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Posts Tagged ‘David Crowe’

Leading Housing Markets Index Nudges Higher

February 6th, 2014 Comments off

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), markets in 58 out of the approximately 350 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity, a net gain of two points over last month. Based on current permits, prices and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 87 percent of normal economic and housing activity, with 2000-2003 used as the last normal period for permits and prices, and 2007 for employment.

“Firming home prices are hastening the return of normal economic and housing activity in an increasing number of markets,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The healthiest markets continue to be centered in smaller metros that boast strong local economies, particularly in the oil and gas producing states of Texas, North Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming.” MHProNews.com understands that 85 percent of all metropolitan areas have indicated signs of improvement in the last year.

(Image credit: globest.com–housing recovery)

Multifamily Home Building on the Rise

February 5th, 2014 Comments off

Panelists during a press conference at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Las Vegas says strong demand for apartments will increase over the next several years. Says NAHB chief economist David Crowe, “The multifamily market has rebounded significantly from its trough in 2009 at 82,000 multifamily housing starts to 340,000 in 2013. NAHB is forecasting 363,000 multifamily housing starts in 2015, which is above the previous longer term average of 340,000 as more young adults prefer renting.” As MHProNews.com has been informed, he says the strong demand for multifamily is due to three factors: First, production is catching up to the normal flow which was hampered during the housing bubble; second, the rising demographic of the echo boomers, born after 1980, will continue to grow in size; and third, young adults who normally might have chosen homeownership are hindered by tight lending standards, a slow employment market and lower entry salaries. Crowe adds, “The share of households that rent rather than own has increased steadily since 2004 and will likely continue until jobs are more secure, mortgages more accessible and careers more stable.”

(Photo credit: bloombergbusinessweek.com–new multifamily building)

55+ Housing Market Makes Strong Headway

February 4th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports in their 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) that builder confidence has risen sharply for Q4 2013, compared to the same period last year, in all three segments—single family homes, condominiums, and multifamily rental. Based on a survey that asks builders if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and expected sales for the next six months are good, fair or poor, with 50 as the middle between good and poor, from a year ago all segments of the 55+ single-family HMI increased: present sales rose 26 points to 53, expected sales for the next six months rose 24 points to 62, and traffic of prospective buyers increased 9 points to 33.

In multifamily, the 55+ condo HMI increased 16 points to 35, the highest 4th quarter reading since the index began in 2008. Present sales spiked 20 points to 37, anticipated sales for the coming six months rose 15 points to 40, and traffic of prospects increased nine points to 30. MHProNews.com follows this index monthly, and understands these numbers are significantly higher than most all of the reports.

The 55+ rental indexes also notched strong gains in the third quarter. Present production increased 12 points to 43, expected future production rose 12 points to 46, current demand for existing units increased 16 points to 54 and future demand increased 16 points to 55. Says NAHB’s David Crowe: “The 55+ segment of the housing market contains more discretionary purchases so as expected it has taken longer for that segment to join the housing recovery.”

(Image credit: National Association of Home Builders)

New Home Sales Fall in December but Rise on the Year

January 28th, 2014 Comments off

Despite sales of newly-built, single-family homes falling seven percent in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 414,000, home sales in 2013 rose 16.4 percent over the previous year, reports the National Home Builders Association (NAHB). “Consumers are getting used to more realistic mortgage rates, which still remain favorable on a historical basis,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “As household formations and pent-up demand continue to emerge, we anticipate that 2014 will be a strong year for housing.” Regionally, while the Midwest realized a new home sales gain of 17.6 percent, activity fell 36.4 percent in the Northeast, 8.8 percent in the West, and 7.3 percent in the South. MHProNews has learned the inventory of new homes dropped to a five month supply, 171,000 at the current sales pace.

(Photo credit: Paul J. Richards/Getty Images)

Overall Housing Production Drops in December

January 17th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports housing production fell 9.8 percent in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 999,000 units following a gain in housing starts in November. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Census Bureau say single-family housing starts fell 7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units in Dec. Except for November, this was the highest monthly total for single-family starts in 2013, as single-family starts dropped seven percent in Dec. to an SAAR of 667,000 units. Multifamily starts fell 17.9 percent to 312,000 units in Dec., as MHProNews has learned. While overall permit issuance fell 3 percent to 986,000 units, of that number, single-family permits comprised 610,000, a 4.8 percent drop from the previous month.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Housing Market Index Falls One Point, but Still Above 50

January 16th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reports builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell one point to 56 in January. Rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates and significant pent-up demand will drive a continuing, gradual recovery in the year ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, the pace of the recovery could be stronger were it not for rising construction costs and inaccurate appraisals that are keeping some home sales from going through.” MHProNews has learned the HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family homes, sales expectations over the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers. Regionally, the West rose four points to 63, the Northeast increased four points also, to 42, while the South remained steady at 56 and the Midwest dropped one to 58.

(Image credit: National Association of Home Builders)

Housing Market Gradually Picks up Steam

January 8th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI), which recently replace NAHB’s improving market index (IMI), indicates markets in 56 of the 350 major metro markets returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic activity, indicating a net gain of two over the previous month. Based on current permits, prices and employment data, LMI data for December indicates the nationwide market is operating at 86 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “Forty-five percent of metro areas are recovering at a faster pace than the nation as a whole, with smaller markets leading the way. Of the 56 markets that are at or above normal levels, 48 of them have populations that are less than 500,000, and many of these local metros are fueled by a strong energy sector, which is producing solid job and economic growth.”

MHProNews has learned Baton Rouge, Louisiana is the top large metro area with an LMI of 1.42—42 percent above its last normal market level, followed by Honolulu, Oklahoma City, Austin and Houston, Texas, and Harrisburg and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report, adds, “More than 35 percent of all the markets on this month’s LMI are operating at a capacity of 90 percent or better of previous norms, which is a good sign that the housing recovery will continue to pick up steam in 2014.”

(Photo credit: Ryan Garza/flintjournal.com)

New Home Sales Slide in November

December 24th, 2013 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports sales of newly-built single-family homes fell 2.1 percent in November to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 464,000 units. According to data released by the U S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), this follows an upwardly revised strong rate the previous month of 474,000 units, which marked the strongest sales pace since July 2008. “The previous three months for new-home sales have all been revised up, and the final quarter of 2013 is shaping up to be the best quarter since the second quarter of 2008,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Historically low interest rates, affordable home prices and a healing economy are bringing buyers back into the marketplace.” Regionally, new home sales for the West increased 31.1 percent and the Northeast gained 15.1 percent, while the South dropped 9.1 percent and the Midwest fell 26.6 percent. As MHProNews has learned the inventory of new homes on the market fell to 167,000 units in Nov., which is amounts to a 4.3 month supply at the current sales pace.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Home Builders Confidence Continues Rising

December 17th, 2013 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders reports builder confidence rose four points in Dec. to 58, where any number over 50 indicates builders see the market as good rather than poor. The Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on current sales conditions, sales expectations and traffic of prospective buyers for newly-built, single-family homes. NAHB Chairman Rick Judson says, “The HMI is up 11 points since Dec. of 2012 and has been above fifty for the past seven months.” NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe adds, “Following a two-month pause in the index, this uptick is due in part to release of the pent-up demand caused by the uncertainty generated by the October government shutdown. We continue to look for a gradual improvement in the housing recovery in the year ahead.” As MHProNews has learned, regionally, the South added one point, while the Northeast, the Midwest and the West each lost a point.

(Photo credit: housingwire.com)

Multifamily Building Rises as Vacancy Falls

November 25th, 2013 Comments off

The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) hit 54 in the third quarter, seven points less than the second quarter but the seventh consecutive rating above 50. The MPI measures construction of low-rent units, market-rate rental units and condominiums, where a number above 50 indicates builders consider market conditions good rather than poor. MHProNews has learned NAHB’s vacancy index continues to indicate fewer vacancies. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe says, “The multifamily industry has recovered significantly from its trough in 2009 and is getting close to reaching equilibrium. NAHB’s forecast calls for continued improvement through 2015, but at a decreasing rate.”

(Photo credit: apartmentquest)