Morning After

Bloomberg tells MHProNews the Dollar Index, which tracks American currency against that of six of our trading partners, rose 0.3 percent to a seven-week high on the news of President Obama’s re-election, a sign of a weakened dollar. The index hit 80.83 after touching 80.92. Investors are concerned the president will not deal effectively with the looming fiscal cliff crisis, which could send the country back into recession. Andrew Wilkinson of Miller Tabak in New York, says, “What we’re seeing very clearly is a dose of risk aversion. Nothing says that the fiscal cliff is not going to get dealt with, but this is a domino effect stemming from equities, and one of the bricks in place is a stronger dollar.” Challenger Mitt Romney disagreed with the Federal Reserve’s stimulus policy and had said he would replace Ben Bernanke when his term expires. “Obama’s re-election is likely to boost expectations of continued easing by the Fed,” said Junya Tanase at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo. “If it leads to lower U.S. yields and higher stock prices, the bias will be for the dollar-yen to fall.” Meanwhile, MarketWatch says the Fed’s quantitative easing policy promotes the real estate industry because it involves buying securities that support residential and commercial construction. Since home-building is an industry that cannot be outsourced, it has gotten support from the Obama administration, reflected in the stock value increse of various builders and component makers. iShares U.S.Home Construction has risen 133 percent during the last four years versus 69 percent for the S&P. Their commentary suggests the first year of President Obama’s term will be rough economically as investors respond to slowing global economic growth.

(Photo credit: NBCNEWS–President Obama giving his victory speech.)

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