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Manufactured Home Production Decline Accelerates in November 2018

January 3rd, 2019 Comments off

 

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The Daily Business News will save its comments for after the new releases below from MHARR on MHProNews.

 

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                   Contact: MHARR                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (202) 783-4087

 

PRODUCTION DECLINE CONTINUES IN NOVEMBER 2018

 

Washington, D.C., January 3, 2019 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured home production declined once again in November 2018. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,670 homes in November 2018, a 10.8% decline from the 8,602 new HUD Code homes produced during November 2017. On a cumulative basis, industry production for 2018 now totals 90,612 homes,[1] still a 5.8% increase over the 85,657 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2017.

A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from the beginning of the industry production rebound in August 2011 through November 2018  — with cumulative, monthly, current year (2018) and prior year (2017) shipments per category as indicated — are:

MHARRLogoManufacturedHousingAssociationForRegulatoryReformLogoNov2018ProductionShipmentDataMHProNews

 

The latest information for November 2018, does not result in any changes to the cumulative top-ten list.

Although industry production as reported for November 2017 may have been skewed somewhat higher due to the production of disaster response homes for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (insofar as the HUD production reports do not differentiate between FEMA production and shipments and units produced for the general consumer market), the fact remains that production levels remain disappointingly low for a HUD Code industry that should be booming based on the strength of the broader economy, including both job and wage growth, versus the increasing cost of other types of housing. In part, as MHARR will soon address in greater detail, the industry’s difficulty in once again reaching – and substantially exceeding – the 100,000 home-per-year benchmark, is, to a substantial degree, a product of continuing problems affecting the industry’s post-production sector, including, principally, exclusionary zoning affecting communities, related placement issues, and most importantly, the continuing unequal secondary market treatment of the nearly 80 percent of manufactured homebuyers who rely on chattel loans to finance the purchase of their home. Significantly, though, it appears that the post-production sector could be on its way to more effectively addressing these and other issues through independent representation at the national level.  More on this development will be forthcoming soon.

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a
Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the
views and interests of independent producers of
federally-regulated manufactured housing. 

[1] Correcting and updated for a transposition error earlier in 2018.

— 30 —

 

The Daily Business News on MHProNews has been sounding the alarm for months that this was coming.  This pro-industry trade publication has also been cautioning for years that certain states and markets have been going backwards.  All of these are warning signs.  All of this directly refutes certain problematic claims by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI).

MHProNews will do its own fuller analysis on this issue in the next 2 days.  Watch for it.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News , analysis, and commentary.)

 

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New Home Sales Rise in August

September 26th, 2013 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports August sales of new, single-family homes rose 7.9 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 421,000 units, offsetting a slight decline in July resulting from a rise in mortgage rates. Says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “We are only about halfway back to what would be considered a sustainable level of activity in a normal economy, and the ongoing housing recovery continues to be slowed by consumers’ concerns about interest rates, as well as weak job growth and uncertainty about what’s happening in Washington.” As MHProNews has learned, regionally new home sales in the South increased 15.3 percent, 19.6 percent in the Midwest, and 8.8 percent in the Northeast. Only the West experienced a decline, falling 14.6 percent.

(Photo credit: Reuters–new home sold)

Report says Housing Market may Return to Sluggishness

July 2nd, 2013 Comments off

As housing inventory expands, Redfin says the housing market is undergoing a slight slowdown, based on data from 22 markets across the nation that ranks the percentage of homes that go under contract within two weeks of their listing. HousingWire reports 32 percent of homes went under contract within 14 days of their entering the market in May, a drop of 1.2 points from April and the biggest decline since Dec. 2012. MHProNews has learned a rise in inventory may have contributed to the drop, as housing stock for sale grew 6.4 percent from March to April, 2013, and 4.2 percent from April to May. Additionally, the recent rise in interest rates may contribute to a further slowdown.

(Image credit: viewpoint.ca)

Fannie Mae: Manufactured Housing has Challenges to Overcome

June 27th, 2013 Comments off

In its latest Housing Insights report, Fannie Mae notes that while overall home construction fell by 70 percent between 2006 and 2011, manufactured housing (MH) began declining in 1998, falling nearly 90 percent. In 2012 MH accounted for 7.4 percent of total home construction, a substantial drop from 20.2 percent in 1998. The report says, “Given manufactured housing’s modest share of the total housing stock, the decline in manufactured home production might not seem important. However, manufactured homes account for an outsized share of low-cost housing, particularly among owner-occupants. Whereas manufactured homes account for approximately 7 percent of all owner-occupied homes, they represent 16 percent of owner-occupied units with monthly housing costs of less than $500.” As inman.com informs MHProNews, the average price per square foot for a manufactured home in 2012 was $42, less than half the square foot cost of a new site-built, single-family home. The report cites several barriers the industry must overcome, including limited conventional financing options due to titling of most manufactured homes as personal property, an underdeveloped secondary market for manufactured home loans, and pending financial regulations that could further curtail manufactured home lending.

(Photo credit: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters–Fannie Mae headquarters)

S&P Home Price Index keeps Climbing

May 1st, 2013 Comments off

CNNMoney informs MHProNews the S&P Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major markets rose 9.3 percent in Feb. over the last 12 months, an increase from January’s 8.1 percent rise, and the biggest gain in home prices since May 2006. Over a five-year period through May 2012, the index showed a decline almost every month, but since then the index has risen each month. Home price increases allow more people to refinance, which helps the underwater borrower. In addition, lower house payments allow borrowers to spend money on other items, which buoys the overall economy. However, analysts note even with the increase over the last 12 months, the index remains 28 percent below the index peak of 2006.

(Image credit: HousingWire)

Abandoned Homes Continuing to Hold Back the Market?

April 24th, 2013 Comments off

According to nationalmortgagenews, banks are the ones walking away from vacant homes these days, starting but not completing the foreclosure process because they do not want the responsibility for maintaining the property, resulting in hundreds of thousands of homes being withheld from the market. In some cases, homeowners who have already left the property are being hit with back taxes, repairs, insurance and unpaid debt. Thomas Fitzpatrick, an economist in the community development department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, states “We’re seeing more and more, banks getting a judgment to sell a home but not taking it to a foreclosure sale. It may cost more to cure the back taxes and bring the property up to code than they could ever get from selling the property itself.” Data from RealtyTrac indicates 35 percent of the roughly one million homes in the foreclosure pipeline are abandoned and the servicer has not taken title to the property. Last year the Federal Reserve issued directives requiring servicers to notify borrowers and municipalities when they decide not to pursue foreclosure, but no time line was given and enforcement can be difficult. MHProNews has learned this may be contributing to the increase in prices on existing homes. Says Ruhi Maker, a senior staff attorney at the nonprofit Empire Justice Center in Rochester, N.Y. “I have long been convinced that the current run up in home prices is a false high. Once all these foreclosures are through the system we could see another decline in prices.”

(Image credit: condometropolis)

Multifamily Starts Still Strong

April 16th, 2013 Comments off

MHProNews has learned from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) figures released by HUD and the Census Bureau indicate total housing starts—single-family and multifamily– rose by seven percent in March, propelled by a 31.1 percent increase in new multifamily construction. As we have reported several times earlier, the rental market is currently very strong and growing. Meanwhile, single-family construction fell 4.8 percent from the previous month, and permit issuance dropped 3.9 percent. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, calling it a mixed bag because of the opposite directions of the two markets, says, “The three-month moving average for single-family starts remained unchanged at 628,000 units in March – which is right on pace with NAHB’s forecast for a 25 percent gain in new-home production in 2013.” Regionally, the Midwest, South and the West all gained in single and multifamily housing starts, while the Northeast region fell. Conversely, the Northeast posted a gain in issuance activity, while the other three regions experienced a decline.

(Photo credit: bloombergbusinessweek)

Modular Shipments Rise

March 8th, 2013 Comments off

MHProNews has learned from the National Modular Housing Council (NMHC) shipments for Q4 2012 rose 4.3 percent from Q4 2011 to 3,206 homes. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, state shipment totals show 11 states had increases of shipments, 12 states indicated a decline, and 11 states experienced insignificant change. By contrast, manufactured housing shipments totaled 3,513 in Dec. 2012, as we reported here Feb. 5, 2013.

(Photo credit: M Space)

Pre-fab to Rise 15%, but not MH

February 28th, 2013 Comments off

RnRMarketResearch reports demand for prefabricated housing will expand 15 percent annually through 2017, but manufactured housing’s share of that will fall as conventional mortgages become easier to obtain. The study, based on data from 2002, 2007, and 2012, is combined with current market conditions, industry structure and competition in its analysis of the manufactured, modular, precut and panelized home building industries. Demand for the other three will be similar to stick-built single-family homes. Manufactured housing saw a decline beginning in 1998 as the economy slowed and MH borrowers defaulted, leaving repossessed homes competing with new ones. Through 2005, easy credit led borrowers into site built homes, which in turn led to what became the housing bubble and the Great Recession. As MHProNews documented monthly last year, MH production increased throughout 2012 but fell off towards the end of the year.

(Image credit: Fotosearch)

Underwater Borrowers Beginning to Float?

January 30th, 2013 Comments off

CNNMoney says the S&P CaseShiller home price index (HPI) of 20 major metropolitan markets indicates prices in Nov. were up 5.5 percent over Nov. 2011, the largest monthly increase since Aug. 2006, before the housing balloon deflated. As MHProNews understands, rising prices means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages, which will allow them to refinance at a more favorable rate, thereby stimulating the economy. Only New York of the 20 posted a modest decline. Still, the HPI is 29 percent below the summer of 2006 home price peak.

(Image credit: texaslendingtoday)