Archive

Posts Tagged ‘housing starts’

“Make MH Great Again” – Marty Lavin Exclusive

August 4th, 2017 Comments off

MakeMHGreatAgainMartyLavinManufacturedHousingIndustryCommentaryDailyBusinessNewsMHproNewsIt could prove to be one of the most controversial, witty, sarcastic, and challenging commentaries of the year about the state of the modestly growing manufactured housing industry.

The title MHI award-winning Marty Lavin has chosen isn’t “Make MH Great Again.” But that’s precisely what his unstated theme is.

Lavin looks at the facts.

He thoughtfully examines the industry’s “business model.”  Step by step, the actively retired veteran unpacks the present in light of the past that brought the industry to this stage.

The attorney and industry expert’s writings have long been of keen interest to investors, the GSEs, thousands of MH professionals, association leaders — and even the industry’s billionaires.

As his classic home in a posh Burlington neighborhood – and the fine three-level custom Italian vessel berthed in Miami reflect, Lavin’s years in the community, retail and finance sides of the manufactured home industry brought him significant success.

His points are not to be taken lightly.

FollowTheMoneyPayMoreAttentionToWhatPeopleDoThanWhatTheySayMartyLavin6MillionYachtManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNews600

Lavin’s must-read views will be live on the MHProNews home page Sunday night, August 6, 2017.  His commentary will be joined by over 18 featured articles, including several other notable industry professionals.  Don’t miss it. ## (News, commentary, scheduling, announcements.)

Update: Marty’s article is live on the home page, at this link here.

(Image credits are as shown above.)

SoheylaKovachManufacturedHomeLivingNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-Submitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News on MHProNews.com

Housing Starts See Biggest Gains in Ten Years

November 21st, 2016 Comments off
housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditmenofvalue-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: Men of Value.

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that new home construction increased significantly in October.

Privately owned housing starts were up 25.5 percent for the month, beating the revised estimate of 1.05 to 1.32 million in September. The number is also up 23.3 percent when compared year on year.

Single-family housing starts increased 10.7 percent from September’s 785,000 to 869,000 in October.

housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditlinkedindavidberson-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

David Berson. Credit: LinkedIn.

Housing starts jumped in October – climbing to the strongest pace since 2007 – as multifamily units bounced back sharply from an unusual (and temporary) decline during September,” said Nationwide Insurance Chief Economist David Berson. “Single family starts continued their rise as well, as strong demand for owner-occupied housing spurs home construction activity.

What’s leading to the increase may be surprising – millennials.

Housing starts are being driven higher by improved household growth as the economy promotes further job and income gains,” Berson said.

With improved employment and income prospects, millennials are an expanding portion of housing demand as they move out of their parents’ homes – increasingly to form families. 

housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditnahb-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: NAHB.

Building permits also increased in October, up 4.6 percent year-over-year according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Combined with housing starts, there is strong builder confidence for the month of November.

housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditnahb-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Bill Banfield. Credit: LinkedIn.

The report is a boost of confidence for the housing market, as we haven’t seen a month-to-month leap like this in more than 30 years,” said Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield.

While much of this was driven by the multifamily segment, we cannot overlook the significance of the gains made on single-family home construction – increasing to their highest levels in nine years. Furthermore, continued gains in permits led by the single-family sector keep optimism high as we move toward the winter months.

At least one expert sees even more room for growth.

Controlling for the number of households in the U.S., housing starts are only about 66% of their 50-year average,” said Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin. “Clearly, the homebuilding sector represents an industry that has potential to grow under a Trump stimulus plan.

housingstartsseebiggestgainsintenyearscreditlinkedinralphbmclaughlin-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Ralph McLaughlin. Credit: LinkedIn.

There’s also the potential “Trump Effect“.

A big question heading into 2017 is how homebuilders will fare under a Trump administration,” McLaughlin said.

While we think some of his broader economic policies might hurt builders, such as immigration and trade policies that could restrict both labor supply and raw materials, we also think he’ll likely implement builder-friendly policies, such as infrastructure stimulus and financial sector reform.

While the construction sector has a high number of undocumented workers, which could be a cause of concern with the Trump Administration’s potential plans regarding deportations, McLaughlin still sees potential benefits.

President-Elect Trump could implement a number of policies to help push the number of starts toward their historical average, but there’s a long way to go,” McLaughlin said.

Though Mr. Trump has discussed demand-side policies that would ease mortgage lending, such as Dodd-Frank reform, we encourage the President-Elect to also focus on supply-side policies given inventory shortages across the country.

The Daily Business News recently provided in-depth coverage on plans for Dodd-Frank reform from the Trump Administration, and a report from Realtor on the 2017 home buying season and the potential impact that millennials could have. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Home Construction Continues its Slow but Steady Incline

August 16th, 2016 Comments off

house under const housingwire.com credit postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsThe rate of housing starts in July rose to its highest level in six months, plus 2.1 percent overall to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.21 million from 1.19 million in June, according to numbers from the Commerce Department reported by usnews.

The bulk of the gain came from an 8.3 percent rise in multifamily construction starts, especially in the Northeast where construction climbed 15.3 percent. Construction of single-family homes rose only 0.3 percent, as MHProNews understands.

Continued recovery in housing will be supported by historically low mortgage rates, coupled with a firming labor market that has begun to spur on wage gains for workers,” said Neil Shankar, an economist at TD Bank.

Housing starts outpacing construction may limit future building increases, as housing permits fell 0.1 percent in July to an annual rate of 1.15 million.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, “The gap between the sales and permits numbers is not unprecedented, but it is wide, and we have to expect permits to rebound strongly in the near future.”

Ground-breaking for single-family homes has increased 10.6 percent, while multifamily starts have fallen slightly following a fiery pace recently.

Low mortgage rates and an improving job market have resulted in the sale of new homes at their strongest rate since early in 2008, and existing home sales are marking their best rate since 2007.

Furthermore, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index rose two points to 60, after a downwardly revised reading of 58 last month. Any number over 50 indicates builders anticipate sales conditions as good rather than poor. ##

(Editor’s Note: Contrast the rise in conventional housing sales with the rise in manufactured home sales, see a MH monthly report, suitable for the public, linked here.)

(Photo credit: housingwire-new home construction)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Housing Starts, Single-family Home Construction Shows Promise in June

July 20th, 2016 Comments off

home sales rising  housingwire com  credit postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsThe Commerce Department tells MHProNews that housing starts rose 4.8 percent in June to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.19 million. While the June rate was the highest since Feb., it was down from 1.21 million a year ago, according to philly.

Meanwhile, construction of single-family homes increased 4.4 percent in June to 778,000, as home building rose 46.3 percent in the Northeast and 17.4 percent in the West. Builders have focused more on single-family homes this year, moving away from multifamily which dominated much of the building scene in recent years.

The housing boom of the mid-200s was producing above a 1.7 million home annual rate, but that fell below 600,000 as the housing bubble burst. The past year the rate has hovered between 1.1 million and 1.2 million.

This morning’s report was quite upbeat,” Neil Shankar, U.S. regional economist at TD Economics, wrote in a research note. “Continued job creation coupled with rising wages and low interest rates bodes well for a broader rebound in housing demand as well as consumer spending.”

Completion of multifamily housing, which includes buildings with over five residential units, hit 386,000 in June, the highest number since 1989. In the highest seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) since Sept. 2008, builders completed work on almost 1.15 million homes. ##

(Graphic credit: housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Builder Confidence for Single-family Homes May be Stretched

July 8th, 2016 Comments off

HousingStartsBuilderConfidence-credit-NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders_CapitalEconomics-postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews)In an examination of the relationship between single-family housing starts and builder confidence as derived from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) monthly survey, businessinsider stated the bullishness of builders may be ill-advised, as MHProNews has learned.

Even though confidence rose to the highest level in June since January, hitting 60 (any number over 50 indicates builders are confident), Capital Economics’ Matthew Pointon reports builder confidence may have to fall initially:

Thanks to both bank caution and a host of new regulations there is no chance of a return to the very loose credit conditions of the mid-2000s, which helped drive the construction boom. So, although starts will increase towards confidence, we also suspect confidence will fall back towards starts. Indeed, there have been a couple of occasions in the past when the NAHB measure rose well above starts — in the mid-1990s and early 2000s. But in both cases it was a fall in confidence which restored the relationship, rather than a rise in housing starts.” See chart. ##

(HousingStartsBuilderConfidence-imagecredit-NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/CapitalEconomics-postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

MH Industry Leaders Pursue New Marketing Strategies

May 25th, 2016 Comments off

manuf home   royal homes of raleigh  nc  creditAt the 2016 National Congress & Expo for Manufactured and Modular Housing held in Las Vegas, 700 manufactured housing (MH) professionals heard a panel of industry leaders state that, with the onset of seniors downsizing, single-parent households and Millennials becoming the largest consumer group, the time is ripe for MH to move to the forefront of affordable housing.

According to sbwire, the discussion revealed the U. S. needs 1.3 to 1.4 million housing starts annually to keep up with demand, and that 55 percent of new mortgages are for first-time home buyers.

Noting the value of the entry-level market “that brought us to the dance,” CEO Kevin Clayton of Clayton Homes said MH producers are reaching out to a broader range of potential consumers who are just now discovering the MH lifestyle, with a focus on price, image, aesthetics and marketing strategies.

Energy savings and curb appeal have to be part of that draw, said Clayton, who said MH interiors are modern, and emphasized his company is drawing a bead on enhancing the exteriors away from the traditional skirting and low roof lines.

Now that the interior is nailed, we need to destroy that trailer image,” created by the outdated exteriors, said Don Westphal, who designs and develops manufactured home communities.

Champion Homes CEO Keith Anderson said his company is altering the outside to make MH look more like site-built homes but without major cost, and is tapping into the Millennials market via social media, new websites, MHVillage and its own employee base. He added Champion has seen a 500 percent increase in website hits and leads in the last six months.

Gary McDaniels, whose Yes! Communities zero in on creating family-focused developments, said the industry can meet every price point, but most consumers are looking for a clean, secure and affordable place to raise their families.

For more on what industry leaders had to say about the future of factory-built housing, see “Where do we go from here?” on MHProNews here.  ##

(Image credit: Royal Homes of Raleigh)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Housing Starts, Building Permits, pre-existing Home Sales Rise

May 17th, 2016 Comments off

housing_permit_form__san_jose_ca_govAccording to what wsj tells MHProNews, housing starts rose 6.6 percent in April over the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,172 million units, indicating an uptick since a slow start in Q1. (It should be noted the 6.6 rise has a margin of error of plus or minus 10.2 percent.) “We embrace the steady growth story, with single-family starts getting above the 800,000 level at some point this year, but not the myth of starts returning to the promised land of pre-recession levels of construction,” said Steven Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research LLC.

Accounting for nearly two-thirds of new construction, starts on single-family homes rose 3.3 percent in April, while multifamily (with five or more units) increased 10.7 percent to 373,000.

New applications for building permits rose 3.6 percent to 1.116 million from a downwardly revised March rate of 1.077 million. With permits trailing starts for the past three months, housing starts may slow down in the next few months.

In the first four months of 2016, single-family housing starts are up 16.8 percent compared to the first four months of 2015. When multi-family starts are included, the rate drops to 10.2 percent versus last year.

The number of privately-owned homes under construction hit 999,000 in April, the highest number since 2008, according to the Commerce Department. Multi-family units under construction reached 555,000, the highest level since 1974.

Other measures indicate 2016 is off to a rough start as sales of newly-built homes fell for the third straight month in March, although the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports sales of pre-existing homes rose 5.1 percent in March.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells MHProNews sentiment among home builders in May remains at 58, where it has been for four months, following eight months of readings above 60.

Many builders continue to report shortages of skilled labor and buildable lots. Additionally, in many parts of the country home prices are rising faster than wages, making it more difficult for would-be homeowners to save enough for a down payment. ##

(Image credit: San Jose, CA government form)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

NAR Forecasts Strong Existing Home Sales in 2016, Calls for more Starter Homes

May 13th, 2016 Comments off

Home_for_sale_wktv_jan_26_2016Despite continuing inventory, affordability and student loan hindrances to homeownership, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts 2016 will be the strongest year for existing home sales since 2006. Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, speaking at the association’s Legislative Meeting,predicts pre-owned home sales will hit 5.4 million this year, and home prices will rise an average of 4.5 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) emphasized the need for student loan reform saying it can “breathe new life into housing markets.” She referenced the seven out of ten college graduates who take out student loans and then have to pay it back for years at high interest rates.

As constructiondive tells MHProNews, Yun said sluggish housing starts are slowing the overall market and that builders need to increase the inventory of starter homes. Leaving out the starter homes results in new home prices rising faster than existing sales.

Noting the restrictions imposed by Dodd-Frank on banks of all sizes, Yun said, Much of the lending for single-family housing starts historically has been among the community bank and the smaller-sized banks,” he said. “Smaller banks are hindered by this massive new regulation. Now they are frozen, and they are not making those loans.” ##

(Photo credit: wktv–home for sale)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Freddie Mac Forecasts Best Year in Ten for Housing Industry

April 1st, 2016 Comments off

crystal ball foto searchAccording to what Freddie Mac tells MHPrpNews in nationalmortgagenews, despite low wage growth this year, the housing market will reach its highest level in sales, housing starts and housing prices since 2006. It will be largely driven by interest rates that remain below four percent for a 30-year fixed rate, even given the Fed’s rate hike.

Wage growth is “’anemic, barely keeping pace with inflation,” says Freddie, and labor force participation has fallen. (MHProNews adds: In the one day since this article was published, 215,000 more jobs were added in March, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.9 percent to five percent, indicating more people were out looking to rejoin the work force.)

Freddie cautions: “If wages and incomes do not start rising, then rising interest rates, home prices and rents will squeeze households and ultimately slow housing markets.” However, a slowdown in site-built homes could be a spur for the manufactured housing industry. ##

(Image credit: fotosearch)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily business News-MHProNews.

Manufactured Home Opportunities may Derive from Tight Housing Market

March 28th, 2016 Comments off

mh_on_truck__credit_champion_homesChief Financial Officer (CFO) Jeff Kaminski of KB Homes, the eighth largest homebuilder in the U. S. says the new housing crisis is being caused by the lack of homes, which in turn raises prices of existing homes, pricing many people out of the market.

First-time KB home buyers in 2008 and 2009 accounted for 60 to 70 percent of sales, but that number has dropped to 50 percent, reports yahoofinance. It’s not so much slow wage growth, according to Kaminski, it’s that people do not want to be tied to credit.

In addition, he says the price point for first-time homebuyers has increased by $100,000 because new housing starts are low, driving up prices. Further, people moving to urban areas seeking work have driven demand n city centers, forcing prices up as well, as MHProNews has learned.

However, he states as the labor market continues improving, people drawn to city centers may have more desire to move to suburban areas where there are more homes available.

MHLivingNews.com publisher L. A. “Tony” Kovach noted that the challenges KB’s executive points to offer potential opportunities for manufactured housing pros. ##

(Photo credit: Champion Homes)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.