Posts Tagged ‘GDP’

U.S Economic Update, GDP Quarter 2 Revisions, Manufactured Housing

September 5th, 2017 Comments off

Featured image credit, Pixabay.

The revised second quarter estimate from the Commerce Department shows that the U.S. economy is stronger than originally thought, per CNBC.

The boost has been in part due to stronger business investments, and more consumer spending.

Last month’s gross domestic product (GDP) was reported to be up 2.6 percent during the second quarter. Economists had predicted that the revised number would likely be slightly higher, at 2.7 percent.

GDP Revised

When the Commerce Department’s revised report was released Wednesday was an even bigger increase than expected – at 3.0 percent.

Businesses made a significant impact on the economy in the second quarter. Spending on equipment jumped 8.8 percent, up from 8.2 percent the month before.

Investments on nonresidential structures grew by 6.2 percent – an increase from the originally reported 4.9 percent rate.

Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, grew at a rate of 3.3 percent. Originally, in July this was reported at 2.8 percent. This increase is due to more spending on items like vehicles, cell phones, housing and utilities.


Image credit, CNBC.

Underlying domestic demand in the economy is consistent with near three percent growth but the supply-side of the economy is not capable of delivering such a pace of growth at this point,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

Reports indicate that consumer spending came in part out of savings. The savings rate dropped from 3.9 percent in the first quarter, to 3.7 percent in the second. 

Since consumers cannot continue to spend from savings forever, there are doubts as to whether increased consumer spending at this pace is sustainable.

So far, in the third quarter business spending and retail sales appear to have held steady.  Of course Hurricane Harvey will be factored in soon too.

As Daily Business News readers know, Hurricane Harvey will increase demand for manufactured housing, as was reported Texas and Louisiana last week.

The impact on the national economy will be minor,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “While some output will be lost in the wake of the storm, most of the difference will be made up in the months ahead.”

Damages from the storm are estimated to be upwards of $100 billion. Tens of thousands have been forced to leave their homes. Even with aid from FEMA, HUD, and regional manufactured home professionals, it’s going to be months-to-years before things start getting back to normal for survivors of Harvey.

Our point estimate remains for a small drag on growth in Q3: measured Q3 real GDP growth will be only slightly (~0.1ppt QoQ SAAR) lower due to Harvey,” Citi’s Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note Tuesday.

The output reduction could be greater if the disruption is longer lasting or if there are larger knock-on effects outside the region. For instance, stoppages at oil refineries could curtail activity further down the supply line.” ## (News.)

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JuliaGranowiczManufacturedHomeLivingNewsMHProNews-comSubmitted by Julia Granowicz to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.



First Quarter GDP Numbers Revised – The Verdict

May 30th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: Business Insider.

In another move from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the group has revised its estimate for the Q1 real gross domestic product (GDP).

According to HousingWire, the bureau revised its estimate higher, increasing it to an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017.

The original estimate from the BEA showed the GDP had increased 0.7 percent.


The BEA noted that while it revised its estimate, the general outlook for economic growth remained the same.

Increases in nonresidential fixed investment and in personal consumption expenditures were larger and the decrease in state and local government spending was smaller than previously estimated. These revisions were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment,” said the report.

The report also cited that U.S. economic growth slowed less sharply in the first quarter than initially thought, and that the weakness was likely an aberration amid a strong labor market that is near full employment.


Credits: HousingWire, BEA.

The sluggish first-quarter growth pace is, however, probably not a true reflection of the economy’s health,” said CNBC in commentary on the revision.

GDP for the first three months of the year tends to underperform because of difficulties with the calculation of data that the government has acknowledged and is working to resolve.”


The Trump Effect?

As the Daily Business News covered in a featured story recently, President Trump continues to make progress for American businesses and jobs, including the lowest unemployment rate in decades.

He enjoys the highest consumer, business confidence, and homebuilder confidence numbers in years.

Along with over $160 billion in ‘immediate’ federal and private business deals with Saudi Arabia, and some $300 billion more planned over the next decade, what ELS Chairman Sam Zell colorfully called a “cacophony” of Deep State resistance has moved into high gear. With a number of politicians, aided by a machine of media allies sets its sights on everything from dismantling his administration to outright calls for impeachment, President Trump continues to stand strong on his America First policies.

It’s SABOTAGE,” said President Trump in a White House press release to MHProNews.

The fake news media is working hand-in-hand with Washington’s corrupt bureaucracy to try to slow and block our America First Agenda.”

The special interests know they can only win when you, the American people, lose,” Trump continued. “But we’re fighting to break the special interest stranglehold around our country that has silenced our citizens, stripped our nation of its wealth, and bled America dry.”


The Manufactured Housing Industry Speaks

With President Trump’s election in November, many in the manufactured housing industry saw tremendous value in a pro business, pro growth administration stepping into place.

I don’t care whether you are a liberal, conservative, independent or something else – the bottom line with this year’s election was simply more of the same or something new, different or unique,” said Tim Connor, CSP.

With a personal background in business, rather than government, Mr. Trump – during the just-ended campaign – has been a consistent critic of innovation-stifling and job-killing overregulation and regulators who ignore or rationalize the far-reaching negative impacts of such regulations on the health of the economy, smaller businesses and consumers.” Said MHARR President & CEO Mark Weiss, JD.

For more on President Trump’s progress, and challenges, click here. ##


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RC Williams, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

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Economic Numbers Sizzle; Consumer Confidence Fizzles

August 15th, 2014 Comments off

question mark  housingwireA recent Gallup Poll reports that people are grim about the state of the economy, with an economic confidence of -17, which is the difference between those saying it is getting better and those who say it’s getting worse. Although it has improved substantially since the -39 reading in Nov. 2013, according to, most all economic indicators point to burgeoning data: The unemployment rate has fallen from 7.3 to 6.2; the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose four percent; income grew in 46 states in the first quarter, and faster than inflation; of almost 90 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting, 73 percent said earnings grew at an 8.4 percent this year based on revenue growth of 4.3 percent; the housing market continues to improve, albeit slowly; and the Commerce Department reports the first seven months of 2014 marked a 3.7 percent sales growth compared to 2013.

“There is no easy answer here. For now, there is a genuine paradox between multiple inputs showing clear and widespread improvement in economic life—including modest income growth—and clear and widespread conviction that there is not much improvement. The problem lies with economic data that essentially aggregates and averages a wide variety of experiences into a few synthetic numbers. We arrive at one composite number, with little regard for the wide and often extreme variations that these numbers mask. There is also the complicated issue of how much income growth goes to a very small percentage of the population,” as MHProNews understands it. The fact that millions are not optimistic about the economy cannot be ignored, but the hard core numbers indicate things are improving. ##

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Slowdown in Wage Growth may Slow Down Home Sales

January 31st, 2014 Comments off

Fitch Ratings reports while home prices continue to gradually climb nationwide, especially in the western U. S., it is due to low inventory resulting from slow construction rates of new homes. There are also many homes still mired in the foreclosure pipeline, according to “In markets with short supply, increased demand from institutional investors and individual borrowers returning to recovering markets has created the conditions for the sharp climb in prices,” said Stefan Hilts, a director at Fitch.

While gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent, the strongest in nearly a decade, the unemployment numbers are falling because people are withdrawing from the workforce. As has learned, the economic base has declined in many traditional employment sectors, with median wages remaining depressed. Median household income is eight percent lower than in 1999, in real terms, compared to the fourth quarter 2013. “With median wage levels stagnant, many potential buyers do not have the resources necessary to participate in the home ownership market,” says Hilts.

(Image credit: Forbes)

Home-building Spurring Gross Domestic Product

June 17th, 2013 Comments off

As of April 2013, home building employment totaled 2.1 million people, up nearly 100,000 in the last year, according to the labor department. Home building contributed 20 percent to the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last six quarters. Residential Fixed Investment (RFI), the home building component of the (GDP), measures spending on residential structures, including manufactured housing, single and multi-family homes, as well as remodeling and improvements that extend the life of the home. For the last six quarters RFI has averaged a 14 percent growth rate, as usnews has informed MHProNews. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports housing, defined as the combination of the monetary value of newly-built housing and sales of existing housing, has often accounted for 17-18 percent of the overall economy. The first quarter of 2013 saw that number at 15.18 percent.

(Photo credit: Liberty Homes–manufactured home)

Economists Expect Home Construction to Rise nearly 20%

April 16th, 2013 Comments off

MoneyMorning tells MHProNews residential construction is currently 2.44% of the gross domestic product (GDP), half of its historical norm, even with last year’s increases in new home construction. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, housing starts are expected to increase by roughly 20% this year, and over the next two years 1.2 million residential construction jobs will be created. New home-building also has a ripple effect on the economy as a whole—demand for appliances, paint, tile, draperies, furniture, concrete also rise. If home construction returns to adding five percent to the GDP, and related economic activity adds another 13%, the economy could get enough of a shot in the arm to spur the recovery and create jobs and a housing renaissance as well.

(Image credit: Fotosearch Clip Art)

Stock Watcher Predicts Economic Growth

March 19th, 2013 Comments off

Mitch Zacks of zacksinvestmentmanagement says one of the major factors driving the stock market as it hits new highs is the strength of the job market, which has witnessed the strongest period of job increases in over five years, and a concurrent drop in unemployment claims to a five-year low. Zacks attributes the employment numbers to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing—essentially printing money, and predicts a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of three percent this year, an upgrade from the 1.3 to 1.9 percent originally projected before the sequestration cuts. He says, “A fairly solid, full-steam ahead economy appears to be here.” MHProNews understands that jobs are a major factor in driving the overall housing economy. Zacks does caution that the Fed may ease the easing too soon, which could be harmful.

(Image credit: Fotosearch–Businessman with crystal ball)

Income, Spending Rise in Nov.

December 21st, 2012 Comments off

CNNMoney reports data for November, 2012 from the U.S. Commerce Dept. says personal income rose 0.6 percent during the month while spending increased 0.4 percent and the rate of savings moved up from 3.4 percent in Oct. to 3.6 percent in Nov. While Hurricane Sandy led to a drop in income and spending for Oct., the positive news in Nov. was better than economists expected. Consumer spending spearheaded the economy’s growth of 3.1 percent from July through Sept. As MHProNews knows, consumer spending contributes 70 percent of the Gross Domestic Production (GDP).

(Photo credit: Photobucket)

NAHB Cautiously Optimistic

October 18th, 2012 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), while noting their prediction of a 21% rise in single-family housing starts this year to 528,000 units, and next year to 665,000, says the uncertainty of how the Dodd-Frank Act plays out is preventing lenders from loosening credit, and further constraining the housing recovery. In addition, the unknown effects of the “fiscal cliff” of mandatory budget cuts and tax increases at the beginning of 2013 have put some investors on hold. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, forecasting optimism, says the GDP will grow two percent for the year and housing starts will total 1.1 for 2013. But he also notes hiring will not pick up until the “fiscal cliff” is resolved. And as MHProNews has learned, the economy will be stymied until hiring increases.

(Photo credit: Fotosearch)

Housing Crisis Tab: Nearly a Year’s GDP

September 11th, 2012 Comments off

HousingWire reports Ann Fulmer, with fraud analytics firm Interthinx, said the nation’s housing meltdown, with all the mortgage-backed securities litigation, bailouts, lost home equity, and lawsuits cost $13 trillion, almost as much as the $15 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011. Speaking at a Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) gathering, she noted, “We did not pay attention to data integrity on the way up, and so we have wiped out almost an entire year of gross domestic product in the United States.” She said in the future, loan originators or borrowers may try to fudge on loan applications, supporting documents, or manipulate numbers for the down payment amount. “If that becomes the standard then that becomes the problem area.” As MHProNews has learned, she added, “If you don’t get it right up front then you have a defective loan.”

(Image credit: HousingWire)