

 

“Why Advocates Need to Rethink Manufactured Home Quality,” Harvard, GSE, Genz, “High Satisfaction”

So what happened?  Why were Genz and Belsky – the obvious logic of their clear view that manufactured homes deserved support and were bound to grow – why were their visions not realized?

How is it possible than when manufactured homes (MH) – by law – must perform dynamically the same as conventional housing in safety, durability and energy savings – and when MH costs less, why aren’t more HUD Code homes being sold?

 

 

Fresh Facts, Figures, Future of Affordable Housing -Comparisons- Conventional Site-Built v Mobile/Manufactured Home Industry Data

 

The simple answer is that a variety of seemingly unrelated forces have been at play.

Those forces included, but where not necessarily limited to:

–   ignorance,

–   prejudice,

–   greed,

–   political and regulatory pressures, fostered by the above,

–   and perhaps a failure to put all these facts back-to-back, to see reality vs. outdated perceptions. Fear and falsehoods were allowed to drive too many people’s thinking.

President Gerald Ford said prior to the HUD Code that the “mobile home” industry would always be necessary. It was market-based affordable homes, that routinely required no taxpayer subsidizes.

U.S. President Praised “The Mobile Home Industry,” Manufactured Homes are “Here to Stay”

Failure to heed that observation caused city after city on “both coasts” and the interior of the U.S. to lose decades of opportunities for more housing affordability.

The upshot?

Growing homelessness, including vehicular homelessness.

“Vehicular Homelessness” Rising, Land Use, and Manufactured Housing Policies

 

The answer being sought by many among the politically connected is to build more subsidized housing. In fact, for over 50 years, those housing programs have proven to be unable to keep up with the ever rising demand. The Heritage Foundation estimated that those social programs – which included subsidized housing – cost the nation some $22 trillion dollars in 5 decades.

That’s virtually the same amount as the national debt.

Isn’t it lunacy to continue doing more of the same self-evident failures? Why not turn to the proven solution?  Why not use free market driven investments by entrepreneurs vs. tax dollars?

MobileManufacturedHomeManufacturedHousingIndustryFactsDataResearch

 

What’s Missing in the Data? Real Harm to Real People

We as a society can’t change what’s happened. But we can learn from it. Perhaps the data needs to be humanized?  Do we need poster children to show what’s happened, and how that’s harmed Americans?

Almost every retailer who has sold a manufactured home direct to the public for at least a year has encountered the following scenario. Often numerous times.

A single, couple or family/household owns or wants to buy a manufactured home for a piece of property. But a local official stops that placement. Isn’t that using the force of law to rob people of the opportunity to own an affordable home?

The non-profit Equal Justice thinks so, and successfully sued a town on that issue. They are now suing another city.

Lawsuit Filed Against City to Defend Manufactured Home Owners Rights, led by Equal Justice Non-Profit

What does that process of denying Americans affordable housing actually cost such persons or families?

More personal wealth.  Keep in mind that HUD Secretary Carson spent some time in 2017 telling people that home owners had an average net worth of some $200,000, while the average renting household only has $5000 net worth.

The logic of Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Professor Kenneth Johnson’s research indicates that manufactured home ownership may yield the most wealth for a household. The lower the cost of the housing, for a disciplined saver/investor, the greater the potential for other investments, thus increasing personal wealth.

KenHJohnsonPhDFloridaAtlanticUnivRealEstateEconomics-ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBuisnessNewsMHProNews

FAU’s Ken Johnson made an eye opening point that applies to manufactured homes in terms of the ability for manufactured homes to help build more personal wealth https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/researchers-shake-up-american-dream-rent-vs-buy-ken-johnson-florida-atlantic-university-exclusive-to-manufacturedhomelivingnews/

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) and Cororaton’s research both demonstrated that manufactured homes are the lowest cost form of permanent housing. Less than rent, and even when higher rates and shorter loan terms, manufactured homes dramatically lower price yields the lowest monthly payments.

 

But we can put a face, a family, to this snapshot.

The Rev. Donald Tye, Jr. said that their affordable pre-HUD Code factory-built home made it possible for he and his wife to do things for their family they could not have done any other way.  Tye told MHProNews that planners are missing out on the many social and economic benefits that affordable home ownership provides.

RevDonaldTyeJrManufacturedHousingAdvocateQuickestWayWealthIndustryVoicesMHProNews500

He also addressed the lost tax benefits, as well as the prejudice against manufactured homes, and the misuse of terminology like this.

RevDonaldTyeJrBusinessmanManufacturedHousingAdvocateDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Tye explained that public housing – an entitlement – often yields addiction. Ownership vs. renting or living in “projects” leads to integrity, a view he likens to those of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

ItsAsWrongtoUseNWordToDescribeBlackAsUseTWordTodescribeManufacturedHomeRevDonaldTyeJr.ManufacturedHousingNotT-railerNotNword

Mark Weiss, JD, weighed in on that same point, saying the the use of the t-word is offensive to millions.

TheDeliberateMisueofTerminologyCanBeOffensivetoMillionsWhoProudlyOwnAManufacturedhomeOrThousandsinourIndustryMarkWeissMHARRMHproNews575

A poet who sold her conventional housing to buy a manufactured home was shocked at the prejudice generated by others.

Taking on the Trash Talk! Are People Defined by their Housing Choice? Video, Photos

There are letters-after-letters, stories-after-stories that have a similar refrain.  Here’s a pair of others.

“Home Sweet Home” – Assistant Mayor Wants to End Housing Choice Stigma

Trade Publisher, Experts call for Respect, Understanding for Manufactured Housing, Manufactured Home Owners

Part of what should have been learned in recent decades is that there is a huge cost to taking opportunities from others. That arguably becomes a form of theft.  Thus the commandment that most faiths believe to be true – “thou shall not steal” – reasonably applies.

It includes mobile and manufactured home community owners who in various jurisdictions are increasingly being told that they can’t replace an older home with a new one. What?

“Unconstitutional Taking,” “Gentrification on Trial” in Recent Oak Hill Manufactured Home Community Ruling

A state supreme court ruling in one case was described by an attorney as an “unconstitutional taking.” That community owner won. But how much time and effort did it cost that community owner to be allowed to use their own land as a place where affordable home ownership can occur for families?  Those legal costs have to be passed onto others, those who live in those affordable manufactured homes.

Time and again – however well intended the local policies may be – the net result is that it is costing millions opportunities for more affordable home ownership.

 

The High Cost of Ignorance and Prejudice

This writer told a group of business professionals last year in Deadwood that manufactured homes were the civil rights issue of our times. That message was applauded by those who know first-hand how difficult it can be to sell a manufactured home, and get it safely installed on an appropriate permanent site and foundation.

CivilRightsIssueAbolitionCivilRightsAffordableQualityHomesManufacturedHousingDrMartinLutherKingDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

LATonyKovachPresenting%StateConvDeadwoodSDKenCorbinCommentManufacturedHousingIndustryEventDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Tony Kovach doing a presentation in a packed room of industry professionals.  The essence of the talk was the importance of educating people locally about the truths regarding modern manufactured homes.

The logic of these facts is this.

$2 trillion dollars a year is lost in GDP – that’s the cost of ignorance and prejudice against manufactured homes in America.  Take 326 million Americans, divide it into $2 trillion dollars lost annually, and that’s like $6,134.97 per man, woman and child.

For a family of four, that’s $24,539.88 in lost U.S. GDP.

It’s an avoidable loss, and can be fixed by a proper understanding coupled with the application of existing laws, as you will see below.

 

Terminology Matters

People wrongly believe the terminology for factory built homes is optional. It’s not. The correct terminology is a matter of law – the code which a home was built to meet.

TerminologyMattersBecausetheTerminologyDescribestheConstructionStandardsHomeBuiltToSteveDukeLMHAaMHLivingNewsMHProNewsBiggerPocketsSunshineHomesRedBayAL

After more than fifty years of short-sighted and prejudiced thinking, it’s decades past the time that modern manufactured homes be seen for what they are.  It’s time to stop cherry-picking exceptional tales, and to look at the broad facts.

PublishingHandPickedInformationCanBeWorsefortheImpressionItMakesOnManufacturedHomesandOurIndustryThanStatingEntirelyFalseInfo-BradLovinNCMHA

To see the report on tornadoes and manufactured homes, click here.

 

Manufactured homes are the solution for the affordable housing crisis that’s hiding in plain sight. It must be noted that modular and other forms of factory home building can all perform a vital part of the solution to America’s costly affordable housing crisis.

But because of the genius of the HUD Code, setting national standards with regional requirements, much of the harm caused by local regulators is avoided with manufactured homes.

MostMenAppearnNeverConsideredWhatHouseIsNeedlesslyPoorAllTheirLivesHenryDavidThoreauManufacturedHomeLivingNews

Every photo above is a manufactured home.  For newcomers to the website not familiar with modern manufactured homes, learn more by clicking the image above or the link here..

 

Solutions? Parallel Path One

The former chairman of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), Tim Williams, President and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway owned 21st Mortgage, said the following.

People cited in this column today might later say something different, perhaps because they may (errantly) believe that money tempts them to do so.  Some back off due to other pressures.

But they can’t unring the bell on what they’ve already said.

A consistent theme of MHProNews and MHLivingNews for years has been the need to honestly and sustainably grow the industry. We have never advocated, for example, for the kind of poor lending practices that led to the post-1998 nosedive of manufactured home sales.

Education – sound information are a key step.  21st’s Williams was right, and so was Frank Rolfe, who said that the media must be engaged with the truth when errant information crops up.

 

 

Solution – Parallel Path 2 – The Logic of Sound, Sustainable Lending

Lenders are protected when home values are protected.

Home values are protected and enhanced by demand and sound lending.

Sound and profitable lending is good for business, good for people, and good for the economy.

Good information – vs. prejudice or short-sighted thinking for whatever motivations – is how bigoted influences are pushed out.  This is how information and sound lending, parallel paths, can support each other, as a train running on a track is supported by parallel rails.

 

Manufactured Housing Appreciation?

The Urban Institute, and the National Association of Realtors ® have both reported what MHProNews and MHLivingNews has said for years. Manufactured homes can and do appreciate. But why are there times that they don’t rise in value?

First, all housing rises and falls in value for much the same reasons.

I’m not speaking for ‘Gay’ Cororaton when I share my take on a conversation this writer and she had a few weeks ago. I asked her about the economic logic of the following

Home appreciation is fueled by the following factors.

  • Location,
  • Condition of the home (maintenance, appearance),
  • Demand for housing,
  • Local economic factors (wages, employment opportunities, etc.), and
  • the availability of reasonable lending. Other points could be mentioned too, but those are key ones.

So, if any of those factors are reduced or eliminated, then the value would be lessened. Think about conventional housing post 2008, lending dried up, housing dropped in value.

My understanding was that she agreed with those principles.  My hunch is most objective thinkers and economists would too.

That being so, consider this.

Because manufactured homes have had lending options artificially reduced due to the absence of robust support from the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, then to some degree, that will influence resale values. Again, my understanding was that she agreed with that premise.

Two Great Laws Already on the Books NOW,  Can Unlock Billion$ Annually for Manufactured Housing Industry Businesse$, Investor$

In our comments letter to HUD, we stressed that since the GSEs were arguably not doing their job, that FHA could step up to the plate, as should VA and USDA (Rural Housing) loans.

Now, let’s rephrase that to make the following point.

For decades, the GSEs have resisted lending on manufactured homes. Fannie Mae’s highly touted MH Advantage is arguably another artful dodge, as it forces manufactured home builders to meet additional criteria beyond what the HUD Code mandates.

 

“Take the MH Advantage Challenge – Can You Tell the Difference?” Fisk of Sarah Edelman, Director of Duty to Serve, Single-Family Mortgage Business for Fannie Mae

Who worked with Fannie Mae on that MH Advantage program? Our sources say, past and current members of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).

Why would MHI argue for a so-called “new class” of manufactured homes – where there is no data or track record – when there is decades of data and track record that proves the value of millions of units of HUD Code manufactured homes?

ManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformMHARRMarkWeissDTSFHFA-GSEsGoingtoLargestBusinessesCorpAffiliatesDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Collage by MHProNews.

That was the logic of Mark Weiss, JD, President and CEO of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform.

Rephrased, who benefits, and who is harmed by this questionable ploy between MHI and the GSEs?

Hold that thought for latter.

Because the bottom line is this. Manufactured homes have proven their value. Their value would logically be enhanced, given a proper understanding of their safety, quality and durability.

 

Two Types of HUD Code Manufactured Homes?

This writer has told people for years that there are broadly speaking, entry level manufactured homes, and residential style manufactured homes.  Both styles must meet the safety, energy and construction standards set forth by federal law under HUD and the DOE.

When you go shopping for a vehicle, there’s a wide array of sizes and styles to select from.  There are entry level cars, mid-range, and luxury ones too. That can be said about cell phones vs. smart phones, RVs, laptops, or most any product one cares to consider.

So, with manufactured homes, it is similar. If all you’ve seen are entry level manufactured homes, then you need to see a residential style one.

 

One must stress that any and all manufactured homes must all meet HUD’s safety, energy, and durability standards. From the least costly, all manufactured homes (MH) get consumer protection not found in conventional housing that costs many times the price. It was the MH industry that fought for that legislation – MHARR MHI, and states like Texas too – as part of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act (MHIA) of 2000.

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Credits are as shown, collage by MHProNews.com.

But another key part of the MHIA of 2000 was enhanced preemption. That enhanced preemption is the key to unlocking $2 Trillion dollars a year in increased GDP for the U.S. This needs 5 stars next to this point.

Put differently, there is no need to wait for local jurisdictions across the land to get a backbone, or learn the truth the obliterates their ignorance, prejudices, sweetheart deals to favored developers, etc.

All that’s needed is for HUD to enforce existing law.  Enhanced preemption for manufactured homes is already the law of the land.

Let’s say that again for emphasis. All that’s needed is for HUD to enforce existing law.  Because the MHIA of 2000 preemption protects the rights of everyday Americans to buy and safely install a manufactured home on any buildable property.

We don’t need decades of battles, or more studies. The logic and the realities have been hiding in plain sight for years.

 

The Urban Institute’s Vital 2018 Question

Urban Institute researchers in a January 2018 report came to some similar points about manufactured homes, appreciation, and related. They asked a key question. Why aren’t more manufactured homes being sold, when they are a proven part of the solution to the affordable housing crisis?  Here’s how they phrased it, in the caption above “We Follow the Money.”

UrbanInstituteWeFollowTheMoneyClaytonHomesDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews560x352

What they didn’t say was as important as what they did say.

One researcher was Edward Golding, who used to work for HUD. That wasn’t disclosed in their report. Golding had Pam Danner, JD, periodically report to him. Danner was the Administrator for what the Washington Post called the “once obscure” Office of Manufactured Housing Programs (OMHP).

Greener, Stylish Manufactured Homes – Hidden Facts in the Washington Post Manufactured Housing Narrative

Which begs this question. Why didn’t Golding and others at the Urban Institute mention enhanced preemption in their reporting on manufactured homes?

After all, zoning, economic prejudice, and enhanced preemption all intersect.

When manufactured home businesses and state association executives from coast to coast say that zoning/land use/placement are key issues, how could Golding or the Urban Institute fail to mention enhanced preemption?

Hold that thought. Because another undisclosed fact was the connection of Warren Buffett as a lifetime trustee for the Urban Institute. It’s mentioned on the big Urban Institute site, if you got hunting for it. But there was no disclosure on the article that Golding and his fellow researchers published on the topic.

 

Urban Institute Ask for Correction in Analysis of their Manufactured Housing Research, “Follow the Facts,” “Follow the Money”

Nor did the Urban Institute mention that the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) helped forge their paper. A source at the Urban Institute told us that “anonymity” was promised to MHI and Clayton, for their role in crafting their report.

What?

Since when do non-profits and university level style researchers not state their sources? Since when are possible conflicts-of-interests not disclosed by nonprofits or researchers in publishing their findings?

 

Smoking Guns…?

Eric Belsky made another statement about housing that very much applies to the question the Urban Institute asked.

CreditIsTheLifeBloodOfHousingEricBelskyHarvardDailyBusinessNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryMHProNews

It’s a statement that most every manufactured home retail or community professional who experienced the slide from 1998 to 2008 know all too well. For more on Belksy, and MH, click here.

 

Let’s go back to what Belsky and Genz said over 15 years ago. Belsky expected manufactured homes to advance, so did Genz.

Why didn’t they?

Short answer, lending was choked off. Absent enough lending to supports home sales, there will be fewer manufactured homes sold. Duh, right?

KennyLipschutzQuotePoorJobOfLobbyinginMHIndustry-postedMHProNews-com

Kenny Lipschutz, Home First Certified Communities.

Absent a level playing field on lending or resales, manufactured homes are placed at a disadvantage in resale values.

Another issue is appraisals. Thousands of appraisers misunderstand manufactured homes. But that too is and educational issue, noted here as a placeholder.

So, we see the need for factual, evidenced and reason-based thinking about manufactured homes. Among the best-informed investors is arguably Warren Buffett. He reads and reads, per his own statements, and that of others who know him.

So why did Belsky miss his projection about manufactured housing achieving dominance in production over conventional builders by 2010? Arguably, the short answer is that Belsky did not count on Warren Buffett entering the industry in 2003. Belsky didn’t count on what Berkshire Hathaway did, as they began to deploy the Buffett strategic “Moat.”

WarrenBuffettTheMoatQuoteMemeManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNEwsMHProNEws

Who speaks of “the moat?” Warren Buffett explains his principles of “the Moat” in a video on the page linked below. So does Kevin Clayton, in a separate video also found below.  Clayton says in his own words in that video that “Warren” stresses widening “the Moat” against competitors on a routine basis.

 

Best Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, Clayton Homes, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, Competition, and “the Moat” Video Collection

 

The Truth is Not Political

We believe that truth is apolitical, but political officials may use – misuse, ignore, or abuse – the truth.

A closer look at the problem of why there is not more manufactured housing being sold can be summed up by the notion of the impact of failure to educate, and monopolistic practices. Who says?

GuruFocus and the Seattle Times.

MoatCastleBuffettBerkshireClaytonHomes21stMortgageVanderbiltMortgageManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews550x305

Seattle Times -Federal Investigations-Berkshire Hathaway’s Clayton Homes, GuruFocus Spotlights Buffett’s Clayton’s “Unethical,” Monopolistic Moat. http://www.mhpronews.com/daily-business-news/seattle-times-federal-investigations-berkshire-hathaways-clayton-homes-gurufocus-spotlights-buffetts-claytons-unethical-monopolistic-moat/

 

Progressive “Nation” Reports on Monopolies Cites Buffett, Clayton, Others – MH Industry Impact?

And the evidence that manufactured housing’s ascendancy was derailed by forces within the industry is found in part with documents and quotes from Berkshire owned 21st Mortgage, Warren Buffett’s own words, and Berkshire dominated MHI’s own chart.

Smoking Gun 3 – Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage Corp Tim Williams – Manufactured Home Lending, Sales Grab?

Thousands lost their businesses, and millions arguably lost the opportunities to benefit from manufactured home ownership. It’s cost taxpayers a fortune, that can be measured in the trillions of dollars in losses to the GDP, and avoidable costs to federal taxpayers.

How Many MH Independents, Retailers Have Been Lost Recently? “They Think They Own Us”

 

The Problem of the One Percent

We won’t hype the issue of the 1 percent, nor understate it.

What this will propose that may be unique is a free enterprise solution to the problem of the one percent. It’s this. De facto monopolistic forces are at work in manufactured housing, and in other parts of the economy, such as the tech giants.  Apply the logic of the NY Stern professor to manufactured housing, and it is just as apt as it is when applied to the world of the tech giants.

We’ll let Professor Scott Galloway make his case in tech.

 

“Winners and Losers,” L2 Founder, Prof Scott Galloway on Monopolies

But for those who believe that monopolistic forces harm Americans, we can point to voices as politically separated as Senator Ted Cruz and Congresswoman Maxine Waters.

If we start listening to the factual points – vs. the opinions or spin – of what others are saying, those facts can lead someone to the root issues.  Facts are what is.  Opinions and interpretations are a dime a dozen.

The opportunity to use evidence, facts, and objective reasoning to discover the underlying causes – and thus the cures – of the affordable housing crisis is possible.  Keep in mind, that sooner or later, monopolies arguably harm workers and consumers.

 

Does Monopoly Power Impact Workers’ Stagnant Wages? MH Industry Impact$

 

The irony may be this. Aren’t even monopolists harmed by what they create?  Think about that $2 trillion a year in lost GDP.

Regardless, society as a whole is harmed, and that is why anti-trust laws exist.

Lawsuits for Triple Damages – Anti-Trust, Anti-Monopoly Law, Manufactured Housing, and You

 

The Fix is Applying Existing Laws

There is no need for years of delays in hearings or more studies.

Antitrust laws debatably need to be applied to Berkshire Hathaway, and to all others in business who’ve become invasive, as Galloway said.

The Smoking Gun 3 documents, facts and related quotes from officials who are part of Berkshire speak for themselves.  It would be difficult for them to unsay, what they’ve already said that arguably proves they are monopolistic.

MHI and Berkshire Hathaway has been given repeated opportunities to respond to any of these concerns.  Rather than respond, instead of debating the merits or misses in this reading of the facts, they’ve tried a variety of other tactics.  But if they could easily disprove this, why haven’t they?  Those from Berkshire brands who once praised us, now sit in silence as we publish reports like this one. Why?

TimWilliamsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsGoodCommunicationsResourcesILogonLatestNewsBigAssetExplainWhyIndustryVoices-768x339

Part of several messages for publication by Tim Williams to MHProNews. MHI’s president praised us for some years to, as this mirthful short demonstrates. 

MHI should be scrutinized for fostering the conditions that allowed manufactured housing to be derailed from what Belsky thought was a bright future. Some who see the problems outlined herein hold out hope that MHI can be redeemed. This writer – based upon sources, evidence and past history – believes that people can change, but that said, the evidence is that MHI’s leadership isn’t changing.  Thus, they need to be exposed, and supplanted with something entirely new.

MHARR does its job, but an MHI award winner says that MHI works only for the “the big boys.”

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make offer a cogent explanation?

 

I’ve said for years that pretty pictures alone are not enough to convince people of the truth about manufactured homes, and what it can do to transform for the better millions of lives.

RememberThisQuoteIrPrettyPicturesMHIndustryWillOnlyAchieveItsGoalsByResovingItsCoreIssuesLATonyKovachMHProNews

Education is the answer. Refuting false claims must be part of that educational process.  People aer entitled to their opinions, but not to their own facts.

Understanding the issues are can help avoidable for others the tragedies caused by ignorance, greed and the evidenced based factors alleged herein. Millions of Americans have been robbed of what they could have had, instead of subsidized housing, or a life of rental, give people the information and opportunity to increase their personal wealth through affordable home ownership.

There are numerous voices that have blasted MHI’s hypocrisy. The one above is just one of many.

It’s time for the disinfectant of sunlight to cure what decades of ignorance, private agendas, monopolistic forces, and prejudice has caused.

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

It’s time for the truth that’s been hiding in plain sight.

The reward is $2 trillion dollars in enhanced GDP annually, just by applying existing law.

The reward is that affordable home ownership could would do for millions of all colors and creeds.

Let’s stop robbing people of the possibility of a brighter future.  That theft has debatably occurred by misusing government and economic power.

Rather, lets allow existing laws to go to work, so that Americans select the home of their dreams, wherever they have a buildable home-site. More can be learned from the links from this article, but that’s enough said for today. “We Provide, You Decide.” ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

FactoryBuiltCarsClothingAppliancesElectronicsCellsSmartPhonesHomesItJustFollowsLATonyKovachC2017MHproNewsBy L.A. “Tony” Kovach – Masthead commentary, for MHProNews.com.

Tony is the multiple award-winning managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

Office 863-213-4090 |Connect on LinkedIn:
http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach

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Click here to sign up in 5 seconds for the manufactured home industry’s leading – and still growing – emailed headline news updates.

 

Related References:

Movie Mogul Rupert Wyatt and Screenwriter Erica Beeney’s Magnificent Manufactured Home

Affordable Housing Focus Group – Comparing Housing Options – Conventional Houses, Condo, Rentals, and Manufactured Homes – Up for Growth, National Association of Realtor, Studies

“Market for Manufactured Homes,” Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton, for Realtor University, Analysis and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI)

July 18th, 2018 Comments off
MarketforManufacturedHomesScolasticaGayCoronatonManufacturedHousingInstituteMHILogoAnalysisDailyBuisnessNewMHProNewsLogo

Collage above is from Realtor University ®, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) logo, and designed by MHProNews, with images shown under fair use guidelines.

Compared with the unregulated mobile/trailer homes of the past, the manufactured homes built after 1976 have a higher level of safety, durability, and quality, and the small fraction of homes damaged during hurricanes attests to their safety and durability. New design features and multi-section homes are increasingly giving them the look of traditional site-built homes. These safety standards and improved features should lead to the increasing acceptance of manufactured homes as a safe, durable, and affordable type of housing.”

–   Scholastica D. Cororaton, Certified Business Economist (CBE), National Association of Realtors ® (NAR).

 

Scholastica “Gay” D. Cororaton, CBE, took a statistical dive into the manufactured housing industry in a report published in the National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) related Realtor University ® Journal of the Center for Real Estate Studies publication for May 2018.

ScholasticaGayDCororatonDBEResearchEconomistNationalAssociationRealtorsWashDCManufacturedHousingIndsutryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews507

Composite information from LinkedIn.

Manufactured housing is an affordable housing option, especially among lower income groups. Households who obtain chattel financing for mobile/manufactured homes and who rent the land will tend to spend less on housing expenses (mortgage, interest, mortgage insurance, taxes, land rent) compared to households who obtain mortgage financing for the mobile/manufactured home and the land, even if chattel financing (interest) costs are higher (because the loan value is higher in the latter). However, if the house-hold already owns the land, then mortgage financing for the manufactured home only is less costly than obtaining chattel financing. However, taking account of both the appreciation in the value of the land and the cost savings, households who lease the land will likely accumulate less wealth compared with households who own the land.”

As the above pull-quotes reflect, The Market for Manufactured Homes,” is a arguably a good reflection on Cororaton, the NAR and in many respects for manufactured housing too.

She told the Daily Business News on MHProNews yesterday that this was her first serious foray into the world of manufactured housing.

Most of her nomenclature was well done, which sadly can’t be routinely said about much of the mainstream media, or other researchers.  Overall, she produced a largely positive, useful document.

That said, there are some errors, which we will explore.

 

The Review Plan

First in reviewing NAR’s “The Market for Manufactured Homes,“ this analysis notes the largely-solid information from Cororaton’s research.  There are potentially some areas that one might discuss the why, behind the what, which will be addressed briefly further below.  But in fairness to Cororaton, that could be viewed by NAR as going beyond a strictly data-driven report.

That said, this review will spend significant digital ink looking at a few data and graphical points that were errant, and how that came to be.

Why?

ManufacturedHousingHomesSingleDoubleMultisectionAveragePricesComparedConventionalHomesSizeCostPersqFt2016NationalAssocRealtorsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

From Scholastica D. Cororaton, Certified Business Economist (CBE), research for National Association of Realtors ® (NAR).  Solid, useful data is shown above.

The purpose for correcting-the-record is to support the accuracy about the bulk of her data for manufactured housing, pure and simple. It is not to undermine her largely valuable work.

Accuracy matters, a point which Cororaton gracefully agreed to by email and telephone yesterday.

ManufacturedHomeShipmentsbyState2016NARscholasticaGayCororatonDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The bulk of Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton’s research appears to be accurate, and is insightful for serious researchers on affordable, quality, manufactured homes. 

As prominent Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) member Frank Rolfe told MHProNews last year, the manufactured home (MH) industry is in serious need of accurate information.

Lenders, investors, and reporters are all looking for accurate information, said Rolfe (note: that same point is true for affordable housing advocates, public officials, and obviously home seekers). Rolfe’s comments were part of a conversation separate but related conversation to the report featuring him and others connected with MHI, found at this link here.

MostMenAppearnNeverConsideredWhatHouseIsNeedlesslyPoorAllTheirLivesHenryDavidThoreauManufacturedHomeLivingNews

The NAR research could have benefited from some visuals of modern manufactured homes. That said, the thrust of the research is useful.  The above is provided by MHProNews, and wasn’t part of the NAR research. 

 

AveragePriceNewManufacturedHomesOctober2017NationalAssocRealtorsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

 

Accuracy, Accountability and The MHI Connection

Before taking a brief look at the important NAR research on manufactured housing, some background is useful.

Two Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) staff members, plus an MHI paid consultant, were identified by NAR’s Cororaton report as having provided her data, as well as for reviewing early drafts of the information Realtor University ® published.

“…Jenny Hodge, Vice President Research & Market Analysis, Kara Beigay, Senior Director of Government Affairs, and Marc Lifset, Consultant, of the Manufactured Housing Institute for their invaluable comments on the earlier draft and industry insights,” said Cororaton‘s acknowledgment footnote.

All three MHI team members were electronically contacted by MHProNews to check to see if they had noticed any factual errors. MHI’s current and prior chairman were also CC’d.

MediaHouseholdInocome2016ByTypeTenureInThousandsManufacturedHomeConventinalRentingDaillyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The previously responsive MHI – which for years gave timely replies to MHProNews – did not respond to our inquiries on this issue.

By contrast, NAR’s Cororaton was prompt in her reply, and open to an immediate discussion of any concerns about factual errors.

What’s fascinating is that as of this date and time, this largely useful report is entirely absent from a Google search result for “The Market for Manufactured Homes,“ and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).  Nor is it apparently on the MHI research page of their website.

Why not?

2018-07-18_1429MarketForManufacturedHousingDailyBusinessNewsMHPronews598

Further, why has there been no effort by MHI to promote a largely useful third party NAR report?

That absence, and the NAR reported absence of any follow up by MHI to have the glitches corrected, are both revealing.  They beg questions like these:

–   Did MHI review the work they participated in, once it was published by Realtor University®?

–   Since MHI staff and their consultant reportedly reviewed the draft, was there no one among them who found these errors?

–   If MHI reviewed and found the errors noted, why did they not contact Cororaton, and ask her to effect corrections?

–   Since the bulk of Cororaton‘s NAR research is useful, why hasn’t MHI put out press releases, or other media outreaches, to promote this information? Especially since it could arguably win over converts to manufactured housing? See the dearth of references from Google on this topic, in the screen capture, above.

–   Perhaps as important, why hasn’t MHI done a similar level of scholarly research, or commission truly useful third-party research?

For an association – MHI – that claims to represent ‘all aspects of factory-built housing,’ how is it that they routinely fail to properly protect and promote the industry?

LowerMonthlyCostManufacturedHomesConventinoalHouseRentalHousing2016narRealtorUDaiyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The bulk of Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton’s research appears to be accurate, and is insightful for serious researchers.

After some years of internal and external pressure on MHI, in fairness, they have produced a few articles, controversial advertorials, and arguably meh videos.  But these have gone largely unused, seem to be ineffective – based upon shipment data – and often contradict known facts – or even other MHI ‘data,’ as MHProNews has previously documented.

That debatable point brings serious minds back to the point Rolfe raised.  Namely, that the HUD Code manufactured home industry needs dependable information.

LowerMonthlyPercentCostManufacturedHomesConventinoalHouseRentalHousing2016narRealtorUDaiyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The bulk of Rscholastica “Gay” Cororaton’s research appears to be accurate, and is insightful for serious researchers.

 

Cororaton and the NAR Research

The impression from the NAR economist was that she understood the concerns MHProNews raised, and that they would be addressed.

Rephrased, Cororaton was professional, and appeared to be sincerely interested in better understanding the reality of manufactured housing (MH).  She said she wants to get the facts about the MH industry’s stated accurately.

The impression from Cororaton was that no one from MHI had contacted her with any factual concerns.

As noted, her report clearly says she valued the 3 MHI team member’s input, and she holds only herself responsible for any factual errors. Classy, and that’s the mature, educated, and professional posture.

  • That said, why doesn’t MHI have a similar attitude about accountability and accuracy? 
  • Why have they for some two years, failed to take ownership of demonstrable failures and fact errors, and make their own corrections? 
  • Why have they failed to engage with this pro-industry trade media?

It’s the failures of MHI, which reportedly led 2 state associations to leave their membership, and more recently, to start their own national association.

OddsofLivingInMobileManufacturedHOmesByRegionNARDataScholasticaCororatonDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

 

The Specific Concerns

The first error in the NAR report is relatively minor, which Cororaton quickly acknowledged.

The date that the manufactured housing industry’s standards went into effect is June 15, 1976. Mark Weiss, JD, President and CEO of the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) confirmed that date for the NAR economist, and cited relevant part of the law.

Quoting Weiss’ message to Cororaton:

MarkWeissMHARRPresidentManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsScholastica:

Regarding the below, thank you for your interest in manufactured housing, although I must concur with trade publisher Tony Kovach’s initial point.  Specifically, per 24 CFR 3282.1(a), the effective date of the federal (HUD) manufactured housing standards was June 15, 1976, not June 16, as stated in your article…”

Cororaton was but a day off on the start-date for manufactured housing. Not a huge issue, but facts are facts.  Accuracy on details arguably undergirds the rest of a document’s research. She was matter of fact, concurred, and thankful for the correction.

Another issue in her report – and a more serious one – was the graphic and related data below.

MarketforManufacturedHomesScolasticaGayCoronatonManufacturedHousingIndsutryDailyBuisnessNewMHPronews

It is the first map in the NAR report, and thus, significant in that it can set the tone for the accuracy of the rest of her research. The first clue was Hawaii, which caused a deeper look at the rest of their data.

The Realtor University ® data indicated that several states have a larger percentage of manufactured homes than they actually do.

2014ManufacturedHousingIndustryWhitePaperDailyBusinessNewsManufacturedHousingIndsstryResearchDataReportsMHProNews

That stands in contrast to the CFPB’s white paper, which is a document that was a resource for the NAR report. MHI’s consultant, Marc Lifeset, certainly is familiar with that CFPB white paper, because he’s previously told MHProNews as much.  No doubt others at MHI know the CFPB white paper too.

This percentage of homes error by state error is a more serious oversight, as public officials and others from or familiar with those states are likely to notice those factual glitches.

Why didn’t MHI notice these apparent factual errors?

 

Vital – 5 out of 5 Stars in Importance – Related Discussion for Manufactured Housing

Among the most important items discussed with Cororaton during a 90 minute call was the following. It relates to the discussion of the factors that cause appreciation and depreciation of any housing, including manufactured homes.

This NAR economist and this writer walked through what are the factors that cause appreciation and depreciation in all housing, including conventional homes or manufactured homes. We agreed upon the following (not in a specific order of improtance):

–   Location,

–   Condition of the home,

–   Local economy (jobs, opportunities),

–   Supply and Demand, and

–   Availability of financing.

Because financing is an ongoing issue for manufactured housing, the support for resale values – especially for resales in land-lease – are not as robust as they are for homes on privately owned land.

Cororaton agreed that the contraction of financing options caused conventional housing values to crash in the 2008-2009 mortgage/housing crisis. As lending began to return, conventional housing resale values rose.

When that same principle is applied to manufactured housing, one of the key reasons why manufactured homes don’t always appreciate the same as conventional housing comes into greater focus.

Conventional housing can be purchased and financed long term far more readily than manufactured homes. That’s true, even for conventional housing on a land-lease, in states like Maryland, Hawaii, and in parts of the Chicago metro, among others. Long-term mortgage financing has been done on land-lease too, for manufactured homes.  But its not something that MHI has actively pursued for years, per several sources.  Why?

In practice, it’s been well over a decades since an MHI task force dove into mortgages on land-lease.  The tests, per sources, were successful.  So why was there no robust follow up?

It is an advantage for manufactured housing to have both chattel (home only, personal property) lending options, and to also have mortgage options that operate at parity with conventional housing.

This is a crucial topic to home buyers and sellers, yet it goes largely unmentioned in MHVille trade media, save here on MHProNews.  It’s the kind of topic that a truly growth-oriented, post-production association should be promoting.

So why isn’t MHI pursuing it?

Could it be because MHI’s top two lenders – 21st Mortgage and Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance (VMF) – are both Berkshire Hathaway owned?  And wouldn‘t more real estate type financing potentially impact a profit-center that Warren Buffett has often bragged about in his annual letter to shareholders, and touted elsewhere too?  See related linked reports, at the end of this post for more details.

MonthlyPaymentEquityGainManufacturedHomesComparedNewSingleFamilySigeBuiltHomesNARScholasticaCororatonDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

The discussion of appreciation and related with manufactured homes must be seen through the prism of more access to FHA, VA, USDA (Rural Housing), GSE and other lending. See discussion, above.  An important takeaway is that manufactured homes can and do appreciate, as other research has also demonstrated.

 

Part One – the Bottom Lines

Gay Cororaton did an overall fine, professional report that was data focused.  She explained that the point discussed above about financing access and resale values was not part of the scope of her initial data-based report. That’s understandable.

Cororaton indicated that she would see what could be done to correct the fact errors, and that she plans to revisit manufactured housing in her blog posts.

The National Association or Realtors ® (NAR) dwarfs MHI, and the entire manufactured housing industry in size and scope. That said, there is much that the MH Industry could learn from NAR.

As thousands of daily, long-time, detail-oriented industry readers of MHProNews know, this publication routinely cites NAR for their valuable research.

We specifically cite Dr. Lawrence Yun, PhD, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. He’s arguably an accuracy and analysis rock star.

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

Collage by MHProNews.

The hope should be that NAR’s and Cororaton’s anticipated revised work on manufactured housing provide fuel for more evidence-based interest, investments, and embracing of the manufactured housing solution to the affordable housing crisis. Manufactured homes are a solution that’s been hiding in plain sight, a mantra started on MHLivingNews, and since picked up by others in and out of the MH industry.

Further, perhaps the NAR research will inspire in Arlington, VA a desire for greater accuracy, accountability, and willingness to correct errors.

As almost every industry veteran can confirm, when someone ‘stumbles upon’ the truth of manufactured housing – vs. the myths and misconceptions – professionals and the home buying public alike are impressed with the value found in modern HUD Code manufactured homes.

The path to growing the industry to a potential of some 500,000 to 1,000,000 (+/-) or more new HUD Code manufactured homes a year must include fact-reason-and-evidence based education.

MHI, and all others, are either part of the problem, or part of the solution. On that point, Rolfe is right. Accurate facts, defense, and proper engagement of the industry with the mainstream media and researchers very much matters.

Cororaton’s full report by NAR is found linked here, beginning on page 48 to page 78.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third-party images are and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

Related References:

Smoking Gun 3 – Warren Buffett, Kevin Clayton, Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage Corp Tim Williams – Manufactured Home Lending, Sales Grab?

 

Duty To Serve, “Complete Waste of Time” per Tim Williams, CEO/21st Mortgage; POTUS Trump, Warren Buffett Insight$

‘Tip of Iceberg’ – Rick Rand; Marty Lavin, Communities have ‘No Confidence’ in Manufactured Housing Institute, New National Trade Group Announced

Updated, added related resource:

John Wake, FSBOs, Forbes, Real Estate Decoded, Mobile Homes or Manufactured Housing Resales

 

Investors, Heartbroken Home Owners, Site Building Giant DR Horton, and Manufactured Housing

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Reuters on U.S. Housing Price Pace, Manufactured Housing Visions

June 7th, 2018 Comments off

ReutersonUSHousingPricePacePXManufacturedHOusingIndsutryDailyBusinessNEwsMHprONews

A poll by Reuters of property market analysists revels that “an acute shortage of affordable homes in the U.S. will continue over the coming year,” said a new report by CNBC.

 

U.S. house prices are slightly over-valued when looking at fundamental valuation metrics such as the median-home-price-to-income ratio,” noted Brent Campbell, economist at Moody’s Analytics.

While jobs growth and wages are rising at the best pace in years-to-decades, pay is not keeping pace with the even faster spike in housing costs. According to CNBC,Annual average earnings growth has remained below 3 percent even as house price rises have averaged more than 5 percent over the last few years.”

We are not seeing a temporary phenomenon. House prices have been outrunning family incomes for several years in the U.S. and while demand has cooled off a bit, the supply side is still very tight,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Financial Group.

Guatieri added, “I think house prices will continue to outrun family incomes for at least another year and it will take some time for demand to slow and to some extent supply to increase.”

Existing home sales account for “about 90 percent of U.S. turnover,” and are forecast to rise slightly and average 5.60 million units in each quarter this year from about 5.46 million units in April.

That would be well below the peak of 7 million units averaged during the previous housing market boom.  All of these are factors which will keep prices elevated and make housing less affordable.

As regular Daily Business News readers know, the National Association or Realtors ™ (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said that the only way to solve this is for builders to get very busy.

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

It’s a recipe – at least in theory – for a manufactured housing boom.  But for a variety of reasons, the industry has failed to convert surfers and seekers into more qualified applicants and cash buyers. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

(Third party images, and content, are provided under fair use guidelines.)

Related Reports:

Celebrate National Home Ownership Month, with 26 Cool Prefab Cribs, a $1 Billion Dollar Hybrid Mansion, 4 Fun Videos

NorthStar and Manufactured Housing Radix

 

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“Starting” Dip in Home Sales, New Crisis Says Housing Experts

March 1st, 2018 Comments off

AdamDeSanctisLawrenceYunNationalAssocRealtorsNARYouTubeDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews546x431

Washington, D.C. The economy and job growth are strong, says Adam DeSanctis, with the National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) communications team.

 

So why did contract signings for new homes take a “startling” dip in January?

There’s

  • bad news for many Americans,
  • potentially hopeful news for opportunities for the manufactured home industry’s investors and professionals,
  • and then head scratching issues in HUD Code manufactured housing that the NAR report directly and indirectly raises.

After seeing a modest three-month rise in activity, pending home sales cooled considerably in January to their lowest level in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced monthly and annual declines in contract signings last month,” said the NAR in a media statement.

The Pending Home Sales Index ® is a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings.

It fell 4.7 percent to 104.6 in January from a downwardly revised 109.8 in December 2017.

After last month’s retreat, the index is now 3.8 percent below a year ago and at its lowest level since October 2014 (104.1).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales took a noticeable step back to start 2018.

The economy is in great shape, most local job markets are very strong and incomes are slowly rising, but there’s little doubt last month’s retreat in contract signings occurred because of woefully low supply levels and the sudden increase in mortgage rates,” Yun said.

The lower end of the market continues to feel the brunt of these supply and affordability impediments. With the cost of buying a home getting more expensive and not enough inventory, some prospective buyers are either waiting until listings increase come spring or now having to delay their search entirely to save up for a larger down payment, stated Yun.

This is one of several areas that manufactured housing could be providing a much needed boost for the overall housing market.

ValuableWordsCommentaryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

HUD’s regulatory review could lead to solutions, if the agency dig deeply into the issues that are holding the industry back from being able to meet the needs that Yun’s research – and that of other housing experts – reveals. http://www.mhpronews.com/blogs/daily-business-news/hud-reg-review-could-yield-housing-econ-boom-plus-mh-market-update/

But arguably,

  • controversies surrounding the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and some of their major players,
  • plus over a decade of improper actions at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD),
  • and other interrelated issues has yielded a negative storm that harms the interests of millions of Americans,
  • while also acting as a limiting factor for many in the manufactured home industry.

Warren Buffett’s Annual Report to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders, Clayton Homes and Manufactured Housing

Added Yun, “Even though contract signings were down, Realtors® indicated that buyer traffic in most areas was up January compared to a year ago1. The exception was likely in the Northeast, where the frigid cold snap the first two weeks of the month may have contributed some to the region’s large decline.”

The number of available listings at the end of January was at an all-time low for the month and a startling 9.5 percent below a year ago, says NAR.

In addition to new home construction making progress closer to its historical annual average of 1.5 million starts,

As new multi-family supply catches up with demand and slows rents, some large investors may begin putting their holdings of affordable single-family homes up for sale, which would be great news, particularly for first-time buyers,” said Yun.

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

In 2018, Yun forecasts for existing-home sales to be around 5.50 million – roughly unchanged from 2017 (5.51 million). The national median existing-home price this year is expected to increase around 2.7 percent. In 2017, existing sales increased 1.1 percent and prices rose 5.8 percent.

Note that the NAR video has related information, but the quotes above are not in the video.

If these underlying issues aren’t addressed, doesn’t the Obama era data – linked below – indicate the economic harm caused, and perhaps reflect a potentially avoidably economic stall?

YIMBY vs. NIMBY, Obama Admin Concept Could Unlock $1.95 Trillion Annually, HUD & MH Impact

 

Manufactured Housing and the NAR Data, What Does it Mean?

The issues raised by the NAR’s experts point to concerns that MHProNews has raised for years, and with increased intensity in roughly the past 18 months.

When manufactured housing has the advantage of the enhanced preemption called for by the HUD Code, why are MHI and some key larger players delaying a meaningful public and media engagement effort that would allow the current products of manufactured home producers to be better understood, and thus more widely embraced?

Is it incompetence, or some other agenda?

While everyone makes mistakes, no one is accusing MHI’s top staff or leaders to be fools.

So rule incompetence out.

Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) Gives Written Responses – “Part of a Rigged, Corrupt System”

Therefore, when HUD Code manufactured home sales are already being made – albeit at relatively modest levels – to the kinds of buyers that would seek a site-built home, why has MHI foot dragged and failed to take robust steps, which their budget makes possible?

Last year at Tunica, manufactured home lender Credit Human’s long-time industry veteran, Barry Noffsinger laid out the case for how some professionals are already selling homes to those who might otherwise buy a conventional house.

Related at this link.

Meanwhile, the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and others in the industry – including MHI members – share insights with MHProNews that MHI routinely ducks out on responding to; why?  If there is nothing for MHI’s leadership to hide from, why do they duck pro-industry, pro-growth, pro-consumer trade media questions?

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Home Sales slide in December, But Rose Overall in 2017, Import for Manufactured Housing

January 24th, 2018 Comments off

DecemberHousingSnapshotNARGraphicDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews525

While conventional housing remains hot, the statistics that follow continue to spell “opportunity” for visionary, and long-term thinkers in manufactured housing.

 

Existing-home sales [EHS] subsided in most of the country in December, but 2017 as a whole edged up 1.1 percent and ended up being the best year for sales in 11 years,” according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

Total existing-home sales…which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.1 percent in 2017 to a 5.51 million sales pace and surpassed 2016 (5.45 million) as the highest since 2006 (6.48 million),” the NAR said in a release to the Daily Business News.

 

2017-12-ehs-ExistingHomeSaleshousingNationalAssocRealtorsNAR-snapshot-infographic-01-24-2018DailyBuisnessNewsMHProNews600

 

In December, existing-home sales slipped 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million from a downwardly revised 5.78 million in November. After last month’s decline, sales are still 1.1 percent above a year ago.”

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

The quotes above are from the special Daily Business News report, linked below.

NAR’s Yun – No Quick Fixes Spell$ Manufactured Housing Opportunitie$

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market performed remarkably well for the U.S. economy in 2017, with substantial wealth gains for homeowners and historically low distressed property sales.

Existing sales concluded the year on a softer note, but they were guided higher these last 12 months by a multi-year streak of exceptional job growth, which ignited buyer demand,” said Yun. “At the same time, market conditions were far from perfect. New listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country. These two factors ultimately muted what should have been a stronger sales pace.”

Added Yun, “Closings scaled back in most areas last month for this same reason. Affordability pressures persisted, and the pool of interested buyers at the end of the year significantly outweighed what was available for sale.”

 

ExistingHomeSalesEHSNationalAssocRealtorsNARDailyBuisnessNewsMHProNews

 

The median existing-home price for all housing types [not including manufactured housing] in December was $246,800, up 5.8 percent from December 2016 ($233,300). December’s price increase marks the 70th straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 11.4 percent to 1.48 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 10.3 percent lower than a year ago (1.65 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 31 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 3.6 months a year ago and is the lowest level since NAR began tracking in 1999.

Those boosts in home values could be significant for those who are selling manufactured homes to retirees or other ‘downsizers.’

The lack of supply over the past year has been eye-opening and is why, even with strong job creation pushing wages higher, home price gains – at 5.8 percent nationally in 2017 – doubled the pace of income growth and were even swifter in several markets,” said Yun.

First-time buyers were 32 percent of sales in December, which is up from 29 percent in November and unchanged from a year ago.

U.S. Association, Plus Canadian-Owned U.S. based MH Lender Release Video, Facts on Modern Manufactured Homes and MH Homebuyers

With the typical manufactured home price hovering around $70,000, the opportunities for manufactured housing pros are strong.

KYPs, and the $64 Billion Dollar Question-Monday Morning Manufactured Housing Sale$ Meeting

But there is a clear need to tap into the kinds of strategies that will attract and ‘convert’ conventional housing shoppers into manufactured home buyers.  ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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National Housing Statistics, New and Existing Home Sales, Manufactured Home Industry Related Insights

November 8th, 2017 Comments off
lawrence_yun,_nar_chief_economist=realtor-mag-realtor-org-

Lawrence Yun. Credit: NAR.

The National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) produces housing statistics on the national, regional, and metro-market level where data is available.

In a recent press release to the  the NAR reported that “After three straight monthly declines, existing-home sales slightly reversed course in September, but ongoing supply shortages and recent hurricanes muted overall activity and caused sales to fall back on an annual basis.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that closings mustered a meager gain in September, but declined on an annual basis for the first time in over a year (July 2016; 2.2 percent).

HousingIndicatorsNARSept2017DailyBuisnessNewsMHProNews

Home sales in recent months remain at their lowest level of the year and are unable to break through, despite considerable buyer interest in most parts of the country,” Yun said.

USEconomicOutlookNARNov2017DailyBusinessNewsMHProNews720

While Yun’s printed statement doesn’t reflect it, this is an interesting 1 year snapshot since the 2016 election that swept Donald J. Trump into the White House, one year ago today  To see the entire report, full sized, please click here or the graphic above.

Realtors® this fall continue to say the primary impediments stifling sales growth are the same as they have been all year: not enough listings – especially at the lower end of the market – and fast-rising prices that are straining the budgets of prospective buyers,” per Yun’s statement.

Affordable Manufactured Homes in the Broader Marketplace

Inventory of affordability has been an issue, as MHProNews and MHLivingNews has reported for some time.

While that should bode well for manufactured housing – and there are exceptions to the rule – the industry at large has not yet capitalized on the growing demand for affordable homes.

PhotoCreditManufacturedHomes-com-postedDailyBusinessNews-MHProNews-ManufacturedHousingIndustryShipmentReport

To see the latest manufactured home new homes shipment report, click here or the graphic above. Photo credit at top, ManufacturedHomes.com; text credit, MHProNews.

Even adjusting for land cost, existing and single-family home prices are well above those of manufactured homes, as industry professionals know.

MHProNews will provide a how-to special report on this issue tomorrow.

The NAR housing portion of the statistics are shown below.

NARNov2017HousingSalesSeasonallyAdjustedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

For the NAR entire download, click here or the graphic above.

The latest general economic snapshot mirrors prior reports provided here on MHProNews. That report is available here as a download.   ## (News, analysis, commentary.)

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Case-Shiller Numbers Release make Case for Manufactured Housing

May 31st, 2017 Comments off
CaseShillerHomePriceNumbersReleasedcreditMHProNews-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

The latest numbers support the argument that manufactured housing is the answer. Credit: MHProNews.

New numbers released from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index this week, show a 5.8 percent annual gain in March, up from 5.7 percent in February.

The numbers represent a 33-month high.

According to Builder, Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities measured. Seattle led the way with a 12.3 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland coming in at 9.2 percent, and Dallas finished with an 8.6 percent increase.

Home prices continue rising with the S&P CoreLogic Case -Shiller National Index up 5.8 percent in the year ended March, the fastest pace in almost three years,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

While there is some regional variation, prices are rising across the U.S. Half of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices rose more than 6 percent from March 2016 to March 2017. The smallest gain of 4.1 percent, in New York, was roughly double the rate of inflation.”

CaseShillerHomePriceNumbersReleasedcreditBuilder1-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Builder.

Prior to seasonal adjustments, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.8 percent in March, and after seasonal adjustment, the number showed a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase.

Sales of both new and existing homes, housing starts and the National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index are all trending higher. Over the last year, analysts suggested that one factor pushing prices higher was the unusually low inventory of homes for sale. People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up,” said Blitzer.

If mortgage rates, currently near 4 percent, rise further, this could deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices. While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”

CaseShillerHomePriceNumbersReleasedcreditBuilder2-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Builder.

 

The Impact… and the Opportunity 

Blitzer’s comment regarding home prices and pressure on inventories presents an interesting scenario.

Numbers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) last week showed existing homes stayed on the market for less time in April than in any month since 2011, but tight inventory drove a decline in existing home sales over March’s record pace.

Demand from buyers is still far exceeding the available supply, leading to both the decline in existing home sales and the fact that homes are flying off the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Demand is easily outstripping supply in most of the country and it’s stymieing many prospective buyers from finding a home to purchase.”

Yun continued, focused on the root of the issue.

Realtors continue to voice the frustration their clients are experiencing because of the insufficient number of homes for sale,” said Yun.

Homes in the lower- and mid-market price range are hard to find in most markets, and when one is listed for sale, interest is immediate and multiple offers are nudging the eventual sales prices higher.”

The challenges referenced by Yun show a site built housing market that is, by all accounts, upside down. Demand for affordable housing is outstripping supply, keeping those who would otherwise be able to realize the dream of home ownership from doing so.

Customers quickly discover that when home shoppers give a good, careful look at today’s residential style manufactured and modular homes, many are saying ‘yes.’

With interest rates rising, and more cities considering or being urged to accept manufactured homes as infill, the manufactured home industry’s opportunities are rising.

As the Daily Business News has covered, the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform has made similar points, and is calling for a full implementation of the law – notably the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA 2000) – as a key way to fuel more industry sales to meet the demands of an affordable home-hungry public. ##

 

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Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

 

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