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Turn the Page, Manufactured Housing Making History

December 30th, 2018 Comments off

TurnThePageManufacturedHousingMakingHistoryMHProNewsLogo

There are words, and then there are deeds.

 

There’s smoke and mirrors, or the clarity born of facts, evidence, and sound reason.

It’s about time to turn the page. 2018 is about to come to a close. It will be several weeks before the industry at large knows the final tallies for HUD Code manufactured housing shipments for the year. But rest assured, about a dozen (+/-) MHPros already know pretty close to what the final count for 2018 will be.

You’ll get an idea too from one of the articles in a headline linked below.

Why did the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) invest a purported 5 figures in a video to promote how great they are? Is it because annual dues/membership renewal time was coming up? Did the Arlington, VA based MHI want to get into the pockets of independents in manufactured housing once again? Did MHI leaders want to collect more money from independents before the disappointing totals for 2018 would be revealed?

There are many ways to point to the tragic truth that:

  • thousands of manufactured housing (MH) independents,
  • numbers of investors, and
  • millions of consumers have debatably been conned, manipulated, and cheated out of greater wealth.

We never say things like that lightly. Keep in mind, we have done our share of ‘cheer leading’ on MHProNews and on MHLivingNews for the industry too. Cheer leading is easy.  Cheer leading, when it is honest, is fun.  Telling several thousand industry pros that they’ve been ripped off?  Not nearly as much fun.  Don’t blame the messenger for the #Nettlesome message, we’re just following the evidence, tips from sources, track record, and common sense.

There came a point in time when questions, evidence, and logic opened-our-eyes as to the obvious reasons why the industry has failed to progress. Why did RVs roar past MH?  Why is mainstream housing so high, when the value of manufactured and modular homes should mean that our MH industry should be performing at much higher levels too?

When affordable housing is in crisis, and MHVille will finish about 100,000 (+/-) shipments, how is it possible that voices from Arlington keep belting out that same old tired song?

There comes a point in time when the accumulation of voices that kept telling MHProNews, ‘something is wrong here’ begs for attention. We’re returning the favor that those voices gave to us.

There comes a time to turn the page.

But a way simple way to prove the truth about MHI is to invite the leadership of the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis to do the right thing.  No excuses.  Just do one thing right, one time, on one specific issue.

Turn the page and learn more.

 

 

The Disney “Trailer” Controversy & MHI ‘Leadership’

Bragging is easy for some. But it’s performance that counts.

When MHI’s former chairman Tim Williams, who is also the president of Berkshire Hathaway owned 21st Mortgage Corp, says there’s a good case to be made that every problematic report, misuse of terminology, etc. should be challenged, it was a revealing statement.

We believe that Tim Williams was right on that point.

Why did Clayton, Warren Buffett or Berkshire Vice-Chair Charlie Munger respond to attacks on Clayton, 21st, or Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance (VMF)? It can be oversimplified and summed up n two words.

Reputation Defense.

If Reputation Defense is good enough for Clayton, 21st, and VMF – then why isn’t a fact-based reputation defense of the entire MH industry every bit as important to MHI, or the Berkshire brands that dominate MHVille? Why has MHI already weighed in with Disney, to defend the industry’s reputation?

MHI and their masters will either weigh in on the Disney controversy – see the articles linked below – or not. It’s really that simple.

Our publisher, L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach, has reached out to numbers of those MHI leaders on Friday. He did so bcc’ing numbers of MHI and non-MHI members. He also sent a message to an attorney who claims to represent MHI.

No excuses.  The truth will come out, period.

Either MHI and their Omaha-Knoxville and allied masters will act to defend the reputation of manufactured housing – as has:

–   Mark Weiss, JD, President of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR)

–   Al Kemp, Executive Director of the Manufactured Home Park Owners (BC, Canada), and

   Paul Bradley, President of ROC USA already have.

Or MHI won’t. Simple. Clear.  No excuses.

See what those 3 industry leaders had to say in one of the linked articles on Disney further below.

 

MHI-Inspired “Boycott”?

It spoke volumes that MHI purportedly had their part-time surrogate, George Allen, call for a “boycott” of MHProNews within hours of our article and most recent headline news update being published and emailed.

Antitrust Girard Gibbs law firm says this, “A group boycott occurs when two or more competitors in a relevant market refuse to conduct business with a specific individual or company. Individual companies may always unilaterally decide to stop doing business with another company, but agreements between competitors may violate antitrust laws.”

So, there is a legal expert’s view that an organized boycott can be an antitrust violation. That means that those who were behind the called for boycott, have placed themselves in the legal cross hairs.

Those who participate, ditto.

The hypocritical irony of the call for a boycott is that GF Allen has – when he was on the outs with MHI – called MHI and their masters, Oligarchs. Allen has said in his own words that the industry was being monopolized. But sadly, the retired Marine Allen has a purported reputation for saying and doing what he thinks will give him more money, leverage, and/or attention. Rest assured, if a group of independents offered Allen a pile of cash, based on his history, he’d arguably turn on MHI again in a New York minute. His own reputation after the SECO-connected legal fiasco speaks sufficiently of his credibility. Keep in mind that just because SECO isn’t in the headlines, that doesn’t mean that the investigation and case prep aren’t ongoing.

George can say whatever stuff he wishes to say or write – within the norms of the law, ethics, etc. – but facts still matter. If Allen had proven a single claims, that might have been interesting. But instead, bomb throwing without a shred of evidence, and a call for a “boycott.”  That’s called a red herring. It’s also arguably opened Allen – and those with him – up for legal investigation, and potential action.

It would also be the reasons why industry pros should say, ‘what are the folks in Arlington and Knoxville trying to keep us from reading?’

Short of successful criminal and civil actions against the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis, the next greatest thing they fear is arguably exposure.  Once the mask is completely off, then their MHI connected ‘alleged’ con game is over.

DeceptiveTradePracticesManufacturedHousingInstituteDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

As with any con, the faces smile while pockets are being picked. Is your firm one of those pockets being picked?

After all, if those in MHVille who see MHI in a protection racket/con game fashion are correct, then the little guys are paying to have the big guys destroy the little guys own interests.

Or as Marty Lavin, an MHI award winner put it in his words, MHI only works for the little guys when that happens to match the interests of the big guys.

Within an hour of being asked, Al Kemp – who was on vacation in Hawaii when his office had contacted him – within an hour, Al had written Disney a fine message.  It was a good compliment to those from Mark Weiss and Paul Bradley. Al thought it that important.

If Al Kemp, Mark Weiss and Paul Bradley did, how about MHI?

What excuse will MHI give? Does it matter? Or if they now act only because they were pushed into it, what glory is there in that?

Do you see why our publisher has at times used satire? Don’t the tragic jokes practically write themselves?

And if MHI or the Berkshire brands do – out of shame or embarrassment – finally weigh in with Disney on their terminology issue – and they should! – then here’s the next question.  Why haven’t they done a real reputation defense of the entire MH Industry for the last few years on all similar issues?

It’s debatably time to turn the page on the failed systems and problematic leaders of recent years.

In the articles and reports that follow, several themes will come to light.

1)    There are huge opportunities in factory-built housing.

2)    Manufactured homes are underperforming.  That’s opportunity in disguise, for those who know what to do.

3)    That logically means that MHI, their allies and surrogates, have ignored reputation defense.  Doesn’t that disproportionately hurt the little guys more than the big ones?

Our sources in Washington and other cities were investigations of the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis are underway tell us that these things take time. You and thousands will need to be patient, just as we are.

But there will likely come a day when you’ll wake up to a headline that’s not found first on MHProNews, but rather will be in national media. Those imagined headlines could read like this:

  • Antitrust charges filed against major firms, and trade group, details at 10.”
  • “RICO-related arrests occurred at national trade association headquarters, details at 10.”

The mantra of a con artist is ‘never, ever give up the con.’ They – whomever are in that loop – won’t likely confess, unless it is part of a plea deal with federal/state investigators. They arguably won’t admit they’re deceiving the MH industry they claim to be protecting.

The powers that be certainly won’t want to face millions of manufactured home owners – who because DTS isn’t being properly implemented by MHI, Fannie and Freddie – are arguably be cheated of lower payments, and higher resale values.

Turn the page.

2018 is almost done. 2019 is almost upon us.

Thousands of more pros are logging on daily than at this time a year ago.  Why?  Because at a minimum, they – like you – are learning to be more skeptical of the ludicrous claims made by MHI and their puppet masters.

 

ManufacturedHousingInstitutelogoMHILogoMHIVideoStillsMillionsofViewsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

Anyone who can produce graphics like the above, and can still smile, ask for their year-end bonuses, and do so while they tell you that 100,000 (+/-) new HUD Code manufactured homes are sold in 2018 are selling and/or smoking something.

Buying or smoking what they offer is arguably bad for your health.

Want to make manufactured housing history? Turn the page.

 

RuleNumber1NeverGiveUpTheConGodfatherDailyBusinessNewsMhproNews

Liars can lie with a straight face. Con artists can’t give up the con, because if they do, what’s left for them? Either MHI knows what they say they are doing – in which case shipments should be rising significantly, right? Or MHI and their Knoxville-Omaha masters don’t know what to do, in which case their failure to move the needle makes sense, but in that case, they shouldn’t claim to be leaders, right? Or, MHI knows what to do, and do what doesn’t work, which benefits a few that want to consolidate the industry into their hands at a discount – are there other logical alternatives? If so, please, explain it in writing, because MHI can’t or won’t. 

 

What’s good for your health is a dose of reality-based reports. See those hot-linked headlines and image/text boxes that take you to the reports for the week from 12.23.2018 to 12.30.2018 are below.

Notice: the headlines that are also boxed-links isn’t to imply that story may be more important than another.  Read every headline, because what you need may be the one you could miss. Resolve to make the changes at your location that can make 2019 brighter than any other year. 

With no further adieu, let’s dive into the week that was.

 

What’s New on the Daily Business News on MHProNews

11DailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogos

 

Saturday 12.29.2018

Going PreFab, Habitat for Humanity Announces Plan for Factory Home Building in 2019

Going PreFab, Habitat for Humanity Announces Plan for Factory Home Building in 2019

 

Friday 12.28.2018

Leaving Paradise, “Hell on Earth” – FEMA and Christmas, New Year Responses to Grim Camp Fire

Leaving Paradise, “Hell on Earth” – FEMA and Christmas, New Year Responses to Grim Camp Fire

Bankrupt Sears Gets Last Minute Bid, Plus MH Market Updates

 

MHARR, ROC USA, Canadian Association Weigh-In On Disney “Trailers” Controversy

MHARR, ROC USA, Canadian Association Weigh-In On Disney “Trailers” Controversy

What the Latest Numbers from #1 Manufactured Housing Market Texas Reveals

What the Latest Numbers from #1 Manufactured Housing Market Texas Reveals

 

Thursday 12.27.2018

“We Have to Keep Changing Too as Retailers”

7 Facts Can Free You from Bear Market Fears, Plus MH Market Updates

7 Facts Can Free You from Bear Market Fears, Plus MH Market Updates

Oil, Soybean Market Maneuvers and Manipulation Reveal Broader Concerns for MHVille

Oil, Soybean Market Maneuvers and Manipulation Reveal Broader Concerns for MHVille

Metro Town Rejects Hundreds of Affordable Housing Units, Cites Reasons Against Using Manufactured Homes

Metro Town Rejects Hundreds of Affordable Housing Units, Cites Reasons Against Using Manufactured Homes

 

Wednesday 12.26.2018

Santa Rally Better Late Than Never, Dow Up 1,000 – Most Tracked Manufactured Home Stocks Rise

Introducing Hyundai Engineering Projects, Donates Disaster-Resistant Modular Homes

Introducing Hyundai Engineering Projects, Donates Disaster-Resistant Modular Homes

FEMA Manufactured Housing Unit (MHU) Program Extension Announced

FEMA Manufactured Housing Unit (MHU) Program Extension Announced

Disney Utilizes Inaccurate, Prejudicial Terminology “Trailer” Offensive to Factory-Builders, Homeowners

Disney Utilizes Inaccurate, Prejudicial Terminology “Trailer” Offensive to Factory-Builders, Homeowners

 

Tuesday 12.25.2018

Legends, Battle of Bedford Falls, and Christmas in Affordable Housing’s MH Land

Legends, Battle of Bedford Falls, and Christmas in Affordable Housing’s MH Land

Sears Prefab Home Initiative

Sears Prefab Home Initiative

 

Monday 12.24.2018

Divergence-Real Economy vs. Market, POTUS Blames FED, Market Plunge Deepens, Plus MH Equities Updates

Best Prefab, Modular Homes 2018, Videos

Sears Prefab Home Initiative

“Manufactured Housing Institute Attorney” Letter and MHProNews Response

“Manufactured Housing Institute Attorney” Letter and MHProNews Response

Clayton Donates Manufactured Home for Christmas, But What’s Up With Those Lumps of Coal?

Clayton Donates Manufactured Home for Christmas, But What’s Up With Those Lumps of Coal?

 

12.23.2018

Escaping the Grave? Affordable, Manufactured Housing News

Escaping the Grave? Affordable, Manufactured Housing News

Together with thousands of honest MHVille pros of good will, we can make our industry achieve its great potential. That’s done by making American lives better, together. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Sunday Morning, weekly headline news review, analysis, and commentary.)

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

Related Reports:

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Clayton’s Miss, Kevin and Tim’s Manufactured Housing Kill Shot, More

What Just Happened, to Cavco, Independent Communities, Retailers, and Manufactured Housing?

 

“Pants on Fire” – Latest New Manufactured Housing Shipment Report

December 4th, 2018 Comments off

 

PantsonFireNRCC-LatestNewManufacturedHousingShipmentReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire…”

    part of a children’s rhyme to discourage dishonesty.

 

You want to be very careful about lying;

otherwise you are nearly sure to get caught.”

   Mark Twain, advice to youth, per Speakola.

 

Just because something isn’t a lie does not mean that it isn’t deceptive.

A liar knows that he is a liar, but one who speaks mere portions of truth

in order to deceive is a craftsman of destruction.”

   Chris Jami, according to Goodreads.

  

 

Facts and evidence can be nettlesome things.

The latest new HUD Code manufactured home shipment data is in. And the timing couldn’t have been worse for the Manufactured Housing Institute’s (MHI) new video, which brags about how much they are doing to promote the sales of more manufactured homes.

Can you spell ‘embarrassing?’

 

For the second month in a row, the shipments of new HUD Code manufactured homes are down, albeit modestly. But during the same timeframe that Kevin Clayton, CEO of Clayton Homes, and MHI’s SVP Lesli Gooch have taken to mainstream and other industry news media (not us) to claim how manufactured housing is being embraced as a solution to the affordable housing crisis, the shipment levels have dipped two months in a row. 

Ouch. Embarrassing…

According to the latest data from HUD, and the analysis of the Washington, D.C. based Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), shipments declined .5 percent over the same month last year. 

 MHARROct2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryProductionReportDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews601

 

As MHProNews has alone been reporting to the industry’s professionals for months, there have been numerous warning signs on the horizon.

It’s not a disaster. But it is a cause for quiet concern among some of MHI’s larger members, and the independents alike. There are firms like Legacy Housing that in their recent IPO filing are reporting sales growth that bucks the national trend.  For more details on that, click the box below for that distinctive report.

Legacy Housing IPO, Lending Tree, & New HUD Ruling Updates

 

But the national data clearly reflects that overall, sales for the manufactured home industry at large have slipped. State data, as the Daily Business News on MHProNews has reported, reflects the fact that at least two of the top ten manufactured housing states examined have been losing sales, not gaining them.  One of those exclusive MHProNews reports is available by clicking the box, linked below, which has distinctive but related data with analysis.

 

Another Top Manufactured Home State is Sliding on New HUD Code Home Shipments, More New Data

 

One informed source with long ties to Clayton has said that there are troubling rumors coming from production centers tied to their parent company in Knoxville, TN. Time will tell.

And this two month dip arguably belies MHI’s razzle dazzle claims in their new video, just as the Daily Business News on MHProNews has been warning.  See the previously reported screen captures of the latest MHI video, presented as a collage, below.  Using their own data, taking them at their word, doesn’t it prove the latest national shipment report clearly demonstrate the opposite of what they are claiming?

 

ManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoScreenCpaturesMHIvideostatisticalclaimsDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews 

 

Let’s make it simple.

   Over 1/3 of the U.S. are renters.  That represents millions upon millions of potential buyers.

   The National Association for Realtors (NAR) said earlier this year that the nation needs 8.3 million more housing units.

   The National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) says the nation needs for more affordable housing rental units have risen from 5.8 million to 7.2 million units, per Curbed.

   Manufactured homes are the most affordable kind of new permanent housing in the nation, per NAR’s 2018 research.

   Site builders are stalling on sales, due in part to rising costs and interest rates.

   All of the above are historic reasons why manufactured home sales normally should be rising.

   The RV industry went from trailing manufactured home shipments by 3 to 2 two decades ago, to now outselling manufactured homes by a ratio of some 5 to 1.

   If RVs could grow so much, why not MH?

   And yet given all of the bullets above, new HUD Code manufactured home sales are slipping nationally? Two months in a row?

   How can Kevin Calyton, Tim Williams, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison or the MHI staff show their faces at Louisville with these troubling results?

 

See MHARR’s full report, by clicking the linked box below.

Production Flatline Continues in October 2018

 

See last month’s HUD Code shipment data by clicking the linked box below.

September 2018 Manufactured Home Production Data Shows Slight Flatline

 

See our pro-active step one of our manufactured housing solutions report from last night, by clicking the linked box below.

 

#$2Trillion U.S. GDP Growth via Affordable Housing Plan Few Discuss – Introducing #YimbyVictory2020

ManufacturedHmeIndustryAchieveGreatPotentialAddressingResolvingCauseCorePerceptionIssuesLATonyKovachQuotePresentationPhoto

When MHProNews spotlighted that MHI had reputedly done nothing on reaching out to the CFPB in 2017, MHI – perhaps in their embarrassment – began to move to get something done. When MHARR pushed MHI long enough on the DOE energy rule, MHI finally pivoted. It seems that MHI acts for the interests they claim to stand for best when the spotlight hits their lack of action otherwise. Will this story cause them to actually do what their video purportedly claims they do?

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make or offer a cogent explanation?

To better understand the purported deceptions by Berkshire brands and the Arlington, VA based national trade group that they dominate, see the related reports, linked further below. We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

NOTICE: Readers have periodically reported that they are getting a better experience when reading MHProNews on the Microsoft Edge, or Apple Safari browser than with Google’s Chrome browser. Chrome reportedly manipulates the content of a page more than the other two browsers.

(Related Reports are further below. Third-party images and content are provided under fair use guidelines.)

1) To sign up in seconds for our MH Industry leading emailed news updates, click here.

ManufacturedHomeIndustry#1HeadlineNewsMHProNews

To see a sample of our emailed news update, click here. To sign up for the factory-built home industry’s #1 headline news, click here or the graphic above.

2) To provide a News Tips and/or Commentary, click the link to the left. Please note if your comments are on-or-off the record, thank you.

3) Marketing, Web, Video, Consulting, Recruiting and Training Re-sources

SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

Related Reports:  Click the Boxes Below to Read More…

Crisis of Misinformation, Fact Checks, and Manufactured Housing

Nathan & Mary Lee Chance Smith, Leaders in ‘Anti-Trump Resistance,’ Manufactured Housing Impact?

Clayton’s Miss, Kevin and Tim’s Manufactured Housing Kill Shot, More

Machiavellian “Godfather” – Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, Capital, Lending and Crossed Lines in Manufactured Housing

 

 

Ford and Toyota Teach Manufactured Housing Professionals and Investors

November 26th, 2018 Comments off

 

FordLogoToyotaLogoTeachManufacturedHousingIndustryProfessionalsInvestorsDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

There are times that one must look outside of one’s industry or profession for useful insights. That’s the case with today’s Monday Morning Marketing and Sales Meeting.

 

Toyota has issued a recall for some 800,000 Prius vehicles, per NPR. Those recall totals are equal to about 11 years of the entire unit production of all new manufactured housing (MH).

Toyota said they sold some 2.4 million cars from 1500 U.S. dealerships in 2017 alone.  Did ‘bad news’ about recalls hurt them?

Let those fact sink in.

Because excuses are a dime a dozen.  What those facts should tell manufactured home professionals is that even with bad news – and that wasn’t the only bad news for Toyota – their average retailer sold about 1,600 vehicles each in just 1 year. That’s 133 vehicles averaged monthly per dealer. How many individual MH retailers sold as many units in a year, as a typical Toyota dealer sold in a month?

Then, consider the fact that part of Toyota’s business model – and that of every other major automaker – builds in an allowance in the price of every vehicle to cover the costs of just such safety recalls.

Put differently, Toyota and other carmakers build in for bad news.  Yes, manufactured home producers build in for service on homes too.  But why is it that ‘bad news’ impacts MHVille more than it does automotive, RVs, or other forms of housing?

 

MHVille Comments

We get comments from manufactured housing industry professionals that span the gamut. For example, some are about ‘quality’ issues in certain homes. Pardon me? Every automaker, every RV maker has ‘quality’ issues too, as that example above demonstrates. Does it keep them from selling many times more units annually than our MH industry does?

While there are service issues, third-party research reveals that overall satisfaction with manufactured homes by their homeowners is high, and the number of homes purchased that go to dispute resolution are a tiny fraction of a single percent of total production.  When scrutinized objectively, there’s far more good news to be found in MHVille than stories that reflect badly. Which begs the question, why does the MH industry struggle as it does?

Much of the challenge for manufactured housing professionals and investors is one of mindset and discipline.  Behind every ‘problematic’ news report we cover, there is a silver lining, for those with the eyes, wisdom, and guts to see it.

Drive by or go visit the nearest automotive super store or major RV center. Look at those huge inventories.   Realize that there are numerous locations selling hundreds of vehicles a month, all in a location near your own business.

Them step back and objectively ask yourself, why aren’t more manufactured homes being sold?  How many units a month are you selling per location?

  • When over 500,000 are homeless in America,
  • when the USA requires 8.3 million new housing units right now, per Chief Economist Lawrence Yun at the National Association of Realtors (NAR),
  • why will HUD Code manufactured homes finish the year at roughly 100,000 (+/-) new affordable housing units in 2018?
  • The reasons are many, and some are unjust.  But part of it is debatably a lack of vision, discipline, and willpower.

 

Facts Reveal Opportunities for Manufactured Housing in Disguise

Ford has recalls too. But Ford is paying to help answer that question of ‘why’ for modular factory-builders.

Ford teamed up with Curbed and The Verge to do videos about the Homes of the Future, which showcases modular building. Those videos are getting hundreds of thousands of views each. Meanwhile, Clayton Homes ‘stigma debunking video’ is flaccid. Clayton’s ‘image’ video is doing much like the ones they and a few others in MHVille made in conjunction with the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) to do ‘storytelling.’ In a word, ineffective. A year later, those so-called efforts by manufactured home companies and the biggest MH trade group have obviously failed at moving the needle.

ICYMI, or need a refresher, see the facts for yourself at the linked report below.

 

Clayton Homes “New” Image Campaign, Surprising Facts Behind Have it Made Stigma Attacking Video

 

How do we know that these videos are essentially ineffective? Simple. It is obvious from new manufactured home sales data.

 

ManufacturedHousingVsTotalCompletedHomesLegacyHousingS1FilingIPODailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Legacy Housing (LEGH) clearly believes in the future of the manufactured home business, because they are raising capital to expand their retail base. So while some accept their fate, others are determined to drive their own brighter destiny, despite issues or excuses given or accepted by others.

 

We periodically remind readers of the data claims made by MHVillage. Let’s take them at face value. If true, it means that millions deliberately surf a site to consider a manufactured home each year. But with millions looking, only 100,000 (+/-) new home buyers are going to actually close in 2018?

That, ladies and gents, is sad.  But it also represents opportunities in disguise.  It means that Clayton, MHI, or MHVillage either can’t or don’t do what they could to sell more homes.  Which implies that operations by independents can thrive in local markets almost anywhere where that the ‘big boys’ fail to perform to their potential.

MostMenAppearnNeverConsideredWhatHouseIsNeedlesslyPoorAllTheirLivesHenryDavidThoreauManufacturedHomeLivingNews

For newcomers to the website not familiar with modern manufactured homes, learn more by clicking the image above or the link here. It only takes a reading articles and watching a few interviews or other videos to debunk the numerous false or outdated notions about modern manufactured homes.

 

Linked below is a new report on how many move every year in the U.S. Properly understood, that moving report suggests that your location could serve a line every week of buyers who want to shop for a manufactured home.  Rephrased, with the correct approach, at almost any local market, sales could profitably soar.

 

MH Marketing Insights – Where are Americans Moving? U.S. Moves, by State – Charts, Video

 

If you keep doing the same things, you will keep getting the same results. That’s reality. It was also a close paraphrasing of what the MHIdea has said (see that, linked below) in their call to create a new pro-growth, ‘let’s make more money honestly’ ‘MH dealers’ association.

 

Giving Thanks for Manufactured Housing Independents, Applauding “MHIdea!”

The #NobleNotMobile movement is IMHO the latest metaphorical slap in the face of MHI and Clayton Homes.  That initiative is being delivered by an MHI member operation.  They are arguably tired of the excuses and waiting for MHI and Clayton to do something more than mere posturing and a purported fig leaf.

MHI’s response to the new National Manufactured Housing Community Owners (NMHCO) trade association is to slam them in writing. What? After over a decade of clearly failed MHI ‘leadership,’ some state associations with chutzpah finally broke away from MHI over their failure to perform. And Nathan Smith, a former MHI Chairman, attacks NMHCO in writing in MHI’s email? That’s galling!

MHI is great at planning their next meeting, and the ones after that. Why? Because those are profit centers for MHI. Their own 990s say as much.

But when it comes to actually engaging and solving the issues that the manufactured home industry’s individual companies face, what’s MHI’s track record?

Again, the answer is found in the shipment data, but there is a silver lining for those with vision and moxie.

 

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National Association of Realtors research routinely reflects the fact that some 85 percent of renters want to own. That’s the American dream. Home ownership, two vehicles in the driveway, some travel, and a nest egg for retirements – these are what most Americans want, and manufactured housing could unlock that dream for millions. Few opportunities in the U.S. are as big as manufactured housing, but it requires work. Or as Sunshine Homes President and CEO John Bostick has said, “Easy Doesn’t Pay Well.”

RenterHouseholdsPercentageofRentersManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

When you consider all of the data and opportunities, almost every market in America could be awash in new manufactured home prospects. Millions of them are well qualified to buy. Isn’t it time to put fear of the big boys, or old habits and thought patterns that keep you trapped, in the rear view mirror?

 

You Must Act Either On Your Own, Or With Others – Because MHI Has Apparently Failed You Repeatedly 

Hey, it’s MHI President and CEO Dick Jennison and their former Chairman, Nathan Smith who’ve said on camera that MHI has to admit that they’ve failed on several occasions. An understatement?

LATonyKovachMHProNewsMHLivingNewsMHINoJournalistPhotoNCCPostedDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Now do you know why MHI has tried to keep our Inside MH video cameras away from anywhere that they publicly speak? Because their own words come back to haunt them, arguably for their years of failures to keep their own words.

The MHI response to such sad facts?

  • Attack the newly emerging trade groups.
  • Trying to undermine us at MHProNews, any way that the folks in Arlington – or their string pullers in Omaha or Knoxville or elsewhere – can.
  • Perhaps because they have no good case, they think smear tactics or some razzle dazzle will make them look better by comparison? Ha!
  • The national shipment data and their video views speak volumes.  The rest are details and commentary.

2018 is Ending, it’s Time for 2019 Planning

You as an individual, or as an independent business, have choices to make as 2018 winds down. You can keep doing what you are doing, and as MHIdea said, you will keep getting what you got.

You can choose to accept the latest excuse or razzle dazzle from the machine in Arlington. But then you have to look at the artificial headwinds that Omaha and Knoxville have arguably paid to create or allowed to exacerbate, as evidenced in recent years in reports linked here and at the end of this article.

Or you can decide to make a difference in your market. Not the nation, not the region. Your focus ought to be in any town or place you have a location.

  • If you don’t have the financial capability, then team up with someone else.  Where there is a will, there is a way.
  • But for the sake of your many would be customers, why buy into the posturing MHI/Knoxville elusive excuse machine? By depressing or failing to address the image/stigma, they’ve logically fuel buyer resistance, and make placement harder in local markets.

 

I’m not saying that UMH’s Sam Landy is right on everything, no one is right 100 percent of the time in business, including moi. But Mr. Landy was dead on when he said that each business is responsible for their own marketing. That same reasoning Sam used tells you that each business is responsible for their own sales results too.

Don’t like your bottom line results? Want to see growth? Then it is up to you to do what it takes in your market to convert dreamers into buyers.  When you learn to do so, you can watch your results flourish.

Toyota and Ford – almost any big automotive or RV dealer near you – are a reminder of what manufactured housing could be in that same market. Our industry was doing over 350% more new home sales 20 years ago than what it is doing today.  These are facts, facts, facts.  They are a wakeup call to you and thousands of your peers.

 

WinnebagoRVWholesaleshipmentDataManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

 

There’s plenty of excuses for not selling more manufactured homes. But excuses are a dime a dozen. You’ve read this far because at some level you sense that this makes sense and is based upon evidence and reason. At some level, you want more for yourself and your location.

Con men don’t tell you they’ve been conning you. As the number of independent producers, retailers, and communities dwindled, MHI kept having their profitable meetings. Imagine how they might laugh in Omaha and Knoxville at the gullibility of thousands of good MH professionals, who keep trusting the ‘leadership’ of MHI, as they keep doing the same things, hoping to get a different result.

SoTheAssociationMHIIsNotThereFortheIndustryUnlesstheinterestsoftheBigBoysJointheIndustry'sMartyLavinMHIAwardWinnerQuoteMHProNews

MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. Earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all our media inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make offer a cogent explanation?

 

DRHortonInvestmentsIn3DPrintingHousingFactoryHomeBuildingDailyBusinessNewsModularManufacturedHomeMHProNews

 

As 2018 winds down, independents have to make a choice.

We once called MHI the Monopolistic Housing Institute. Can you see why? Do you want to be the next, or even the last business eaten by the monopolists operating in MHVille? Or will you stand up for yourself and/or in tandem with others, and be all that your business was meant to be?

Smears, head-fakes, and more meetings by MHI and their purported puppet masters don’t put much money in your pocket.

 

 

The obvious reason they’re arguably attempting to smearing us or others trying to actually do something good is because they can’t or won’t publicly defend their own behavior and track record. There are obviously reasons why federal investigators are onto several of these folks, as recent mainstream media and MHProNews reports have documented.

  • Don’t be their next meal.
  • Don’t be their last meal.
  • Do be all that you can be.

 

 

Toyota and Ford are reminders that you can sell more new manufactured homes than you might think. But you have to look beyond the arguably proven track record of consolidation at the expense of independents that Nathan Smith laughs about in the video posted above.

One last thought. Don’t forget that in Japan, Toyota is building modular homes. Don’t forget that here in the U.S., any automaker could be building housing in short order.

 

ToyotaModularHousingManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNEws

 

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Ford could be testing the waters with their videos.

There are reasons to grasp the big picture.  But one must also act in your own local market(s).

 

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Is MHProNews growing despite push back, or because we are willing to spotlight and push back? Don’t just be an observer. You can make it happen in your market(s), learn more how at this link here.

The correct and honorable marketing and sales training are proven to make a difference. Don’t believe it? Ask Toyota and Ford. They or any big RV or automaker will straighten out any doubts. That’s the lesson that Ford and Toyota ought to be teaching you and your colleagues today. “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Marketing and sales tips, related news, commentary, and analysis.)

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Related References:

Failure, Success and Profitable Truth Detection for Manufactured Housing

 

Machiavellian “Godfather” – Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, Capital, Lending and Crossed Lines in Manufactured Housing

Beautiful, Harsh, Priceless Realties from a Master Builder, Monday Morning Marketing, Sales, Meeting

Failure, Success and Profitable Truth Detection for Manufactured Housing

 

 

 

National New HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Data Summary, September 2018 Analysis

November 8th, 2018 Comments off

NationalNewHUDCodeManufacturedHomeProductionDataSummarySept2018ReportAnalysisDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

The most recent data collected on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reflects a small dip in new manufactured home production.

 

According to information and analysis provided by MHARR, the following are the totals for September 2018.

Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,519 homes in September 2018, a 0.8% decline from the 7,580 HUD Code homes produced during September 2017. Cumulative industry production for 2018 now totals 74,207 homes, an 8.4% increase over the 68,419 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2017,” said MHARR.  Their full report is found at the link below.

 

September 2018 Manufactured Home Production Data Shows Slight Flatline

 

The following graphic reflects the top 10 states, since the date shown.

 

ManufacturedHomeShipmentsSept2018DailyBusinessNEwsMHProNEws

 

Sobering Regional and State Data

As MHProNews alone has spotlighted in national manufactured housing trade media, several states are still sliding in shipment levels.  That includes some of the top producing states in the nation.  The industry’s professionals needs to ask and answer the question in their own market(s), with an affordable housing crisis, how can the industry not be doing much better?

 

New Shipment Data, Top Manufactured Home State, Other MH States Continue Slide

 

ICYMI, or need a refresher, see those 2 new, separate-but-related regional reports and analysis, at the links above and below.

 

Another Top Manufactured Home State is Sliding on New HUD Code Home Shipments, More New Data

 

These are post-production, marketing and sales related issues.

ManufacturedHmeIndustryAchieveGreatPotentialAddressingResolvingCauseCorePerceptionIssuesLATonyKovachQuotePresentationPhoto

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Manufactured Housing Institute Shipment Data, FEMA, an Inside Look

October 18th, 2018 Comments off

ManufacturedHousingInstituteLogoMHILogoShipmentReportAugust2018ModularManufacturedHomeMHProNews

jenny-hodge-manufactured-housing-institute-mhi-national-communities-council-ncc-posted-mhmarketing-sales-management-mhpronews.com

Jenny Hodge, MHI VP and National Communities Council (NCC)

On October 12, Jenny Hodge at the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) released the new HUD Code manufactured housing shipment data report. That report was sent to the Daily Business News on MHProNews for analysis and commentary.

Hodge is doing her job. As readers learned from yesterday’s “#Me Too” report, the reins are held tightly at the Manufactured Housing Institute offices. So, this analysis should not be construed as a critique of Hodge.

ICYMI, or need a refresher as to how this relates to a relatively mundane task of providing shipment numbers, yesterday’s inside look at the Arlington offices is linked below.

Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), Women, #MeToo and Insider Information

Hodge began her report with the headline, “9,091 New HUD Code Homes Shipping in August 2018 First 9,000+ Month since 2007.”

It was a great month for production!” is a quote shared from sources which said that Hodge’s point in her headline was underscored by Pam Brillhart, Project Coordinator of Federal and State Programs, Institute for Building Technology and Safety (IBTS). IBTS gathers the data for the federal government, and provides them to HUD and others as a contracted service.

Rephrased, IBTS gathers data, and MHI is one of the sources that obtains that information from them for a fee.

Indeed, the industry has some cause to ‘celebrate’ rising shipment totals. But those totals need to be fully grasped, in the context to the reality that they are still at historically low levels. There were individual producers of pre-code mobile homes and post HUD Code manufactured homes that used to produce that many or more homes per year.

Hodge said that, “In August, 133 plants representing 37 corporations reported production data which is the same as July 2018.”

Compare that with the MHI production company chart history, shown below. It is 73 fewer HUD Code builders than started in 1990. That is fewer HUD Code builders than when Berkshire Hathaway entered manufactured housing in 2003.

Rephrased, manufactured housing was down on the mat. There were individuals who were long time veteran professionals in 2008-2010 that thought the manufactured housing industry was going to go the way of the “buggy whip.” They believed that industry was dying.

Thankfully, that proved wrong.  But the industry was brought to its knees, and that resulted in “consolidations.” Several of those who have sold to Clayton, for example, have told MHProNews that they didn’t get much for their businesses.  Isn’t that in keeping with Warren Buffett’s dictum that he loves a bargain?

Let’s look deeper.

Of the 9,091 homes shipped in August, there were no homes designated as FEMA units,” an apt point because FEMA artificially gooses the number. And as sources are telling MHProNews, there appears to be a move at FEMA away from the use of manufactured homes as much as possible, in favor of RVs or other temporary rental lodging options.

Manufactured Housing Shipments “The SAAR” 

In conventional as well as manufactured housing, there is a SAAR. Here is how Hodge’s report read.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of shipments was 98,104 in August 2018, up 5.8% from the adjusted rate of 92,694 in July 2018. The SAAR corrects for normal seasonal variations and projects annual shipments based on the current monthly total.”

Put differently, there were MHI producers who last year expected to do some 107,000 (+/-) new HUD Code manufactured homes. Modular, tiny and other non-HUD Code factory built housing product would be in addition to those totals.

In August 2018, new manufactured home shipments increased 7.9% to 9,091 homes as compared to the 8,425 homes shipped in August 2017,” per MHI’s info from Hodge. “Total shipments for August 2018 are higher by 2,340 homes when compared to the prior month of July. Compared with August 2017, the trend is positive with shipments of single-section homes up by 6.0% and multi-section homes up by 9.5%. Total floors shipped in August 2018 increased 8.5% to 14,174 compared to August 2017.”

What Does it Really Mean?

Look at states like Michigan or Florida, where sizable numbers of units designed to be rentals are being shipped into manufactured home communities. Who else in manufactured housing trade publishing is telling the industry’s independents that factories see a warning sign in the data. What happens when shipments into communities slow down? Given that few new communities are being built, if zoning, finance, acceptance and other issues aren’t successfully addressed, in 3 to 5 years, the industry could plateau.

Winners and Losers, 5 Midwestern States, Manufactured Home Shipment Breakdown

Here is the HUD Code shipment data for August 2018, by state.

ManufacturedHousingHomesUnitsProductionByStateAug2019IBTSDailyBusinessNEwsMHProNews

Look at the state production data, to realize just how low the numbers can be.

ManufacturedHousingHomesUnitsProductionByStateAug2019IBTSDailyBusinessNEwsMHProNews

Then, recall that RVs are blowing manufactured housing away.

RVsshipmentsTrailedMH1998WinnebagoDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Dick Jennison and Lesli Gooch were described as “control freaks” in yesterday’s report by MHI office insiders.

ManufacturedHomeMHShipments1990-2017DailybusinessNewsManufacturedHousingMHProNews

As in any office or operation, there are people at MHI that have formed personal relationships. There is chatter outside of the office, not just in it. Even ‘lower level’ staff can hear and share insights with the operation’s several ‘vice presidents.’

Figure1MobileManufacturedHomeSalesSHipmentsVsExistingingNewHouseSalesManufacturedHousingiinudstryDataMHProNews

There are a growing number of industry voices that believe that BH/CMH and MHI have by various action/inaction has kept manufactured home sales at historically low levels. Evidence? See Related Reports and videos, linked below, which quotes and cites BH, MHI, CMH, 21st Mortgage Corp, and other sources.

It is human nature. People who are “bullied” in an office find ways of dealing with that kind of harsh or “hostile work atmosphere.

One more reminder before closing this report. Sources said what industry readers should already know. The marching orders for MHI comes from the MHI Executive Committee. When one wonders why MHI spent years chasing after Preserving Access, and then abandoned half that goal in favor of the inclusion in S 2011, those marching orders come from the Executive Committee.

There are voices from within MHI’s membership that have asked if it isn’t a conflict of interest for Clayton Homes – which has site built housing and is part of Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate that has deep real estate interests – is exerting influence to keep production at low levels. See the related reports, further below.

Then ask yourself when RVs are roaring, and MH is snoring, why Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison was trying to tell the industry that it should grow slowly? Who does that benefit?

MHARR’s report on the same data was published earlier, and can be found at the link below.

Strong HUD Code Production Growth in August 2018

More in an upcoming report from inside Arlington, VA’s office at MHI in the hours and days ahead. “We Provide, You Decide.”  © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Reminder to Clayton Homes. Cavco Industries, and Skyline Champion Employees

Media Claims New Story/ICON Builds 3D Printed Housing for $4000, Fact Check & Analysis

October 10th, 2018 Comments off

 

MediaNewStoryICONBuilds3DPrintedHousing$4000FactCheckAnalysisDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

Different construction methods exist – or emerge – for a variety of reasons.

 

3D printing of housing, for example, is being tested globally. Some say 3D printed housing is the obvious answer for building housing on the lunar landscape, or other planets.  “It sounds crazy, but it would be a lot crazier to fly sheet rock and 2×4’s to Mars,” Jason Ballard, ICON CEO per Business Insider.

JasonBallardPhotoCofounderCEOIconTreehouseICONLogoDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsLogo400There are also reasons why independent trade publishing which fact-checks is necessary for the factory-built-housing industry.

When there is a buzz about:

  • alternative construction,
  • emerging, or
  • automated technologies then

investors, homebuyers, policy wonks, and others may ask – ‘why should we mess with HUD Code manufactured homes?’

So, it is obviously an important issue to millions.

With that backdrop, mentally place yourself in the shoes of an affordable housing advocate, hedge fund manager, or housing seeker, and then read the following.

photo

Mainstream media outlet Business Insider (BI) ran what is at best a dubious headline, “These 3D-printed homes can be built for less than $4,000 in just 24 hours.”

The videos by third party are posted by the Daily Business News on MHProNews, and were not part of the BI article.

 

Here’s how that BI article opens:

Printable homes represent the latest wave in construction, but they’re not always cheap to build.

Earlier this year, Branch Technology, an architectural startup,developed a prototype of a 1,000-square-foot 3D-printed home that would cost about $300,000 — a price too high to be considered a solution to the global housing crisis.

In March, New Story, a housing nonprofit based in San Francisco, and ICON, a construction-technology company that designs 3D printers, unveiled what they said was “the first permitted, 3D-printed home in America”: a 350-square-foot structure that cost about $10,000 and took just 48 hours to build.

At the time, the printer — known as the Vulcan — was running at only 25% speed. That gave the companies confidence that they could build a 600- to 800-square-foot home in just 24 hours for $4,000 or less. Before using 3D-printing technology, it took New Story eight months to build 100 homes, each costing about $6,000.”  Their article is found at this link here.

Note that the printer for these 3D printed housing units is portable, weighing about 2,000 pounds.

Here’s a news video that serves to make the point on why fact-checks and common-sense analysis are not only useful, but necessary. Note how the still emphasizes that same $4,000 price?  It’s the same figure that BI and others in mainstream media are reports on ICON’s and the New Story’s non-profit efforts are using.

 

But if you listen carefully, ICON’s founder says that the price is for the wall system and framing, not the systems of the house, like HVAC, plumbing, electrical, etc.

Another news outlet said that an ICON project in El Salvador would cost $1,000,000 for 100 homes. Presumably, that is the price of building it there, not in the U.S. If so, that’s $10,000 per ‘tiny house.’

FYI – MHProNews reached out to ICON with questions about what is and is not included in the cost, and received no reply. We plan another outreach in reaction to this article.

So, the Daily Business News turned to another 3D printing builder for their take on this ICON related pricing claims. Here’s what Don Musilli, CEO of 3D Build Systems LLC, Englewood, Florida told MHProNews this week.

 

3D Builder Sounds Off on ICON, Media Claims

Tony: The prices stated with these printed homes are materials cost. We can print an exterior and interior wall in a 1,000 sq. ft. home for under $10,000.00 materials cost. So these numbers are not really indicative of the sell price of the home plus this home has no HVAC and minimal lighting. No toilet, sink, etc.,” said Musilli.

We [3D Build Systems] believe we can produce a 1,400.00 sq. ft. home, complete, ready to move in for around $100,000.00. That is more reasonable and more accurate,” Musilli said in an electronic statement.

One more point,” added Musilli. “It is our goal to attempt to complete the homes in 30 days or less. We are working on the process for wiring, plumbing and installation of the split heating/cooling system to be done as quickly as possible. The finish is just the concrete wall with a stucco like finish.”

If Musilli’s pricing comes to pass, that would be $71.42 per square foot. That’s considerably less than prior estimates for the same sized home of about $100,000.

 

Robotics, 3D Printed Housing, Imminent Challengers for Manufactured Homes, Modular Housing – 3D Build Systems CEO Don Musilli

 

As has been noted above and previously, to achieve more affordable housing, there should be an openness to new as well as proven construction methods, including HUD Code manufactured homes, on an equal opportunity basis.

 

Fresh Facts, Figures, Future of Affordable Housing -Comparisons- Conventional Site-Built v Mobile/Manufactured Home Industry Data

 

 

What Does the Emerging 3D Printing Mean to Manufactured Housing?

A manufactured home industry veteran told MHProNews today that the industry has a “once in a lifetime” chance to get it right.  The need for affordable housing is so great, and there are numerous media sources that are shedding positive light on HUD Code manufactured homes.  One of several examples from this year is found below.

 

Bloomberg “New Home for $90,000? Manufactured Housing Is Making a Comeback” Reveals MH Media Challenge

 

Be that as it may, it is challenges from emerging technologies that are among the reasons our publisher repeatedly warns the industry’s independents against what he sees as the “artificially caused challenges” to HUD Code manufactured home builders, retailers, communities and other industry professionals. One of many such challenges are spotlighted in the article linked below, which can be read later for greater understanding of the issues.

 

Rumble over Anti-MH Law-State Association, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), Clayton Homes, and MHARR

 

The Manufactured Housing InstituteMHI – and their mouth-pieces keep calling for ‘unity’ in the industry.  That’s a potentially loaded term,” says L. A. ‘Tony’ Kovach.  “Someone can unite an industry by consolidating it. Uniting an industry could in some cases be construed as an antitrust issue, as their own handout says. That said, the point should be that a few players that have purportedly manipulated regulators, aspects of media engagement, public officials and capital could have over played their hand. In the meantime, that process has arguably cost thousands of industry professionals to lose their businesses to closure or a cheaper sale than a normal market condition would have provided them.”

The other side of the coin,” said Kovach, “is that MHARR, MHI and state association like Texas did pull together in a way that benefited everyone.  That should be the test for ‘unity.’ Does it benefit consumers? Does it benefit businesses of all sizes?  Does it work to the advantage of taxpayers? That’s kind of authentic unity is worthwhile. So, the word ‘unity’ must be carefully parsed.  Some unity is good, but other kinds of unity is akin to conquest.”

LATonyKovachGoodBipartisanshipShouldalwaysBepredicatedBenefitallhonestindustrymembersnotslectfewquote

The comment above was said with respect to another recent topic, but relates to this issue too.

MHProNews will be doing a special report on that topic, to provide an example of how ‘good unity’ has worked before, and can work again.

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“Challenges to Obtaining Manufactured Home Financing,” Urban Institute Report Fact Check, Analysis

July 4th, 2018 Comments off

UrbanInstituteLogoChallengestoObtainingManufacturedHomeFinancingDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Is the Urban Institute (UI) attempting to use their “research” to blunt the manufactured housing industry’s steady yet modest recovery?  If so, why?

 

It’s a debatable point that could be made after a close analysis of the UI nonprofits’ most recent – and once again, problematic – manufactured home industry related research.  The prior report and analysis on manufactured housing, linked below, can be read later for greater depth of understanding on their latest research.

“Follow the Money” – Controversial Urban Institute Report on Manufactured Housing

In the Urban Institute’s (UI) latest report, attached below, Laurie Goodman and Bhargavi Ganesh are the only two researchers with bylines in their June 2018 document.

Both Goodman and Ganesh were part of a quartet of co-authors who in January 2018 signed onto a report entitled, “Manufactured homes could ease the affordable housing crisis. So why are so few being made?” Edward Golding and Alanna McCargo were not named in the UI’s latest June report. More on that prior research will be touched on later, below.

 

The two 2018 UI reports are similar in this respect. It isn’t so much the UI statements, but rather:

  • what they didn’t say, which is significant,
  • and how what they did say is phrased in troubling ways, starting with the headline.

Those sum up the issues for manufactured housing professionals, many investors, and intelligent prospective buyers. The one clear positive that should be noted is that they writers used the industry’s homes correct terminology.

Beyond that…? Let’s look at specifics.

 

Imagine that You’re a Home Buyer, Considering a Manufactured Home…

In the single-family housing market, most homeowners take out a real estate loan or mortgage to finance their home. But in the manufactured housing market, most consumers rely on chattel loans, or property loans, which typically have less favorable loan terms and fewer consumer protections than mortgages. The high costs of chattel financing can dissuade people from purchasing a manufactured home, contributing to the relatively small number of homes shipped,” stated Goodman and Ganesh in their opening few lines.

There were 240,000 homes shipped each year from 1977 to 1995, but only 93,000 homes shipped in 2017. This report examines the challenges to obtaining affordable financing for a new manufactured home,” concludes their opening paragraph.

Rephrased, they are telling media, other researchers, and those savvy shoppers that might read such a report:

  • Manufactured home sales have declined dramatically;
  • Buyers are being dissuaded by high cost chattel loans;
  • Starting with the headline, they make financing a manufactured home sound like “Challenges;”
  • admit to not considering the mitigation of closing costs in their evaluation, saying “Moreover, we have not accounted for differences in closing costs. The up-front costs of a chattel loan might be lower.”

Nor do they mention the hassles that retailers report when a significant percentage of real estate loans may not meet appraisal. The causes? Because appraisers may be ignorant about manufactured housing, or are otherwise hamstrung by guidance which relies on a lack of “comps,” plus other factors that keep manufactured homes in mortgage deals from getting a fair appraisal.

UrbanInstituteChallengestoManufacturedHomelendingDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

While some 80 percent of mortgage loans make appraisal, said an FHA lender to MHProNews, that still  means that 20 percent don’t.

That appraisal hassle – that ‘roll of the dice’ that may cause a lost sale – causes some retailers to shy away from mortgage loans. Having lost sales for that reason, say some retailers to MHProNews, they are not as enthusiastic about that potential outcome.

Are those factors for the decline in land home mortgages made in manufactured housing since the early 2000s? That’s the kind of question that serious, dispassionate “evidence based” researcher might do.

But UI’s Goodman and Ganesh don’t even raise those issue, nor others.

Who did they interview for this? It’s another unanswered question.

That said, in the prior UI report in January, sources at the nonprofit indicated that Berkshire Hathaway brands, and the Manufactured Housing Institute (NHI) were consulted. If that occurred again this time, what did those sources say? With a week now elapsed since this UI report, why aren’t Berkshire brands, or MHI, raising concerns like those noted herein publicly?

UrbanInstituteLogoChallengestoManufacturedHousingFinancingReportJune2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

 

More UI Report Wrinkles

It isn’t until page 4 of their report that the pair from UI mention another reason why buyers may legitimately want a personal property – home only, or chattel loan. That prudential reason? “Moreover, some states have a lower property tax on personal property than on real property.”

  • don’t consider the potential savings in real estate taxes vs. personal property taxes found
  • and they even failed to clearly link to their somewhat more positive, but still problematic report published in January.

For a report that is supposed to examine manufactured home financing, they don’t mention:

  • FHA Title 1,
  • the USDA’s Rural Development program,
  • VA loans,
  • or the role Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) could be making to lower rates via their Duty to Serve (DTS) mandate.

Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) Pressing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Fully Engage on Duty To Serve (DTS)

Nor did UI mention that the:

  • Government Accountability Office (GAO),
  • Fannie Mae,
  • and other researchers found that even with higher interest rates, manufactured homes are generally still lower in cost than rent, and significantly lower than conventional housing.
ManufacturedHomesGAO2014ReprotCompareApartmentsSingleFamilySiteBuiltHousingManufacturedHomesMHLivingNews

Any serious researcher could find this information, which is from the GAO report on manufactured housing, and is found on MHLivingNews . https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/researchers-shake-up-american-dream-rent-vs-buy-ken-johnson-florida-atlantic-university-exclusive-to-manufacturedhomelivingnews/ So why didn’t the UI researchers find and report on this in their latest report?

Interviews with educated, savvy homeowners on MHLivingNews indicated that when they did their own math, they found that manufactured homes made good sense. Again, UI fails to mention any such favorable companions.

 

UI Acknowledgement – A Head Fake?

Longtime, devoted Daily Business News readers will recall that MHProNews took the Urban Institute to task for not disclosing their funders, trustee, and other apparent conflicts of interest in their January, 2018 report.

Was the Urban Institute Misled, Duped, or Part of a Manufactured Housing Industry Scam?

Perhaps for that reason, UI added an acknowledgement in this report, and used the following disclaimers, shown in brown text below.

Acknowledgments

The Housing Finance Policy Center (HFPC) was launched with generous support at the leadership level from the Citi Foundation and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Additional support was provided by The Ford Foundation and The Open Society Foundations.

Ongoing support for HFPC is also provided by the Housing Finance Innovation Forum, a group of organizations and individuals that support high-quality independent research that informs evidence- based policy development. Funds raised through the forum provide flexible resources, allowing HFPC to anticipate and respond to emerging policy issues with timely analysis. This funding supports HFPC’s research, outreach and engagement, and general operating activities.

This brief was funded by these combined sources. We are grateful to them and to all our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. 

The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders…”

Convenient? Coincidence?

First. Money is fungible, as an industry attorney noted to MHProNews. To say that prior Berkshire Hathaway or Gates Foundation money has no impact on UI is debatable, or perhaps even laughable.

But equally noteworthy is the presence of the George Soros backed Open Foundation Money in this project. How many other intersections are there between Soros, Buffett, Gates and their interests?

 

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Summary

Summed up, the oversights and omissions by UI are stunning.

The issue of lending falls in the post-production sphere in the association world.

So arguably it is equally stunning that MHI, if they were serious about growing sales or financing options – or the Berkshire brands – haven’t weighed in – per Google search at this date and time – to publicly correct the misleading narrative forged by these ‘researchers.’

Pray tell, why not? Are they serious about promoting accurate facts about the manufactured home industry?

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Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies 2018 – Affordability, Manufactured Homes, and Modular Housing Report

June 28th, 2018 Comments off

HarvardJointCenterForHousingStudiesLogoStateofNation'sHousing2018ManufacturedHomesDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

Since 1988, our annual State of the Nation’s Housing report has provided an overview of housing market conditions in the U.S.,” said Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) to the Daily Business News via a press release.

 

As we mark the 30th anniversary, this year’s report not only examines recent trends, but assesses whether and how key metrics have changed over the last three decades and serves as a yardstick to measure whether or not the nation has met its goal of producing decent and affordable homes for all,” said the JCHS statement.

 

JCHS’ Executive Summary

The inaugural State of the Nation’s Housing report in 1988 noted that the majority of Americans were well housed and some conditions have improved since then. More than 40 million units have been built over the past three decades, accommodating 27 million new households, replacing older homes, and improving the quality of the nation’s housing stock,” said the Harvard researchers’ statement.

Homeownership rates among young adults are even lower than in 1988, and the share of cost-burdened renters is significantly higher, with almost half of all renters paying more than 30 percent of their income for housing,” said the 2018 JCHS report.

Soaring housing costs are largely to blame. The national median rent rose 20 percent faster than overall inflation between 1990 and 2016 and the median home price rose 41 percent faster,” per the JCHS.  “While better housing quality accounts for some of the increased costs, higher costs for building materials and labor, limited productivity gains, increased land costs, new regulatory barriers, and growing income inequality all played major roles as well.”

To help busy professionals manage the length of the 44 page report – and keep it as relevant and useful as possible for manufactured housing industry professionals, investors, and researchers – what will follow are a series of unedited ‘pull quotes’ from the JCHS report.

Fair warning. Modular housing gets very little attention, essentially a modest mention.

HUD Code manufactured housing fares significantly better. Still, there’s not a lot of details in what follows that a well informed MHProNews reader wouldn’t already know.

So why bother?

 

4 Reasons for Factory-Built Home Pros to Read This JCHS Report:

The above noted, why read this? Simply because it’s a million-dollar road map for a variety of reasons, but let’s note 4 of them:

 

  • As noted, the university level data is like a road map – a gold-mine of the opportunities – for manufactured housing or other factory-crafted housing professionals to explore. Almost every page is a description of possible opportunities for the industry.
  • The State of the Nation’s Housing 2018 gives an independent review of data compiled by a respected institution – Harvard – has been doing for 3 decades. Rephrased, it has credibility.
  • It largely confirms or clarifies dozens of reports previously shared on MHProNews from a variety of other sources.
  • It will be an anchor for several planned reports by MHProNews that manufactured housing advocates, investors and others will be able to rely upon.

What will follow are pull quotes, without commentary. The headings will often be our phrasing, not JCHS’. While the Daily Business News will skip some sections, the meatiest material for our audience is covered in the quotated statements below.

The 2018 JCHS entire report, complete with an array of graphics and charts, will be provided at the end of this article.  We’ll conclude with a hyper-brief analysis of our key takeaway from the document. Let’s dive in.

StateoftheNationsHousing2018HarvardJCHSReportCoverLogoManufacturedModularHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

Housing Costs

“Another factor is the low level of single-family construction. Despite six consecutive years of increases, single-family starts stood at just 849,000 units in 2017, well below the long-run annual average of 1.1 million. Indeed, only 610,000 single-family homes were added to the stock annually in 2008–2017…

Along with limited land, respondents to builder surveys cite rising input costs as adding to the difficulty of constructing entry-level homes. As a result, the share of smaller homes (under 1,800 square feet) built each year fell from 50 percent in 1988 to 36 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2017. Of this latest drop, 9 percentage points occurred in 2010–2013 alone…

InventoriesofSingleFamilyHousingDown2017HarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHOusingDailyBusinessNewsMHproNews

Unlike single-family homebuilding, multifamily construction ramped up quickly after the crash as rental demand surged. From a low of 109,000 units in 2009, construction of multifamily units peaked at 397,000 starts in 2015 and accounted for more than half the gains in housing starts over that period. However, the multifamily construction wave is now moderating, with starts down 1 percent in 2016 and 10 percent in 2017…

This slowdown comes in response to both weaker overall rental demand and increasing slack at the upper end of the market…

Indeed, the cumulative effect of strong growth in housing costs and modest gains in household incomes has left nearly half of today’s renters with cost burdens, including a quarter with severe burdens. The rising cost of homes for sale also raises downpayment and closing costs, making it more difficult for individuals and families to make the transition to owning…

TotalHousingStarts2017SingleFamilyMultieFamilyHOusingSalesHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNews

National efforts are necessary to close the affordability gap. Housing policymakers have many opportunities to address the cost side of the equation, including the increasing size and quality of homes; lack of productivity improvements in the residential construction sector; escalating costs of labor, building materials, and land; and barriers created by a complex and restrictive regulatory system. However, tackling this broad mix of conditions will require collaboration of the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in a comprehensive strategy that fosters innovation in the design, construction, financing, and regulation of housing…

But even if successful, these efforts will not produce decent, afford- able homes for the millions of households that simply cannot pay enough to cover the costs of producing that housing. For these families and individuals, there will always be a need for public subsidies. The federal government’s failure to respond adequately to this large and growing challenge puts millions of households at risk of housing instability and the threats it poses to basic health and safety. Many state and local governments are doing their part to expand assistance, but a more robust federal response is essential to any meaningful progress in combatting the nation’s housing affordability crisis…”

 

HighLevelsMultiFamilyHousingHarvardJCHSManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUsinessNewsMHProNews

Page 8 Before Manufactured Housing Gets Mentioned

(Bold Added for Emphasis. one editorial note is made)

“Nonetheless, entry-level housing still accounts for a small share of new construction. Only 163,000 small single-family homes were completed in 2016, or 22 percent of single-family construction— down significantly from the 33 percent share averaged in 1999–2007. Moreover, manufactured home shipments totaled just 93,000 units in 2017, far below the 291,000 annual average in the 1990s and even the 137,000 annual average in the 2000s

ConstructionofModestsizedHomesRemainsLimitedHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedModularHousingDailyBuisnessNewsMHPronEws

The only JCHS graphic that specifically mentions manufactured housing.

“Modest-sized homes are considerably more affordable for first-time and middle-market buyers. According to the Survey of Construction, the median price for a small home sold in 2016 was $191,700. The average sales price for a new manufactured home in 2017 was even lower, at $72,000. By comparison, the median price for all other single-family homes was $324,700 in 2016…

“With few additions of smaller units, most modestly priced homes are found in the existing housing stock. Indeed, small homes make up nearly half of single-family homes. In 2015, there were 37.3 million single-family homes under 1,800 square feet. The stock of small homes is generally older, with nearly two-thirds (65 percent) built before 1980 compared with 43 percent of larger homes…”

Manufactured housing is prevalent primarily in the South, where some 58 percent of the 6.6 million units nationwide are located. Another 21 percent are in the West, 14 percent in the Midwest, and just 7 percent in the Northeast. Nearly two-thirds of manufactured housing shipments between 2009 and 2017 were also to the South.”

Daily Business News Notice: A more common figure used for all pre-HUD Code and post-HUD Code MH is roughly 8.8 million units.  What possibly explains the difference?  Because about 1 out of 5 MH are mobile homes, not manufactured homes.  We’ve reached out to Harvard and ask for that number to be clarified, and will update once received.

As a result, manufactured homes make up 9 percent of the total housing stock in the South, with especially large shares in South Carolina (16 percent) and in West Virginia and Mississippi (14 percent each). While the share in other regions is only 4 percent, a few states also have high concentrations of manufactured housing, including New Mexico (17 percent) and Wyoming (13 percent). Manufactured housing also provides 14 percent of homes in non-metro communities, more than double the share in the country as a whole.”

YoungAdultsFarLessLikelyMoveThanPriorGenerationsHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNEws

4 Prime Factors Hamper Housing Growth

“First is the shortage of skilled workers. In a 2017 survey of homebuilders, 82 percent of respondents cited the cost and availability of labor as a significant problem…

Second, the cost of building materials has risen…”

Third, developed land has become scarcer. Metrostudy data for 98 metro areas indicate that the number of vacant developed lots declined from 1.26 million in 2008 to just 802,000 in 2017…

Finally, local zoning and other land use regulations can reduce the amount of new construction by constraining the type and density of new housing allowed…

MillenialsMovingtoSomeManufuredHomeFriendlyStatesHarvardJCHS2018ManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNEws

 

Modular housing, constructed in factory conditions before being transported and assembled on site, could provide at least part of the answer. Including the value of land, the median price for a new modular unit was $217,200 in 2016—nearly $90,000 less than for a new site-built home. To date, however, homebuilders have been slow to adopt this innovation, with only 15,000 modular homes added in 2016. Indeed, modular housing has never accounted for more than 4 percent of single-family construction in the United States. By comparison, modular housing accounts for 9 percent of new homes in Germany, 12–16 percent in Japan, and 20 percent in the Netherlands.”

HomeOwnershipRates1983to2017RisingIn2017HarvardJCHSManufacturedModularHomeIndustryDailyBuisnessNewsMHproNews

It is interesting to note that the rate of home ownership began to rise during the time after the 2016 election. Several confidence surveys have reflected growing consumer and business confidence, which has yielded more home purchases vs. renting.

 

Housing – The Outlook

“The housing sector faces significant challenges in the short term. Labor shortages, rising materials costs, limited land availability, and land-use regulations are all holding down growth in new residential construction. Meanwhile, inventories of existing homes for sale are at all-time lows, pushing up prices and making homebuying more difficult, especially for low- and moderate-income households…

With its oldest members now in their late 20s and early 30s, the millennial generation is forming new households in greater numbers and moving to different states in search of opportunity. At the same time, nearly 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day, raising the average age of US households. Although wealth is growing, homeowners and those at the top have captured most of the gains, and millions of households have little or no wealth. Going forward, immigration will become an increasingly large, albeit unpredictable, source of population growth and therefore housing demand…”

HarvardJCHS2018AffordabilityByMonthlyPaymentsByMetroAreaManufacturedHousingIndustryDailybuisnessNewsMHproNews

Immigration and Housing

“According to Census Bureau data, the number of foreign- born households more than doubled from 7.7 million in 1990 to 17.8 million in 2016, accounting for more than a third of the growth in households over that time…”

 

Housing and Minorities

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“Minorities made up half of the nation’s low-wealth households in 2016, up from 39 percent in 1995. They also accounted for more than three-quarters of the growth in low-wealth households between 1995 and 2016. Indeed, as the number of minority house- holds increased over this long span, the shares with low wealth remained consistently high at 52 percent for blacks, 49 percent for Hispanics, and 30 percent for Asians and other minorities. Meanwhile, the share among whites also remained steady at a relatively low 22 percent…”

 

Interstate Migration

“Resuming past trends, total net domestic migration to the Southeastern states of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas rebound- ed from a low of 86,000 in 2009 to 317,000 in 2017. Meanwhile, domestic outflows from the Northeast and Midwest continued to increase in 2017. The three states with the largest net domestic outflows—California, Illinois, and New York—lost 443,000 residents to domestic migration in 2017, more than double the 207,000 net losses in 2011…”

 

Homeownership Rates

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“The national homeownership rate ticked up in 2017 for the first time in 13 years, buoyed by growth in the number of homeowner households. Despite the ongoing rise in home prices, low interest rates have helped to keep monthly housing costs relatively affordable for new homeowners. Still, the upward climb of interest rates, limited inventory of homes for sale, widespread increases in student loan debt, and insufficient savings for downpayments raise important concerns about the ability of many potential buyers to access homeownership…”

 

 

Rising Prices but Relative Affordability

“Continuing a steady upward climb, the nominal median sales price of existing homes increased from $233,800 in 2016 to $247,200 in 2017…

 

In the high-cost Los Angeles market, for example, a household with the area median income would be able to afford the monthly mortgage payments on only 11 percent of recently sold homes. And because these homes include studio apartments and other small units suitable for only one or two people, the affordable options for families are even more limited. By contrast, even a low- income (bottom-quartile) household in Pittsburgh would be able to afford 26 percent of recently sold homes. Such dramatic differences in affordability contribute to large disparities in homeownership across metro areas. Of the nation’s 50 largest metros, Pittsburgh has the highest homeownership rate of 70 percent, while Los Angeles has the lowest rate of 48 percent…”

 RealHomePricesRisingsince2000HarvardJCHS2018manufacturedmodularhousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMhpronEws

Financing

“The FHA and VA shares of home purchase loan originations have also leveled out in recent years following a significant jump during the foreclosure crisis (Figure 24). Indeed, even as the number of 1–4 unit, first-lien, owner-occupied mortgage originations rose from 2.7 million in 2013 to 3.5 million in 2016, the FHA share remained near 20–25 percent. While down sharply from the high of 41 percent in 2009, the FHA share is still well above the 6 percent low in 2005. The VA share held at 10 percent in 2016, up from 2 percent in 2005. Meanwhile, the conventional share of originations stayed close to 60 percent…”

harvardJCHS2018LowestIncomeRentersOutnumbersupplyTheyCanAffordManufacturedHOusingIndustryDailyBuisnessNewsMHproNews

As a reminder to MHProNews readers, the GAO reported that manufactured housing is less costly than typical rent, so this type of data, while troubling for the nation, is an opportunity for manufactured housing industry professionals and investors.

Rent vs. Own

“…However, survey evidence points to continued strong interest in homeowning. The 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations found that 67 percent of renters would prefer or strongly prefer to own homes assuming they had the financial resources to do so. Only 19 percent would prefer or strongly prefer to rent. Moreover, 61 percent of renters think buying a home in their ZIP code today is a somewhat or very good investment, and just 12 percent believe it is a somewhat or very bad investment…

The Survey of Consumer Finances shows that the median net worth of renters was just $5,000 in 2016, about the same in real terms as in both 1995 and 2007. Moreover, fewer than one in three renters had more than $10,000 in financial assets, and only 21 percent had more than $25,000. As a result, only a small share would be able to cover even a 3.5 percent downpayment and 2 percent closing costs on a median- priced home, which amounted to $13,596 in 2016…”

 RentalHousingIncrasesModerateHarvardJCHManufacturedModularHOusingIndustryDailyBUisnessNewsMHproNews

Rentals

“There are signs that the rental market is cooling, although primarily at the upper end. The number of multifamily starts declined slightly over the past year, and expanding supplies of new luxury apartments pushed up vacancy rates, helping to slow rent growth. Although the number of high-income renters is still growing, lower rentership rates among key groups—particularly younger households—may indicate a turn toward homeownership. Meanwhile, the supply of rentals affordable to the nation’s lowest- income households continues to shrink…

The Survey of Construction indicates that nearly half of the rentals completed in 2016 were in buildings with 50 or more units, compared with just 13 percent in 1999. Most other new units were in buildings with at least five apart- ments. In addition, 86 percent of new apartments in 2016 were in properties with swimming pools, up from 69 percent in 1990. Some 89 percent of new units in 2016 also had in-unit laundry services, significantly higher than the 61 percent share of existing units with this amenity…

Both rising construction costs and added amenities have pushed up asking rents. The nominal asking rent for new apartments increased average rents for new units in certain major metros (including Chicago, Miami, and Washington, DC) were $2,000 or higher.”

HarvardJCHS2018appreciationofRentalPropertiesVsSingleFamilyHouisngDailyBusinessNewsMHproNEws

Several sources have pointed to appreciation in manufactured housing too, but that isn’t addressed in this report.  There is a marked rise in the value of manufactured home land-lease communities in recent years, but that is also not mentioned in this report..

Easing at the High End of Rentals

“The national vacancy rate for all rental units averaged 7.2 percent in the year ending in the first quarter of 2018, up 0.3 percentage point from a year earlier. But the rate for rental units built since 2010, as measured by the Housing Vacancy Survey, hit 21 percent in 2017. While not unprecedented compared with the rates for similarly new units in 2007 and 2008, this high vacancy rate far exceeds the 15 percent reported a year earlier…”

 

Shortfall in Lower Cost Rentals

“The nation’s supply of low-cost rental housing shrank significantly after the Great Recession and has remained essentially unchanged since 2015. A National Low Income Housing Coalition study found that for every 100 extremely low-income renters, only 35 rental units were affordable and available in 2016—a nationwide shortfall of more than 7.2 million units (Figure 29). Conditions for very low-income renter households were little better, with 56 affordable and available rentals per 100 households…”

 

Housing Cost Burdens

“More than 38 million US households have housing cost burdens, leaving little income left to pay for food, healthcare, and other basic necessities. As it is, federal housing assistance reaches only a fraction of the large and growing number of low-income households in need. Between the shortage of subsidized housing and the ongoing losses of low-cost rentals through market forces, low-income households have increasingly few housing options. Meanwhile, the rising incidence and intensity of natural disasters pose new threats to the housing stocks of entire communities…

About a third of the households in metropolitan areas struggle to find affordable housing (Figure 35)…

 

Threats To The Affordable Supply

“The National Low Income Housing Coalition reports that the gap between supply and demand for rental units affordable and avail- able to very low-income households is 7.7 million…”

 

Homelessness

“HUD’s Annual Homeless Assessment Report shows that nearly 554,000 people were living in shelters or on the street on a given night in January 2017…”

 

State and Local Initiatives

“According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition database, about 100 state and local programs provide either tenant-based assistance or capital support for affordable rental housing development…”

 

Housing Losses to Natural Disasters

“The 16 major disaster events in 2017 caused a record-setting $306 billion in damages. These events caused destruction of hundreds of thousands of homes and widespread displacement of households across California, Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas. In Puerto Rico alone, storms destroyed or severely damaged an estimated 472,000 housing units…

FEMA direct assistance filled some of the gaps for households without flood insur- ance, providing financial help for 1.6 million households…

The rebuilding process has its own challenges. The three states with significant disaster damage last year—California, Florida, and Texas—have large populations of undocumented immigrants, households that are unlikely to apply for assistance in fear of depor- tation. In Puerto Rico, relief is complicated by the fact that much of the housing stock was built without permits or without regard to building codes…

Recovery will no doubt be long…”

 

MHProNews Analysis in Brief

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has noted before that the nation needs some 8.3 million housing units.  What Harvard’s annual report indicates are an array of other facts that point to tens of millions of possible opportunities for forward thinking HUD Code manufactured housing and modular builders.

 

LawrenceYunNARShort8.3MillionHousingUnitsRisingRentsHousingPricesCuredOnlyByMoreBuilding

Collage by MHProNews.

 

Earlier today, in the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) noted their request to have multi-family housing units approved by HUD.

Manufactured Housing Program Review Addressed by HUD Secretary Carson during Oversight Hearing

Harvard didn’t in this report look at specific issues such as acceptance, financing, political, zoning, or any other reasons why manufactured housing wasn’t performing better than it is. That said, their report uses correct terminology, and is on balance, respectful of the industry. Harvard’s Eric Belksy has been cited before as saying he expected manufactured housing to surpass conventional housing by 2010.  We know that didn’t happen, some of the debatable reasons why are linked in related reports below.

But the bottom line is this.  There are millions of housing units needed now, and millions more that will be needed in the years ahead.  With the proper approaches, the opportunities are available. With hundreds of billions in capital pouring into the U.S. the best time in about 2 decades to tap those opportunities may be right now.

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Related Reports:

Celebrate National Home Ownership Month, with 26 Cool Prefab Cribs, a $1 Billion Dollar Hybrid Mansion, 4 Fun Videos

Evolutionary American Dream, from Tiny Trailer Houses, Mobile Homes, to “Amazing” Modern Manufactured Homes

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Shifting Momentum, Demographics, Women, the 2018 Midterms, and Manufactured Housing

May 23rd, 2018 Comments off

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If one takes candidates at their word – which is never a given once they are elected  – it must be noted that candidates Secretary Hillary Clinton, and businessman, builder and media maven Donald J Trump each made a range of stated policy positions.

 

Last night, the House passed S. 2155, see that report linked below. The bill gives manufactured housing professionals some benefits and relief from Dodd-Frank.  It fulfills part of the 45th presidents pledge to undo what he said was the economic damage wrought by the CFPB and the Dodd-Frank regulatory regime.

 

That bill which has now been passed by the House and Senate would not have been signed had Ms. Clinton been the president, per her own statements.

By contrast, there is every expectation that President Donald J. Trump will sign the measure that provides relief for the industry on the MLO rule and other fronts.

Also last night, President Trump, addressed the conservative, pro-life women’s group gala, the Susan B. Anthony List. He was welcomed like a rock star.

The video posted will reflect several things that industry leaders, investors, and strategists should consider. Note that the female population is slightly larger than that of men. Note to the charts that will follow.

First, the president is repeating a theme, that the group also spotlighted – “promises made, and promises kept.”

Next, the pro-life group is pledging a serious voter mobilization effort for the fall.

Note that the NRA – the National Rifle Association – has made a similar pledge to the president for supporting candidates that he and his party will back. The president and Vice President Mike Pence are signaling that they will be very active on the campaign trail in much of the rest of 2018.

Reuters’ latest generic ballot has now tipped the midterm race slightly ahead for GOP candidates over Democratic ones. It is a tidal shift from the end of last year.

According to Vote Run Lead, exit polls reported that 53 percent of voters in the 2012 election were women.

In every presidential election year from 1980 – 2008 women have outnumbered men in voting Democratic and the same is true for men outnumbering women voting Republican,” says Wikipedia.

The U.S. Census Bureau tells the Daily Business News that, “Voting rates have also historically varied according to age, with older Americans generally voting at higher rates than younger Americans (Figure 4). In 2016, this was once again the case, as citizens 65 years and older reported higher turnout (70.9 percent) than 45- to 64-year-olds (66.6 percent), 30- to 44-year-olds (58.7 percent) and 18- to 29-year-olds (46.1 percent). However, in 2016, young voters ages 18 to 29 were the only age group to report increased turnout compared to 2012, with a reported turnout increase of 1.1 percent. All older age groups either reported small yet statistically significant turnout decreases (45- to 64-year-olds and those age 65 and older) or turnout rates not statistically different from 2012 (30- to 44-year-olds).”

VotingByAgeCensusBureauDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

There is every indication that the president’s popularity is rising among blacks, Hispanics, and women. He already had a strong lock on Evangelicals, and white men.

MHProNews cited the New York Times polling, our own yard sign straw poll of a Florida manufactured home community, and a straw poll of industry professionals at an MHI event as part of our pre-election projections in 2016 that Mr. Trump would do well among manufactured housing residents and professionals.

ChangeInVotingPatternsAgeRaceCensusBureauDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews

It was part of our MHProNews broader analysis. These were among the reasons for our projecting that he could pull off an upset on election night.

There is no other known group or media in manufactured housing that made similar projections. We editorially supported the Trump candidacy, as being better for business, workers, investors, and our industry.

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While the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) paid for two pro-Clinton speakers in the closing days before the 2016 election, the Kovach family and MHProNews supported Donald J. Trump’s candidacy as the best for the industry, small business, and hundreds of millions of Americans. One of those stories ended up on the president’s campaign website, and hundreds of conservative and pro-Trump websites.

 

Washington Insider Info

While MHProNews doesn’t claim much advantage over anyone else that is willing to dig for data and insights.  We have not yet personally met the president, but we do get several daily media and other briefs from the White House.

There are good reasons to believe that baring the unexpected, the GOP under President Trump’s leadership could pull off yet another surprise in the upcoming midterms.

The president himself is predicting it.

When you listen to the enthusiasm of this crowd from last night, does it remind you of the rallies from his campaign? No ‘entertainment’ was needed.

The theme is “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” It’s a powerful message for a campaign.

Step-by-step, President Donald J. Trump has undone in less than 18 months, much of the 8 year legacy of President Barack Hussein Obama. The Heritage Foundation claims over 60 percent of his agenda is already accomplished.  While that statistic might be debatable, what is certain is that his steady and relentless pace is getting voters to respond.  

Look for our Daily Business News latest U.S. economic report, and how that will play into the manufactured housing industry’s calculations. That surprising snapshot will be published later this morning.  We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

Kanye Controversy, Universal Income, Venezuela, President Trump, Manufactured Housing, First Principles, and You

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Largest 50 Manufactured Home Community Operations, per Manufactured Housing Institute, Analysis

April 24th, 2018 Comments off

50LargestManufacturedHomeCommunitiesManufacturedHousingInstiutteMHINationalCommunitiesCouncilNCCLogoTriStarEstatesManufacturedHomeIndustryMHProNews

Sun Communities of Southfield, Michigan, took the top spot with 83,294 home sites under management, followed by Equity LifeStyle Properties of Chicago with 73,700 home sites, RHP Properties of Farmington Hills, Michigan, with 60,163 sites, YES! Communities of Denver with 47,278 sites and MHP Funds of Cedaredge, Colorado, with 31,652 sites.” said the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) National Communities Council (NCC) release to the Daily Business News.

 

These 50 organizations have a total of more than 693,000 home sites with portfolios ranging in size from more than 80,000 sites to just under 3,000,”said the NCC’s statement.

The prior 2017 list was faulted by MHI/NCC members as double-counting some sites listed by RHP and Brookfield Asset Management, then shown as #3 and #5, respectively.

The NCC serves its members by being an effective advocate before public policy makers, the media and the general public,” is another standard line that has drawn the ire of members, who have told MHProNews that MHI (and by implication, the NCC) is “irrelevant” – ineffective at their own agenda – or fails to defend the industry’s members from flawed media reports.

2018Top50ManufacturedHomeCommunitiesListNotMObileHomeParksNCCNationalCommunitiesCouncilManufacturedHousingInsttitueDailyBusinessNewsMHProNEws

MHP Funds, currently #5, is a tandem of well known partners/investors headlined by Frank Rolfe and Dave Reynolds.  While Rolfe has ‘gone quiet’ on critics of MHI late last year, he has not walked back his stinging criticism of MHI in failing to defend the industry, harming all of those in the business.

 

Bob Crawford, president of award winning Dick Moore Housing, which sold its last community fairly recently, has given MHI a “5 out of 10” – a failing grade – in its lobbying efforts.


Jenny Hodge for NCC

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Jenny Hodge photo credit, MHI/NCC.

Jenny Hodge is a talented, well liked and respected member of the MHI team. At one point, she was seen by some as the heir apparent to the “floundering” or worse view held by some regarding their president, Richard “Dick” Jennison.

Jennison has since, say sources, gained the upper hand in the Arlington inner-office struggles.

Hodge’s release said, “With the tens of thousands of communities, we are trying to responsibly identify with this list who the up and coming operators are as we see signs of continued consolidation as the industry evolves into a more mature phase,” said Jenny Hodge, Vice President of Research and Market Analysis for MHI, according to their release.

Hodge added, “We are seeing more interest in manufactured housing from large institutional investors and smaller independent developers as well as individuals who want to live in high-quality affordable housing.”

Each of these statements by Hodge is upon considered examination, accurate.

What her first point obliquely underscore is part of the reason for MHI’s existence, which is to foster consolidation, according to a number of their critics. Thus the spreading nick-name for MHI, “the Monopolistic Housing Institute,” which the “I want them all for myself” statement by Nathan Smith nurtured.  Smith is the former MHI Chairman, a prominent Democratic operative, a NCC member, and a partner in SSK Communities.

 

 

MHProNews & MHI – Who is Telling it Like It Is?

It is natural to believe that your side, whichever side that may be, is the ‘right side.’

That said, it is important to note that MHProNews’ publisher has for over a year offered to publicly meet and debate the issues, concerns, and topics raised by MHProNews and/or MHLivingNews.  MHI has ducked, dodged, detracted and declined to accept the invite.

One must ask, why?

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The MHI statistics are a mix of accurate and inaccurate. This year’s list appears to be clean and controversy free. The same can’t be said about the statistics that claim there are some 38,000 communities.  Their own members dispute that number, and that goes to the heart of what’s wrong with MHI, or NCC.

Frank Rolfe, Dave Reynolds, George Allen, Manufactured Home Community Controversy Continues

This isn’t a critique of Jenny Hodge, who is following orders.”  It is a critique of those who are seen as manipulating and “weaponizing” data and messages to their members.

If they had a good come-back, why don’t they present it?

Rather, they dodge those concerns by what a long-time MHI member told MHProNews is “Razzle Dazzle.” While his example was on a different topic, the principle is the same.

“Razzle Dazzle,” Says Former Manufactured Housing Institute Member

There are concerns by some that HUD Secretary Carson might, might by intent or not, give MHI an apparent win, when there is nothing that MHI has arguably done save keep the industry’s growth at lower levels, by failing to accomplish their own claimed agenda. For more details, the related reports will dot i’s and cross t’s that have as of this writing, gone unanswered by MHI, and which their surrogates have used only “razzle dazzle,” hoping to distract people with smoke and mirrors.

It’s a great industry, with numbers of very fine professionals, but some are holding up the industry from within, as Frank Rolfe and others have said.  “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)

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Related Reports:

Manufactured Housing – Regulatory, Other Roadblocks and Potential Solutions, Up for Growth Research, plus Urban Institute Report Revisited

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SoheylaKovachManufacturedHomeLivingNewsManufacturedHousingIndustryDailyBusinessNewsMHProNews-Submitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com.
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