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Warning – Number 1 Manufactured Housing State, Texas – Reports Month Over Month Rise, Year over Year Shipment Decline Continues

May 2nd, 2019 Comments off

 

WarningNumber1ManufacturedHousingStateTexasReportsMonthOverMonthRiseYearOverYearShipmentDeclineContinuesMHProNews

Last night, the Daily Business News on MHProNews looked at regional data that revealed 3 states with increases, but 3 others with significant declines in new manufactured homes shipped.

 

 

Now, in our pre-dawn report, multiple tips from members of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) provided their state’s latest – sobering – shipment data.

Quoting the TMHA, following the graphic below.

 

AnnualShipmentTotalsTXMHAManufacturedHousingShipmentsFebMarch2019vs2018MHProNews

 

MARCH

Manufactured home shipments for March moved up 4.9% over February. The month-over-month growth was aided by an additional work day and stemmed from a 10.5% increase in multi-section shipments which once again beat single-section shipments for the fourth month in a row. Single-section shipments slipped -0.7% from February.

We’re now past the point where the year-over-year comparisons for a single month should be substantially impacted by FEMA units and March saw a marked -26.8% slowdown in comparison to March of 2018, which was last year’s peak month.

Multi-sections shipments were down -9.8% and single-sections were down -39.5%.

While shipments were soft this month, the early data indicates that retailer sales expanded in February and titles issued thus far for March sales also indicate strong year-over-year growth for that month. We’ll be watching the titling data as it comes in, but It appears likely that last year’s backlog constraints led retailers to over order and build up a stock of homes in inventory that they are now selling from. If the year-over-year elevated sales continue, then shipments should pick up later in the year as those inventories decline.”

 

March2019ShipmentTotalsTXMHAManufacturedHousingShipmentsFebMarch2019vs2018MHProNews

 

Certainly, TMHA has significant influence from Clayton Homes, Berkshire Hathaway brand lenders, and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). Their staff arguably has the same “How Gold Rules” pressures that other state association executives have previously reported, see that, in the report linked from the text-image box that follows.

 

 

But the independent minded thinkers in MHVille need look no further than what MHI member companies that are publicly traded have said in their investor packets.

 

ManufacturedHousingIndustryShipmentsFEMAManufacturedHomesNotMobileHomesTrailersIndustryResearchReportsDataMHProNews

Credits, MHI, Cavco.

 

Skyline Champion (SKY) have said similarly.

 

3ErasMobileHomesManufacturedHomesManufacturedHousingImprovementActEraSkylineChampionShipmentProductionGraphicMHProNews

In 1998, manufactured homes (MH) outsold RVs by some 3 to 2. In 2017, RVs outsold MHs by some 5 to 1. RVs recovered far more quickly from 2008. The facts raise questions. One, is the effectiveness of MHI as the post-production or ‘umbrella’ association in the country. The other question is more sobering. Has Buffett-Berkshire “Moat” strategies kept manufactured home production at historically low levels to allow a few big boy brands to consolidate others at a discounted ‘value’ by MHI insiders?

 

There are clearly investor concerns at play, because both Skyline and Cavco are trading below where they were about 6 months ago. See those related reports, below.

Facts matter.  During an affordable housing crisis, there certainly could be some variation, but the rise in shipments could be much stronger than it has been.  See the related reports to better understand the various forces at play that arguably are artificially limiting manufactured housing – often from within.

 

Multibillion Dollar Opportunities Knock in Solving Affordable Housing Crisis

 

That’s this morning’s pre-dawn episode of “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

 

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Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

“Lead, Follow … Or Get Out of The Way”

MHARR Calls on HUD Secretary to End Discriminatory And Exclusionary Zoning of HUD-Regulated Manufactured Homes

Skyline Champion (SKY) Hedge Fund Dumps Shares, Value Declines

New Investigation, Insider Trades, Hedge Fund Dumps Cavco Industries (CVCO)

Prosperity Now, Nonprofits Sustain John Oliver’s “Mobile Homes” Video in Their Reports

 

 

 

 

 

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Continues Growth, December Report

February 6th, 2017 Comments off
mharr-hud-manufacturedhousingmonthlyproductionreport-manufacturedhousingindustryshipmentsdailybusinessnewsmhpronews

Credits: MHARR, HUD.

Washington, D.C., February 6, 2017 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) tells MHProNews that, per official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), year-over-year manufactured housing industry production increased substantially again during December 2016.

These just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 6,995 homes in December 2016, a 23.6 percent increase over the 5,657 HUD Code homes produced during December 2015.

Cumulative industry production for 2016 was 81,136 homes, a 15 percent increase over the 70,544 HUD Code homes produced during 2015.

MHARR has provided cumulative annual industry production figures since 2008 for reference:

  • 2008 – 81,457 homes
  • 2009 – 49,683 homes
  • 2010 – 50,056 homes
  • 2011 – 51,618 homes
  • 2012 – 54,881 homes
  • 2013 – 60,228 homes
  • 2014 – 64,334 homes
  • 2015 – 70,544 homes
  • 2016 – 81,136 homes

MHARR’s analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from the beginning of the industry production rebound in August 2011 through December 2016 — with cumulative, monthly, current year (2016) and prior year (2015) shipments per category as indicated, are as follows:

HUDCodeManufacturedHomeProductionContinuesGrowthDecemberReportcreditMHARR-postedtothedailybusinessnewsmhpronewsmhlivingnews

The latest information for December 2016 results in no changes to the cumulative top ten list.

MHARR says that while continued growth in manufactured housing production levels since 2010 is encouraging, given the high and growing demand in the United States for affordable housing and home ownership and other factors, annual production levels should be in the hundreds of thousands of homes.

The full report is linked here.

For the MHProNews preview of the HUD housing numbers, click here.

The Daily Business News also recently covered MHARR’s statement that President Donald Trump’s regulatory orders will have a direct impact on manufactured housing. That report is here. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)

rcwilliams-writer75x75manufacturedhousingindustrymhpronews

RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.