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Declining Manufactured Home Shipments More Serious Than Retailers, Communities Being Told

May 6th, 2019 Comments off

 

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The new data for March 2019 is in. This May 2019 HUD Code production data update is arguably more serious than any other bloggers or trade media in manufactured housing dare publish.

 

This Daily Business News on MHProNews report will reflect the latest toplines. But it will also shed light on how this 7 month trend arguably more serious than alternative theories promoted by numerous ‘association mush’ sycophants that are emanating from several corners of MHVille.

Let’s bullet some of the reasons why this new data further below is arguably worse than what many are saying.

 

  • First and foremost, there is an affordable housing crisis. FEMA, inventory adjustments, and other excuses that Joe Stegmayer, Kevin Clayton or others who regurgitate their words without analysis have shared are arguably just that, excuses.  Stegmayer contradicts himself on that very point, as the link above reflects, because encountering declining new manufactured home shipments during a growing affordable housing crisis is arguably a klaxon that should signal ‘all hands-on deck’ to get to the root issues.
  • Thousands of manufactured homes that are going into manufactured home communities are rental units. As MHProNews exclusively reported, taken in aggregate, there are producers – both MHI, MHARR members or non-aligned producers of HUD Code manufactured homes – that have told the Daily Business News on MHProNews the following for years.  If rentals going into manufactured home land-lease communities were factored out, the true level of new home sales has been largely flat or are declining in numbers of states.
  • Given the arguably growing number of negative reports in the media that can be traced back to the influence of Warren Buffett dark-money recipient non-profits, such as Manufactured Housing Action (or MHAction) is an issue that MHProNews alone has raised publicly.
  • Bad news stories coming out of Iowa, California, Colorado, New York or other states are routinely connected to MHI “big boy” community or other members.

Let’s be clear.  There are retailers, communities, and producers who can sincerely report improving results in new home sales. But that doesn’t change the fact that the overall trends are down.

What follows are details from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), released earlier today.  It should be noted that MHARR makes their reports, used as is with proper credits, available for others to publish. Which begs the question. Why does MHInsider, George F. Allen, MHR, or others fail to publish these kinds of reports?

More after their report, which follows.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                            Contact: MHARR

(202) 783-4087

 

HUD CODE PRODUCTION DECLINE CONTINUES

 

Washington, D.C., May 6, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), year-over-year HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in March 2019. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,590 homes in March 2019, down 14% from the 8,830 homes produced in March 2018. Cumulative industry production for 2019 now totals 22,359 homes, a decline of 12.4% from the 25,531 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2018.

This ongoing significant production decline, following a long period of only modest industry growth after its modern-era production low in 2009, underscores the importance and validity of the decision by the MHARR Board of Directors to begin aggressively tackling (by mid-May) three major issues – zoning exclusion, placement discrimination, and the failure of the Government Sponsored Enterprises, to date, to provide market-significant securitization and secondary market support for manufactured home personal property loans. These three major issues, individually and in combination, have worked to inhibit and stifle the growth of the manufactured housing market after the industry’s outstanding homes leave the factory, and deny millions of Americans the affordable, non-subsidized homeownership that manufactured housing can uniquely provide.

ManufacturedHousingAssocRegulatoryReformMHARRTop10ShipmentStatesManufacturedHomesMarch2019v2018BTW, the video posted below is the source for the feature image above. It is a reminder of what several publicly traded companies investor reports reflect. Namely, that they are a source of about 1/3 of all new HUD Code manufactured home orders.  In the case of many land-lease communities, those properties are often buying rental housing to fill vacant sites, instead of filling vacant sites with sold or spec-for-sale manufactured homes.

 

 

 

It will also be recalled that some weeks ago, the Wisconsin Housing Alliance (WHA) Executive Director Amy Bliss told MHR that she was worried about a possible downturn.  But that was in the wake of MHI – who Bliss is arguably a routine surrogate for – was touting “momentum” in the MHI self-promotion video.  Given that MHI could or should have advance data on these trends, one can argue that MHI deliberately misled their own members.  To ‘soften’ what the powers-that-be knew was coming, did Bliss float her comments? 

 

 

MHI’s outside attorney had the chutzpah to threaten MHProNews for reporting the following using their own graphics and stills. 

 

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Warren Buffett was right about good journalists asking the questions others have not. Why aren’t others in the industry asking these questions? Why is MHI telling exaggerations at best, arguably demonstrable falsehoods at worse, to their own members and the industry at large?

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MHI’s own member companies make the point, in their own words, that the industry is preforming under its historic norms.

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Others are peddling spin, propaganda, deception, lies – whatever one may want to call it. Perhaps that’s why MHProNews traffic has roughly doubled in about a year

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HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Persists – Time For Action Not Excuses