Posts Tagged ‘Doug Duncan’

Homebuyer Confidence – March Report

April 11th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: Fannie Mae.

Although overall consumer confidence rose in March, consumer confidence in home buying slipped almost four percentage points for the month.

According to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), confidence decreased 3.8 percentage points to 84.5, following a record high in February. The index showed that the share of people who reported that now is a good time to buy a home fell 10 percentage points, while the share reporting that now is a good time to sell increased by 9 percentage points.

The share of Americans who say that mortgage rates will go down over the next twelve months fell 5 percentage points, to a new survey low, and the share of those who think home prices will go up decreased by 1 percentage point this month.

Home purchase sentiment gave back some of the gains accumulated over the prior two months that sent the index to its survey high in February. Strong home price appreciation has turned into a double-edged sword for the housing market as it boosted the net share of consumers saying it’s a good time to sell to a record high, surpassing the plunging good time to buy indicator for the first time in the history of the survey,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist.


Credit: Fannie Mae.

In addition, the net share of consumers who expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year exceeded that experienced during the 2013 taper tantrum. However, the housing market could get some tailwinds from a seasonal rise in for-sale inventory, particularly as some sellers seek to lock in profits from recent rapid home price gains. The market could also get a boost from homebuyers who decide to jump into the market before rates rise further.”

The HPSI provides information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and expectations of housing market conditions.


Manufactured Housing Front and Center?

The Daily Business NewsMHProNews and MHLivingNews have covered the case for manufactured housing as a viable solution to hope for the American Dream of home ownership at a reasonable price extensively, including Bloomberg making a statement to the same effect.

The ability to significantly cut down on production time, provide a high quality product to federal standards, all at a lower price point serves as the ideal solution to inventory and housing challenges. The titans of business recognize the opportunity as well, as giants and independents alike are actually “doubling down” on the industry.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##


(Image credits are as shown above.)



RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews

Confidence in Housing and Job Markets Weaken in March

April 9th, 2016 Comments off

unhappy face  fotosearchConsumers growing pessimism about the economy is beginning to affect the housing market, reports nationalmortgagenews. In a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae, the GSE’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell 2.5 points from Feb. to 80.2 in March, the lowest reading in the past 18 months.

The survey revealed the share of consumers who stated their income was substantially higher than one year ago fell four percentage points to 11 percent.

Consumers feel less secure in their jobs than one year ago, MHProNews has learned. The survey indicated the number of respondents who said their confidence about not losing their job fell 7 percentage points to 68%.

The number of respondents who said now is a good time to buy a house slipped 2%; those who said now is a good time to sell a house dropped by 8 percentage points to negative 1%.

Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a news release, “The gap between the share of consumers who think the economy is on the wrong track and the share who think it is on the right track has widened, nearly matching its reading last August, when concerns regarding China and oil prices led to the biggest stock market plunge in years.” ##

(Photo credit: fotosearch–worried man)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Fannie Mae Survey Indicates Consumer Confidence Rising on Housing Market

March 8th, 2016 Comments off

apartment quest credit   apart for rentAccording to the National Housing Survey questions that Fannie Mae asks consumers each month, the GSEs Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose to 1.2 percent to 82.7 in Feb. over Jan., as nationalmortgagenews informs MHProNews.

Consumers who said their income was noticeably greater than 12 months ago increased three percentage points to 15.

Respondents who said now is a good time to purchase a home rose to 63 percent, while the number who said it is a good time to sell a house fell to seven percent.

Another positive note: the number of respondents who are not worried about losing their job increased to 87 percent.

Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said high home prices have been a deterrent to would-be home buyers, but added, “A slower pace of home price appreciation may provide some relief for potential homebuyers, especially first-time buyers who couldn’t reap the benefits of selling a home at high prices to buy another one.” ##

(Photo credit: apartmentquest)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Housing Sector Continues to Chug Along, although Consumer Confidence Lags

September 10th, 2015 Comments off

Fannie_Mae_home_purchase_sentiment__Sept_2015The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) in the last couple of months dropped to 80.8 from it record high set in June of 84.7, although it is up from a year ago and has stayed within a five-point range since one year ago. Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan believes the drop reflects people’s concerns over the direction of the economy, as yahoofinance tells MHProNews. “There’s something going on at the household level that’s reducing their confidence,” he noted.

The HPSI is based on a survey of 1,000 respondents conducted monthly for nearly five years asking people questions regarding the buying and selling of a home, the direction of home prices and mortgage rates, personal job prospects and household income.

The August survey revealed 32 percent believed the economy is headed in the right direction compared to 39 percent in June. Those who said it was going the wrong way increased from 51 percent in June to 58 percent in August.

Duncan remains positive, however, on the housing sector, saying, “We’re still on that slow and steady improvement track. We’ve done a lot of demographic work that suggests a normal level of housing construction – multifamily, single-family, and manufactured housing – in a given year would be about 1.5 million units. This year, it looks like we’ll do about 1.1 million units. So on the supply side, we’re still well short of what demographics would suggest.” ##

(Graphic credit: yahoofinance/Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Americans’ Optimism Grows about Housing Market

January 8th, 2014 Comments off

A monthly housing survey indicates half of the respondents are optimistic about obtaining credit for a mortgage, an increase over the 45 percent who felt that way one year ago, despite the recent rise in mortgage rates. This survey from December marks the highest sentiment of respondents since Fannie Mae began tracking consumers’ attitudes three years ago. Respondents who think it is a better time to sell their house and to buy a house both rose in the survey, MHProNews has learned from Says Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, “The marked improvement in housing market sentiment over the course of 2013 bore out our view going into the year that the housing recovery was on a firm footing. These consumer attitudes should support a continued but measured housing recovery as we move through 2014.”

(Photo credit:  Greg Vote/Getty Images–two-story  manufactured home for sale)

Economic Housing Activity Stymied by Shutdown

October 18th, 2013 Comments off

Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, says the recent turmoil in the nation’s capital may impact consumer confidence but he does not anticipate it will have a lasting impact on the housing recovery. While Duncan sees consumer spending as being more modest in the third quarter, he says interest rates will average 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, according to housingwire, and five percent a year from now. Despite rising mortgage rates, existing home sales rose to their highest level in six months, and builder confidence, while not great, is good. MHProNews understands the mortgage market took a soft blow during the government shutdown. With limited staff, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) continued processing loans and delegated lenders continued to endorse new loans, resulting in less of a backup now that the shutdown is over. However, investors may be gun shy because of economic uncertainty and slowing economic activity; plus, full year economic growth expectations will come in lower than originally anticipated.

(Image credit: housingwire)

Survey Says: Housing Market Perception Improves

June 10th, 2013 Comments off

HousingWire reports a survey by Fannie Mae reveals ten percent more respondents in May than the previous month said it is a good time to sell a house, while five percent more said it is a better time to buy. Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, noting those who say it’s a good time to sell marked the highest increase in the survey’s three-year history, says, “This jump may foreshadow a gradual return to more normal levels of housing supply from their lows of recent months. In turn, increased housing supply could serve to temper increasing consumer home price expectations.” Forty-six percent say mortgage rates will rise, while 48 percent say rental rates will increase in the next six months. Meanwhile, as MHProNews has learned, 50 percent think it would be difficult for them to obtain a mortgage.

(Image credit: HousingWire)

Survey Says Good Time to Buy

November 15th, 2012 Comments off

According to the Fannie Mae October National Housing Survey of 1,000 Americans, 50 percent expect home rental costs to increase, providing more incentive to buy a home. RealtorMag tells MHProNews the survey revealed 72 percent of respondents say now is a good time to purchase a home, while only 18 percent note it is a good time to sell. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, states, “Increasing household formation, encouraged by an improving labor market, is adding additional momentum to the housing recovery and putting upward pressure on rental price expectations. Expected increases in both owning and renting costs may encourage more consumers to buy and add further strength to the housing recovery already under way.”

(Image credit: firstbanktrust)

Fed Housing Involvement Will Remain

October 18th, 2012 Comments off

Despite calls by analysts and policy makers following the recent crash to get the government out of the housing business, Kerri Ann Panchuk of HousingWire says the GSEs still account for 85-95% of the outstanding mortgage loans, securitized and unsecuritized. Plus there is a myriad of programs to help homebuyers—Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP), federal block grants, other refinance programs, etc.–that are in direct contrast to The Treasury saying it wanted a mortgage finance system supported by more private capital. Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, says private capital does not see clarity in the new system, and that uncertainty will keep investors away. As MHProNews has learned, government will remain involved for the foreseeable future.

(Image credit: Federal Housing Administration)

Fannie Mae Says Consumer Sentiment Stabilizing

December 7th, 2011 Comments off

Fannie Mae LogoIncidental improvement in the housing market is being noticed as consumer sentiment stabilizes, according to a new survey from Fannie Mae. The group’s November National Housing Survey revealed home price expectations moved from negative to positive territory for the first time in six months, with respondents expecting home prices to increase by 0.2 percent over the next year. This places consumer sentiment in line with Fannie Mae’s Economics & Mortgage Market Group’s November forecast of temporary economic improvement during the third and fourth quarters of 2011, leading into a slower economic growth path in 2012. “Though their home price expectations have become slightly positive, consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy and continue to view their household finances as being relatively flat,” says Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Most Americans expect no improvement in their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and will likely remain wary about undertaking the significant financial obligation associated with homeownership until their view of their income, expenses, and job security heads in a more positive direction.” The survey also reveals thirty-two percent of Americans now say they would rent their next home, while 63 percent say they would buy, down 3 percentage points since last month and a return to the level seen in September.