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Housing Economists Projections from NAHB, CoreLogic, Nationwide, and MHVille

February 27th, 2019

 

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There has been scuttlebutt among talking heads in media about a looming recession for months.  People with the ‘right’ credentials are asked, and they soberly express their opinions – which they are entitled to – as to why they think that a recession is looming.  MHProNews has pushed back against that claim editorially, but the question remains, are those sources that warn of recession right or wrong?

 

Depending on the reporter or anchor involved in such an interviews with ‘experts,’ there may or may not be an obvious follow up question to their claims of a looming recession in the U.S.  The media follow up question should go something like this: ‘Given how strong the economy is now, based upon a raft of largely positive economic data, how is it possible that a recession would hit the U.S. so quickly?’

Just a few bullets.

 

1)    A record number of Americans are at work.

2)    Consumer confidence is near record highs.

3)    Small business confidence is also near historic records.

4)    A record number of jobs are open in the U.S.

5)    The Federal Reserve data, plus other economic indicators, suggest that for the foreseeable term, the economy has no apparent risk of recession, barring an unexpected cataclysm of some kind.

 

With those points in mind, let’s turn to a recent report by the OC Register, which interviewed various officials at a recent builders conference.  Their headline reads “Recession Not Likely Before 2021, Housing Economists Say.”

At a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) conference 3 economists weighed in on this specific topic of an alleged looming recession, says the OC Register.  The bullets below are from their recent report.

  • This expansion will come to an end,” said David Berson, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance. But, he added, “the odds of a downturn in the next year are pretty low.”
  • Berson said the next recession probably won’t begin until late 2021 or 2022.
  • Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Irvine-based real estate data firm CoreLogic, said the risk of a possible recession likely will be high toward the end of 2020 and even higher in 2021 — after the next presidential inauguration.
  • After going up 3 percent in 2018, the NAHB predicts single-family home starts will increase 2 percent this year and an additional 4 percent to 928,000 detached houses in 2020.
  • The slowdown in immigration and the weakness in recruiting young Americans to the construction sector has contributed to a labor shortage that persists and continues,” the NAHB’s Dietz said. “Right now … we’re short more than 300,000 construction workers in the U.S.”
  • I think affordability is going to be the key issue (in how) housing advocates view the housing market in 2019,” Dietz said.

These bullets and factoids ought to spell boom times for manufactured housing.  So why is the industry struggling to achieve a mere 100,000 new homes?

Since the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) claims to represent all segments of factory-built housing, do they bear any accountability for the poor results?

How does one explain the bonuses paid to top MHI staffers, give the association’s failure to achieve the 500,000 new home shipments that President and CEO, Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison said could be achieved?

 

 

Road Blocks are Post-Production Ones, Says MHARR

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) routinely cites facts – confirmed by third-party, and HUD research, that HUD Code manufactured housing builders are producing the industry’s best homes ever.  The problems, says MHARR, are coming from the post-production sector.

The issues including zoning and placement issues.

A new report, shown from the linked text-image box below, reflects a publicly undisputed troubling fact.  MHI on several test checks made in recent years by MHProNews has not contacted – much less intervened – several of the zoning and placement challenges that are increasingly impacting manufactured housing.

Why not?

The key phrase from a longer message by an MHI member-affiliate attorney told MHProNews on 2.25.2019, the following, “…For Clearlake [CA] however as a government entity, it should not have different standards for MH than stickbuilt for its code, since the whole idea of federal HUD preemption is to prevent unreasonable discrimination in land use and building standard decisions respecting manufactured housing.”

That report is the first of several related topics that are linked below the bylines and notices.

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SoheylaKovachDailyBusinessNewsMHProNewsMHLivingNewsSubmitted by Soheyla Kovach to the Daily Business News for MHProNews.com. Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.

 

 

Related Reports:

You can click on the image/text boxes to learn more about that topic.

 

Dramatic Reversal, City Passes Urgency Ordinance Effectively Banning Manufactured Homes, Front & Back Stories

Mobile Home Burns, Woman Dies, Details At Ten – Back Story of Mobile Home Fires, Regulatory Facts

 

Democrats, Republicans Agree – “Manufactured Homes Can Play a Vital Role in Easing” the Affordable Housing Shortage

“Washington Post Article Underscores Clear Need for An Independent Post-Production Association”

MHARR Releases Study Recommending Independent Collective Representation for Post-Production Sector

HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Decline Persists – Time For Action Not Excuses

“The Illusion of Motion Versus Real-World Challenges”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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