Posts Tagged ‘confidence’

Millionaires Survey IDs Top Threats to Their Wealth

December 18th, 2018 Comments off



Sum it up in a word, uncertainty. But the details are insightful.


There are about 3.3 (+/-) percent of the population, or nearly 11 million Americans who are millionaires, per Spectrum n 2018.




In a new survey conducted for CNBC, there are nearly 11 million millionaires, Robert Frank says that the biggest threat in the view of that millionaire class is the federal government’s dysfunction.

Here are their bullets:

  • When asked about the biggest threat to their personal wealth, the largest number of millionaires said government dysfunction (37 percent), followed by the stock market (32 percent).
  • Overall, their views remain highly political, with 41 percent of Republican millionaires predicting the economy will be better in 2019, compared with only 8 percent of Democratic millionaires.

Frank says that most are generally bullish about the economy itself, which is a data-point that other groups that measure the economy and sentiment have also concurred upon.  Here in the linked report in the box below is one example.


Blue Collar Worker Attitude, Outlook, Finances – Latest Data, Express-Harris Survey


Another example of that similar sentiment is below, which can likewise be accessed by clicking on the linked textbox.


Latest Consumer Confidence Report and Housing Demand


The NFIB in the fall had similarly overall positive reports too about the economy.  But will the now divided Congress change that rosy small business outlook?


NFIB’s Small Business Leadership Updates Stunning Data


Surveys questions can be framed in a variety of ways, which will naturally impact responses.  But as another recent CNBC report reflected, news – arguably some of it agenda driven news – is in part to blame for this ‘uncertainty.’  The economy itself, per several indicators, is sound.  JP Morgan Chase’s Jaime Dimon said last summer that for 20 years, U.S. tax policies have driven capital overseas.  Dimon is a Democrat.

JP Morgan’s CEO Jaime Dimon Sounds Off – “For 20 Years, We’ve Been…Driving Capital…Overseas,” plus MH Market Updates


Millionaires Survey Qualifiers and Other Findings

The qualifications to participate in this new CNBC survey of millionaires included an analysis of the investment attitudes and behaviors of 750 investors with $1 million or more of investable assets. “Respondents are required to be the financial decision-maker or share jointly in financial decision-making within the household,” said Frank.

Other findings:


  • The survey also highlights the fact that millionaire attitudes toward the economy and markets remain highly political, with 41 percent of Republican millionaires predicting the economy will be better in 2019, compared with only 8 percent of Democratic millionaires.
  • Fully 40 percent of millionaires surveyed say the economy will be just as strong in 2019 as it was in 2018, and 28 percent say it will be even better. Yet government dysfunction remains the greatest concern for investors regarding the economy (38 percent) and also to their own personal wealth (37 percent). Thirty-two percent believe the stock market has increased as a threat compared to the past, and worries over the national debt and immigration have increased.
  • While more than half of millionaire investors anticipate that the S&P 500 will be up more than 5 percent in 2019, 20 percent believe it will be flat.
  • When asked about their own returns, 37 percent said they expect returns of 4 percent to 5.9 percent, while 30 percent expect returns of more than 6 percent. Only 4 percent of respondents expect to be down in 2019.
  • Their longer-term outlook for future generations are also cautious: Only a third of millionaires say their kids will be better off than they are, while 37 percent said they will be worse off.

These results obliquely point to issues that has been raised several times on MHProNews.


Barron’s Reports George Soros Move Presaging Market Drop, Harming Manufactured Housing, FAANG Stocks

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Consumer Confidence Index Report in for April

April 28th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: Insight DIY.

The slog of “sausage making” in Congress was a contributing factor in the April Consumer Confidence Index, as it ticked down in April, but consumer outlook for the next six months remains positive.

According to CNBC, the Index dropped to 120.3 in April, while economists were expecting the index to only fall to 122.9 for the month.


As Daily Business News readers are already aware, the index hit a new record high last month and its highest level in 16 years, coming in at 125.6.

The index was at 116.1 in February.

Consumer confidence … still remains at strong levels,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

Consumers assessed current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, the labor market less favorably [in April] than in March. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and income prospects.”


Credit: CNBC.

The survey showed that individuals indicating business conditions are “good” declined to 30.2 percent in April from 32.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” increased slightly, to 13.8 percent from 13.1 percent.

Outlook for the labor market was also down slightly, as the proportion of people expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 23.0 percent from 23.8 percent.


From Confidence to Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 97 for April, which was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 98 reading for the month.

Even with the dip, “there was widespread agreement among consumers on their very positive assessments of the current state of the economy as well as widespread disagreement on future economic prospects,” the university said in a statement.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that over the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, the unemployment rate for 16-24 rear olds has decreased from 10.1 percent to 9.1 percent; the rate for 20-24 year olds has decreased from 8.3 percent to 7.3 percent, and the rate for 25-34 year olds has decreased from 4.9 percent to 4.5 percent.

Over 317,000 non-farm jobs have been created, and there have been surges in both the construction and manufacturing sectors.

Confidence is playing a large role,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff – tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.”

For more on the impact, and progress, of the Trump Administration’s first 100 days, click here. ##

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RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Homebuyer Confidence – March Report

April 11th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: Fannie Mae.

Although overall consumer confidence rose in March, consumer confidence in home buying slipped almost four percentage points for the month.

According to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), confidence decreased 3.8 percentage points to 84.5, following a record high in February. The index showed that the share of people who reported that now is a good time to buy a home fell 10 percentage points, while the share reporting that now is a good time to sell increased by 9 percentage points.

The share of Americans who say that mortgage rates will go down over the next twelve months fell 5 percentage points, to a new survey low, and the share of those who think home prices will go up decreased by 1 percentage point this month.

Home purchase sentiment gave back some of the gains accumulated over the prior two months that sent the index to its survey high in February. Strong home price appreciation has turned into a double-edged sword for the housing market as it boosted the net share of consumers saying it’s a good time to sell to a record high, surpassing the plunging good time to buy indicator for the first time in the history of the survey,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist.


Credit: Fannie Mae.

In addition, the net share of consumers who expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year exceeded that experienced during the 2013 taper tantrum. However, the housing market could get some tailwinds from a seasonal rise in for-sale inventory, particularly as some sellers seek to lock in profits from recent rapid home price gains. The market could also get a boost from homebuyers who decide to jump into the market before rates rise further.”

The HPSI provides information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and expectations of housing market conditions.


Manufactured Housing Front and Center?

The Daily Business NewsMHProNews and MHLivingNews have covered the case for manufactured housing as a viable solution to hope for the American Dream of home ownership at a reasonable price extensively, including Bloomberg making a statement to the same effect.

The ability to significantly cut down on production time, provide a high quality product to federal standards, all at a lower price point serves as the ideal solution to inventory and housing challenges. The titans of business recognize the opportunity as well, as giants and independents alike are actually “doubling down” on the industry.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##


(Image credits are as shown above.)



RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews

Consumer Confidence Soars to Record High

April 7th, 2017 Comments off
housingwire credit consumer confidence

Credit: HousingWire.

The impact of a Donald Trump presidency continues to resonate, as consumer confidence reached its highest level in 16 years last month, according to Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

The Conference Board by Nielsen, which provides information around what consumers buy and watch, conducts the survey.

According to HousingWire, the Consumer Confidence Index improved significantly in March to 125.6, up from 116.1 in February. The Present Situation Index increased from 134.4 to 143.1 and the Expectations Index increased to 113.8, up from 103.9.

Beginning in 1985, the index was set to 100, and the value is adjusted monthly based on results from surveys. Opinions on current conditions account for 40 percent of the index, while future expectations make up 60 percent.

Consumer confidence increased sharply in March to its highest level since December 2000,” said Lynn Franco, who is the Conference Board director of economic indicators.

Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved considerably.”


Credit: The Conference Board, CNBC.

Consumers were much more optimistic about conditions in March, with those rating business conditions as “good” increasing from 28 to 32 percent, while those saying business conditions are bad decreased from 13 percent to 12 percent.

Feelings on the labor market were also more positive, with the percentage of consumers seeing jobs as “plentiful” increased from 26 to 31 percent.

Consumers also expressed much greater optimism regarding the short-term outlook for business, jobs and personal income prospects,” said Franco.

Thus, consumers feel current economic conditions have improved over the recent period, and their renewed optimism suggests the possibility of some upside to the prospects for economic growth in the coming months.”


President Donald J. Trump. Credit: Business Insider, Getty Images.

Consumers also relayed optimism for the future of the labor market, with those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increasing from 20 to 24 percent, and those expecting their incomes to increase jumped from 19 to 21 percent.

For more on the economy, including the March job numbers from ADP, click here. ##


(Image credits are as shown above.)



RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Homebuilder Confidence Numbers Released

March 20th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: NAHB.

In the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released last week, homebuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped six points to a level of 71, the highest it has been since June 2005.

According to Eye On Housing, one of the reasons for the increased confidence is that builders have started to realize benefits from President Trump’s actions on regulatory reform, specifically his recent executive order to rescind or revise the “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) rule that affects permitting.

The rule extended the areas in which homebuilders are required to get permits, often interfering with state and local regulatory authority. Recently, two courts have issued a temporary halt.


Granger McDonald. Credit: Builder Magazine.

NAHB commends President Trump for listening to our serious concerns about the flawed WOTUS rule that goes so far as to regulate man-made ditches and isolated ponds on private property,” said NAHB President Granger MacDonald at the signing ceremony for the executive order in February.

This is an important first step towards fixing the flawed regulation and working towards a more sensible WOTUS rulemaking.


Credit: NAHB.

In the index, all three HMI components showed sold gains in March, with current sales conditions increasing seven points to 78, sales expectations over the next six months rising five points to 78m and buyer traffic jumping eight points to 54.

While the numbers are positive, they do come with some guidance.

While builders are clearly confident, we expect some moderation in the index moving forward. Builders continue to face a number of challenges, including rising material prices, higher mortgage rates, and shortages of lots and labor,” the NAHB said in a statement.

The HMI also benefited from unseasonably warm weather at the start of 2017, improving both demand and construction conditions.

The Housing Market Index from NAHB is derived from a monthly survey which has been conducted for 30 years, and gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months.

The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers, and scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good, as opposed to poor.


“Sentiment” Versus Production

While the report from the NAHB reflects the sentiment of homebuilders, the most recent manufactured home production report from MHARR shows an actual production increase of 33.5 percent in January.

As Daily Business News readers are already aware, manufactured housing continues to offer one of the most practical and affordable solutions to providing a chance at the American dream for those who wish to own a home.

The titans of business recognize the opportunity as well, as giants and independents alike are actually “doubling down” on the industry.

ELS Chairman Sam Zell has been famously quoted as correcting misconceptions about the industry, saying during this interview, “Everyone calls them trailer parks. Pencil head, it’s not a trailer park.

For more on manufactured housing being the solution that’s hiding in plain sight, see MHProNews and MHLivingNews Publisher L.A. “Tony” Kovach’s insight into the opportunity linked here. ##


(Image credits are as shown above.)




RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews

NAHB Home Builder Confidence Report Released

February 18th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: MarketWatch, Getty Images.

In the latest report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), homebuilder confidence was down in February, after the November elections boosted the index to an 11-year high.

According to MarketWatch, the index fell 2 points to 65 in February, which puts it “solidly above” the 2016 average of 61 and in what the NAHB calls a “more normal range.


Overall, economists had forecast an uptick to 68 in February. Readings over 50 signal improving conditions.

The three sub-components of the index were down in February, with the current sales condition gauge falling one point to 71, while the measure of sales expectations over the next six months slid 3 points to 73.

The component that gauges buyer traffic fell five points to 46, putting it back below the neutral line.

In the near term, we expect a slight moderation in housing activity owing to higher mortgage rates, but the picture for 2017-18 remains one of modest trend improvement,” said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays.

Overall, the forward-looking indicators – a good predictor of housing starts activity six months ahead – remain on a strong footing, and we continue to expect a steady, albeit modest recovery in the housing sector this year.


Credit: NAHB, Times-Standard.

The NAHB index does not sync perfectly with the pace of construction activity, but if builders have more favorable assessments of business conditions, it usually indicates a stronger pace of construction.

Recently, builders have been breaking ground on only about two-thirds of the number of homes as their long-term average even as housing shortages are driving up costs for renting and buying. The NAHB cites more expensive and scarcer lots and labor, as well as increased regulation, for the slower pace of construction.

As the Daily Business News covered recently, the NAHB has been supportive of the moves from the Trump administration, including the proposed rollbacks of Dodd-Frank.


Granger MacDonald. Credit: Builder Magazine.

NAHB commends President Trump on his announcement to reform regulations in the Dodd-Frank Act that have hampered our nation’s housing recovery and slowed economic growth,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald.

We support common-sense regulations to protect American consumers and preserve our nation’s banking system, however, the tight lending conditions created by Dodd-Frank are preventing too many home builders from receiving loans and restricting mortgage financing to credit-worthy borrowers.

The Daily Business NewsMHProNews and MHLivingNews have covered Dodd-Frank and its impact on the manufactured housing industry extensively, including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Their impact on affordable housing has, in essence, created a “Renter’s Nation”. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)


RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Economic Confidence Index Hits New High – the Trump Effect?

February 9th, 2017 Comments off

Credit: Infowars.

It appears that Americans saw the election of Donald Trump as good reason to be optimistic.

According to Newsmax, confidence in the U.S. economy soared to record highs at the time President Donald Trump officially entered the White House, as optimism was higher in January than in any other month since 2008.


Gallup’s “U.S. Economic Confidence Index” was at an average of plus 11, the highest monthly average in Gallup’s nine-year trend. The index peaked at plus 19 for the Jan. 21-23 three-day average after Trump’s inauguration and shortly before the Dow Jones industrial average hit a new high.


Credit: Gallup.

The Gallup index is actually an average of two components – how Americans rate the current economic conditions, and, whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a maximum of plus 100 if all Americans said that they economy was improving and doing well, and minimum of minus 100 if all Americans said the economy was doing poorly or getting worse.

In January, 31 percent of Americans rated the economy as “good or “excellent,” while 21 percent said the economy was “poor,” resulting in a current conditions score of plus +10, marking the highest monthly reading for this component since 2008.


Credit: Gallup.

Also seeing an increase of plus 11 in January was the economic outlook component, which was the result of 52 percent of Americans saying economic conditions in the country were “getting better,” while 41 percent said they were “getting worse.

While his first few weeks have certainly been volatile and controversial, Trump will be a demanding leader who applies the best of his negotiating skills to push for U.S. growth,” said author David Horowitz.


David Horowitz. Credit: Frontpage Mag.

Trump won’t be an ideological purist like Republicans who support free trade but don’t fight for fair trade.

Horowitz also made a strong statement about the prior administration.

We’ve had an anti-business president now for eight years who doesn’t take a hard-nosed attitude towards these deals. Trump is going to get better deals for us, which is still free trade.

Trump will also lead the way in making infrastructure spending to boost the U.S. economy,” said Horowitz.

If the economy grows as it will under Trump, there’s going to be a lot more money to spend.

For more on the effects of Donald Trump’s election on the U.S. economy, including small business optimism being at the highest level in 37 years, click here. ##

(Image credits are as shown above.)


RC Williams, for Daily Business News, MHProNews.

Submitted by RC Williams to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.

Builder Confidence Holds Steady in September

September 17th, 2013 Comments off

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for new, single-family homes remained unchanged in Sept. at 58. “While builder confidence is holding at the highest level in nearly eight years, many are reporting some hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in interest rates,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson. Based on builder perceptions of current sales, sales expectations for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers, the survey has been used for 25 years, and any number over 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good rather than poor. MHProNews has learned all four regions recorded gains: The Midwest and the West each advanced four points, and the Northeast and South both saw gains of two points.

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Mood Continues to Brighten for Home Builders

August 15th, 2013 Comments off

Builder confidence for new, single-family homes rose three points to 59, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), bringing the index to its highest mark in almost eight years. Any number over 50 is rated as “good”, MHProNews has learned. The index measures current sales, traffic of prospective customers and sales expectations for the next six months. Says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “Builder confidence continues to strengthen along with rising demand for a limited supply of new and existing homes in most local markets. However, this positive momentum is being slowed by the ongoing headwinds of tight credit and low supplies of finished lots and labor.” Regionally, the Midwest gained six points to 60, the West also moved up six points, to 57, while the South notched a four-point gain and the Northeast remained steady at 39.

(Photo credit: Sue Orgocki/Associated Press)

Builder Sentiment Rises for Senior Housing Market

August 8th, 2013 Comments off

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes rose to its highest second quarter level since the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) began keeping track in 2008. Marking the seventh quarter of year-over-year improvements, the Housing Market Index rose 24 points to 53, as MHProNews has learned. The index measures builders sentiment concerning current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated sales for the next six months, in which any number over 50 means builders see the market as good rather than poor. “The 55+ HMI for single-family homes almost doubled from a year ago,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Sentiment in other segments of the 55+ market housing was strong as well. The main challenge for builders in many parts of the country is finding enough buildable lots in desirable locations and workers with the necessary skill set to respond to the increased demand.”

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)