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Posts Tagged ‘housing market index’

Homebuilder Confidence Numbers Show Need for Manufactured Housing

May 18th, 2017 Comments off
NewDatafromNAHBonCashSalesforHomescreditNAHBMPAMagMarletteHomes-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Manufactured Housing: a “front and center” solution. Credits: NAHB, MPA Mag, Marlette Homes.

New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) showed that homebuilder confidence grew in May to its second highest point since the recession.

The report, which is compiled from a monthly survey that the NAHB has conducted for 30 years, gauges homebuilder sentiment of current single-family homes sales, and expectations over the next six months.

According to HousingWire, homebuilder confidence increased by two points in May, rising to 70, up from 68 in April. In the survey, a number over 50 indicates that most homebuilders in the survey view conditions as good rather than poor.

NAHBCommentaryOnDoddFrankRollbackcreditBuilderMagazine-GrangerMcDonald-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Granger McDonald. Credit: Builder Magazine.

This report shows that builders’ optimism in the housing market is solidifying, even as they deal with higher building material costs and shortages of lots and labor,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

As the Daily Business News covered here, the Commerce Department reported that single-family homebuilding market rose 0.4 percent to a pace of 835,000 units in April, with single-family starts growing 19.4 percent in the Midwest and 9.1 percent in the West, while they fell 3.4 percent in the South and tumbled 29.2 percent in the Northeast.

While Granger sees optimism, economists polled by Reuters believe that homebuilders are failing to effectively take advantage of a chronic shortage of properties for sale amid complaints about expensive building materials and shortages of lots and labor.

Overall, two of the three components that make up the HMI increased in May, with the sales expectation component rising four points to 79, and the current sales component rose two points to 76. By comparison, the component that measures buyer traffic dropped to 51.

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Robert Dietz. Credit Twitter.

The HMI measure of future sales conditions reached its highest level since June 2005, a sign of growing consumer confidence in the new home market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Especially as existing home inventory remains tight, we can expect increased demand for new construction moving forward.”

 

 

 

Increased Demand… But Can It Be Met?

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A Clayton Homes factory. The ability to produce quickly and effectively with proper oversight is key to solving housing challenges. Credit: Clayton Homes.

Comments from Dietz expose a significant challenge for the site built housing industry, where a confluence of cost, labor, timing and demand all meet… and cannot be satisfied quickly enough.

With consumer demand for quality, affordable housing that can be delivered quickly, the manufactured housing industry sits “in the driver’s seat” when it comes to being able to fill that gap.

Even though manufactured and modular homebuilders are also susceptible to crunches at times, one of the numerous advantages of factory building is the ability to recruit and train team members who can work effectively in a production center environment. When combined with the ability to significantly cut down on production time, manufactured housing serves as the ideal solution to inventory and housing challenges.

solutionusaffordablehousingcrisishidingplainsight-mhlivingnews-billmatchneertonykovach-posteddailybusinessnewsmhpronews

Credit: MHLivingNews.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##

 

(Image credits are as shown above, and when provided by third parties, are shared under fair use guidelines.)

 

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RC Williams, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

 

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Homebuilder Confidence Numbers Released

March 20th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: NAHB.

In the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released last week, homebuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped six points to a level of 71, the highest it has been since June 2005.

According to Eye On Housing, one of the reasons for the increased confidence is that builders have started to realize benefits from President Trump’s actions on regulatory reform, specifically his recent executive order to rescind or revise the “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) rule that affects permitting.

The rule extended the areas in which homebuilders are required to get permits, often interfering with state and local regulatory authority. Recently, two courts have issued a temporary halt.

NAHBCommentaryOnDoddFrankRollbackcreditBuilderMagazine-GrangerMcDonald-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Granger McDonald. Credit: Builder Magazine.

NAHB commends President Trump for listening to our serious concerns about the flawed WOTUS rule that goes so far as to regulate man-made ditches and isolated ponds on private property,” said NAHB President Granger MacDonald at the signing ceremony for the executive order in February.

This is an important first step towards fixing the flawed regulation and working towards a more sensible WOTUS rulemaking.

HomebuilderConfidenceNumbersReleasedcreditEyeOnHousing-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

Credit: NAHB.

In the index, all three HMI components showed sold gains in March, with current sales conditions increasing seven points to 78, sales expectations over the next six months rising five points to 78m and buyer traffic jumping eight points to 54.

While the numbers are positive, they do come with some guidance.

While builders are clearly confident, we expect some moderation in the index moving forward. Builders continue to face a number of challenges, including rising material prices, higher mortgage rates, and shortages of lots and labor,” the NAHB said in a statement.

The HMI also benefited from unseasonably warm weather at the start of 2017, improving both demand and construction conditions.

The Housing Market Index from NAHB is derived from a monthly survey which has been conducted for 30 years, and gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months.

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers, and scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good, as opposed to poor.

 

“Sentiment” Versus Production

While the report from the NAHB reflects the sentiment of homebuilders, the most recent manufactured home production report from MHARR shows an actual production increase of 33.5 percent in January.

As Daily Business News readers are already aware, manufactured housing continues to offer one of the most practical and affordable solutions to providing a chance at the American dream for those who wish to own a home.

The titans of business recognize the opportunity as well, as giants and independents alike are actually “doubling down” on the industry.

ELS Chairman Sam Zell has been famously quoted as correcting misconceptions about the industry, saying during this interview, “Everyone calls them trailer parks. Pencil head, it’s not a trailer park.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##

 

(Image credits are as shown above.)

 

 

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews

NAHB Builder Sentiment Index Rises; Economist Questions Veracity

June 16th, 2016 Comments off

house under const  housingwireWith a reading over 50 meaning most builders see the single-family housing market as good rather than poor, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index rose two points to 60 in June over May, according to wsj., although economists expected a reading of 59.

Positive since mid-2014, the index hit a post-recession high of 65 in Oct. 2015, but has remained at 58 the previous months.

Continuing to move unevenly, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports existing home sales rose in April, but only for the 2nd consecutive month, while the Commerce Dept. tells MHProNews sales of new single-family homes also increased in April to their fastest annual rate since 2008.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U. S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. said housing is gaining momentum; but economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc. says the home builders index has diverged noticeably from the actual pace of homebuilding since 2012, with sentiment outpacing building. “There remains a big disconnect between what home builders are saying and what they are actually doing,” he added.

Typically, low mortgage rates and steady job gains increase the demand for housing, but a combination of only 38,000 new jobs added last month, and continuing shortages of skilled labor and buildable lots may hamper the new homes industry in coming months.

Of the four regions, the NAHB index indicates only the Midwest fell, losing four points to 56.The Northeast moved up three points to 39, the South gained four points to 64 and the West saw an advance of three points to 70. ##

(Photo credit: housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

NAHB:Builder Confidence in 55+ Market Slips, yet Still on Positive Ground

May 7th, 2016 Comments off

senior smiling   masterfile creditThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) informs MHProNews that builder confidence in NAHB’s 55+ Housing Market Index dropped five points from the previous quarter, but remains at 56, where any reading above 50 indicates builders feel more positive than negative about the next six months. It also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of builder confidence being in positive territory.

There are two indices for the two segments of the 55+ housing market, single family homes and multifamily condos. Each survey measures current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated sales for the next six months.

As mpamag reports, two of the three 55+ single-family measurements fell in Q1 2016: current sales fell four points to 61; prospective buyer traffic plummeted from 52 down to 38; but anticipated sales for the coming six months rose eight points to 71, the highest reading since the index began in the darkening days of 2008.

Meanwhile, although the 55+ multifamily condo rose six points, it remains in negative territory at 48.

As MHProNews understands, the 55+ market represents a huge potential for manufactured homes as Baby Boomers age, 30 percent of whom do not have sufficient assets to maintain their current lifestyles, according to one study. ##

(Photo credit: masterfile)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

 

Builder Confidence for Single-family Homes Remains at 58

March 16th, 2016 Comments off

house building  comstock premiumCalling it “slow but steady progress,” the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports to MHProNews that the Housing Market Index for March was unchanged at 58, after rising to 64 last October, which was a ten-year high.

January saw sales of existing homes hit the second highest rate of the expansion, according to marketwatch, with housing selling so strong inventory of for sale homes fell to one of its lowest points in decades, moving prices higher.

A survey conducted by the Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed an overwhelming preference of homeowners want a single-family home in the suburbs.

Chief Economist for the NAR, Lawrence Yun, said, “Supply and demand imbalances and unhealthy levels of price growth in several metro areas have made buying an affordable home an onerous task for far too many first-time buyers and middle-class families.”

While Yun added, “It’s time for homebuilders to double their focus on constructing single-family homes,” builder members continue to report difficulties obtaining lots and workers. ##

(Photo credit: comstock)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Housing Market Index slips for Single-family Homes

November 19th, 2015 Comments off

housingwire creditFalling from a ten-year high of 65 in October, the National Association of Home Builders tells MHProNews the housing market index dropped three points to 62, falling below The Wall Street Journal consensus estimate by a point. Any number over 50 indicates builders of single-family homes are optimistic.

The November report is pullback from an unusually high October, and is more in line with the consistent, modest growth that we have seen throughout the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “A firming economy, continued job creation and affordable mortgage rates should keep housing on an upward trajectory as we approach 2016.

NAHB Chairman Tom Woods echoed a sentiment heard often in past months: Lots and labor are not always plentiful.

The measure of builder expectations for sales in the coming six months fell five points, but is still at 70. Builder sense of present sales conditions dropped three points to 67, and the measure of buyer traffic rose a point to 48.

Fueled by strong home sales, low interest rates and a growing labor market—which eventually translates into more home sales—rising sentiment could feed into a pickup in construction. Although the number of housing starts has more than doubled since the depths of the recession, it continues to remain roughly half of its high point in 2006, and historically weak. ##

(Graphic credit: housingwire)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Homebuilder Sentiment Hits Ten-Year High

September 16th, 2015 Comments off

home building   fotosearchAccording to cnbc, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the Housing Market Index (HMI) of builder sentiment rose to 62 in September, the highest level since 2005, and now in positive territory (above 50) since July, 2014.

The HMI shows that single-family housing is making solid progress,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods. “However, our members continue to tell us that they are concerned about the availability of lots and labor.”

Current sales conditions rose one point to 67, while sales expectations for the next six months dropped two points to 68. Current traffic of potential buyers did rise two points to 47, but remains in negative territory.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe expects 1.1 million total housing starts this year, both single-family and multifamily.

As a recap, MHProNews reminds readers housing starts rose 12.8 percent in July over June, but building permits fell 1.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports mortgage applications in advance of minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting fell seven percent in the week ending Sept. 11. ##

(Photo credit: fotosearch)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

55+ Housing Market Index Remains Steady

August 12th, 2015 Comments off

baby_boomers____howstuffworksThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports its 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped one point to 57 in the second quarter of 2015, but maintains the fifth consecutive quarter with a reading over 50. Any number over 50 indicates builders think conditions are good rather than poor, according to consumeraffairs.

Distinguishing between single-family homes and multi-family condos, the survey is based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and outlook for six months.

In the single-family HMI sector, present sales fell two points to 62, expected sales for the next six months slipped one point to 66, while prospective buyers rose three points to 43.

In the multifamily 55+ category, present sales increased three points to 44, six months anticipated sales rose sharply 10 points to 49 and traffic of prospective buyers rose eight points to 41.

MHProNews has learned all four indices regarding 55+ multifamily rentals dropped in the second quarter. Present production plummeted 12 points to 46, anticipated future production fell 3 points to 49, current demand for existing units dropped 9 points to 59 and future demand slipped one point to 63.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, Overall, builders in the 55+ housing sector remain positive about the market,. However, many builders are being cautious as lot availability and skilled labor shortages remain a challenge in some parts of the country.##

(Photo credit: howstuffworks–baby boomers)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Market for Single-family 55+ Building Remains Strong

May 1st, 2015 Comments off

senior smiling   masterfile creditThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells MHProNews that builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market remains strong in Q1 2015 despite the index edging down one point to 58 from the previous quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter the Housing Market Index (HMI) has been above 50. Any number above 50 indicates builders feel positive towards this segment of the market.

Two of the three components of the 55+ single-family HMI marked increases from the fourth quarter of 2014: current sales rose one point to 64, expected sales for the coming six months increased three points to 67, while the flow of prospective buyers dropped eight points to 40.

Timothy McCarthy, chairman of NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council, said, “Builders in many parts of the country were affected by a particularly severe winter, but builders and developers in the 55+ sector continue to be positive as we move forward in 2015.” He says builders in the 55+ market remain bullish for the remainder of the year. ##

(Image credit: masterfile–smiling senior)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Single-family Home Builder Expectations Rise

July 16th, 2014 Comments off

MHProNews has learned the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose four points to 53 in July, indicating more single-family home builders than not have confidence in sales prospects. This survey, having been conducted by NAHB for 30 years, gauges builder perceptions of current prospects, current single-family home sales and expectations for the coming six months. MHProNews understands this jump marks the first time since January the HMI has been above 50. “An improving job market goes hand-in-hand with a rise in builder confidence,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As employment increases and those with jobs feel more secure about their own economic situation, they are more likely to feel comfortable about buying a home.” ##

(Photo credit: fotosearch.com)