Posts Tagged ‘builder confidence’

“Buyers Have Had Enough,” says Redfin’s Glenn Kelman

August 15th, 2018 Comments off


As U.S. home prices have increased faster than wages for 70 straight months, buyers in markets like these have finally had enough, at least for now. There are still plenty of markets where homebuyer demand is strong. But for the first time in years, we are getting reports from managers of some markets that homebuyer demand is waning, especially in some of Redfin’s largest markets,” according to CEO Glenn Kelman, per Fox.


In a release do the Daily Business News on MHProNews, Redfin Housing Demand Index fell 0.7 percent month over month to 120 in June.

Per the real estate firm, “The decline was driven by a 2.2 percent decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of homebuyers requesting tours, and a 12.2 percent decrease in the number making offers on homes from May to June. The Demand Index is based on thousands of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers.”

It’s not the only signal of still strong demand, that nevertheless shows signs of more road bumps ahead.  Several of those bumps, arguably, spell opportunity in disguise for savvy factory-builders and investors.

Home builders’ confidence in the U.S. housing market edged lower in August as builders reported strong demand but also expressed concerns that rising prices loom as a potential threat to sales,” said Fox, adding as follows.

Builder confidence edged down to 67 in August on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), from July’s 68 but in line with economists’ expectations. It is the lowest reading for the HMI since September 2017 when the reading came in at 64. It is, however, still a solid reading with any measure above 50 indicating expansion.”

An interview with Kelman by Bloomberg is posted above.  Redfin is competing against real estate brokers, as well as firms like Zillow.

The above points to opportunities in the affordable housing field. They are also reasons why manufactured housing should be performing far better that it has been. For reasons why the reality is different than the potential, and what that means to potential visionary investors, see the related reports, linked below. ## (News, analysis and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

FEDs, MHI, Buffett’s Berkshire’s Clayton Homes Moat, Affordable Housing, and Billion$ in Manufactured Home Market Manipulation

State of the Industry Report – No Spin, says Chuck Shinn, Ph.D.

January 3rd, 2017 Comments off

Chart graphic credit, Builder Partnerships. Text graphic and collage credit, MHProNews.

In Chuck Shinn, Ph.D, “State of the Industry” report, the president of Builder Partnerships tells the Daily Business News that “Housing is Good.”

Shinn said, “we are committed to telling you the good, the bad, and the ugly so you can make informed, intelligent decisions about how to run your company. When we tell you the market is doing well, you know you can trust our optimism.”

Over 15% Growth in 2017?


Chuck Shinn, Ph.D. Builder Partnerships.

As we finish 2016, this will be the strongest year,” since the 2009 ‘recovery,’ said Shinn. “My prediction for 2017 is that housing sales will be 15 to 20 percent over 2016.”

Shinn explained that he spends a lot of time studying data.
He says he looks at “…historic economic trends, real estate reports, manufacturing production levels, demographics, you name it. Show me numbers and I crunch them.”


The charts on this page are part of the fruits of those number-crunching labors.

In November, existing home sales were as strong as they have been since February 2007, when we were in the thick of the housing boom,” Shinn said. “Currently, we’re going to exceed 1.2 million housing starts, and new home sales are running 13 percent over last year.”



The Bottom Lines. Housing sales are up, and new home inventories are down. Graphics supplied by Builder Partnerships.


Juanita Duggan, President and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business (credit, NFIB).

That mirrors the optimism shown in recent Daily Business News.  For example, Juanita Duggan – President, and CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) – who said, “Before Election Day small business owners’ optimism was flat, and after Election Day it soared.”  Hundreds of Duggan’s members are in manufactured housing and land-lease communities, as more in the building and supplier trades.

Sales of automobiles —the other big consumable durable category — have been strong,” Shinn said. “Consumer confidence is good; the builder confidence index is strong as well.”

The one wild card, he says, is rising mortgage rates. But short term, that is pushing more people to buy now.  And historically ‘normal’ times, in manufactured housing, rising rates on conventional housing could boost manufactured home sales as some were priced out of conventional homes and opted for a HUD Code manufactured home instead.

There is speculation that this may bode well for a good 2017 Louisville Show, which is only 2 weeks off. Stay tuned… ##

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SoheylaKovachManufacturedHomeLivingNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-Submitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News on MHProNews.

Sunday Morning Recap-Manufactured Housing Industry News July 17-July 24, 2016

July 24th, 2016 Comments off

MHProNews_3 July 17-July 24 2016 postedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsWhat’s New in public focused Manufactured

The Aha! Moment – Entertainer’s Delight LifeStyle Model Home Video Tour

Proud to be American, God Bless the USA, Lee Greenwood Music Video, Interview

What’s New in Manufactured Housing Industry Professional News

Trump’s acceptance speech unexpectedly draws favorable response on CNN. New Jersey modular builder draws charges of fraud. Hotel in UK will be modular. Texas city denies MHC development; DJ Pendleton objects. After spending billions, Dodd-Frank leaves muddy trail. 22 million tune in to Republican National Convention. Patrick Ind. creating 60 jobs. Housing starts rise in June, builder confidence slips. Hispanic leaders choose Trump over Clinton. Laramie, WY updating antiquated MH regulations. Sweden wants modular homes for immigrants. FEMA seeking MH sites for flood victims. And much, much more in news and views for manufactured home professionals to peruse.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

New Jersey Home Improvement Firm Accused of $1.1 Million Fraud in Modular Home Scam

Friday, July 22

CNN Instant Poll on Donald Trump GOP Nomination Acceptance Speech Fuels Twitter Commentary

MH Component Supplier Drew to Discuss Q2 Financials

UFPI Gains 5.59 Percent; Dow Returns to Positive Territory

Wyoming City Finally Settles on MH and RV Ordinances

UK Hotel will be Modularly Built

First Time Home Buyers Returned in June

Thursday, July 21

Texas Commissioners Deny MHC App, Prompting DJ Pendleton to Come out Swinging

Manufactured Home Community Changes Hands in Pennsylvania

Dow Jones Ends Run-up; UFPI Falls -2.31 Points

The Dodd-Frank Legacy: Billions Spent, More Designated, Questionable Gains

Petitioners in Ill. City Seek Special Use Permits for MH Sitings

UMH Properties, Inc. Stock being Pursued

Wednesday, July 20

22 Million Tune into GOP Convention; the Media Rundown

Patrick Industries Subsidiary Creating 60 Jobs in Mississippi

Dow Jones Continues Upward; Louisiana-Pacific Tops MH-related Stocks

Hedge Funds Upping Stake in Drew Industries, Inc.

Housing Starts, Single-family Home Construction Shows Promise in June

Builder Confidence Index Slips in July, but Still in Positive Territory

Tuesday, July 19

ELS Q2 2016 Indicates Revenue, Income and Community Growth

Large Religious Camp Seeking Manufactured Homes for Participants

MHCV Falls -5.78 Percent; Dow Jones Continues Flying Higher

Despite the Bashing, Hispanic Politicos Endorse Trump as Stronger than Clinton

Two Tornado-struck Families Receive Gifted Manufactured Homes

Laramie, WY Updating 50-year old Manufactured Home Regulations

Mon. July 18

Canadian City to Deal with MH Community Rezoning, Hold Housing Forum

Cavco Industries tops Today’s Gainers, as Dow Rises ever Higher

Sweden wants to Site Modular Homes on Tiny Island

FEMA Set to Site Manufactured Homes for Flooding Survivors

Seattle has Tiny Homes, but without Prices to Match

Sunday Morning Recap-Manufactured Housing Industry News July 10-July 17, 2016 ##

(Photo credit:MHProNews)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J Silver to Daily business News-MHProNews.

Market for Single-family 55+ Building Remains Strong

May 1st, 2015 Comments off

senior smiling   masterfile creditThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells MHProNews that builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market remains strong in Q1 2015 despite the index edging down one point to 58 from the previous quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter the Housing Market Index (HMI) has been above 50. Any number above 50 indicates builders feel positive towards this segment of the market.

Two of the three components of the 55+ single-family HMI marked increases from the fourth quarter of 2014: current sales rose one point to 64, expected sales for the coming six months increased three points to 67, while the flow of prospective buyers dropped eight points to 40.

Timothy McCarthy, chairman of NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council, said, “Builders in many parts of the country were affected by a particularly severe winter, but builders and developers in the 55+ sector continue to be positive as we move forward in 2015.” He says builders in the 55+ market remain bullish for the remainder of the year. ##

(Image credit: masterfile–smiling senior)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-comArticle submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Housing Market Index Rises to Highest Yearly Point

April 15th, 2015 Comments off

house building  comstock premiumThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells MHProNews builder confidence for single-family, newly-built homes rose four points in April to 56 points on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any number over 50 indicates more builders see conditions as good rather than poor.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, “The HMI component index measuring future sales expectations rose five points in April to its highest level of the year. This uptick shows builders are feeling optimistic that the housing market will continue to strengthen throughout 2015.

Based on a survey that has been conducted for 30 years, the index measures current single-family home sales, sales expectations for the next six months, and traffic of prospective home buyers. Regionally, gauging the three month moving index for HMI scores, the South rose a point to 56, the Northwest remained at 42, the Midwest dropped two points to 54, while the West fell three points to 58. ##

(Photo credit: comstockpremium)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-com  Article submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Builders of Stick-Built Homes Indicate Slight Confidence Drop

March 16th, 2015 Comments off

home building   fotosearchThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) informs MHProNews that builder confidence for for newly-built, single-family homes dropped two points in March on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (MHI), hitting the lowest point in eight months.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe and Chairman Tom Woods, noting the index remains in positive territory–any reading above 50 indicates builders see conditions as more favorable rather than less favorable—are still confident of a strong spring buying season due to the growing job market, low interest rates and pent-up demand.

Builders’ gauge of current sales conditions fell three points, estimate of buyer traffic dropped two points, while the gauge of sales expectations for the next six months held steady at 59. Regionally, in composite form, the Midwest rose two points to 56, the West fell seven points to 61, the South lost two points to 55 and the Northeast dropped two points to land at 43.

The NAHB has been conducting a monthly survey of builders for 30 years. ##

(Photo credit: fotosearch)

matthew-silver-daily-business-news-mhpronews-com  Article submitted by Matthew J. Silver to Daily Business News-MHProNews.

Builder Confidence in Single-family Homebuilding Rises

September 17th, 2014 Comments off

home planning     theatlanticcities  creditNotching its highest reading since Nov. of 2005, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) tells MHProNews builder confidence in the market for single-family homes rose four points to 59. The HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales, sales expectations for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers, where any number over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good rather than poor. “While a firming job market is helping to unleash pent-up demand for new homes and contributing to a gradual, upward trend in builder confidence, we are still not seeing much activity from first-time home buyers,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Other factors impeding the pace of the housing recovery include persistently tight credit conditions for consumers and rising costs for materials, lots and labor.” Based on a survey NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, builder confidence rose in all four regions of the U. S. in September. ##

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Builder Confidences Rises for 55+ Market

May 8th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports their most recent single-family 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) is up the first quarter of 2014 to 50, the highest Q1 reading since the survey of builders’ confidence began in 2008. It is also the tenth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements, MHProNews has learned. Measuring builder confidence in the market, the survey is based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six month sales for single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe: “The 55+ segment of the housing market is stronger now than it was a year ago, helped by factors like rising house prices, which has increased owners’ equity and allowed them to buy in a 55+ community. But there are still some headwinds hampering a stronger recovery, as builders in many markets are facing tight credit conditions and a lack of lots and labor.” ##

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New Home Builder Confidence Struggles

March 18th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence rose to 47 in March from a reading of 46 in February. The gauge measures builders estimates of how the housing market is performing as it reflects the rising demand for new homes. Even as the traditional spring buying season begins, builders still face a shortage of skilled workers and available lots as well as rising material costs. Regionally, understands the Midwest and Northeast both notched a three point loss, while the South fell four points and the West, two. ##

(Photo credit:

Housing Market Index Falls One Point, but Still Above 50

January 16th, 2014 Comments off

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) reports builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell one point to 56 in January. Rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates and significant pent-up demand will drive a continuing, gradual recovery in the year ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, the pace of the recovery could be stronger were it not for rising construction costs and inaccurate appraisals that are keeping some home sales from going through.” MHProNews has learned the HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family homes, sales expectations over the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers. Regionally, the West rose four points to 63, the Northeast increased four points also, to 42, while the South remained steady at 56 and the Midwest dropped one to 58.

(Image credit: National Association of Home Builders)