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New Manufactured Home Production, Shipment Data-February 2019

April 5th, 2019 Comments off

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Facts reflect reality. Businesses run on facts, not wishful thinking.  Companies thrive, lose value, or die based upon income, outgo, profits, losses, and their trend lines.

 

Starting 6 months ago, based upon tips from sources within the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), the Daily Business News on MHProNews began raising the alarm that the industry was about to face a downturn.

When MHI was asked about that concern, instead of acknowledging what sources insider their own organization were telling MHProNews, what did MHI officials do?  Duck the questions from MHProNews, and then they produced a video that claimed that the industry had ‘momentum.’  Seriously, that was their term, as the collage of stills from that MHI propaganda video below reflects.

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The more industry professionals and investors look at this now clearly outrageous set of claims by MHI make it appear that they were deceiving – or attempting to – many of their own members. 

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In hindsight, given that MHI has or could a good idea weeks before others do of what the shipment trends are, how can their claim be seen as anything other than a bold deception?

With that #NettlesomeThings tee up, let’s look at the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform’s latest report, below, and follow it with some related insights and analysis.

 

 

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Continues

Washington, D.C., April 5, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), year-over-year HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in February 2019. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,213 homes in February 2019, down 10.5%, from the 8,065 homes produced in February 2018. Cumulative industry production for 2019 now totals 14,769 homes, an 11.5% decline from the 16,701 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2018.

This production decline, which first emerged during the last quarter of 2018, reflects the cumulative impact of chronic problems affecting the industry’s post-production sector, which substantially and discriminatorily limit the market for HUD Code manufactured housing, thereby offsetting, to a significant degree, the inherent affordability advantage that manufactured homes have over other types of housing. Such negative effects – on both consumers of affordable housing and the industry as a whole – underscore the absolute and urgent necessity of effectively addressing such issues within the post-production sector, including, but not limited to, discriminatory zoning and placement restrictions (i.e., increasingly scarce new developments/communities and individual homeowner placement opportunities) and limitations on federal consumer financing support, and underscore the wisdom of the MHARR Board of Directors in targeting these matters for aggressive action.

 

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The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.

— 30 –

 

There is a new Masthead analysis on this troubling topic, see that as the first of the related reports, linked below.

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That’s this morning’s report on manufactured home industry “News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

Cui Bono? “Killing Me Softly,” Manufactured Housing’s New Theme Song?

 

 

 

 

 

Manufactured Housing Institute February 2019 Monthly Economic Report, with 2018 Revelations

February 19th, 2019 Comments off

 

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The data that follows is according to a February 11, 2019 report from the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) delivered by email to their members.

 

The Arlington, VA based trade group issued it with their normal copyright notice, but as their attorneys know, there are specific circumstances when copyrighted materials can lawfully be republished for analysis, commentary, fact-checks and/or other valid reasons and circumstances that apply for news media.  That’s why savvy readers know that CNN often shows news clips and logos from Fox News, or Fox News may show clips from MSNBC or CNN, etc.  There are reasons why there are no lawsuits pending between news outlets for that, and it is explored in more depth in the report linked in the text/image box below.

 

Lanham Act, Monopolistic Housing Institute, err, Manufactured Housing Institute, Legal Bullies, and You

 

The meat of the MHI release to their members is as shown below.

 

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5,984 New HUD Code Homes Shipped in December

———————————————————–

In December 2018, new manufactured home shipments decreased 17.7% to 5,984 homes as compared to the 7,269 homes shipped in December 2017. Total shipments for December 2018 were 1,706 homes less than November. Compared with December 2017, the trend is mixed with shipments of single-section homes down by 35.8% and multi-section homes up by 5.8%. Total shipments for the full year of 2018 are 96,540 which is a 3.9% increase over 2017. Total floors shipped in December 2018 decreased 10.5% to 9,398 compared to December 2017.

Of the 5,984 homes shipped in December, there were 56 homes designated as FEMA units shipped to Alabama. For calendar 2018, there were a total of 1,329 FEMA units shipped.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of shipments was 84,530 in December 2018, down 7.7% from the adjusted rate of 91,626 in November 2018. The SAAR corrects for normal seasonal variations and projects annual shipments based on the current monthly total.

In December, 133 plants representing 35 corporations reported production data which is one more plant than in November 2018.

— End of quoted portion of MHI release. —

 

Fact-Checks and Analysis

There are valid explanations why the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) have slight variations in their official new home shipment totals, both of which presumably come from Institute for Building Technology and Safety (IBTS) acting on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).  That difference could be summarized under how each handle “destination pending” designated homes in their respective reports.  It’s normally a negligible tally, but worthy of note solely for the clarity that it isn’t necessarily a factual misstatement.

As a point of reference, MHARR reported the following for 2017 and 2018 new home production totals.

  • 2017 – 92,902 homes
  • 2018 – 96,555 homes

 

So MHI shows 15 less units out of 96,555 total built in 2018, a tiny fraction of a percent. In fairness to MHI, with the proper disclosures, it’s a non-issue, save to those in MHVille who practice puffery on their blog.

Using MHARR’s data, there was only 3,653 difference between the total production of 2017 and 2018. Given that the National Association of Realtors  said in 2018 that some 8.3 million more housing units are needed in the U.S., the news of any drop or failure to meet even modest expectations ought to furrow brows of discerning manufactured housing professionals and investors.

The Daily Business News on MHProNews will break the above down, as follows.

  • For calendar 2018, there were a total of 1,329 FEMA units shipped.”
  • Total shipments for the full year of 2018 are 96,540 which is a 3.9% increase over 2017.”
  • Total floors shipped in December 2018 decreased 10.5% to 9,398 compared to December 2017.”

A) Absent from the above is the fact that earlier in the year, MHI and/or member firms were projecting 107,000 new manufactured homes produced for the year. The totals are thus more than 10,000 new manufactured home units short of that already meager MHI target.

B) Off that 3,653 units difference, 1329 were FEMA MHUs, which means that retail or residential use growth was actually only 2,324.

C) What is utterly lacking in this or other recent MHI communications is why – during an affordable housing crisis – there are declining new home shipment trends?

 

ThroughNov2018FREDHousingStartsfordecadesDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

D) What is equally lacking are explanations for what has contributed to this trend, that MHI has either ignored and/or arguably has facilitated. That has purportedly occurred with either the expressed or implied support of Knoxville, TN metro-based Clayton Homes and their related lending units.

 

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E) Finally, as MHI was beating-the-bushes for year-end renewals of their members, they spent significant sums on a video from which the stills below were compiled. They clearly stated – and thus wanted industry professionals to believe – that there was ‘momentum’ – when in fact they of all sources in MHVille knew what the trends were about to reveal. Is that a deceptive trade practice?  A lack of truth-in-advertising by MHI?  The decline of shipments year-over-year at the close of 2018 is an issue that can’t be ignored, save by those who believe that they benefit from ignoring the troubling facts.

 

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Momentum?  Really?  Still from MHI Video, logos added by MHProNews.

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This is arguably part of the “Illusion of Motion” that was described at this link here.

 

See the related reports for more details.  That follows the byline, consulting and business development offers, and notices. That’s this morning’s manufactured Home “Industry News Tips and Views Pros Can Use,” © where We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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To report a news tip, click the image above or send an email to iReportMHNewsTips@mhmsm.com – To help us spot your message in our volume of email, please put the words NEWS TIP in the subject line.

NOTICE: You can get our ‘read-hot’ industry-leading emailed headline news updates, at this link here. You can join the scores who follow us on Twitter at this link. Connect on LinkedIn here.

NOTICE 2: Readers have periodically reported that they are getting a better experience when reading MHProNews on the Microsoft Edge, or Apple Safari browser than with Google’s Chrome browser. Chrome reportedly manipulates the content of a page more than the other two.

(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.

ManufacturedHomeIndustry#1HeadlineNewsMHProNews

To see a sample of our emailed news update, click here. To sign up for the factory-built home industry’s #1 headline news, click here or the graphic above.

2) To pro-vide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

3) Marketing, Web, Video, Consulting, Recruiting and Training Re-sources

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

Democrats, Republicans Agree – “Manufactured Homes Can Play a Vital Role in Easing” the Affordable Housing Shortage

Bonuses, Bonuses! Manufactured Housing Struggles During Affordable Housing Crisis, While Top MHI Staffers Get Bonuses

News Tip, Document – Is Clayton Homes Engaged in False Down Payments? Deceptive Trade Practices?

 

MHI CEO Dick Jennison’s Pledge – 500,000 New Manufactured Home Shipments

 

Positive, Uplifting Third-Party Reports Favor Modern Manufactured Housing, So What’s Going Wrong?

 

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Persists – Time For Action Not Excuses

 

“The Illusion of Motion Versus Real-World Challenges”